Development of a Prediction Model for Hospital Closure Using Financial Accounting Data*

Numerous research studies have examined the use of financial accounting data in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Partly due to a lack of available data, however, little work has been done in developing a closure prediction model specifically for hospitals. Using cost reports from the Health Care Financing Administration and a sample of 71 closed hospitals and a matched sample of 71 open hospitals, the current study examines the relationship between 21 financial accounting ratios and hospital closure. Univariate logit results indicate that hospital closure is significantly related to 17 of the 21 ratios one year prior to closure. Results are also presented using a multivariate model, and for the relationships two years prior to closure. The current study provides information helpful to users in identifying financial variables which may be important indicators of hospital closure.     

民营上市公司控制类型、多元化经营与企业绩效

本文将2006年度民营上市公司分为直接上市和间接上市两种类型,考察了所有权与控制权分离程度、多元化经营与企业绩效之间的关系。发现间接上市民营公司所有权与控制权分离程度、多元化经营程度均显著高于直接上市民营公司。多元回归结果表明,直接上市民营公司最终控制人金字塔持股和多元化经营对企业绩效没有显著影响;而间接上市民营公司最终控制人所有权与控制权分离程度和多元化程度越高,企业绩效越低,说明代理问题在此类公司比较突出。所有权与控制权分离程度和多元化指标的交互关系也为此提供了进一步的证据。本文的贡献在于对民营上市公司进行了更为细致的分类,并从动机和行为两方面考察了其所导致的经济后果。研究增进了对我国民营上市公司的认识,对理解民营上市公司控制类型以及多元化经营也提供了新的视角。     

External audit and bankruptcy prediction

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between external auditor characteristics and the likelihood of bankruptcy. We use a sample of US public companies to analyse whether auditor attributes are associated with default. We also test whether the inclusion of such attributes in bankruptcy prediction models improves their predictive ability. We find that firms audited by industry-expert auditors, large audit firms and long-tenured auditors are less likely to default. Firms with higher audit fees are more likely to default. Our results also show that the inclusion of auditor attributes significantly increases the predictive ability of bankruptcy prediction models. This paper contributes to the literature about auditing and bankruptcy prediction. Our results suggest that the auditor attributes can provide predictive signals concerning a default risk and that an external audit can play a relevant role in early warnings of financial distress. Our study also suggests that bankruptcy prediction models can become more effective if they are complemented with audit data. Our results are of interest to market participants, auditors, regulating authorities, banks and other financial institutions that are interested in credit risk assessment.     

Modeling the Audit Opinions Issued to Bankrupt Companies: A Two‐stage Empirical Analysis*

Many observers are dissatisfied with the accounting profession's ability to warn the public of upcoming bankruptcy filings. Since regulators and users tend to treat an unmodified audit opinion as a “clean bill of health,” they do not expect the business to fail in the near future. Research has shown that more often than not, auditors end up letting users down when it comes to predicting bankruptcy filings with audit opinions. Although auditors assert they are not responsible for predicting future events, it is very clear that their opinion decision is evaluated, at least in part, based on events that occur after the audit report date. The interesting and logical next step is to find out how companies exit bankruptcy. Do they liquidate or reorganize? Successful reorganization may, in the end, exonerate auditors and preserve their role as an early warning device. The opinion prediction model developed in the paper introduces a new bankruptcy resolution variable that proxies for the auditor's prognosis of the ultimate disposition of the soon‐to‐be‐bankrupt company. Using a sample of bankruptcy filings between 1982 and 1992, we find that auditors do not seem to be able to predict filings or resolution. Our tests of bankruptcy resolution support what auditors have been arguing for years: that they are not clairvoyant with respect to a client's future.     

Portfolio Interrelationships and Financial Performance in the Context of European Firms

The linkage between the interrelationships of a firm’s lines of business and corporate financial performance has been the subject of extensive research in the strategy field. Yet very little research has examined this key relationship within firms operating in Continental Europe. This study investigates firm relatedness and its further relationship to accounting and market-based performance measures within a sample of European firms. The results confirm a positive and significant relationship between resource-based relatedness and firm performance for German, Swiss and Austrian multi-business firms. Thus, this study provides further evidence that resource-based relatedness of large diversified manufacturing companies can help explain variability in corporate financial performance across different institutional environments.     

