现代服务业是否有助于推动城镇化？——基于产城融合视角的PVAR模型分析

目前中国的城镇化现象难以完全用"工业决定论"来解释,服务业在城镇化过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色。流通业和旅游业作为现代服务业的主导产业,具有较强的集聚功能和就业吸纳能力,还具有较强的城市经济功能和服务功能,成为城镇产业体系和公共服务体系的必要组成部分。首先对服务业与城镇化之间的互动作用机制进行理论分析;然后建立PVAR模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析变量之间的因果关系;最后构建耦合协调评价模型,从全国、区域及行业层面对系统间的相互作用强度与协调发展水平进行实证分析,并归纳协调发展模式。研究发现：以流通业、旅游业为主导产业的现代服务业与城镇化之间存在因果关系和稳定均衡关系,能够推动城镇化发展;早期由工业化推动的城镇化水平高于流通业和旅游业,后期两者逐渐缩减与城镇化的差距,系统间的耦合协调发展水平不断提升,但存在区域差异;耦合协调发展模式归纳为演化趋同型和发展同步型,发展同步型组合内各系统发展水平相对一致,有助于快速提升耦合协调发展水平。     

旅游社会承载力的量测及管理研究

旅游业的发展使旅游目的地的社会特征发生了改变,其变化趋势在很大程度上取决于旅游目的地承载能力。每一个旅游目的地所维持的可接受的旅游发展水平是有一定限度的,如果超过了这个限度,就可能导致当地社会系统的退化。     

游客重游意愿的决定规划:基于滨海生态旅游区的实证研究

游客的重游对旅游目的地的可持续发展有着重要的作用。本文在前人的基础上构建了基于计划行为理论和顾客满意理论的滨海生态旅游区游客重游意愿的理论模型,并以大连、青岛等北方滨海城市的游客为样本进行实证。最终验证了游客满意、态度、主观规范、感知行为控制、景区形象以及过去行为是影响游客重游意愿的主要因素,同时过去行为、服务品质通过游客满意和态度,景区形象、滨海生态旅游认知通过态度间接影响游客重游意愿,并针对分析结果对滨海生态旅游区的发展和管理提出了相应的建议和意见,最后讨论了研究展望。     

A WORLD OF CITIES: THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF URBANIZATION IN POORER COUNTRIES

Historically, urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire. But there has been an explosion of poor mega‐cities over the last 30 years. A simple urban model illustrates that in closed economies, agricultural prosperity leads to more urbanization, but that in an open economy, urbanization increases with agricultural desperation. The challenge of developing world mega‐cities is that poverty and weak governance reduce the ability to address the negative externalities that come with density. This paper models the connection between urban size and institutional failure, and shows that urban anonymity causes institutions to break down. For large cities with weak governments, draconian policies may be the only way to curb negative externalities, suggesting a painful trade‐off between dictatorship and disorder. A simple model suggests that private provision of infrastructure to reduce negative externalities is less costly when city populations are low or institutions are strong, but that public provision can cost less in bigger cities.     

Risk Analysis of Safety Service Patrol (SSP) Systems in Virginia

The transportation infrastructure is a vital backbone of any regional economy as it supports workforce mobility, tourism, and a host of socioeconomic activities. In this article, we specifically examine the incident management function of the transportation infrastructure. In many metropolitan regions, incident management is handled primarily by safety service patrols (SSPs), which monitor and resolve roadway incidents. In Virginia, SSP allocation across highway networks is based typically on average vehicle speeds and incident volumes. This article implements a probabilistic network model that partitions “business as usual” traffic flow with extreme‐event scenarios. Results of simulated network scenarios reveal that flexible SSP configurations can improve incident resolution times relative to predetermined SSP assignments.     

