能源效率、二氧化碳排放效率与经济增长的关系分析

本文运用协整理论和误差修正模型,对世界和中国1971-2007年的能源效率、1960-2007年的CO2排放效率以及相应年度的GDP数据进行分析。结果表明,世界的CO2排放效率和GDP之间存在协整关系,中国的能源效率和GDP之间存在协整关系,且GDP是能源效率的Granger原因,从短期来看,GDP与能源效率呈正相关关系。     

边际减排成本与区域差异性研究

在全球气候变暖的背景下,减少CO2排放量已经成为世界各国面临的重大挑战,而我国作为CO2排放大国,承诺到2020年单位GDP的排放量较2005年下降40%～45%.围绕CO2的减排问题,本文展开了两大方面的研究工作:1)基于我国8种化石能源的面板数据,采用二次型方向性距离函数模型测算我国各省份（直辖市、自治区）的CO2边际减排成本,并由此分析省际层面和区域层面的CO2减排成本差异和技术效率.研究结果表明,减排成本最低的省份（山西）是最高的地区（北京）的1/5,而且不同省份之间CO2减排成本差异较大.还发现,CO2边际减排成本的大小整体呈现为"东部>中部>西部".这为在全国范围内不同省份之间建立碳排放交易市场提供了理论分析与实证检验的参考依据. 2)深入考察了我国各省份CO2边际减排成本存在较大差异的原因.分析结果表明，CO2排放浓度、研发程度、人力资源水平、能源结构、碳排放政策以及城市化水平等是影响边际减排成本的主要因素.在次基础上，提出了现阶段发展低碳经济的若干建议，从而使得本文研究具有重要的学术价值与现实意义.     

面向碳中和目标的中国工业部门减排路径与战略选择

工业部门(包含电力工业)是中国碳排放量最多的国民经济部门.探寻工业部门合理有效的碳减排路径是中国碳达峰、碳中和目标顺利实现的关键.本文分解了中国2000年—2019年工业碳排放历史演变路径的驱动因素,预测了三种情景下2019年—2060年工业碳排放的潜在演变路径,估计了工业部门碳中和进程中所需的投资额,讨论了不同减排时点选择下投资需求的异质性.研究发现：1)规模效应和效率效应是历史演变路径中最关键的驱动因素,而化石能源清洁转化效应、化石能源内部结构效应和清洁能源替代效应的影响较小;2)非电力工业未来核心的碳减排技术路径为能源效率提升和清洁能源消费替代,电力工业未来核心的碳减排技术路径则为清洁能源发电替代;3)在当前的技术水平下,工业部门碳中和的进程中需要超过300万亿元的巨额投资,所需投资主要集中于高排放的非电力工业.本文最后提出了“以技术为核心,以市场为机制,以政策为引导”的中国工业部门实现碳中和的战略选择.     

基于前沿分析方法的中国工业部门 广义碳生产率指数测算及变化分解

碳生产率能将低碳经济的两大目标融为一体,工业部门作为能源密集型部门,是二氧化碳排放的主体,其碳生产率的变化深刻影响着中国整体碳生产率的格局。目前,大部分学者都用GDP与二氧化碳排放量的比值作为衡量碳生产率的指标,然而二氧化碳排放空间作为一种投入要素,其产出除了经济绩效外还包括环境、就业等综合绩效。本文基于广义碳生产率的概念,通过对前沿分析方法的比较,选择基于方向性距离函数的DEA方法,测算了中国工业部门各细分行业从2004-2009年的广义碳生产率指数,并对其变化进行了分解。结果表明:(1)中国工业部门广义碳生产率指数整体小于1,说明广义碳生产率水平整体上存在下降的趋势;(2)引致工业部门广义碳生产率指数整体小于1的主要原因是技术效率和规模效率低下。     

中国工业能源消耗与CO2排放影响效应研究

本文利用改进的指数分解法LMDI对我国1994-2003年工业能源消耗带来的CO2排放的影响效应进行了实证研究.结论表明样本期间工业经济增长效应和能源强度效应分别是加剧和减缓工业CO2排放的主要原因,工业子行业结构效应、子行业能源消耗结构效应和CO2排放系数效应对工业CO2排放影响较小.在此基础上提出了下一步工业CO2的减排措施.     

