“无核世界”构想及其区域性实践——基于东南亚无核区的分析

"无核世界"构想是一种要求在限制核武器扩散的基础上,对已有核武器进行严格控制并逐步销毁,最终彻底消灭核武器,使国际社会回归到没有核武器的世界的政治主张。半个多世纪以来,"无核世界"构想在塑造全球政治安全环境、培育和平理念、推动核裁军方面发挥了重要作用。虽然当前"无核世界"构想尚难以实现,但在地区层面,无核区在一定意义上实现了"无核世界"构想。东南亚无核区是冷战后核扩散形势严峻的亚洲地区建立的首个无核区,对缓和亚洲地区的核扩散形势起到了积极的作用。本文认为,在国际政治现实下,无核区的建立必将成为实现无核世界的重要路径选择。     

Commensurate Security: An Alternative Defense Paradigm

Commensurate security is proposed as a national defense paradigm that will compete increasingly with those of nuclear deterrence and arms control for the attention of the peoples and governments of Europe. The paradigm includes the concepts of threat assessment, unprovocative armaments, territorial defense, civilian resistance, and restructuring of military forces to provide better utilization of a nation's defense resources. It addresses the common weakness of deterrence and arms control, their reliance on nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. Nations' adoption of commensurate security will stimulate the emergence of a composite paradigm integrating aspects of current models but increasingly focused on defense of homeland and avoidance of offensive threat.     

Specifics in a Positive Approach to Peace

An approach to peace is called "positive" here if, in addition to appearing as a realistic means toward peace, it is inherently attractive and morally unobjectionable. Positive approaches include drastic reduction of nuclear weapons (bilateral if possible, but unilateral if necessary), total elimination of first-strike nuclear weapons, a wholehearted no-first-use policy in actions as well as in words, humanization of our own diabolical image of the U.S.S.R., cultivation of realistic empathy and global consciousness, drastic reduction of fear appeals by the peace movement, and cultivation of realistic hope. However, some "negative" actions are also well worth considering as paths to peace: retention of approximately 5% of our present nuclear strength, retention of "adequate" conventional strength, realistic criticism of the U.S.S.R., occasional use of fear appeals, and guarding against unrealistic hope. As a model of positive reasoning and a source of useful references, an imaginary dialogue is presented in which a peace activist answers, in a factual and two-sided way, a number of highly skeptical hawkish questions. Learning to answer such questions effectively may add to both immediate effectiveness and long-term hope within the peace movement.     

Australian University Students' Views of the Nuclear Arms Race: Comparative and Qualitative Analyses

Australian university students' views of the nuclear arms race were analysed in two studies. A sample comparison study used Nuclear Arms Race Questionnaire (NARQ) and Position on Nuclear Weapons (PNW) scales to compare university students' views with those of high school students and community groups. University students' views were more strongly anti-nuclear than middle income and Middle European migrant groups, but not more than high school student and church member groups'. Females' attitudes were more strongly anti-nuclear than males. A qualitative analysis of ten university students' formulations of the arms races problem and Australia's involvement revealed the complex dimensions of perceived relationships between global and national interests and personal nuclear issues. Students' solutions were directly related to their formulations of the major aspects of the arms race problem, with six students who represented the nuclear problem in terms of superpower conflict, seeing individuals as powerless to influence solutions. Quantitative trends are interpreted in light of the varied representations of the problem and the association of students' generally anti-nuclear attitudes with lack of involvement in the peace movement.     

Image and Action in Peace Building

That images of the future motivate behavior in the present is a theory with both socio-historical and psychological evidence. Due to the difficulty of generating positive images of the future in the nuclear age, in contrast to the Utopian imagery of earlier ages, an experimental workshop was developed by Boulding and Ziegler to help people imagine positive futures—specifically, to image a future world without weapons. The workshop procedures are described, and three case examples are given of imaging groups with widely different background characteristics. Participants were able to create positive imagery in the workshop setting, and their imagery varied according to the background of the participating group. The paper explores the relationships among the intensity of the imaging experience, its saliency for the imager, and the action readiness of the imager; and it raises questions about the role of imaging workshops in the peace movement and the kinds of research that might make such workshops more effective.     

Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications

An arms race exists when a country’s propensity to acquire arms is influenced by a potential adversary’s military spending. When evaluating the impact of economic policies towards the developing world, e.g., foreign assistance programs, it is important to identify if an arms race exist between dyads of recipient nations. The reason is that if the impact of the policy is favorable to the country deemed to be “causing” an arms race, then the policy will not only increase the amount of weapons of the recipient country, but of the other as well. This will increase the probability of war if it is positively related to the stock of weapons of these adversaries.Consequently, this paper investigates the direction of prima facie casual relationship between the military expenditures of potential adversaries in the developing world by using parametric causality tests. We conclude that some of these country’s expenditures seem to reflect an arms race while other proposed dyads seem not to be adversaries, i.e., their expenditures are independent and therefore seem to be governed by other than an external threat.     

