Implications of immigration for apportionment

Around the time of the US decennial censuses, a renewed interest emerges in the method for apportioning the US House of Representatives. Various methods may show slight variations in illustrative apportionments, with biases favoring less populous states, but the general pattern remains. Definition of certain groups as included in the apportionment counts and coverage levels for selected groups have been debated in the judicial system, legal journals, and government. Unauthorized residents, and, sometimes, lawful immigrants, are often singled out for exclusion. The legal issues are complex, and illustrating the effects of these groups' inclusion is problematic due to poor measures, nationally and geographically. Using approximate distributions, these analyses suggest this next apportionment might differ slightly under various scenarios such as ones excluding either recently entered unauthorized residents or all unauthorized residents. Allowing for net authorized immigration greater than official estimates for the 1990s might have some effect for large states.     

Immigration to the U.S.: the unfinished story

Annual totals of new immigrants and refugees in the US may now be up to the record highs of over a million immigrants counted in 6 years between 1905 and 1914. Since 1979, legal immigrants have averaged 566,000 a year (570,009 in 1985), newly arrived refugees and asylees approved have averaged 135,000, and the "settled" illegal immigrant population is growing by up to 1/2 million a year, according to some estimates. 1/2 of illegal immigrants are persons who entered the US legally but then overstayed the terms of temporary visas. Immigration and Naturalization Service apprehensions of illegal aliens, projected at a record 1.8 million for fiscal year 1986, indicate a sharp increase in illegal border crossers, driven by Mexico's and Central America's mounting population and economic pressures and lured by the prospect of jobs with employers who through a loophole in US immigration law can hire illegal aliens without penalty. The Census Bureau estimates that net immigration now accounts for 28% of US population growth and will account for all growth by the 2030's if fertility stays at the current low 1.8 births per woman. Public opinion strongly favors crubs on illegal immigration and legalization of illegal aliens long resident in the US, and in 1986 Congress enacted legislation to reduce illegal immigration to the US. Asians and Latin Americans now make up over 80% of legal immigrants and Latin Americans comprised 77% of illegal immigrants counted in the 1980 census. Asians far outstrip Latin American immigrants in education, occupational status, and income and might be expected to assimilate in the same manner as earlier immigrant group did. Hispanic immigrants so far appear to favor cultural pluralism, maintaining their own culture and the Spanish language. Research in California indicates that recent Hispanic immigrants (legal and illegal) have helped preserve low-wage industries and agriculture. Illegal immigrants appear to draw more on public health and education services than they pay back in taxes. With or without immigration reform, population and economic pressures in Mexico and the Caribbean Basin ensure that the numbers of people seeking to enter the US are only likely to increase.     

Empirical characteristics of legal and illegal immigrants in the USA

We combine the New Immigrant Survey (NIS), which contains information on US legal immigrants, with the American Community Survey (ACS), which contains information on legal and illegal immigrants to the USA. Using an econometric methodology proposed by Lancaster and Imbens (J Econ 71:145–160, 1996) we compute the probability for each observation in the ACS data to refer to an illegal immigrant, conditional on observed characteristics. These results are novel, since no other work has quantified the characteristics of illegal immigrants from a random sample representative of the population. Using these conditional probability weights on the ACS data, we are able to uncover some interesting facts on illegal immigrants. We find that, while illegal immigrants suffer a large wage penalty compared to legal immigrants at all education levels, the penalty decreases with education. We also find that the total fertility rate among illegal immigrant women is significantly higher than that among legal ones, in particular for middle and higher educated women. Looking at the sector of activity, we document that the sectors attracting most illegal immigrants are constructions and agriculture. We also generate empirical distributions for state of residence, country of origin, age, sex, and number of legal and illegal immigrants. Our forecasts for the aggregate distribution of legal and illegal characteristics match imputations by the Department of Homeland Security.     

Nativity,duration of residence and the life course pattern of extended family living in the USA

Recent changes in US immigration policy anddomestic welfare policies affecting immigrants haveled to concerns that families will face greaterpressure to provide for extended family members.Extended family households are important resources fornew immigrants to the USA and an integral part of theadaptive strategy of immigrants. This paper examinesthe competing roles of duration of residence in theUSA, aging and changes over time in explainingincreases in extended family living between 1980 and1990. The results from a pooled sample of 1980 and1990 Census data indicate that recent arrivals aremore likely to share households with extended kin butit is older immigrants who face an increasedlikelihood of such coresidence over time. Multinomiallogistic regression analysis demonstrates that thelife course pattern of coresidence remains whenchanges in socioeconomic status are controlled. Theresults suggest that policy changes limiting publicfunds available to new arrivals will have a largerimpact on families sponsoring older family members.     

Immigrants' welfare use and opportunity for contact with co-ethnics

In this article we examine the relationship between immigrants' welfare use and their social capital, using the 1990 census. We measure community social capital using contact with co-ethnics and co-ethnics' economic inactivity, and examine the use of AFDC and SSI in two subpopulations: single-mother families and elderly units. Major findings are that the effects of social capital differ between immigrant single-mother families and elderly units; the effects of social capital differ between the young-at-arrival elderly and the old-at-arrival elderly; and the process of AFDC use is similar for immigrants and for natives, whereas the process of SSI use is more complicated for immigrants than for natives.     

美国纽约州华人的空间分布研究

本文研究了美国纽约州1990年和2000年华人的空间分布情况,运用Are GIS中空间自相关的热点分析技术对华人的空间聚集情况进行了定量计算。计算结果表明,以两倍的标准差衡量,纽约县、国王县和皇后县内存在显著的空间聚集区域,和1990年相比,2000年的华人聚集区域明显扩大,但三个热点区域内的华人数量大致相当。由于“9．11”事件中遭到毁坏的世贸中心离纽约唐人街非常近．我们预计以唐人街为中心的的华人聚集区会有所缩减,一些华人会迁移到周边县以寻求更好的生存空间。     

The effect of immigrant admission criteria on immigrant labour-market characteristics

The skill levels of immigrants entering the USA has declined in recent decades; however, most immigrants to the USA continue to be admitted on the basis of family contacts, without reference to labour-market characteristics. This situation has given rise to a debate about the criteria on which immigrants are admitted or excluded. I examine how the relative skill levels of immigrants admitted under different criteria vary by country of origin, those criteria being the possession of highly-valued skills and family connections. Using data from the Immigration and Naturalization Service, Borjas' 1987 model is tested. The results show (a) that the relative skill levels of the two groups do indeed differ by country of origin, and (b) the pattern by country of origin is consistent with the Borjas predictions. The policy implication is that the effects of changing admission criteria will differ by country of origin, but in a predictable way.     

A comparative analysis of immigrant skills and their utilization in Australia,Canada, and the USA

We compare literacy test scores and their impact on wage and employment outcomes of Australian, Canadian, and the US immigrants. Overall, we find little to distinguish the skills of immigrants to these three countries, although there is some indication of gains at the lower end of the distribution among Australian immigrants arriving after the mid-1990s. Relative immigrant wage returns to literacy are, however, substantially higher in the USA, which we argue reflects language-skill complementarities, as opposed to more efficient skill utilization or unobserved productivity characteristics.     

俄罗斯人口危机的成因及俄学者对中国劳动移民的综合评价

引进外来移民是俄罗斯摆脱人口危机的现实途径之一。对引进中国劳动移民的利弊问题,俄学者对此看法各异,伴随着俄经济形势的好转,大多数俄学者肯定了中国移民对俄罗斯经济发展的作用,并提出形成完善的移民政策、引入适当数量的移民、避免非法移民流入及民族间冲突是解决俄罗斯人口危机和保证国家安全的有效方法。     

U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable?

A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:

1. that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
2. that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
3. that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.

The report's low growth scenario projects future population size that is more reassuring than alarming: 264 million in 2000, rising to 288 million in 2030, and falling to 266 million in 2080. Thus, in ninety years the United States would still have 20 million more people than now. While some fear that such slow growth will lower United States influence and bring labor shortages and an aging population, the nation's quality of life would be less at risk with a population of 266 million than with one approaching the one-half billion projected by the Census report's high estimates.     

