风险视角下银行产品创新绩效评价模型

分析商业银行产品创新绩效水平对推动银行创新发展,提升竞争力尤为重要。考虑到商业银行产品创新过程中存在的风险,将信用风险作为非期望产出,纳入银行产品创新绩效评价体系,根据创新收入与风险之间是否存在同步关系,分别对非期望产出采用弱可处置性和强可处置性设置,构建基于数据包络分析模型（DEA）的固定相关模型（FCM）和变动相关模型（VCM）,用于商业银行产品创新绩效评价。此外,通过构建目标函数的产出优化模型,对FCM和VCM模型下的商业银行产品创新的目标收入进行估计。通过对两种模型下商业银行产品创新目标收入增加值进行分解,对银行风险管理水平进行讨论。最后,将提出的改进的DEA分析框架应用于中国上市商业银行进行案例分析,验证了模型构建的可行性,为商业银行产品创新绩效及相关问题提供模型参考。     

我国商业银行非利息收入及其影响因素分析

随着我国资本市场的发展和银行经营业务的扩展,非利息收入在银行总收入中的比重逐年增加。本文以我国12家商业银行2000年至2007年的数据为样本,探讨商业银行非利息收入的构成及其影响因素。研究结果表明,总体上非利息收入的大小与银行的规模、存款占总资产的比重和员工人数与存款的比例显著正相关,与银行的净资产收益率无关;手续费收入仍是我国商业银行非利息收入的主要来源;但国有商业银行与非国有商业银行无论是非利息收入的总量还是构成,均存在显著的差异。     

基于银行-资产双边网络模型的系统性风险及投资策略研究

受近几年的国际金融危机及金融全球化的影响,对金融系统的系统性风险的研究已成为国内外学者的关注热点。考虑到当前基于"银行-资产-银行"间接传播渠道的相关研究相对匮乏,本文基于银行-资产双边网络模型来分析银行系统性风险。首先,使用中国47家上市银行2018年的资产负债表数据构建了中国银行系统的双边网络模型,研究分析各类资产遭受冲击时外部冲击、降价出售效应及银行所持有的各类资产占银行总资产的比例对银行系统性风险的影响。然后,引入系统性冲击方式,通过设置具有不同属性的两大类资产并生成四种冲击事件来构建银行的投资策略模型,从资产视角探讨银行最优的投资策略。研究发现,外部冲击与降价出售效应这两个产生系统性风险的影响因素在一定区间值时会产生叠加效应,使银行系统性风险急剧增加;五种资产类中,贷款类资产对外部冲击最敏感;分析发现在各类资产冲击下都未倒闭的所有银行的资产组合具有一定的相似性;进一步研究发现银行系统中存在着最优的资产组合,使得银行在稳定的同时能获取最大收益,并且资产负债比越大的银行其风险承受能力越强,从而可以选择更激进的投资策略来追求高收益。     

Risk-based decompositions of the meta profit efficiency of Taiwanese and Chinese banks

This study measures the profit efficiencies of Taiwanese and Chinese banks with the assumption that both types could operate under the metafrontier. To consider the risk consideration of banks, we include equity capital as a quasi-fixed input and develop the risk-based measures of the meta Nerlovian profit efficiency. We further decompose meta profit efficiency and gap into technology and allocative efficiencies and gaps. We use 34 Taiwanese banks and 70 Chinese banks in 2011 to empirically measure profit efficiency and its decompositions. Empirical results show that the Chinese state-owned banks perform the best in meta profit efficiency, followed by Chinese joint-equity banks and Taiwanese state-owned banks. These three types of banks are performing better than the other types of banks in Taiwan and China. We also find that Taiwanese private banks perform better in profit and technical efficiencies versus Chinese city banks.     