现金股利的异常派现、代理成本与公司价值——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

现金股利的异常派现行为体现了公司内部人利益,是一种非理性派现行为.本文采用2010-2012年中国沪市和深市3414家上市公司作为研究样本,实证检验了异常派现、代理成本和公司价值之间的关系.基准模型的实证结果表明,异常高派现会减少公司内部人所控制的现金资源,增加公司的代理成本,降低代理效率和公司价值.正常派现会增加代理效率与公司价值,是一种理性派现行为.加入交乘项的模型实证结果表明,控制结构哑变量会影响异常高派现公司的代理成本,也会影响异常低派现公司的代理效率.股权性质哑变量不会通过派现行为对公司代理效率产生显著影响,仅有私有性质哑变量通过异常低派现,降低公司的代理效率.     

企业并购决策临界点的期权博弈分析

运用期权博弈理论分析得出了各种信息条件下企业并购决策临界点模型.在不考虑竞争对手的条件下,企业的并购决策临界点取决于并购者和被并购者之间的期权博弈,即并购价值增加和成本增加之间的权衡;在考虑竞争对手的条件下,企业的并购决策临界点取决于并购企业与被并购企业之间、并购者之间的期权博弈,即价值增加、成本增加和风险率(hazard rate)三者间的权衡.最后通过仿真实验对以上各种分析结果进行了验证.     

经济增长、城镇化及产业结构与碳排放——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

基于国际公认方法估算中国30个省1997-2011年CO2排放量,运用静态和动态面板模型分别研究经济增长、城镇化及第二产业结构与其影响关系。研究结果显示:CO2排放量与经济增长及城镇化存在倒U型关系,而第二产业结构对CO2排放量有着显著正相关影响;同时上一期CO2排放量与本期有着显著正相关。     

环境规制工具对企业绿色技术创新偏好的影响研究

环境规制效果受到规制工具种类选择和企业成本结构的影响。面对不同的环境规制工具，考虑成本最小化，企业存在是否进行绿色技术创新以及开展何种绿色技术创新的权衡。本文首先构建理论模型分析价格型规制与数量型规制对企业绿色技术创新的影响路径与机制，进而采用嵌套Logit模型检验环境规制工具对绿色技术创新选择的影响作用。结果发现：(1)价格型规制工具更多地作用于污染末端治理，而数量型规制工具则倾向于从源头减少污染物产生；同时，环境规制工具的减排作用受到绿色技术进步程度的影响。(2)不同类型的环境规制工具对绿色技术创新的选择具有异质性效应。价格型规制工具往往通过治污技术引进降低污染排放，而数量型规制与命令型规制则更有利于通过绿色生产技术创新减少污染排放。(3)价格型环境规制的区域差异最为明显，命令型规制工具仅存在影响程度上的区域异质性，并没有影响偏向的异质性。各种影响因素的区域异质性与规制工具异质性，归根结底取决于企业在污染治理成本与收益之间的权衡。     

考虑产能扩大成本的价格与交付提前期优化模型

针对价格、时间敏感需求,且在基于时间竞争的市场上存在产品间的替代性,考虑产能扩大成本的制约,构建了相关决策模型.根据权衡定律对模型进行了最优性分析,分别求出以交付提前期或价格为主导的最优竞争策略,结果表明交付提前期主导下的最优价格随着交付提前期的缩短而有较大的提高,价格主导下的最优交付提前期与价格的算术平方根成反比.分析了净收益和产能之间的关系,证明考虑产能扩大成本后存在最优的产能规模,并结合算例,得出一些有益的结论.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Employees' perceptions of organizational restructuring: the role of social support

Organizational change and restructuring is often perceived as leading to increased occupational stress, impacting negatively on the psychological well-being of employees. This pragmatic study investigates the role of social support and dispositional affect as moderators of role stress post-restructuring for employees in a public utility company. A total of 176 employees, including 37 managers, 60 graded staff and 78 industrial staff completed a self-report questionnaire, approximately 1 year postrestructuring, retrospectively assessing role conflict, ambiguity, overload and positive and negative feedback pre- and post-restructuring. Results suggested that overall role stress increased for managers/ senior officers and graded staff, but not for industrial staff. Social support was linked with lower role stress, more positive feedback and less negative feedback at post-restructuring. For certain role stressors this impact was moderated by dispositional affect, but the effect was not consistent across occupational groups. Positive affect enhanced the effect of manager support in reducing role conflict for graded staff, and the effect of co-worker support in increasing positive feedback and reducing negative feedback for industrial staff. Findings suggest that managers should pay particular attention to support and feedback for employees during periods of chronic occupational stress following organizational restructuring.