农村劳动力转移与土地保障权转让及土地的有效利用

中国家庭承包责任制尽管有效地解决了农村贫困问题,但由于未能很好地解决土地流转问题而阻碍了农村劳动力的顺畅转移.中国农村劳动力的转移既受到城市户籍制度的迁移阻隔,又受到农村土地制度的退出束缚.因此,文章认为,在改革城市户籍制度为农村劳动力打开迁移之门时,还需通过土地保障权的转让来消除迁移者的退出之虑,实现劳动力的永久转移,并在此基础上相应提高土地的利用效率.     

农村劳动力迁移与土地流转动态不一致分析——基于河南省进城务工农村劳动力的调查

中国农村劳动力迁移与土地流转动态不一致已经成为农业现代化和城市化发展的瓶颈。本文首先对劳动力迁移与土地流转行为进行分类,分析二者动态不一致及趋于同步的影响因素,得出土地自用机会成本、劳动力城市永久收入和城市生活成本是决定因素。然后提出建立土地周期动态流转机制、信息化阶梯式培训机制和产业向中小城镇转移作为解决问题的途径。再依据河南省进城务工农村劳动力的调查数据进行实证分析,对理论分析的结果进行验证。最后提出政策建议。     

西部地区农民进城意愿影响因素分析——以陕西省为例

基于陕西省21县的调查数据。利用Logistic模型对农民的进城意愿进行实证分析。研究结果表明：文化程度、家庭人口数、家庭人均年收入、离城镇距离等对农民进城意愿有正向影响。婚姻状况、家庭承包土地数量有负向影响,而性别、年龄、技术、城镇经济发展水平等因素的影响不显著。     

阶层分化与农民乡城永久迁移--基于CGSS 2010数据分析

CGSS 2010的数据分析发现,只有不到1/10的农民已经实现乡城永久迁移,接近1/10的农民有乡城永久迁移意愿.阶层分化对农民乡城永久迁移具有重要影响:白领阶层农民已经永久迁移和有永久迁移意愿的比率均最高,蓝领阶层和无业、失业、半失业者阶层次之,农业劳动者阶层最低;主观阶层、阶层流动预期对农民乡城永久迁移意愿具有正向影响,主观阶层等级越高,阶层流动预期越好的农民永久迁移意愿越高.新型城镇化的制度设计应改善蓝领阶层的生存环境、加大农民的职业技能培训、拓宽农民进入白领阶层的渠道,以推进农民的城镇化进程.     

农民家庭禀赋、社会保障与三孩生育意愿——基于2017年中国综合社会调查数据的实证研究CSSCI

生育政策调整是应对人口老龄化的重要举措,如何有效激发农村育龄群体的三孩生育意愿是政策落地的关键。本文认为农民家庭三孩生育意愿具有较大的政策激励潜力,故而借鉴理性选择理论建立农民家庭禀赋与社会保障对三孩生育意愿的分析框架,利用2017年中国综合社会调查相关数据,构建Biprobit模型进行实证检验分析框架。主要结论有:家庭经济资本与家庭人力资本对农民三孩生育意愿具有显著的正向影响,家庭社会资本对农民三孩生育意愿具有显著的负向影响;医疗保险对农民三孩生育意愿产生“挤入”效应,养老保险对农民三孩生育意愿产生“挤出”效应。主要建议有:完善社会保障制度以提升生育福利,提高家庭经济能力以降低生育成本,制定政策优化代际合作育儿人力资本,引导树立科学的人口资源生育观等。     

“两型”社会建设中的农户土地转出意愿分析——以长沙大河西光导区为例

对长沙大河西4个典型土地流转示范村进行农户土地转出意愿问卷调查,建立Logistic回归模型,分析农户土地转出意愿及影响因素。在5％水平下。对土地转出意愿具有显著的影响因素有中介组织、就业类型、家庭总收入、土地流转合同和家庭总人口,而年龄、受教育程度和家庭参保人数等对农户土地转出意愿没有显著性影响。     

居住特征、农村土地与农业转移人口迁移决策 ——以重庆市中心城区为例

基于农业转移人口定居与落户不同步的现实,以二者叠加识别其迁移决策,形成循环流动、行为性迁移与制度性迁移的迁移决策分析框架.以重庆市中心城区为研究区域,运用2017年流动人口动态监测数据,构建多元logit模型识别城市居住特征与农村土地对农业转移人口迁移决策的影响.结果显示:重庆市农业转移人口永久迁移意愿强烈,并呈现出行...     