“三重底线”下中国商业银行经营效率及其影响因素分析

银行业在我国经济中扮演着重要的角色。在现今可持续发展理念的倡导下，单一维度的银行效率评价已经难以适应时代的需要。为此，本文基于"三重底线"视角分别构建了中国商业银行经济、社会与环境效率指标，通过SBM-DEA模型对中国商业银行的"三重效率"进行了测算分析，并运用SBM-Pearson分析法初步揭示了中国商业银行三重效率间的关系，之后再利用SBM-SUR计量模型对影响中国商业银行三重效率的因素作了进一步的探究。研究结果表明：（1）中国商业银行中股份制商业银行与城市商业银行在经济效率、社会效率上表现突出，而国有商业银行表现不佳。但是在环境效率方面，国有商业银行后来居上表现强劲。（2）中国商业银行间三重效率并不存在相互冲突，社会效率、环境效率与经济效率之间有着显著的正相关关系，但是并没有发现社会效率与环境效率之间存在显著的联系。（3）在经济效率方面，资产规模、运营年限、银行类型以及资产回报率均对其有着显著的正向影响；不同的银行类型对社会效率有着不同程度的显著影响；在环境效率方面，资产规模与银行类型也对其影响显著。     

商业银行税务风险评估的实证分析

随着我国金融行业的飞速发展,商业银行所面临的税收压力越来越大,商业银行的管理层开始日益关注税务风险。税务风险有2种表现形式,即税负过重和税收处罚。根据15家上市商业银行2008～2010年的财务数据,构建了税负预警模型;采用税负对比法,对商业银行的税务风险进行了评估。分析结果表明,商业银行的营业税税务风险变化不大,但是企业所得税税负过重的商业银行有增多趋势。同时通过回归分析得出:营业收入、营业支出、营业税及附加、企业所得税对盈利综合税负有不同程度的影响。     

Banks’ Risk Endogenous to Strategic Management Choices

Use of variability of profits and other accounting‐based ratios in order to estimate a firm's risk of insolvency is a well‐established concept in management and economics. We argue that these measures fail to approximate the true level of risk accurately because managers consider other strategic choices and goals when making risky decisions. Instead, we propose an econometric model that incorporates current and past strategic choices to estimate risk from the profit function. Specifically, we extend the well‐established multiplicative error model to allow for the endogeneity of the uncertainty component. We demonstrate the power of the model using a large sample of US banks and show that our estimates predict the accelerated bank risk that led to the subprime crisis in 2007. Our measure of risk also predicts the probability of bank default both in the period of the default but also well in advance of this default and before conventional measures of bank risk.     

基于DEA方法的中国商业银行综合效率的研究

根据数据包络方法(DEA)的非阿基米德模无穷小C2R模型,结合中国大陆商业银行的投入和产出的特点,建立了综合考虑银行盈利能力与风险控制能力的投入产出指标体系和中国商业银行综合效率的评价模型.基于4家国有独资银行样本、14家国有银行和股份制银行的混合样本两种情况,分别评测出了各家银行综合效率值.给出了低效率银行的人员数、固定资产净值、营业支出,所有者权益、机构个数等投入的冗余率和营业收入、新增存款总额、新增贷款总额、资本收益率、不良贷款率等指标的产出不足率.论文的创新和特色一是运用不良贷款率反映银行产出的质量,改变了现有研究忽略贷款质量差异的弊端.二是通过定量分析找出具体银行效率不高的真正原因,有针对性地提出了提高银行效率的宏观对策和具体对策.三把14家国有银行与股份制银行合并起来进行评价和比较,又显示出了两种银行组织方式下银行间的真实差距.     

Why aren't managers concerned about occupational stress?

Abstract

To explain the rarity of workplace stress management interventions, it is thought that managers are not concerned with the risks of occupational stress to health and job performance. Some writers consider either (1) deficiencies in theory, and/or (2) deficiencies in methodology to be the cause of this apparent lack of concern. The aim of this paper is to illustrate another perspective on this issue; that of risk perception. Two perspectives on risk perception are discussed; the psychometric view and the cultural view. The psychometric view suggests that senior managers may underestimate the risks associated with stress. The cultural view suggests that managers may consider stress management to be inappropriate, since individuals, not organizations, should be responsible for coping with stress. Both perspectives indicate that very few managers may consider stress to be a risk that should be actively managed by the organization. The associated disciplines of risk management and particularly risk communication are discussed to suggest ways to overcome lack of managerial interest in stress management.     