银行破产的财务因素分析:金融危机冲击下美国银行业的实证

由次贷危机引发的金融危机对美国银行业造成数以百计的商业银行破产,为研究商业银行破产提供了绝佳的样本。本文收集了受危机冲击的美国破产的商业银行样本以及对比样本,研究美国商业银行破产的财务影响因素。本文在用单变量检验方法检验备选财务指标有效性的基础上,建立了加权Logit模型,利用模型贡献度指标分析财务因素的显著性和影响程度。实证结果表明,不仅资产回报率、资本充足率、净贷款占比和金融衍生产品投资对银行破产具有显著影响,资产回报率和净贷款占比的变化率也具有显著作用;而且资产回报率和资本充足率的影响远远大于其他因素。值得特别提出的是,尽管金融衍生产品被广泛认为是这次金融危机的主要原因之一,实证结果显示金融衍生产品投资对样本银行的稳健性具有正向影响。     

Variable precision rough set theory and data discretisation: an application to corporate failure prediction

Since the seminal work of Pawlak (International Journal of Information and Computer Science, 11 (1982) 341–356) rough set theory (RST) has evolved into a rule-based decision-making technique. To date, however, relatively little empirical research has been conducted on the efficacy of the rough set approach in the context of business and finance applications. This paper extends previous research by employing a development of RST, namely the variable precision rough sets (VPRS) model, in an experiment to predict between failed and non-failed UK companies. It also utilizes the FUSINTER discretisation method which neglates the influence of an ‘expert’ opinion. The results of the VPRS analysis are compared to those generated by the classical logit and multivariate discriminant analysis, together with more closely related non-parametric decision tree methods. It is concluded that VPRS is a promising addition to existing methods in that it is a practical tool, which generates explicit probabilistic rules from a given information system, with the rules offering the decision maker informative insights into classification problems.     

基于模糊聚类和模糊模式识别的企业财务预警

在回顾国内学者关于企业财务预警模型研究的基础上,提出了一种新的预警模型--基于模糊聚类和模糊模式识别模型.利用该模型对训练样本进行模糊聚类,计算最优聚类中心,对待估样本所属类别进行模糊模式识别.通过对40家沪市上市公司进行实证分析,取得了较好的预警效果.最后针对模型存在的问题提出进一步的研究方向.     

Neural Networks: A New Tool for Predicting Thrift Failures*

A neural network model that processes input data consisting of financial ratios is developed to predict the financial health of thrift institutions. The network's ability to discriminate between healthy and failed institutions is compared to a traditional statistical model. The differences and similarities in the two modelling approaches are discussed. The neural network, which uses the same financial data, requires fewer assumptions, achieves a higher degree of prediction accuracy, and is more robust.     

考虑多维效率的上市公司财务困境预警研究

已有的财务困境预警研究一般基于财务指标，或在财务指标基础上引入单一效率指标，而多维效率指标能够更加全面有效地反映不同行业、不同资产规模的上市公司整体状况，从而对上市公司财务困境产生更好的预警效果。本文从经营效率、财务效率、融资效率和人力资本效率这四个维度分别提出相对应的投入产出指标体系，并采用数据包络分析对上市公司各个维度的相对有效性进行评价。在此基础上，将得到的多维效率指标与财务指标相融合，建立上市公司财务困境预警模型。为了验证所提出模型的有效性，采用支持向量机、人工神经网络和决策树这三种常用的财务困境预警技术，并基于不同的财务指标体系对我国上市公司进行实证研究。结果表明，考虑多维效率指标的上市公司财务困境预警模型能够有效提高预测准确度。     

