The Fallacy of Generalizing from Egg Salad in False-Belief Research

Geraerts et al. (2008)   reported that misleading individuals with false beliefs about having gotten sick on egg salad in childhood can reduce the probability of subsequently consuming egg salad. They concluded that their results "… have important implications for people's food and dieting choices…" (p. 752). We argue that their conclusion represents a fundamental generalization problem. We report new findings that, together with other recent studies, data on disgust and the fact that hard boiled eggs produce a chemical associated with rotten food, suggest that Geraerts et al.'s success in reducing individuals' interest in eating egg salad is likely restricted to less appealing foods that are less frequently consumed. Because of potential applicability of their results to public health and well-being, and the more general applicability of the false-feedback paradigm to legal cases, it is important to accurately limit these conclusions and generalizations.     

Men who work at age 70 or older

The federal policy on older workers has shifted from the encouragement of early withdrawal from the labor force to the encouragement of continuous participation in the labor force. In this light, it is instructive to investigate the backgrounds of elderly people who work at age 70 or older. This article presents the findings of a study, using data from the 1993 Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old Study, that investigated the effects of health, economic conditions (net worth, employer-provided pensions, and supplemental medical insurance coverage), education, and spouse's work status on the probability of working among men aged 70 or older. The study addressed the probability of working, the probability of working fulltime and of working part-time, and the probability of being self-employed and of being employed by others. Implications for policy are discussed.     

Direct Perception and Symbol Forming in Positioning

Harreà's positioning theory posits discourse as the concrete context within which selves are produced, but accentuates the dissociation between the physical engagement in a conversation and 'location' in a conceptual interpersonal space. The thesis that positioning involves selective attention, and that selected positions express ongoing transformations in the hearer's experiential realm is expanded here initially by reference to Gibson's direct-perception theory. The concepts of indexical and symbolic affordances are introduced to describe the function of utterances in setting parameters for hearer's behavioural and social-relational engagement, respectively. This implicates a construct of 'psychological value' (i.e., the affective intensity and valence of elements of experience), as proposed by C. G. Jung. The essay draws attention to the idea of symbol forming as a process whereby abstract self/world relations are articulated in one's actions and thoughts, and in which context the 'reception' of others' actions and utterances as having positioning implications may be understood.     

The Effect of Family Structure on Female Labor Participation – Empirical Analysis based on the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

Using 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study baseline data, this paper examines the effects of family structure on labor force participation. In consideration of the possible endogeneity provoked by family structure, we constructed regression models with instrument variables. Intergenerational co‐residence significantly decreases women's labor force participation by 14%, while it has no effect on men's labor supply. One potential reason for this result is residential circumstance. As it is custom to live with elderly parents in multi‐generation families in China, adult women often share the burden of all housework and are responsible for elderly care; thus, cohabiting with parents seems to have negative effects on female labor participation. On the contrary, Chinese culture dictates that men do not spend as much time as women on housework, thus, the probability of working in the labor market is not influenced by residential circumstance. If women were freed from housework responsibilities, the implication is that their participation in the labor force would increase.     

Representability of Ordinal Relations on a Set of Conditional Events

Any dynamic decision model should be based on conditional objects and must refer to (not necessarily structured) domains containing only the elements and the information of interest. We characterize binary relations, defined on an arbitrary set of conditional events, which are representable by a coherent generalized decomposable conditional measure and we study, in particular, the case of binary relations representable by a coherent conditional probability.     

The association of work-related worries and anger with home-related worries, and anger at others at home

Studies have found anger at others at home (AOH) to be associated with job-related stress, and work-to-home interference (WHI). These findings suggest that WHI may mediate the translation of stress about work into AOH. This study investigates the associations of work-related worries, and anger about work, with worries about home and AOH. WHI is investigated as a mediator of the translation of job worry into AOH, and spillover of moods between work and home. Gender, age and job control are investigated as moderators of those associations. Data are from a telephone survey of employed residents of Toronto, Canada who are living with others. The results suggest that WHI mediates the spillover of worries between work and home, but not the spillover of anger or the translation of job worries into AOH. The moderation analyses suggest that WHI increases AOH only among people with low job control.     