Why aren't managers concerned about occupational stress?

To explain the rarity of workplace stress management interventions, it is thought that managers are not concerned with the risks of occupational stress to health and job performance. Some writers consider either (1) deficiencies in theory, and/or (2) deficiencies in methodology to be the cause of this apparent lack of concern. The aim of this paper is to illustrate another perspective on this issue; that of risk perception. Two perspectives on risk perception are discussed; the psychometric view and the cultural view. The psychometric view suggests that senior managers may underestimate the risks associated with stress. The cultural view suggests that managers may consider stress management to be inappropriate, since individuals, not organizations, should be responsible for coping with stress. Both perspectives indicate that very few managers may consider stress to be a risk that should be actively managed by the organization. The associated disciplines of risk management and particularly risk communication are discussed to suggest ways to overcome lack of managerial interest in stress management.     

Does managerial ability influence the quality of financial reporting?

The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of managerial ability on the quality of their financial reporting. Using a large bank sample from nine different countries and for the time period 2004–2010, we expect that bank earnings quality and accounting conservatism increase with more able managers that disclose more accurate earnings and who report higher information about banks’ future earnings and cash flows.The results confirm that managerial abilities play a significant role in the quality of financial reporting in banks, and that capable bank managers are less likely to manage earnings opportunistically. This study is timely and relevant given the recent emphasis on earnings quality of banks over the last few years, and the criticisms of managerial abilities after the financial crisis. The evidence from this study can help standard-setters and regulators to better understand the business practices and accounting behavior of banks in the light of managerial abilities.     

存款保险制度、影子银行与银行系统性风险

为了防范系统性银行危机的发生,我国于2015年推出了存款保险制度,该制度能否有效降低我国银行系统性风险是关乎金融稳定的重要现实问题.以我国存款保险制度的实施为契机,本文基于16家上市银行2010年第四季度~2017年第二季度的面板数据,首先,将金融机构间的关联网络和金融机构市值纳入到系统性金融风险的测度中,进而探讨我国存款保险制度对银行系统性风险的影响及其作用渠道.结果表明存款保险制度的实施显著提高了其他商业银行(中、农、工、建以外的商业银行)的系统性风险;存款保险制度主要通过影子银行渠道增加其他商业银行的系统性风险.本文的研究对于我国强化影子银行的宏观审慎管理、引入基于银行系统性风险的差别存款保险费率设计和完善系统重要性金融机构的评定,具有一定的借鉴意义.     

中小商业银行公司治理机制与经营绩效关系的实证分析

理论和实证研究证明,良好的公司治理对金融体系稳健运行有十分重要的作用.商业银行公司治理的研究和实践既是银行业改革的迫切要求,也是银行业改革的核心内容之一.本文用36家商业银行2005年的截面数据,对股权结构、董事会、监事会和高管人员薪酬激励等四个治理机制与银行绩效之间的关系进行了实证研究.结果表明,国有与非国有控股商业银行绩效不存在显著差异,第一大股东对银行绩效的影响并不显著,但外部大股东能显著地提高银行绩效.董事会与监事会规模与银行绩效正相关,但独立性难以得到保证.此外,高管人员薪酬激励不能改善银行绩效.     

长期资产减值信息有用性的实证检验——来自银行借款契约角度

本文实证检验了长期资产减值信息在企业与银行借款契约中的作用.研究发现,长期资产减值反映了企业未来盈利的预期,长期资产减值越多的企业未来业绩越差;长期资产减值信息为银行所接受,长期资产减值越参的企业获得的银行借款总量越少;且银行更倾向用短期借款代替长期借款,以降低风险;所有权性质、地区性质对长期资产减值信息的有用性存在影响,民营企业、东部地区企业长期资产减值信息的有用性更强;借款契约期限的差异、减值信息质量的差异也会影响长期资产减值信息的有用性.     

