Heuristics for prioritizing pair-wise elicitation questions with additive multi-attribute value models

Additive value models are widely used in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis. Direct elicitation of the value model preference parameters can impose excessive cognitive burden on the decision maker. Indirect techniques that employ pair-wise questions have been proposed for lowering the elicitation effort. In all practically relevant problems, more than a single question needs to be answered for arriving at a sufficiently precise outcome. The selection and ordering of questions affects the number of answers required for ranking the decision alternatives. However, evaluating all possible questions and answers is intractable due to the search space being, in the worst case, of factorial size. This paper develops heuristics for prioritizing pair-wise elicitation questions based on (1) necessary preference relations, (2) extreme ranks attained by the alternatives, (3) pair-wise preference indices, and (4) rank acceptability indices. We also introduce three metrics for assessing quality of a question prioritization heuristic. Numerical results allow us to identify a subset of heuristics that score well on our metrics in a variety of problem settings. This conclusion was validated in a real-world experiment where 101 subjects answered pair-wise questions to rank 10 mobile phone packages evaluated in terms of four criteria.     

A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty,duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.     

The lean improvement of the chemical emissions of motor vehicles based on preference ranking: A PROMETHEE uncertainty analysis

The motor vehicle has provided mobility and individual freedom for millions of people. However, vehicles embody the dilemma of contemporary industrialisation in that the environmental costs of automobility are equally large. This non-country specific study undertakes a PROMETHEE-based preference ranking of a small set of motor vehicles based on constituents of their exhaust emissions. As a model of an interested party's preference ranking of the motor vehicles, the subsequent uncertainty (sensitivity) analysis considered here, relates to what minimal (lean) changes would be necessary to a vehicle's emissions so that their preference ranking is improved. For a particular manufacturer, it can identify the necessary engineering performance modifications to be made to improve their perceived consumer based ranking. This is compounded by a further consideration of different levels of importance conferred on the criteria (vehicle emissions) and analogous analyses undertaken. The visual elucidation of the results rankings and changes to criteria values, offers a clear presentation of the findings to the interested parties.     

Note: A note on the production and inventory systems taking account of time value

This paper deals with the optimal inventory decisions taking account of time value by applying the concept of the present value method, and modifies the bounds for the optimal cycle time described in Chung et al. (Production Planning & Control, 1998, 9, 580–584). A modified algorithm to compute the optimal cycle time is developed to improve the paper of Chung et al. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the algorithm discussed in this paper.     

A dynamic perspective on the resilience of firms: A systematic literature review and a framework for future research

This study aims to answer the following research question: how is the resilience of firms defined in the business and management field? In doing so, we answer recent calls for research about a more thorough conceptualisation of the resilience of firms and its definition. We conducted a systematic literature review of 66 selected papers published between 2000 and 2017. By means of inductive content analysis, we analyse the definitions of ‘resilience’ and elaborate a novel conceptual framework that introduces a dynamic perspective on the resilience of firms. The proposed framework overcomes existing definitional fragmentation and raises awareness of the temporal dimension in the conceptualisation of the resilience of firms. We contribute to extant business and management literature on the resilience of firms by proposing a model that articulates two main paths for explaining organisational resilience, i.e. absorptive resilience and adaptive resilience paths. We also identify a set of key capabilities needed to be successfully resilient at the different stages of the two paths.     

Dynamic Product Positioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Effect of Fees for Musical Performance Rights on the Commercial Radio Industry

This article predicts how radio station formats would change if, as was recently proposed, music stations were made to pay fees for musical performance rights. It does so by estimating and solving, using parametric approximations to firms' value functions, a dynamic model that captures important features of the industry such as vertical and horizontal product differentiation, demographic variation in programming tastes, and multi‐station ownership. The estimated model predicts that high fees would cause the number of music stations to fall significantly and quite quickly. For example, a fee equal to 10% of revenues would cause a 4.6% drop in the number of music stations within 2 1/2 years, and a 9.4% drop in the long run. The size of the change is limited, however, by the fact that many listeners, particularly in demographics that are valued by advertisers, have strong preferences for music programming.     