Race,wages, and assimilation among Cuban immigrants

This study uses data from the 1980 and 1990 Census and the 1994–2000 Current Population Survey to examine the determinants of earnings among male Cuban immigrants in the U.S. by race. Nonwhite Cuban immigrants earn about 15 percent less than whites, on average. Much of the racial wage gap is due to differences in educational attainment, age at migration, and years in the U.S., but the gap remains at almost 4 percent after controlling for such factors. Nonwhite Cuban immigrants also have lower returns to education than whites. A comparison to white, non-Hispanic U.S. natives indicates that nonwhite Cubans not only earn less initially than white Cubans on arrival in the U.S., but also do not significantly close the racial earnings gap over time.     

Dual Citizenship Rights: Do they Make More and Richer Citizens?

In the 1990s, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Brazil passed dual citizenship laws granting their expatriates the right to naturalize in the receiving country without losing their nationality of origin. I estimate the effects of these new laws on naturalization rates and labor market outcomes in the United States. Based on data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. censuses, In find that immigrants recently granted dual nationality rights are more likely to naturalize relative to immigrants from other Latin American countries. They also experience relative employment and earnings gains, together with drops in welfare use, suggesting that dual citizenship rights not only increase the propensity to naturalize but may also promote economic assimilation. The effects of dual citizenship on improved economic performance, if mediated through naturalization, are consistent with American citizenship conferring greater economic opportunities.     

Asian and Pacific population targets

2 population targets for the Asian and Pacific regions were established in 1981-82: 1) by the Asian Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development at Beijing, China to attain 1% population growth rate for the Asian region by the year 2000, and 2) by the 3rd Asian and Pacific Population Conference at Colombo, Sri Lanka, to attain replacement level of fertility by the year 2000. In an attempt to ascertain whether these targets can be achieved and/or related, the Population Division of the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) prepared population projections in which the 2 targets are achieved. These projections were prepared by aggregating the total population of member countries. When net reproduction rate (NRR) equals 1 (replacement level fertility) it will lead to a stable population with a growth rate of zero. In the short-term a population with replacement level fertility will continue to increase if it has a young age structure due to previous higher levels of fertility. Some projections for the period 1980-2005 are: 1) population growth rate will decrease from 1.78% to 1.05%, 2) total fertility rate will decrease from 3.63-2.11, 3) male life expectancy will increase from 59.8-67.3, and 4) infant mortality rate will decrease from 67.3-34.5. For the ESCAP region, a target of NRR of 1 would be easier to achieve than a growth rate of 1%. The UN projects the total population of the region to be 3,382,000,000 in the year 2000. If the NRR can be lowered to 1 by then, however, the total population would be 3,342,000,000 and if the growth rate can be reduced to 1% by the end of the century the resulting population would be 3,300,000,000. Major demographic benefits will be attained in terms of the age structure of the population if a 1% growth rate is achieved; the proportion under age 15 was 37.1% in 1980 but will be 27.2% in 2000 with a dependency ratio of 48.8 compared to 70.8 for 1980.     

Criteria for selecting a suitable method for producing post-2000 county population estimates: A case study of population estimates in Illinois

We compared 2000 county population estimates for Illinois against 2000 census counts. Administrative records (ADREC) and ratio correlation (Ratio-CORR) methods were used to produce two sets of controlled county estimates for 2000; a third set represented an average of the estimates reached using these methods. Another set using the ADREC method was not controlled to any estimate. Also, the 2000 estimates were adjusted for undercount in the 1990 census. We compared performance of these methods with the performance of two naive models: (i) do nothing and (ii) constant growth rate. ADREC estimates were more accurate than estimates from the Ratio-CORR or Average method in terms of Mean Absolute Percent (MAPE) or weighted MAPE. Undercount adjustment in general improved the accuracy of the estimates for all three methods. A top-down or bottom-up approach worked equally well. As a single method, ADREC performed best.     

Immigrants assimilate as communities, not just as individuals

The literature on the economic assimilation of immigrants generally treats them as atomistic individuals assimilating in a largely anonymous labour market. Here, we argue that immigrants assimilate as communities, not only as individuals. The longer the immigrant community has been established, the better adjusted it becomes, and the more the host society comes to accept that ethnic group. Using data from a 5% sample of the 1980, 1990 and 2000 US censuses, we find that the stronger is the tradition of immigration from a given source region, the better are the economic outcomes for subsequent immigrants from that source.     