城镇化过程中农民“带土进城”与农地权益保护

城镇化过程中农民土地权益不同程度地遭受损害,农民市民化进程减缓。农民能否可以带着土地权益转为市民?研究表明,农民"带土进城"保障了农民土地权益,有助于失地农民的就业安置,有助于农民享受城乡均等的社会公共服务。农民"带土进程"不但为农民工市民化提供了一个缓冲期,还一定程度上稀释了城镇化的社会成本,具有一定的合理性。     

户籍地禀赋与流入地融合 ——流动人口定居意愿影响因素研究

定居意愿是衡量流动人口转向稳定生活状态的重要指标,实则包含了居留意愿和落户意愿两方面的内容。基于2017年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测数据,通过建立多项Logistic回归模型的方法,重点从与制度结构相关的“户籍地禀赋”与“流入地融合”两个维度,分析流动人口“居留-落户”的定居意愿状况及其影响因素。研究结果表明,户籍地禀赋性因素的“回流”效应和流入地融合性因素的“拉动”效应对流动人口不同层面定居意愿的影响存在差异:与责任、情感、伦理相关的户籍地禀赋性因素以及与经济融入、社会与文化接纳相关的流入地融合性因素对流动人口居留意愿的影响比较显著;与财富价值相关的户籍地禀赋性因素以及与城乡区位相关的流入地融合性因素对流动人口落户意愿的影响比较显著;制度融入因素、生活融入因素、身份认同因素则对两个维度的定居意愿都产生了显著影响。因此,对于具有定居意愿的流动人口,政府应该努力实现基本公共服务的全覆盖,激发流动人口参与社会建设、增强对流入地的身份认同与文化接纳等融合水平;对于没有定居意愿的流动人口,也需为其“回流”后在户籍地的再次融入提供良好的制度保障环境。     

返乡劳动力的再迁移意愿和再迁移方向选择

部分流动人口回流迁移后仍会再次外出和继续迁移。研究发现,约三分之一的返乡劳动力具有再迁移意愿,县城及中心镇是他们再迁移的主要方向,呈现出就近城镇化的特点。就业机会与预期收入的驱动、家庭整体利益的权衡、社会网络的助推既决定他们的再迁移意愿,也决定再迁移方向的选择。(1)返乡劳动力的收入水平、就业稳定性和劳动技能培训经历显著影响其再迁移意愿,劳动技能培训提高了返乡劳动力选择县内再迁移的可能性。(2)家庭照护(居住)安排、土地耕种安排与子女教育安排也会影响其再迁移意愿,土地流转会增强返乡劳动力向省外的再迁移意愿,子女教育期望与入学机会是返乡劳动力向省内县外再迁移的重要因素。(3)返乡劳动力再迁移主要受其亲属网络的影响,而非地缘网络的影响。充分发挥返乡劳动力作用,有序引导其再次流动,对乡村振兴和中西部地区城镇化发展具有重要意义。     

"第四届华裔老年人国际学术研讨会"在京举行

由中国人民大学老年学研究所承办的“第四届华裔老年人国际学术研讨会” ,于 2 0 0 3年 10月 13日～ 15日在我校隆重举行。本次会议的主题是“应对变化中的老年需求”。在为期 3天的研讨会上 ,2 80多名与会代表共同探讨了 2 1世纪中国与世界面临的老龄问题与解决对策 ,对老年学研究成果以及老年工作的实践经验进行了广泛而深入地交流 ,力求进一步推动中国老龄问题的研究和老龄事业的健康发展。“第四届华裔老年人国际学术研讨会”开幕式由本次大会组委会主任中国人民大学老年学研究所副所长杜鹏教授主持。中国人民大学党委书记程天权 ,全国…     

Mother or Market? Effects of Maternal Employment on the Intellectual Ability of 4-Year-Old Children

This article uses the 1986 Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data set to investigate the impact of maternal employment on children's intellectual ability, as measured at the age of 4 by using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT). Results from multivariate regression analysis show a statistically significant adverse effect of mother's employment on children's intellectual ability, but only for boys in higher income families. Furthermore, the negative impact was related to the timing of maternal employment: employment during the boys' infancy had a statistically significant negative effect on PPVT scores at the age of 4. This pattern was not found for girls, for children in low-income families, or for families in which mothers resumed their employment after the child's first year of life. The impact of other demographic trends in recent years--declining fertility and rising marital instability--are also investigated. The results show an adverse effect of the presence of other siblings on children's PPVT scores; but holding family income constant, the effect of the parents' marital status on children's intellectual ability is not statistically significant. In addition, several family background factors are highly correlated with children's test scores.     