安全结构视野下的朝核问题走向

冷战结束以后核危机之所以在朝鲜半岛反复发生、僵持不决,主要与半岛安全结构的失衡有关。处于弱势地位的朝鲜希望借助核武器恢复安全结构的均衡,而处于强势地位的美国则希望保持既有优势,甚至一度希望改变朝鲜体制,完全颠覆现有安全结构。中、韩作为朝核问题中的两个重要当事国,并不希望看到朝鲜拥有核武器,也不愿看到朝鲜的崩溃,是安全结构问题上的维持现状者。正是这种安全结构上的利益分歧与博弈,使得朝核问题成为地区安全局势中的一个持久热点。     

论日本拥核图谋与无核政策的历史因素

作为迄今唯一遭受核打击的二战战败国,日本处在美国核保护伞和日美安全同盟之下,虽有一直存在的拥核政治图谋和核技术研究进程,却没有核武器被制造出来的事实,处在核技术威慑的长期状态中。美国严控日本制造核武器的国际高压态势以及日本国内民众反核运动的不断发展,共同保证了日本的核技术威慑原则的长期性和安全性,也是日本和平核能利用的理性之路。日本从核技术威慑层面走向无核状态,是一段任重道远的政治进程。日本不必、不能也不会拥有核武器,对无核世界建设和人类可持续发展将会具有更加积极的政治影响。     

Distinguishing between Positive and Negative Approaches to Peace

The distinction between positive and negative goals is important in the psychology of peace because it affects the way people respond to the threat of nuclear war. An orientation toward the negative goal of avoiding war has been a priority because of the great danger of the nuclear threat and also because negative means and goals, being primarily reactive, more concrete, and more oriented to short-term objectives than positive goals, are more conducive to action. However, there are unfortunate consequences of too exclusive a concentration on avoiding war: inadequate conceptualization of a positive, more easily maintained goal of peace, and increased anxiety resulting in poor-quality thinking about ways to achieve peace. Choosing positive means of working toward peace is consonant with peace as a positive goal, and it compensates for some of the disadvantages of an exclusive focus on avoiding a nuclear confrontation.     

Toward an interdisciplinary model of barriers to nuclear arms control

The nuclear arms race is a powerful phenomenon with political, technical, historical, economic, and psychological dimensions. Most analyses concentrate on the political, technical, or historical dimensions to the neglect of the economic and psychological. This article seeks to correct this neglect, arguing that serious barriers to arms control arise from economic and psychological forces.Richard W. Mansbach critiques the article from the perspective of a political scientist. The authors rebut.     

Peace Fair or Warfare: Educating the Community

Psychologists who wish to promote peace and justice must investigate how to mobilize the political will of the people in order to improve the policy making of the elite. This is the second study in a program of action research designed to investigate ways of encouraging people to accept personal responsiblity for influencing governmental foreign policy. It reports an attempt to create an ideal educational experience—a peace fair—that would provide the set of conditions that the first study suggested were essential for the acceptance of personal responsibility. The fair was successful in convincing individuals that they personally could do something to help prevent nuclear war. However, it revealed a serious weakness in the current peace movement—an inability to portray convincingly a course of national action that could promote peace and justice. This is an essential component for efficient action. Suggestions are made for the next round of research.     

Immigration,terrorism, and the economy

In this paper, we look at the interaction of terrorism with immigrants’ quality of life (measured by the foreign-born unemployment rate and globalization level) for OECD countries, and its impact on GDP per capita. We find strong evidence that GDP per capita is adversely affected by domestic terrorism. The magnitude of this effect is also substantial: at the sample mean, a one-standard-deviation increase in the number of domestic incidents is found to decrease GDP per capita between 5.7 % and 7.8 % of the sample average depending on the specification used. These results contrast with previous research which finds that transnational terrorism primarily affects these economic indicators. We find strong evidence that when we factor in the interaction of the foreign-born unemployment rate with either type of terrorism, an increase in the foreign-born unemployment rate decreases GDP per capita. On the policy front, we show that peace is valuable, and OECD countries will benefit by adopting policies to reduce the problem of terrorism. We also find that an increase in the foreign-born unemployment rate has a large negative impact on GDP per capita and policies that close the gap between foreign-born and native-born unemployment rates (for example, those aimed at reducing discrimination against immigrants) help the economy.     

六方会谈：决策树模型视角下的“猎鹿困境”

朝核问题是国际核不扩散体系中最令人关切的核心问题之一。朝核问题的症结在于怎样解读和执行朝鲜半岛无核化,在于美国的军事存在及敌视政策与朝鲜安全诉求的负相关性,在于现存国际法致使捍卫国家安全的正当性和维护国际安全的法理性二者相悖,而消弭这一悖论的纳什均衡点难以寻求。作者以决策树模型和猎鹿博弈理论,论证了解决朝核问题的机制——六方会谈的实质是购买朝鲜弃核。本文认为,该机制本身孕育了致使其难以成功的困境,并进而得出朝鲜难以在现存国际体系下和平弃核,以朝鲜半岛中立化机制内化掉朝核问题未尝不是最佳出路。     

The transfer of arms and the diffusion of democracy: do arms promote or undermine the “third wave”?