Optimization of loss-balanced multicast in all-optical WDM networks

In wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) optical networks, multicast is implemented by constructing a light-forest, which is a set of light-trees with each light-tree rooted from the multicast source and terminated at a partition subset of the destination nodes. Multicast routing scenario has considerable impact on the quality of optical signal received at each destination. To guarantee the fairness of signal quality at different destinations in a multicast session, it is desirable to construct a loss-balanced light-forest to deliver the multicast traffic. A loss-balanced light-forest is composed of a set of light-trees bounded in size (number of destinations per multicast tree), in size variation (difference in the number of destinations among different multicast trees), and in dimension (maximum source-to-destination distance on each multicast tree). This paper investigates the multicast routing and wavelength assignment (MC-RWA) problem under the loss-balance constraint. The problem is formulated as an optimization model using integer linear programming (ILP). Numerical solutions to the optimization model can supply useful performance benchmarks for loss-balance-constrained optical multicast in WDM networks. This work was supported by the NSF under Grant OCI-0225642 and by the U.S. DoE under Grant DE-FG02–03ER25566.     

Measuring Christian Beliefs that Affect Managerial Decision-Making: A Beginning

Although considerable work has been done on the measurement of religious values and beliefs, little is understood about their effect on managerial values and decision making. This paper reports on theoretical work by the authors identifying Christian religious beliefs that might affect managerial decision making; it also reports the results of empirical work validating five scales of religious beliefs that might affect managerial decision making. Future research directions are proposed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国旅游产业潜力评估模型及实证分析

本文以旅游产业为研究对象,以旅游系统结构为切入点,分析旅游产业潜力的真正来源、结构及转化途径,通过计量方法具体回答目前旅游学界比较茫然的旅游业发展潜力空间大小这一战略性问题。研究结果表明,旅游产业具有巨大的发展潜力,短期来看,旅游需求潜力要小于旅游供给潜力,旅游产业潜力受到旅游需求不足的短板制约。未来很长一段时间还需要刺激需求来实现旅游业更大潜力的挖掘。本文从需求与供给结构研究旅游产业潜力的方法将为其它产业潜力的测算与评估提供一种借鉴。     

Experience,Service Operations Strategy,and Services as Destinations: Foundations and Exploratory Investigation

This paper explores the customer experience paradigm as it pertains to service operations strategy and design. First, we operationally define and discuss the concept of customer experience. In this context, we propose a reframing of the strategic role of operations strategy as one of choreographing experience‐centric services. We then introduce the concept of services as destinations as an emerging business model for classifying experiential service strategies. Our conceptual typology of experience‐based strategies uses two dimensions: (1) the depth of use of experience as a source of value creation, ranging from brand experience to the services as a destinations business model, and (2) the degree of integration of experience internally within the firm. Using this conceptual typology, we develop five propositions and use multiple cases to illustrate firms' use of these experience strategies. Laying the groundwork for future research, we highlight insights from the qualitative, multiple‐case data as they pertain to service operations strategy and the business model that employs services as destinations. A number of questions for further research are suggested.     

FROM FARMERS TO MERCHANTS,CONVERSIONS AND DIASPORA: HUMAN CAPITAL AND JEWISH HISTORY

From the end of the second century CE, Judaism enforced a religious norm requiring fathers to educate their sons. We present evidence supporting our thesis that this change had a major influence on Jewish economic and demographic history. First, the high individual and community cost of educating children in subsistence farming economies (2nd to 7th centuries) prompted voluntary conversions of Jews that account for a share of the reduction from 4.5 to 1.2 million. Second, the Jewish farmers who invested in education gained the comparative advantage and incentive to enter skilled occupations during the urbanization in the Abbasid empire in the Near East (8th and 9th centuries) and they did select themselves into these occupations. Third, as merchants the Jews invested even more in education—a precondition for the mailing network and common court system that endowed them with trading skills demanded all over the world. Fourth, the Jews generated a voluntary diaspora within the Muslim Empire and later to Western Europe. Fifth, the majority of world Jewry lived in the Near East when the Mongol invasions in the 1250s brought this region back to a subsistence farming economy in which many Jews found it difficult to enforce the religious norm, and hence converted, as it had happened centuries earlier. (JEL: J1, J2, N3, O1, Z12, Z13)     

Sequential Hazards Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure System: A Case Study of Greater Toronto Area Energy Infrastructure System

