Rethinking measures of migration: On the decomposition of net migration

The purpose of this paper is to “resurrect” the measure of net migration and defend its continued use under specific research circumstances, despite the current dissatisfaction with the measure as expressed by some scholars. We employ data from the 1980 Census of Population to compare five measures of migration, including net migration rates, in- and out-migration rates, migration efficiency ratios and migration turnover rates. We demonstrate the additivity of in- and out-migration rates with net migration rates and migration turnover rates. Also, we show how the migration efficiency ratio and turnover rates are conceptually and mathematically related. Finally, a simple multivariate model is estimated to show how regression coefficients from in-and out-migration rate models are related to net migration and migration turnover rates.     

Rural out-migration and resource-dependent communities in Mexico and India

Resource regimes are complex social–ecological systems that operate at multiple levels. Using data from two distinct cultural and environmental contexts (Mexico and India), this paper looks at the susceptibility and response of such regimes to rural out-migration. As a driver of demographic and cultural change, out-migration impacts both the practices and institutional arrangements that define territorial resource use and management. The research shows that critical yet poorly recognised shifts in migration dynamics can increase the pressures felt locally and serve to reduce the effectiveness of institutional adaptations at the community level. From an environmental perspective, the research adds to the body of work examining the impacts of rural depopulation on land and seascapes and associated biological diversity. We question the assumption that rural–urban migration necessarily simulates ecosystem recovery and aids conservation. This finding is timely as funding agencies and government programs show belated interest in the consequences of out-migration for environmental management, resource use and rural livelihoods in tropical country settings.     

Determinants of out-migration in rural China: effects of payments for ecosystem services

Rural-to-urban migration has been a hallmark of economic development in China and other developing countries and can have profound socio-economic and ecological implications. This study seeks to understand the impacts on this migration of two large payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs implemented by the Chinese Government: the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP). The primary goal of these PES programs is environmental conservation with poverty alleviation as the secondary goal. We use a full model of the factors affecting rural out-migration at the individual, household, and community levels to investigate how these PES programs have influenced out-migration in a mountainous rural area of Anhui, China. Results show that the CCFP facilitates out-migration, while the EWFP overall discourages it, thereby somewhat offsetting the effects of the CCFP. Out-migration is also shown to be affected by a number of other individual, household, and community characteristics. The results are useful for designing concurrent PES programs in the future aiming at both environmental conservation and livelihood improvement in not only China but also other developing countries.     

对90年代回流农村劳动力创业行为的实证研究

本文以 90年代安徽省农村劳动力由城市打工后返回本地创业的 193个个案调查为基础 ,对农村劳动力从外出打工到回乡创业的—般规律进行了实证分析 ,从动机、资源、资本等多角度阐明了外出打工与回乡创业之间的内在联系 ,探讨了回流农村劳动力的创业“机理” ,提出不发达地区政府应鼓励和支持有—定打工积累的外出农民回乡创业 ,以推动本地区的经济发展     

Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

We evaluate how changes in weather patterns affected rural-urban migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries, by age and sex, over the 1980–2015 period. We combine recent age- and sex-specific estimates of net rural-urban migration with historical data on rainfall and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We also compare standard unweighted estimates of rainfall and temperature to estimates weighted by the proportion of the country’s total rural population in the CRU grid. Results show that rural out-migration of young adults is the most sensitive to shifts in weather patterns, with lower rainfall, lower variability in rainfall, and higher temperatures increasing subsequent rural out-migration—though the last of these is not observed in weighted models. The strength of these effects has grown stronger over time for 20–24 year olds, though weaker above age 30. In contrast, increasing temperature variability is associated with a higher rural in-migration of children (0–9) and older adults (55–64). Gender differences in these effects are minimal and concentrated in areas which experienced heavy reductions in rainfall.

     

Household organization and the interregional variation of out-migration rates

Regional out-migration rates may depend on localized conditions, but the range of possibilities for migration decision making in multi person households includes processes in which the response to variations in localized conditions depends on household size. Analyses of migration rates for households indicate that larger households exhibit more extreme responses to variations in localized conditions and that this is an important source of variation in regional out-migration rates.     

Out-migration and land-use change in agricultural frontiers: insights from Altamira settlement project

One of Daniel Hogan??s lasting impacts on international demography community comes through his advocacy for studying bidirectional relationships between environment and demography, particularly migration. We build on his holistic approach to mobility and examine dynamic changes in land use and migration among small farm families in Altamira, Pará, Brazil. We find that prior area in either pasture or perennials promotes out-migration of adult children, but that out-migration is not directly associated with land-use change. In contrast to early formulations of household life cycle models that argued that aging parents would decrease productive land use as children left the farm, we find no effect of out-migration of adult children on land-use change. Instead, remittances facilitate increases in area in perennials, a slower to pay off investment that requires scarce capital, but in pasture. While remittances are rare, they appear to permit sound investments in the rural milieu and thus to slow rural exodus and the potential consolidation of land into large holdings. We would do well to promote the conditions that allow them to be sent and to be used productively to keep families on the land to avoid the specter of extensive deforestation for pasture followed by land consolidation.     