现代汉语中的词位和词位变体

词在语音、词形、语法、意义上的差异所体现的性质、所产生的结果是不一样的,有的属于同一词的不同表现状态,有的则属于不同的词,前者是同一词位的各个变体,后者是不同的词位。现代汉语的词位变体主要有以下四种类型:(1)词的语音形式的变异所形成的词位变体,这种词位变体往往呈现互补分布状态,是一种条件变体;(2)词的书写形式的变异所形成的词位变体,这种词位变体并不呈现互补分布状态,是一种自由变体;(3)词的语法形式的变异所形成的词位变体,这种词位变体主要是通过词的重叠和词内素序的变化来实现的,也是一种条件变体;(4)词的意义上的变异所形成的词位变体,这种词位变体的意义上的变异当然是有限制的,即变异前后的两个或几个意义有着密切的联系,也是一种条件变体。     

连接纽带抑或依附工具：转型时期中国行业协会研究文献评述

基于国家-社会关系的视角,在目前对当代中国行业协会的主流研究中,公民社会理论强调国家对社团干预的放松和市场经济的发展对协会的影响,法团主义则强调国家对协会的控制与合作。通过对文献的回顾发现,还有一类重要的研究--依附理论的视角,没有得到中国研究者的足够重视。依附理论的视角关注在宏观的国家-社会关系讨论之下权力的实际运作对行业协会的影响,认为除了国家对社团的控制之外,国家对经济的干预也影响了企业家的行为和他们的集体行动意愿。由于国家权力的保留和市场的不完全,企业和行业协会形成了对政府的依附关系,而行业协会仍然镶嵌于国家机构内部,成为依附于地方政府的工具,而不是企业与政府之间的连接纽带。当代中国的行业协会涉及到国家、市场和企业多方的互动关系和复杂的制度环境,依附理论的视角重新定义了行业协会的角色,提供了个体研究的途径和原有研究中未被重视的其他解释变量,为我们进一步了解中国行业协会的发展环境和影响因素构建了可行的分析框架。     

Leadership in Social Work: A Case of Caveat Emptor?

This article examines the current interest in leadership ingeneral and the growing interest in leadership in social work,in particular. It highlights the lack of a generalized definitionof the word and the different ways it is interpreted in socialwork. The implicit assumptions on which much leadership writingappears to be founded are noted. Leadership can be seen as afurther development of the managerial agenda, from one perspective,or as a countervailing factor maintaining professional autonomy,from another. In considering some of the components of leadershipas identified by some in the field, the paper considers theextent to which these skills are exclusive to leadership andasks whether they might already be present but overlooked inthe profession. The paper concludes that expectations of leadershipwithin social work would benefit from debate and clarificationif this is to be a useful future theme.     

Beliefs about overconfidence

This experiment elicits beliefs about other people’s overconfidence and abilities. We find that most people believe that others are unbiased, and only few think that others are overconfident. There is a remarkable heterogeneity between these groups. Those people who think others are underconfident or unbiased are overconfident themselves. Those who think others are overconfident are underconfident themselves. Despite this heterogeneity, people overestimate on average the abilities of others as they do their own ability. One driving force behind this result is the refusal to process information about oneself: not only does this lead to overestimation of one’s own ability, but by means of social projection also to overestimation of others’ abilities.     

Heterogeneity in life-duration preferences: Are risky recreationists really more risk loving?

We conduct multiple price list experiments that elicit life duration risk preferences from amateur auto racers, technical rock climbers, SCUBA divers, and a student control group. We posit a preference function that allows for risk aversion and probability weighting. We are particularly interested in whether the behavior of risk takers, such as risky recreationists or smokers, is best explained by a risk-tolerant utility function or if immunity to possibility bias arising from overweighting of low probabilities is a more important motivator of the choice to engage in risky activities. We find that amateur auto racers are more rational than either students or other risky recreationists because they are less likely to overemphasize low-probability events. Women, older subjects, and rock climbers are more susceptible to possibility bias than others, making them likely to overinvest in disease treatments that have a low probability of success.     

Importance Counts: The Role of Relative Importance of Service Elements in Client Satisfaction Measures

ABSTRACT

It is not uncommon for social work service providers, researchers, and evaluators to develop measures to obtain client satisfaction data relevant to their particular service settings. These measures are often constructed through a set of (usually Likert-type) satisfaction rating response items for each of the service elements relevant to their settings. Scores from these multiple items are then either summed or averaged to produce global satisfaction scores. By summing or averaging satisfaction scores across all items, one implicitly assumes that all survey items that represent various service elements carry equal weight. This assumption of equal weight is somewhat counterintuitive because individual clients may perceive certain survey items or service elements to be more important, or carry more weight, than others. Analyzing data from interviews with 112 clients of an elderly case management service agency in a large city in the Midwest region of the United States, this study examined this equal weight assumption in an elderly case management service setting. Results indicated that not all service elements were considered equally important, which called into question the common practice of summing or averaging satisfaction scores of various service elements to represent global client satisfaction.     