定向增发抑价分解研究——基于双边随机边界分析的新视角

针对定向增发新股存在价格溢出现象,本文首次引入双边随机边界模型探究定向增发高抑价的形成机理,发展了一个新的定向增发抑价分解模型,将定向增发抑价分解为一级市场折价效应和二级市场溢价效应,并对2007-2017年度内已完成定向增发新股的沪深两市A股上市公司进行了实证检验,结果表明：定向增发新股的发行价格与二级市场交易价格均被高估,存在价格泡沫;折价效应与溢价效应均对定向增发抑价施加了显著的影响,但溢价效应是导致定向增发高抑价的主导因素;溢价效应对定向增发高抑价的影响程度在国有企业、大股东全认购、牛市以及信息透明度较低的子样本中更显著。基于中国本土文化拓展了抑价分解理论,结论更符合中国股市实情,为定向增发抑价现象的后续研究提供了理论指导与方法支撑。     

Exploiting Technological Indicators for Effective Technology Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Predictions

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) play increasingly important roles for contemporary business, especially in high‐tech industries that conduct M&As to pursue complementarity from other companies and thereby preserve or extend their competitive advantages. The appropriate selection (prediction) of M&A targets for a given bidder company constitutes a critical first step for an effective technology M&A activity. Yet existing studies only employ financial and managerial indicators when constructing M&A prediction models, and select candidate target companies without considering the profile of the bidder company or its technological compatibility with candidate target companies. Such limitations greatly restrict the applicability of existing studies to supporting technology M&A predictions. To address these limitations, we propose a technology M&A prediction technique that encompasses technological indicators as independent variables and accounts for the technological profiles of both bidder and candidate target companies. Forty‐three technological indicators are derived from patent documents and an ensemble learning method is developed for our proposed technology M&A prediction technique. Our evaluation results, on the basis of the M&A cases between January 1997 and May 2008 that involve companies in Japan and Taiwan, confirm the viability and applicability of the proposed technology M&A prediction technique. In addition, our evaluation also suggests that the incorporation of the technological profiles and compatibility of both bidder and candidate target companies as predictors significantly improves the effectiveness of relevant predictions.     

Ethical Issues that arise in Bankruptcy

Bankruptcy is designed to give the debtor another chance after a financial failure, and it is often an option that is both more ethical and more efficient than liquidation. We address some basic issues, such as whether Chapter 11 bankruptcy itself is ethical and what elements help one to decide if a particular bankruptcy is ethical. There are many chances for unethical acts during bankruptcy, such as the ethics of a firm that files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy yet has sufficient assets to meet its financial obligations, or the often exorbitant fees that bankruptcy professionals are allowed as well as the apparent partiality demonstrated in some bankruptcy courts.     

系统风险的会计决定:企业财务风险、经营风险、系统风险的时变关联

新企业会计准则的颁布有力推进了我国金融工具信息披露制度建设,但是到目前为止,研究者对会计信息和上市公司系统风险的关系还不是很清楚.本文提出了新的经济理论模型用于研究财务风险、经营风险和系统风险的动态关联.主要结论:一、财务杠杆和经营杠杆以乘子的形式放大了无杠杆条件下的企业系统风险,这一结论在时变的条件下仍成立;二、理论证实了无杠杆条件下的企业系统风险来源于公司净利润-流通市值比率、销售增长率和平均价格增长率的变动;三、财务风险和经营风险间存在一个权衡,例如经营风险高的公司,将会选择一个较低的财务风险,使得公司有一个相对合理的系统风险.因此,会计风险披露制度的推进可以为投资者提供更多和更好的有关公司风险的信息.     

A mixed-methods study of CEO transformational leadership and firm performance

This mixed-methods study explores the relationship between CEO transformational leadership and firm performance relying exclusively on secondary data. We used a random sample comprising of 42 CEOs of publicly-listed US and European companies. We evaluated their transformational leadership drawing upon media sources which were content analyzed to create individual CEO profiles. These profiles were then given to a panel of three judges who rated the CEOs on their transformational leadership style. We obtained the firm performance data from Thomson Datastream. Our results showed significant associations between intellectual stimulation and inspirational motivation respectively, and different financial performance indicators. We also observed a tendency of positive relationships between individualized consideration and firm performance. These findings remained significant after controlling for company baseline performance, firm size, CEO tenure, and company location. Our findings largely support the positive role of CEO transformational leadership in shaping firm performance.     