Soil and its influence on rural drought migration: insights from Depression-era Southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada

This article investigates linkages between soil conditions, farm-level vulnerability, adaptation, and rural migration during periods of drought. It begins by reviewing existing literature on climate adaptation in agricultural populations and on relationships between soil and rural migration. This is followed by a detailed case study of rural migration patterns that emerged in the Swift Current district of Saskatchewan, Canada, during a period of extended droughts and severe economic conditions in the 1930s. Using a combination of secondary literature, interviews with surviving first-hand observers and GIS modeling, the study shows how the interacting effects of household indebtedness, social capital, government relief programs, and farm-level soil quality helped stimulate population loss in many rural townships across the study area. The study focuses particularly on the role played by differential soil quality across the Swift Current district and how farms situated on sandier soils were typically more sensitive and vulnerable to drought than those situated on clay soils. Higher-than-average rates of population loss were associated with townships containing areas of poorer quality agricultural soils, an association replicable using GIS software and existing soil and population datasets. The findings from the case study are discussed within the context of the broader existing literature, and suggestions are provided on future directions for research, planning, and modeling to assist planners and policymakers concerned with rural adaptation and migration.     

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-Bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico’s dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The new economics of labor migration theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops.     

Networks Versus Need: Drivers of Urban Out-Migration in the Brazilian Amazon

As urbanization rates rise globally, it becomes increasingly important to understand the factors associated with urban out-migration. In this paper, we examine the drivers of urban out-migration among young adults in two medium-sized cities in the Brazilian Amazon—Altamira and Santarém—focusing on the roles of social capital, human capital, and socioeconomic deprivation. Using household survey data from 1,293 individuals in the two cities, we employ an event history model to assess factors associated with migration and a binary logit model to understand factors associated with remitting behavior. We find that in Altamira, migration tends to be an individual-level opportunistic strategy fostered by extra-local family networks, while in Santarém, migration tends to be a household-level strategy driven by socioeconomic deprivation and accompanied by remittances. These results indicate that urban out-migration in Brazil is a diverse social process, and that the relative roles of extra-local networks versus economic need can function quite differently between geographically proximate but historically and socioeconomically distinct cities.     

The impact of origin community characteristics on rural-urban out-migration in a developing country

It is widely believed that structural variables such as inequitable land distribution, lack of rural employment opportunities, and rural-urban wage and amenity gaps influence population movements in developing countries. Yet quantitative evidence is scant. In this paper a multilevel model is used to investigate the effects of individual-, household-, and areal-level factors on rural-urban out-migration in the Ecuadorian Sierra. Data from a detailed survey carried out in 1977-1978 and from government macro-areal statistics are used to investigate factors affecting the out-migration of youths aged 12-25. Preliminary conclusions are presented on the usefulness of multilevel models in studying migration and policy implications for Ecuador.     

Migration-related land use dynamics in increasingly hybrid peri-urban space: insights from two agricultural communities in Bolivia

This article investigates the impact of transnational labor migration on agriculture in urbanizing communities in Bolivia. Previous research shows that the characteristics of rural out-migration communities affect whether agricultural practices are intensified and improved. Using a mixed methods approach, two closely located peri-urban communities with distinct prerequisites for agricultural development are analyzed. This study shows weak migration-induced changes in agriculture and concludes that transnational migration does not necessarily accelerate an ongoing urbanization process. It shows that remittances function to maintain farming for subsistence and as a secondary livelihood activity. However, major investments in agricultural intensification are not attractive due to the communities’ proximity to the main cities. This article highlights the need for nuanced conceptualization when studying migration-driven agricultural change in hybrid peri-urban spaces.     

Associations between overseas,intra-urban and internal migration dynamics in Sydney, 1976–91

Between 1976 and 1991 metropolitan Sydney experienced unprecedented internal migration losses to other states and coastal regions of New South Wales. Levels of overseas immigration were also high and housing costs increased markedly, especially between 1986 and 1991. This paper investigates spatial statistical associations between overseas in-migration rates and internal migration loss within Sydney and between housing costs in Sydney and internal migration outflows. The hypothesis was that housing cost changes and overseas migration contributed additively to migration losses from the metropolis. A complementary analysis of the relationship between migration and housing cost changes is also undertaken. There was a strong positive association between overseas in-migration and intra-urban out-migration and a strong negative spatial association between overseas in-migration and internal out-migration. In consequence, housing cost associations with internal migration loss were found, although not all were in the expected direction. There were stronger associations between housing factors and intra-urban migration. The integration of metropolitan Sydney and Australia into the ‘Pacific rim’ economy is examined with reference to wider explanations of house cost changes and migration flows.     