The post–Cold War world has witnessed a proliferation of countries governed by democratic rule. Consequently, optimism has arisen about the prospects for the spread of freedom along with democratic peace and prosperity. Along these lines, many democratic countries have made the active promotion of democracy an explicit goal and a condition for third world countries’ assistance. However, such intentions may be threatened by the ever-present arms trade. Not only do arms transfers play a key role in the foreign policies of many democratic countries, but many developing countries continue to purchase arms from abroad at a steady rate. From the perspective of the developing recipients, this study seeks to empirically assess the impact of the arms trade on democratization. To this end, this paper utilizes an exploratory data technique, locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS) to examine data for developing countries between 1982 and 1992. By exploring graphically the patterns and distributions revealed by these indicators, the implications of the international arms trade for the spread of democracy are assessed.     

全球核权力体系与印度的战略选择

国际核权力系统的最大特征就是有核国家和无核国家之间权力的不平衡，在这样一个权力不平衡的系统中，印度为了维护它的国家利益，曾采取过三种战略选择。裁军努力受挫、核安全保障失效以及国际核不扩散压力逐渐增大，这三大因素结合在一起促使印度走向核武器化并追求公开核威慑之路。在印度于1998年5月进行公开核试验、掌握核权力之后，全球核权力体系还将会影响到印度对核权力的进一步追求。     

试析美朝在核危机中的话语权之争

朝核危机产生于20世纪90年代。时至今日,美朝除了在国家利益、安全观念与政治互信等方面存在分歧外,还在朝鲜半岛核问题与朝鲜核问题、核能和平利用与反核扩散问题、横向核扩散与纵向核扩散问题等方面存在分歧与争夺。双方斗争的目的是为了置对方于不利的道义位置,以便在与对方打交道时增强自己的话语地位,为维护自身国家安全利益争取主动。     

The efficiency of crackdowns: a lab-in-the-field experiment in public transportations

The concentration of high-frequency controls in a limited period of time (“crackdowns”) constitutes an important feature of many law-enforcement policies around the world. In this paper, we offer a comprehensive investigation on the relative efficiency and effectiveness of various crackdown policies using a lab-in-the-field experiment with real passengers of a public transport service. We introduce a novel game, the daily public transportation game, where subjects have to decide, over many periods, whether to buy or not a ticket knowing that there might be a control. Our results show that (a) concentrated crackdowns are less effective and efficient than random controls; (b) prolonged crackdowns reduce fare-dodging during the period of intense monitoring but induce a burst of fraud as soon as they are withdrawn; (c) pre-announced controls induce more fraud in the periods without control. Overall, we also observe that real fare-dodgers fraud more in the experiment than non-fare-dodgers.     

Perceptions of Benzodiazepine Dependence Among Women Age 65 and Older

A phenomenological study explored whether older women who are chronic benzodiazepine users identified themselves as dependent, how dependence was perceived, and how meanings and understandings shaped experiences of benzodiazepine use. Self-reported benzodiazepine dependence was associated with being unable to reduce use or a desire to discontinue use and reliance on benzodiazepines to remain comfortable and able to handle daily life. Themes included: (a) benzodiazepine dependence is similar to dependence to diabetes or blood pressure medications; (b) dependence is distinctive from addiction/abuse; (c) addiction/abuse is perceived as worse than dependence; and (d) concerns of addiction/abuse result in low-dose benzodiazepine use.     

Neighbors, nuisances and noxious releases: Community conflict and environmental hazards in the atomic city

Drawing from in-depth interviews with over 120 respondents, participant observation, and document analysis, we examine differential perceptions of environmental harms in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, home of a U.S. Government nuclear facility. The Oak Ridge Reservation has a 50-year history of nuclear weapons production and a poor environmental record. In the 1980s, a series of environmental revelations occurred and in 1989, the entire Oak Ridge Reservation was placed on the Environmental Protection Agency's Superfund list. This sparked heated debates within the community over environmental hazards and ultimately led to conflict and dissension. We analyze residents’ perceptions of environmental harms and highlight the salient variables contributing to community dissension, including conflicting levels of government trust, length of community residence, employment, race/ethnicity, and environmental health/illness.     

Deterrence,utility, and rational choice

The nuclear balance of terror is examined from the perspective of utilitarian ethics. A superpower's decision about whether or not to practice nuclear deterrence against its rival is analyzed as a choice, under conditions of uncertainty, between (i) a smaller risk of bringing about a graver disaster for mankind (i.e., nuclear war), and (ii) a greater risk of bringing about a lesser disaster for mankind (i.e., domination by the rival superpower). It is argued that the expected utility and maximin principles cannot very plausibly be applied to problems with this structure, but that a novel principle of rational choice can be. This principle is defended, and is used to reach the conclusion that nuclear deterrence is, from the utilitarian viewpoint, permissible.A remote ancestor of this paper was presented to the Jacob Marschak Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Mathematics in the Behavioral Sciences, at UCLA, in the spring of 1976. I am grateful to the members of that group, and to Robert M. Adams, for their helpful comments. My work was partly supported by a Regent's Faculty Research Fellowship from the University of California.