Boundaries of the business model within business groups

Scholars have sought various ways to find out how financial performance of the firm can be affected by its business model (BM). However, to date academic literature has focused attention on the “firm” as a unit of analysis without clearly defining the boundaries of the reporting entity to which the BMs refer. The aim of this paper is to investigate what are the boundaries of the BM of the affiliated-group companies and how the degree of independence of BMs is measured within the business group. The contribution of the paper is in using the BM concept to expound and criticise the assumptions in economic analysis and accounting standards that groups of companies are economic units that optimise economic income of the group as a whole and that the financial statements of individual subsidiaries, sub-groups and the group as a whole report the value generated by the group.     

Ownership concentration,contestability, family firms,and capital structure

This study analyses the distribution of power among the several blockholders of a firm and the identity of those blockholders as a determinant of firm leverage. Using a sample of 694 firms from 12 Western European countries, our results support a negative relationship between ownership concentration in the hands of the main blockholder and firm leverage. Moreover, we detect that the presence of a second and third large shareholder (beyond the first blockholder) has a significant positive effect on the leverage ratio. In addition, the results show that contestability in family firms plays a more relevant role. Finally, we show that family firms do have significant impact on firm leverage level, and this impact varies depending on the legal framework and institutional environment. In our main sample the results show family firms negatively affect market leverage, supporting the theory that family firms are more averse to an increase in the debt level due to the risk of bankruptcy and financial distress as a result of having an under-diversified portfolio. In contrast, the opposite effect is found in the sample that excludes the United Kingdom. This last result cannot be explained by agency theory, given that family businesses are those that suffer less from Type I agency problems. This result suggests either some difficulty in financing their investments by issuing new equity or the need to use debt as a signal of the quality of its investments. Our results prove to be stable against a battery of robustness tests.     

Does business model affect accounting choices? An empirical analysis of European listed companies

Financial accounting research increasingly includes business model (BM) constructs, but the ability of financial reporting to capture BM characteristics has not been verified. This study empirically explores the links between BMs and accounting choices by clustering a sample of 103 European listed companies according to an innovative, nonlinear algorithm (self-organizing map) that uses pertinent industrial, strategic, governance, and financial variables to uncover different dimensions of a BM. The authors investigate accounting choices (accounting measurement, accounting treatment, and disclosure level) by companies that belong to the different identified BMs. The analysis of the relations between different company BMs and their accounting choices indicates no significant connections, which offers empirical confirmation of the criticisms regarding the inability of financial reporting to represent (or even consider) a company’s BM. The results suggest further attempt to capture BM in financial reporting, which requires regulators to establish accounting standards that acknowledge the value creation processes of an entity and incentivize managers to represent those processes.     

The Impact of Leadership Characteristics on Corporate Performance

We identify three attributes of a firm that exert significant positive impact on stock return performance of companies. Specifically, quality of management, financial soundness and quality of products/services indicators are critical for successful financial performance. We then discuss the leadership characteristics that are necessary to positively affect these attributes. We believe this information provides insights into the type of leadership characteristics that result in improved financial performance. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于信息披露文本的上市公司财务困境预测:以中文年报管理层讨论与分析为样本的研究

本文采用文本分析方法研究了中文年报管理层讨论与分析传递的管理层语调能否提供财务困境预测的增量信息、能否提高预测的准确性以及文本内容的信息价值,主要结论为：（1）管理层语调确实为财务困境预测提供了新的信息,能提高财务困境模型的拟合程度和预测能力;（2）管理层语调是对定量财务数据的重要补充,而且这些信息并没有在市场交易价格中得到充分反映;（3）负面语调比净语调具有更高的信息价值;（4）财经文本情感或语调的分析应以基于相关来源财经文本的情感词词典为基础,而直接引入其他领域成熟词典的效果较差。