The Use of Base Rate Information as a Function of Experienced Consistency

Three experiments examine the effect of base rate consistency under direct experience. Base rate consistency was manipulated by blocking trials and setting base rate choice reinforcement to be either consistent or inconsistent across trial blocks. Experiment 1 shows that, contrary to the usual finding, participants use base rate information more than individuating information when it is consistent, but less when it is inconsistent. In Experiment 2, this effect was replicated, and transferred in verbal questions posed subsequently. Despite experience with consistent base rates increasing sensitivity to base rates in word problems, verbal responses were far from normative. In Experiment 3, participants’ use of base rates was once again moderated by its consistency, but this effect was itself moderated by the diagnosticity of base rate information. Participants were highly accurate in estimating experienced base rates. These studies demonstrate that base rate usage is complex and a function of how base rates are presented (experienced versus summary statistics) and response format (choice proportions versus probability estimates). Knowledge of base rates was insufficient for proper usage in verbal word problems. Although choice proportions showed a sophisticated sensitivity to experienced base rate information, participants seemed unable to demonstrate a similar sophistication when given typical word problems indicating that base rate neglect is a function of information representation and not an inherent processing bias.     

The Communication of Differential Relationships in Preschool Children: Preference and Social Theme

We examined the conversations of 14 preschool children to explore differences in communication between friends and nonfriends in a well-established group. Children's social preferences were identified by analysing relative utterance frequencies which revealed a network structure of 4 cliques. We then examined whether the integration (inclusion/exclusion) and social theme (person/action) content of children's utterances, and the responses (accept/oppose) to these utterances, discriminated relationships in the social network. Our main findings were 1) Exclusive utterances were more likely to occur between nonfriends and to be opposed. Inclusive utterances were more likely to occur between friends and to be accepted. 2) Person and action themes were used differentially. In exclusion statements, nonfriends were more likely to be personally rejected whereas friends were more likely to have their actions rejected. In inclusion statements, personal references were more likely to be accepted between friends whereas references to a peer's actions tended to be accepted by both friends and nonfriends. We concluded that children adapted the integration and social theme content of their utterances to relationship context in order to establish more intimate interactions between friends and more distant interactions between nonfriends.     

公共政策过程与行业协会的角色定位——中关村外商投资协会的案例研究

在高科技产业发展中 ,行业协会发挥着重要作用。中关村科技园区积极促进行业协会的发展。本文认为 ,行业协会的发展和作用的发挥 ,需要有公共政策的制定过程利益群体发挥作用的机制存在。否则 ,行业协会难以发挥令企业满意的功能。为此 ,本文提出几项政策建议。     

Trade vote determinants: Partisan effects of political action committee contribution percentages

Free trade agreements are less likely than other major congressional roll call votes to be decided by party affiliation, and are therefore regarded as opportunities to test the impact of interest group influence in the observable form of campaign donations. In this project, the vote to normalize trade relations with China is analyzed by variables including the percentage of total campaign donations from either labor or business. The data indicate that higher percentages of labor contributions, or relative interest group support, raised the probability that a member would vote against the trade bill, and the effect appeared more pronounced among Republicans than Democrats.     

Winners and losers: Assessing the impact of Chinese Yuan appreciation

This study uses a computational general equilibrium model to examine the effects of the Chinese currency on the consumption, investment, trade, output, and welfare of different countries or regions. The results indicate a general decline in welfare across the globe. China is the biggest loser, with a reduction in output. Its domestic interest rate is likely to decline, leading to a potential liquidity trap. The policy implication of this research is that China should minimize changes in its currency value in the short run.     

开掘历史唯物主义的文化维度

如何完善历史唯物主义是当代马克思主义寻求发展所面临的一个时代课题.西方马克思主义者一贯的理论目标就是要清除经济决定论的消极影响,从而进一步完善马克思主义的社会革命理论及其主体学说.在理论与现实的不断冲撞中,他们抓住意识形态问题,提出日常生活批判,开展文化研究,由此形成了一个"文化的转向",在深入开掘历史唯物主义的文化维度方面取得了显著的理论成果.     

Diversity among Northwest Hispanics

This article analyzes differences in the Northwest Spanish origin population by age, household—family structure, labor force participation, education, and poverty status. Comparisons are made with the white population to see if there are greater differences by county of residence. Contrary to findings in other studies, Hispanic females and more likely to be in the labor force when compared to white females. However, on variables indicating disadvantaged status, Northwest Hispanics follow patterns set in other parts of the country. In addition, there are generally greater differences by county of residence for the Hispanic population than for the white population. The implication of these findings for the status of Northwest Hispanics is discussed.     

逃税行为的经济学分析

逃税是一种普遍的社会现象,尤其在发展中国家更为严重.纳税人在进行逃税活动时,总是权衡了风险和收益的情况下,选择最优的收入申报量,而使它的预期收入最大化.当逃税被稽查的概率与被查处所受惩罚的力度之积大于和等于1时,纳税人会倾向完全纳税,相反会倾向逃税.同时,逃税人的预期收入还受到收入、税率、稽查概率和惩罚力度等参数的影响.要遏制逃税行为,应采取适当提高稽查概率,加大惩罚力度和提高收入的显性化等措施,才能使它的危害程度降到最小.