International Migration and Educational Assortative Mating in Mexico and the United States

This paper examines the relationship between migration and marriage by describing how the distributions of marital statuses and assortative mating patterns vary by individual and community experiences of migration. In Mexico, migrants and those living in areas with high levels of out-migration are more likely to be in heterogamous unions. This is because migration increases the relative attractiveness of single return migrants while disproportionately reducing the number of marriageable men in local marriage markets. In the United States, the odds of homogamy are lower for migrants compared with nonmigrants; however, they do not vary depending on the volume of migration in communities. Migrants are more likely than nonmigrants to “marry up” educationally because the relatively small size of this group compels them to expand their pool of potential spouses to include nonmigrants, who tend to be better educated than they are. Among migrants, the odds of marrying outside of one’s education group increase the most among the least educated. In Mexican communities with high rates of out-migration, the odds of marrying outside of one’s education group are highest among those with the highest level of education. These findings suggest that migration disrupts preferences and opportunities for homogamy by changing social arrangements and normative climates.     

Migration in market and democracy transition: Migration intentions and behavior in Romania

This paper analyzes the determinants of migration decision-making in the context of recent market and democratic transition in Romania. Using early 1990s internal migration survey, census and population register data, the results from Lisrel path models show that market and democracy value orientation variables are significant determinants of intentions to move, controlling for individual and regional social structural and resource indicators. Similarly, district-level out-migration behavior is directly determined by the political profile of the local area. Results from the total and disaggregated rural and urban models are interpreted through a reform values and characteristics typology of migrants. At least in the early stages of Romanian transition, the results indicate that migration choice behavior is governed by a search for places with greatest opportunities in terms of market and democracy returns. Implications of the results for political system and public policy decision are discussed.     

Social factors as predictors of internal migration patterns in Israel

The influence of 1975 crime and poverty-dependence factor scores on 1976–1980 internal migration rates in Israel was studied. Lag correlations between the two factor scores and in and out migration revealed that poverty-dependence was strongly and negatively related to in-migration and moderately and negatively related to out-migration. No relationship was found between crime and in-migration over the five year period, but a strong positive relationship was indicated between crime and outmigration. It was thus shown that social indicators such as crime and poverty-dependence revealed lasting effects on migration rates, and may be an aid to social planners.     

Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador

The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particularly in the developing world and for gradual but pervasive forms of environmental change. To address this, a retrospective migration survey was conducted in rural Ecuador and linked to data on topography, climate, and weather shocks. These data were used to estimate multivariate event history models of alternative forms of mobility (local mobility, internal migration, and international migration), controlling for a large number of covariates. This approach is generalizable to other study areas and responds to calls for the development of more rigorous methods in this field. The results indicate that adverse environmental conditions do not consistently increase rural out-migration and, in some cases, reduce migration. Instead, households respond to environmental factors in diverse ways, resulting in complex migratory responses. Overall, the results support an alternative narrative of environmentally induced migration that recognizes the adaptability of rural households in responding to environmental change.     

Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program

Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. We use experimental data from PROGRESA, Mexico's primary poverty-reduction program, to evaluate the effects of conditional cash transfers on migration both domestically and to the United States. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles to the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. Analysis based on the data collected before and after the program's onset shows that conditional transfers reduce U.S. migration but not domestic migration. The data also enable us to explore the role of existing family and community migration networks. The results show that migration networks strongly influence migration, but that the effect of conditional transfers on migration is apparently not mediated by existing migration network structures. Our results suggest that conditional transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the United States.     

Mother’s,Household, and Community U.S. Migration Experience and Infant Mortality in Rural and Urban Mexico

This study explores rural and urban differences in the relationship between U.S. migration experience measured at the individual, household, and community levels and individual-level infant mortality outcomes in a national sample of recent births in Mexico. Using 2000 Mexican Census data and multi-level regression models, we find that women’s own U.S. migration experience is associated with lower odds of infant mortality in both rural and urban Mexico, possibly reflecting a process of healthy migrant selectivity. Household migration has mixed blessings for infant health in rural places: remittances are beneficial for infant survival, but recent out-migration is disruptive. Recent community-level migration experience is not significantly associated with infant mortality overall, although in rural places, there is some evidence that higher levels of community migration are associated with lower infant mortality. Household- and community-level migration have no relationship with infant mortality in urban places. Thus, international migration is associated with infant outcomes in Mexico in fairly complex ways, and the relationships are expressed most profoundly in rural areas of Mexico.

Rural out-migration and smallholder agriculture in the southern Ecuadorian Andes

This study investigates the consequences of out-migration and migrant remittances for smallholder agriculture in a rural and environmentally marginal study area in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Migration and remittances have the potential for transformative impacts on agriculture in origin areas of migration due to consequent declines in labor availability and increases in income, but previous studies have primarily found mixed and weak effects. This study provides additional insight by considering the gender and destination of migrants, key factors given gender norms influencing participation in agriculture, and the large gap in remittances sent by internal and international migrants. Building on recent methodological innovations, the study uses original household survey data and multivariate statistical models to examine the consequences of migration and remittances for multiple agricultural outcomes, including maize production, agrodiversity, female participation in agriculture, and the use of land, labor, and chemical inputs. Consistent with previous studies, the results indicate that migration and remittances have mixed and countervailing effects on smallholder agriculture. Specifically, out-migration has lost-labor effects that differ between men and women, and international remittances have investment-promotion effects that result in increased maize production. Together, the results highlight the resilience of smallholder agriculture in the face of dramatic demographic change.