Relationship between Sex Ratio at Age 0 to 4 and Geographical Environment in China

The Relationship between sex ratio at age 0 to 4 and altitude in China is quantitatively investigated by using Geographical Information System(GIS)technology in this paper.The results show that the counties with high sex ratio at age 0 to 4 in 1990 and 2000 are mainly distributed on the east of the well-known Chinese population division,Anhui-Tengchong line,and there is high negative correlation between sex ratio at age 0 to 4 and altitude in Chinese counties. There are highest sex ratio at age 0 to 4 in the regions under 100 meters,but this ratio over 3200 meters falls into the normal range.And the sex ratio at age 0 to 4 continues to fall down when the altitude rises. So the geographical environment evidently affects the sex ratio at birth.There is higher sex ratio at birth in lower-altitude regions.The effect with altitude may be associated with the ambient tempeture.     

Portraying Trafficking in Lukas Moodysson's Lilya 4-Ever

The issue of human trafficking is frequently represented in visual images on television and in cinema. These narratives often focus on the selling of young women into the sex industry. One of the most prominent productions on the subject is the Swedish film Lilya 4-Ever (2002). Written and directed by Lukas Moodysson, the film tells the story of a tough adolescent, Lilya. Abandoned by her mother and left to fend for herself, Lilya turns to prostitution in order to survive. She is later trafficked to Sweden. She eventually commits suicide. Set in an unnamed post-Soviet city, the film reflects the reality of the increase in trafficked women from this region since the collapse of the USSR. The article analyzes Moodysson's film as an important model for depicting trafficking. Specific focus is given to the way the director defines Lilya and her milieu and engages seriously with issues of globalization, poverty, post-Soviet realities, and the very real issue of human trafficking. Most notably, Moodysson's film offers a depiction of trafficking that eschews any sexual objectification of the film's protagonist and combines progressive filmmaking with a melodramatic narrative to create a film that inspires extra-diegetic activism. Lilya 4-Ever is an emotionally impactful narrative, a modern-day melodrama for the twenty-first century.     

Forum 4: the environmental privilege of borders in the anthropocene

ABSTRACT

Mobility can indicate a powerful or privileged relationship with one’s environment. The ability to exercise mobility or not (of oneself or others) is an exertion of power that demarcates where particular people belong and under what kind of environmental conditions. This essay focuses on the significance of borders in creating environmental privilege in the Anthropocene. Environmental privilege is accrued through the exercise of economic, political, and cultural power that enables the construction of exclusive environmental amenities such as clean air and water, open space, and safe neighborhoods. For years, environmental justice scholars have revealed the burdens and oppressive conditions associated with environmental inequality, but few studies consider the flipside of that reality. We argue that environmental privileges enjoyed by some rest upon the manipulation of the mobility of others – human and nonhuman. We believe border making will come under greater pressure as the effects of climate change increase, and the volume of resources required to maintain exclusive spaces intensifies. Continued mass migration will bring heightened anxieties about national identity and calls for greater border enforcement, despite the reality that borders – both literal and figurative – consistently fail to alleviate migratory pressures while exacerbating the effects of climate change and environmental injustice. Our research shows that greater ecological instability increases efforts to create privatized places as pristine spaces untouched by global turmoil, thereby reinforcing those social forces that produce environmental injustices in the first place.     

"四二一"家庭微观仿真模型与应用

本文将"四二一"家庭和广义"四二一"家庭区分开来,并基于2000年第五次全国人口普查1‰抽样个案数据,建立了直接测算未来"四二一"家庭和广义"四二一"家庭数量的微观仿真模型.仿真结果显示,现行生育政策保持不变时,未来全国"四二一"家庭及广义"四二一"家庭数量并不多,且主要集中在非农业人口.     

西部农村村干部胜任力的实证分析——基于4县155位村干部的调查数据

村干部在中国农村发展过程中发挥着重要作用,村干部的胜任力在很大程度上决定了其所在村庄的经济和社会发展状况。本研究基于胜任力模型,通过问卷调查得到西部农村4县155位村干部的胜任力水平和其它相关资料,围绕样本的总体特征、年龄段特征、教育背景和人格特质等,探讨村干部的胜任力整体水平及影响因素。结果表明,村干部个人影响力整体水平较高,但管理领导能力水平偏低。胜任力在身份特征方面不存在显著性差异;在年龄和教育背景方面存在显著差异。外向性、宜人性、尽责性以及情绪的稳定性等人格维度均与胜任力各维度显著正相关。这些结论对于农村人才队伍建设和西部农村发展具有借鉴意义。