Coupled infrastructure systems and complicated multihazards result in a high level of complexity and make it difficult to assess and improve the infrastructure system resilience. With a case study of the Greater Toronto Area energy system (including electric, gas, and oil transmission networks), an approach to analysis of multihazard resilience of an interdependent infrastructure system is presented in the article. Integrating network theory, spatial and numerical analysis methods, the new approach deals with the complicated multihazard relations and complex infrastructure interdependencies as spatiotemporal impacts on infrastructure systems in order to assess the dynamic system resilience. The results confirm that the effects of sequential hazards on resilience of infrastructure (network) are more complicated than the sum of single hazards. The resilience depends on the magnitude of the hazards, their spatiotemporal relationship and dynamic combined impacts, and infrastructure interdependencies. The article presents a comparison between physical and functional resilience of an electric transmission network, and finds functional resilience is always higher than physical resilience. The multiple hazards resilience evaluation approach is applicable to any type of infrastructure and hazard and it can contribute to the improvement of infrastructure planning, design, and maintenance decision making.     

旅游危机:类型、影响机制与管理模型

旅游危机是影响旅行者对一个目的地信心和扰乱继续正常经营的非预期性事件。文章分析了旅游危机的类型、影响内容、影响范围和影响机制,创建旅游危机时期潜在旅游者风险决策模型和旅游危机管理的模型,指出在危机的不同阶段应采取的管理措施和对策。     

局内动态配送车调度管理及其竞争策略

提出了动态物流配送车辆调度优化问题——配送车在一度量空间中进行服务,度量空间中的任何一节点可能在任何时间提出服务请求,要求配送车将该点处的货物运送到另一点,每一个服务请求都有一个服务期限,若在规定的时间内某一服务请求不能被满足则将被取消,在考虑装/卸货所用时间的情况下,决策者如何以局内方式确定调度策略,使配送车完成的服务请求数最多.针对该不确定性条件下的管理决策问题,给出了两种局内管理策略,并利用局内问题及竞争分析理论,给出了不同载重量下(Q=1和Q=∞)的两种策略的竞争比.     

基于线性分段恢复函数的基础设施韧性分析模型——以C县电力系统网络为例

针对近年来一系列突发事件冲击和破坏着城市关键基础设施系统的正常运行,并造成了较为严重的社会后果的现实问题,提出了如何保护关键基础设施系统的研究问题,以使基础设施系统能够对灾害情景做出迅速的响应,并迅速地处理以恢复到常态。本研究基于三种典型的恢复函数提出了线性分段恢复函数,构建了关键基础设施系统韧性分析模型,并用蒙特卡洛模拟的方法应用到C县的电力系统网络加以验证,得到了该韧性分析模型不仅可以帮助决策者在灾害情境下权衡预算成本和韧性的关系,也可以识别关键基础设施系统网络中需要保护的关键节点,从而实现对关键基础设施系统的针对性保护的结论。本研究构建的韧性分析模型有为灾害情境下对电力系统采取针对性保护的现实价值,和开拓了对基础设施系统进行保护研究的分析模型的理论价值。     

Infrastructure in Developing and Transition Countries: Risk and Protection

This article examines two possible strategies for financing post-disaster infrastructure rehabilitation in developing and transition countries: relying on ex ante financing instruments (including insurance, catastrophe bonds, and other risk-transfer instruments) and ex post borrowing or credit. Insurance and other ex ante instruments will increase a country's stability, especially if the government authorities have a difficult time borrowing or otherwise raising funds after a major disaster; however, these instruments have an opportunity cost and can reduce the country's economic growth potential. The cost-benefit tradeoff is therefore one between economic growth through infrastructure investment and added solvency and stability for the economy. This article develops a model to illustrate this tradeoff. The model, which views the infrastructure of a developing or transition country as a nondiversifiable portfolio that generates returns, can provide a basis for evaluating alternative financing options depending on the country's objectives in terms of growth, solvency, and stability.     

江苏省服务业发展、城市化与要素集聚的实证研究

本文研究了城市化与服务业互动发展的现实问题,并对城市化水平提升促进服务业产值增加以及服务业发展水平提高推动城市化进程的深入的微观机制做了探讨和分析,研究发现两者之间的互动关系在本质上都是要素集聚的结果.在此基础上,本文构建了计量模型对服务业与城市化的相关关系做了定量检验,发现从短期来看,服务业发展对推动城市化水平提高的作用小于城市化水平提高促进服务业发展的作用;而从长期来看服务业发展对推动城市化水平提高的作用要大于城市化水平提高对服务业发展的促进作用.进而针对目前城市化与服务业互动发展现状提出一系列政策建议.     