基于copula的追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价模型

基于追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价问题是指当有银行作为先行者介入一个项目时,后续的其它另一个银行作为追随者银行需要将先行者银行的信用风险和所要参与投资的企业项目风险综合加以考虑、从而独立判断项目投资的总体风险大小并进行投资决策。由于任何一家银行都只能熟悉某一些领域、某一些地区、某一些国家的项目,这就导致追随者银行在无法充分掌握项目信息时,需要以先行者银行的信用风险大小为参照物之一来推断企业项目的总体风险,这不仅仅对投资和贷款业务开展较晚的例如中国邮政储蓄银行这样的商业银行有着重要现实意义,而且对所有商业银行的投资活动都有重要的指导意义。通过先行者银行信用风险与项目风险反映企业项目总体风险,本研究建立了基于Copula函数的追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价模型。本文主要的创新与特色是通过确定先行者银行的信用风险R_F与项目风险R_p的函数关系,进而确定企业项目总体风险R_T,解决了追随者银行所要测算企业项目风险的问题。总体风险模型的稳定性检验表明,在95%的置信水平下,对追随者银行来说,不论多大样本,其所要投资项目的总体风险中的先行者银行信用风险R_F与所要投资的项目风险R_p的重要程度分别为W₁=0.428、W₂=0.572。     

基于分块极大值模型的商业银行操作风险计量研究

尽管高级计量法由于具有计算精确和节约监管资本等优点而被多数商业银行所青睐,但对于采用哪一种方法来刻画低频高危的操作风险尾部数据却没有一致认识。本文根据巴塞尔委员会关于操作风险计量的原则,采用分块极大值方法和概率加权矩参数估计法,对中国商业银行1990—2009年间的操作风险数据进行了实证。从图形检验和数值检验结果来看,该模型估计的参数具有较高的拟合优度,能够较好地拟合操作风险极端值的尾部分布,为商业银行计量操作风险资本提供了较高的参考价值。     

基于专利地图理论的中国银行业商业方法专利研究

将专利地图和专利分析相结合,探讨了商业方法专利在中国银行业发展的背景,并对中国银行业商业方法专利进行了详尽的检索。然后,从专利管理图视角对中国银行业专利发展现状、内外资银行商业方法专利发展、商业方法专利申请人数变化以及商业方法专利在内外资银行间的分布状况进行了深入的研究。从专利技术图视角对中国银行业商业方法专利的发展领域、IPC分类以及商业方法专利的授权情况进行了深入的分析。最后,归纳出中国银行业商业方法专利的发展现状。     

宏观压力测试下商业银行零售信贷产品PD模型预测研究

通过将宏观经济指标与商业银行零售信贷产品住房按揭PD构建宏观变量预测模型，得到预测显著的GDP、CPI、HPI等三个宏观经济指标，再观察其不同滞后阶数组合VAR模型的AICC值，最终选取宏观经济因子高阶项构建回归方程和进行压力测试。研究结果发现：从施压时点开始，不同压力情景下PD均开始缓慢增长趋势，其中重度情景下PD增幅最大。说明使用宏观经济因子的阶乘能更好捕捉上述特征，PD预测模型能准确描述风险传导过程，此举可有效帮助商业银行加强零售信贷领域风险管理。     

How Software Project Risk Affects Project Performance: An Investigation of the Dimensions of Risk and an Exploratory Model*

To reduce the high failure rate of software projects, managers need better tools to assess and manage software project risk. In order to create such tools, however, information systems researchers must first develop a better understanding of the dimensions of software project risk and how they can affect project performance. Progress in this area has been hindered by: (1) a lack of validated instruments for measuring software project risk that tap into the dimensions of risk that are seen as important by software project managers, and (2) a lack of theory to explain the linkages between various dimensions of software project risk and project performance. In this study, six dimensions of software project risk were identified and reliable and valid measures were developed for each. Guided by sociotechnical systems theory, an exploratory model was developed and tested. The results show that social subsystem risk influences technical subsystem risk, which, in turn, influences the level of project management risk, and ultimately, project performance. The implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed.     

商业银行运营效率的综合评价与敏感度分析

对商业银行的盈利能力与服务水平进行综合评价,提出了新的评价模型,并结合安徽某商业银行的实例对评价方法进行了演示,所做的敏感度分析有助于决策者改进综合效率.