Recent Trends in Coverage of the Mexican-Born Population of the United States: Results From Applying Multiple Methods Across Time

The accuracy of counts of U.S. racial/ethnic and immigrant groups depends on the coverage of the foreign-born in official data. Because Mexicans constitute by far the largest single national-origin group among the foreign-born in the United States, we compile new evidence about the coverage of the Mexican-born population in the 2000 census and 2001–2010 American Community Survey (ACS) using three techniques: a death registration, a birth registration, and a net migration method. For the late 1990s and first half of the 2000–2010 decade, results indicate that coverage error was somewhat higher than currently assumed but had substantially declined by the latter half of the 2000–2010 decade. Additionally, we find evidence that U.S. census and ACS data miss substantial numbers of children of Mexican immigrants, as well as people who are most likely to be unauthorized: namely, working-aged Mexican immigrants (ages 15–64), especially males. The findings highlight the heterogeneity of the Mexican foreign-born population and the ways in which migration dynamics may affect population coverage.     

Foreign and undocumented workers in California agriculture

In November 1986, the United States Congress passed the most sweeping reform of federal immigration laws in more than two decades. The major objective of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 is to curtail the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States. But the Act contains controversial provisions to assure agricultural producers who rely most heavily on illegal immigrants to harvest perishable crops that they will not suffer unfairly from changes in U.S. immigration laws. These special provisions for agriculture rest on two assumptions that heretofore have received little attention from researchers: (1) that agriculture now relies heavily on undocumented workers to harvest perishable crops, and (2) that growers hire undocumented labor because legal farmworkers are not available to work at wages growers can afford to pay. This paper presents preliminary findings from a study of the role of undocumented workers in California agriculture. The findings cast some doubt on the assumptions that undocumented workers are employed mostly in harvesting perishable crops and that growers hire illegal aliens because legal workers are not available. The analysis focuses on California because one-half of all undocumented immigrants in the United States are believed to live in this state.     

The 1990 U.S. census: how good is good enough?

The 1990 US census is likely to be the most accurate in the nation's history, but it may miss 2 or 3 million people, most of them poor and many of them black or Hispanic. Because the population census is the basis for political apportionment and determines the allocation of a growing share of federal funds to localities and public programs, undercoverage is of great concern to cities, states, and the groups most affected. The statistical methods developed to measure the extent of undercounting in the census have become increasingly reliable, but the official census count has never before been adjusted on the basis of these methods. This article describes plans for the 1990 census and examines a growing controversy over adjustment for an undercount.     

Undocumented workers in the labor market: an analysis of the earnings of legal and illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States

This paper studies the differences in earnings between Mexican legal and illegal immigrants in the United States. The analysis includes a cross-sectional examination of the wage differences between legal and undocumented workers as well as a longitudinal analysis examining the impact of legalization on the earnings of previously-undocumented workers. It is shown that the average hourly wage rate of male Mexican legal immigrants in the United States was 41.8% higher than that of undocumented workers while female legal immigrants earned 40.8% more. Though illegal immigrants have lower education and English proficiency, and a shorter period of residence in the United States, than legal immigrants, it is shown that differences in the observed characteristics of legal and illegal immigrants explain only 48% of the log-wage gap between male legal and illegal workers and 43% of the gap for women. An analysis of undocumented immigrants legalized after the 1986 U.S. immigration policy reform shows significant wage growth in the four years following legalization. These gains are due mostly to the change in legal status itself, not to changes in the characteristics of immigrants over time. Received: 7 July 1997/Accepted: 16 March 1998     

Will They Stay? Foreign-Born Out-Migration from New U.S. Destinations

Immigrants living in new destinations in 1995 were 2.5 times more likely to have migrated to another labor market by 2000 as immigrants living in traditional places. The researchers look at two competing explanations for immigrants’ differential internal migration patterns, namely that immigrants prefer areas with relatively large nativity concentrations which provide them with social support versus immigrants are target earners who prefer robust labor markets with strong employment growth and high wages. Utilizing confidential Census data for 1990 and 2000, the authors develop new destination classifications for 741 labor markets that take into account the differential growth and composition characteristics of 24 Asian, Latin American and Caribbean immigrant groups living in those markets. The empirical analysis of labor market out-migration indicates that immigrants do not see internal migration as an either/or choice between economics and social support but prefer residence places that allow them to maximize both conditions.