Trust in the Safety of Tourist Destinations: Hard to Gain,Easy to Lose? New Insights on the Asymmetry Principle

According to the asymmetry principle of trust, negative events decrease trust to a much higher extent than positive events increase trust. The study at hand intended to verify whether this notion of asymmetry holds true with respect to trust in the safety of tourist destinations. Thus, in contrast to previous research that analyzed trust asymmetry in the context of involuntary technological risks, the present study evaluates the validity of the asymmetry principle of trust in the context of voluntary tourism risks. The hypothesis that negative or risky information on destination safety (absence of proper safety measures and conditions) has a higher impact on distrust than, conversely, positive or nonrisk information on destination safety (provision of proper safety measures and conditions) has on trust was tested in an online survey ( N = 640). In contrast to the asymmetry pattern found by Slovic (1993) , results of the current work suggest symmetry rather than asymmetry of trust. The presence of proper safety measures and conditions (positive or nonrisk information) was found to have at least the same—and in some cases an even higher—impact on trust than the absence of such measures and conditions (negative or risky information) had on distrust. Findings provide empirical evidence for the thesis that the prevalence of trust asymmetry is dependent on the risk source and demonstrate that trust is symmetric rather than asymmetric in the context of voluntary tourism risks. Furthermore, results imply an influence of positive versus negative expectations as well as of prior trusting relationships on the occurrence of the asymmetry principle.     

International offshoring of services: A parity study

Conventional wisdom suggests that firms engage in international offshoring of services primarily to reduce wage costs associated with a given service activity. Drawing on international business research on the costs of doing business abroad (CODBA), liability of foreignness (LOF), and institutional theory, we investigate the factors that contribute to the location choices for services offshoring activity, including wage differentials between the home and host countries. We find that consistent with a parity perspective but contrary to conventional expectations, a country is more likely to be a destination of services offshoring as the average wage of a country increases. We also find that education level and cultural similarity are significant drivers of offshoring location choices, again consistent with a parity perspective. This study contributes to debates about the economic impact of services offshoring by showing that firms locate offshoring facilities in destinations that are closer in wages to the home country and those with higher education levels and cultural similarity.     

The development of global IT infrastructure

A research model of the impact of a multinational corporations’ (MNC) global strategic orientation on global IT infrastructure was developed using global integration, or the degree to which a global strategy is actually implemented, as a mediator. A “matched pair” survey of 94 MNCs was conducted (two respondents per firm) in order to guard against common source bias. The results showed that the firms that pursue a globally oriented strategy actually enacted these strategies as indicated by a wide-variety of resource flows across national units. The role of the level of global integration as a mediator between global strategic orientation and global IT capabilities was empirically demonstrated. This confirms that a global strategy is not sufficient to ensure that an enabling IT infrastructure will be developed; rather it is the actual level of integration and interdependence that is achieved as a result of the strategy that drives IT infrastructure. The primary areas in which global integration was found to be closely linked to the global IT infrastructure were human resources, which significantly influenced the reach, range, support services and planning of the global IT infrastructure, and information resources which significantly influenced the planning dimension of the infrastructure. These results strongly suggest that the transfer of people among national units creates an information needs “pull” which leads to the development of better IT infrastructure and that the “push” of standardized information also contributes positively.     

Quality Function Deployment and operational design decisions – a healthcare infrastructure development case study

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how QFD can enhance a healthcare organisation’s strategic operational alignment, by synchronising the infrastructure design with the service intention. In this empirical paper, a case study of a £15 million infrastructure development has been used as the unique context to assess and test the experimental findings. QFD was utilised in order to capture and transform the requirements of decision-makers, providers, patients and local communities into both service and building design for Project K, a healthcare infrastructure, in the U.K. Two full iterations of the QFD results are presented. Using QFD generated effectiveness and efficiency by creating an information exchange platform and providing the stakeholders with a framework to optimise the decision-making. This paper makes a practical contribution by empirically testing the QFD modelling and providing evidence of its implementation within the complex, dynamic and evolving nature of the healthcare built environment sector.