多人从经验中学习模型研究：基于信息和分析方法不对称视角

当前,日益复杂且动态变化的形势和环境对多人从过往事件中不断学习、积累应对经验、快速迭代应对措施等提出了更高的要求。然而,在多人从经验中学习时,常出现由于不同个体间不了解彼此掌握的信息和会使用的分析方法而导致的莫衷一是、讨论进程拖沓、无法及时达成结论等现象。本文将个体间不了解彼此掌握的信息和/或会使用的分析方法的现象概括为“不对称”,并采用理论构建的方法,聚焦于多人从经验中学习的过程,以“信息”和“分析方法”为维度,构建基于信息不对称性和分析方法不对称性的二维矩阵,提出多人从经验中学习时会存在信息不对称且分析方法不对称、信息不对称且分析方法对称、信息对称且分析方法不对称,以及信息对称且分析方法对称四种情况,并指出信息和/或分析方法的不对称性会降低多人从经验中学习的效率,构建了基于不对称性视角的多人从经验中学习过程机制模型。随后,从“意愿”和“能力”两个方面,提出了降低信息和分析方法不对称性的实践方法,建立了降低不对称性的多人从经验中学习的实践方法库。本文针对多人从经验中学习时,由于信息和/或分析方法的不对称性而导致的问题进行探索,并为提升学习效率提供了理论基础和实践指导。     

多人从经验中学习模型研究：基于信息和分析方法的异质性视角

多人从经验中学习时,常常出现由于不同个体掌握的信息和分析方法不同,而导致的学习效率低的现象。基于时空理论,本文分析了多人从经验中学习时的信息异质性和分析方法异质性,并构建了信息结构异质性和信息内容异质性的桥梁结构,以及分析方法集。本文还对导致信息和分析方法错误的因素和对应的解决方法进行了阐述。进一步地,本文构建了基于信息和分析方法的异质性视角的多人从经验中学习过程机制模型,认为在可用的资源的制约下,多人可以通过“清洗”和“清除”信息和分析方法来提高信息真实性和分析方法可用性,通过“寻找”提高信息和分析方法的完整性,以达到学习目标的具体要求,从而提升学习效率,并列举了一些实践工具。本文从信息和分析方法的异质性视角出发,对多人从经验中学习时可能遇到的问题和解决方法进行探索,为提升学习效率提供理论依据和实践建议。     

Developing Measures for Assessing the Organizational Impact of Information Technology: A Comment on Mahmood and Soon's Paper

In a recent study, Mahmood and Soon [26] identified and operationalized a set of variables that can be potentially impacted by information technology. The lack of factor analysis to verify the dimensionality of different variables is a notable omission in the study. This paper describes and employs the limited-information factor analysis approach and the minimum average partial criterion for testing the unidimensionality of different variables in the Mahmood and Soon study. While reconfirming the construct validity of eight variables, our results question the unidimensionality of two original variables. Further testimony is provided in favor of our results by citing previous research studies.     

中国设计产业与工业的互动关系研究——基于独立设计机构专利数据的相关前沿理论验证

以中国独立设计机构的授权专利为研究对象,通过中国专利数据检索,对中国设计机构专利授权数量时间序列进行统计和预测,结合工业增加值数据,运用相关分析、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,初步验证Porter钻石模型的服务需求理论和Grossman的设计驱动的内生增长理论在中国的适用性.研究结果表明,1985年至2009年中国独立设计机构专利迅速增长,Porter钻石模型的服务需求理论在中国得到部分支持,但Grossman的设计驱动的内生增长理论在中国没有得到证实,设计产业还不是驱动工业增长的力量.     

A Methodology for Risk Analysis Based on Hybrid Bayesian Networks: Application to the Regasification System of Liquefied Natural Gas Onboard a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit

This article presents an iterative six‐step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty.