试论经济结构与人口转变

人口转变论是以西欧人口出生率和死亡率的历史资料为依据,对人口发展不同阶段作出描述性说明的理论。其基本观点认为,人口发展不是一个独立自行运动的过程,而与社会经济条件变化密切相关;人口的发展过程可以划分为三个阶段,与这三个阶段相适应,人口再生产分别呈现出“高—高—低”、“高—低—高”和“低—低—低”三种形式。虽然各国人口再生产的转变情况和转变动因     

人口转变过度论——人口负增长下对传统人口转变理论的再思考

根据世界人口发展新趋势,在传统人口转变理论框架的基础上,提出人口转变过度理论,并认为当前人类人口转变远未完成。随着各国生育率持续下降,人类人口发展表现出“较低出生率、较高死亡率、负自然增长率”的特点,并正逐渐由发达国家向其他国家蔓延,我们将这一人口发展模式称为“人口转变过度”。首先,人口转变过度这一人口发展特征的存在意味着传统人口转变中出现的“低出生率、低死亡率、低自然增长率”并不是人类人口发展的最终形态,但人类社会又不可能永远处于人口负增长的状态下,人类自身再生产水平终将会回升到更替水平左右,因而人口转变过度又可以分为“人口转变恶化”和“人口转变回归”两个子阶段。其次,虽然人口转变过度是在传统人口转变基础上形成的,但与传统人口转变存在明显差异,是一个相对独立的人口发展阶段,最主要特征是人口规模持续负增长。再次,人口转变过度形成的原因在于维持高生育率的经济、社会和文化基础发生了改变,是社会生产力进一步提高和社会经济持续发展所产生的客观结果。人类走出人口转变过度的关键是人口再生产水平回升并长期稳定在世代更替水平左右,这依然要有赖于生产力的进一步发展,以及建立与之相适应的生产关系。最后,世...     

老年发展论——21世纪成功老龄化战略的基本框架

人口老龄化有三大挑战 ,而衡量寿命质量则有四个尺度。在对待老年的态度和有关老年的文化上 ,我国存在着两大误区。从倡导健康老龄化到提倡积极老龄化是人类老龄观的重大变革。本文提出了“老年发展”理论假说。“老年发展”是指通过积极老龄化的各种途径和方式来增强老年资本的存量 ,进而降低老龄化的各种风险和冲击。老年资本包括了健康资本、经济资本、网络资本和知能资本。老年人的健康发展、角色发展、认知发展和价值发展是应予关注的四个方面     

成渝地区双城经济圈人口结构特征及空间分布影响因素研究——基于第六、七次全国人口普查数据

人口结构演变正深刻地影响着社会经济的发展方式,明晰其空间分布特征及主要影响因素对促进区域协调与高质量可持续发展具有重要作用。文章基于第六、七次全国人口普查数据,探讨了2010～2020年成渝地区双城经济圈人口结构特征,利用随机效应回归模型将影响人口空间分布的外部环境因素与内部结构因素统一纳入“内外交互作用”框架分析并优化对策建议。结果表明：(1)人口结构是一个综合性概念,涉及到人口年龄、性别、受教育程度、城乡结构与规模等属性。成渝地区双城经济圈人口老龄化现象严重,且围绕“双核心”地区呈带状分布,重庆地区男女性别比普遍高于四川地区,主要与地区产业结构相关,人口数量、受教育程度以及城镇化率大幅提升,且空间上围绕“双核心”地区呈明显“核心-外围”特征。(2)人口具有自我发展的生产性及空间分布的流动性,表征为源于内部结构变化的自然增长和源于外部环境影响的机械增长,是地方化与区域化相互作用的共同结果,包括区域经济社会发展水平等外部因素以及人口结构内部因素使区域人口“流”发生变化,研究结果表明外部环境因素引致的人口流动和机械增长作用更明显,而人口自我生产性的下降负向影响着人口的空间分布。(3)人口...     

人口转变进程中的人口老龄化——兼以中国为例

人口老龄化其实是人口转变所必然引致的一个人口学后果 ,是人口转变中的两个基本要素———出生率与死亡率———相继下降导致了人口年龄结构的“老化”。一次人口转变过程的完成不仅是出生率与死亡率由高向低的下降过程 ,同时也是人口年龄结构由低向高的“抬升” ,即“老化”过程。当然 ,人口转变与人口老龄化在发生时间上并不同步 ,前者始于死亡率的下降 ,后者始于出生率的下降 ,由于两者初始下降所存在的“时滞”效应 ,因而人口老龄化的显现在时间上总是晚于人口转变。人口转变对人口老龄化的影响在不同的演进阶段有着不同的表现 ,一般讲 ,在人口转变初期出现的是人口年轻化 ,或称“逆老龄化” ;到了人口转变中期 ,出现以生育率下降为主导的 ,具有相对意义的“底部老龄化” ;当人口转变进入后期阶段 ,代之而起的将是以死亡率下降为主导的 ,具有绝对意义的“顶端老龄化”。     

农村老年人老化态度变动轨迹:基于积极老龄化框架的实证考察

基于积极老龄化理论框架和“中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查”面板数据,文章从积极和消极两个维度对农村老年人老化态度问题进行实证考察。研究发现,两种老化态度均以2008年为重要转折点,女性老化态度比男性更具多样性和多变性。健康、社会参与和保障都能引起老化态度的积极变动,但社会适应、子女经济支持和社区照料三个因素对消极老化态度有正向影响,而生产活动降低了积极老化态度水平。从贡献率看,健康因素对老化态度差异贡献最大,其次是保障因素、社会参与因素,健康因素更能解释积极老化态度的变化,社会参与因素对消极老化态度的贡献率更高,二者分别在女性和男性老年人群体中表现得更为明显。贡献率排在前四位的因素是精神健康、子女经济支持、医疗可及性和身体健康。用积极老龄化的观点帮助庞大的农村老年人口建立正确的老化态度将有益于养老问题的解决。     

社区照料服务可及性对城市老年人生活满意度的影响

文章利用2011、2014和2018年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据（CLHLS），实证检验社区照料服务可及性对城市老年人生活满意度的影响。研究发现：（1）社区照料服务可及性显著提升了老年人生活满意度评价为“很好”和“好”的概率，降低了“一般”和“不好、很不好”的概率。（2）异质性检验结果表明，社区照料服务可及性对于自我健康感知较差、对非家庭成员有社会依赖、仅与子女同住或与配偶及子女共同居住的老年人生活满意度提升效果更显著。（3）对于目前尚无照料需求的老人，社区照料服务可及性减轻了其焦虑程度，进而提高了生活满意度；对于有实际照料需求的老人，在家庭照料未满足时社区照料服务可及性能够显著提升其生活满意度。文章认为，应充分认识社区照料服务对老年人幸福晚年的价值和作用，提供全方位的社区照料服务，实现老有所护、老有所安，提升老年群体服务获得感、照料满足感和生活幸福感。     

超大城市新生代农民工就业满意度评价及其比较分析--以北京市为例

超大城市面临稳定保有一定数量农民工劳动力和控制人口规模的平衡问题,合理评价城市劳动力新生力量———新生代农民工的就业满意度,有利于客观反映新生代农民工的就业状态与现实诉求,并为超大城市提高农民工就业质量提供支持。以北京地区新生代农民工为研究对象,在明确就业满意度构成因素的基础上,运用因子分析法构建适合新生代农民工城市就业特点的就业满意度模型和评价量表,并对新生代农民工的就业满意度进行分析评价。结果显示,新生代农民工在就业中更看重工作环境、职业发展和晋升机会,对报酬的关注度有所下降,这与已有研究结果有所不同;新生代农民工整体的就业满意度较低,其中更换工作的机会、涨薪机会、晋升机会、与老板关系的不满是导致满意度低的最主要原因;新生代农民工内部存在代际分化,“90后”农民工的就业满意度显著高于“80后”;文化程度、所从事的岗位、婚姻状况对新生代农民工的就业满意度都有显著影响。     

苏南模式与人口转变

苏南地区是指江苏南部的苏州、无锡、常州3市及所辖的12个县(包括6个县级市).这一地区以其推动农村社会经济全面综合发展的“苏南模式”而引起中外瞩目;人口发展也因进入了“三低”(低出生率、低死亡率和低自然增长率)阶段同样引起普遍关注.它所呈现的相对稳定的出生率,同全国的出生率在降至20%左右出现连续回升、波动形成鲜明对照.更具意义的是,这一人口转变是在广大农村地区实现的,由此呈现的先导性和人口转变经验,显示了重要的理论价值和现实意义.     

互联网使用与中国老年人的积极老龄化——基于2016年中国老年社会追踪调查数据的分析

本研究在积极老龄化的框架下,使用2016年中国老年社会追踪调查数据,在微观个体层面分析使用互联网这一行为对老年人的健康、社会参与和生活满意度的影响。本研究通过主观自评健康、抑郁倾向和社会适应三个指标来测量健康水平;主要使用老年人的社会活动参与项目数量来衡量社会参与水平。另外,本文还分析了使用互联网与老年人生活满意度之间的关系。研究使用描述统计、一般线性回归和倾向值匹配方法得到以下结论:互联网使用对老年人实现积极老龄化有显著的正向促进作用,使用互联网不仅能提高老年人的自评健康、心理健康、社会适应水平,也能促进老年人的社会参与,还能够提高老年人整体的生活满意度。老年人使用互联网的功能越多,各方面指标的正向提升越大。在使用互联网的老年人中,不同的互联网功能(聊天、看影视剧、玩游戏、看新闻、购物、炒股等)会对老年人的各项指标产生不同的影响。本研究结果具有重要的政策启示意义:在国家大力推行"互联网+"养老和智慧养老的背景下,应鼓励老年人接触和学习使用互联网,提高老年人互联网使用率;为老年人提供接触和使用智能手机的途径;为老年人提供上网培训,使老年人学会使用网络的多种功能。     

Aging and Life Satisfaction

This paper was intended to examine how major life events – suchas retirement, deterioration of health, and loss of spouse –experienced in the aging process may affect the elderly's lifesatisfaction. An explanation was also proposed to the change inthe effects of age groups on life satisfaction because of thecontrol of the aging effect. A simple form of a longitudinalsurvey conducted in Taiwan in 1989 and 1993 was used for theempirical test. It was found that life satisfaction among theelderly decreased as age increased beyond 65 years of age. Itwas also found that social demographic variables, an incomedecrease, living arrangement, and level of activity participationhave a profound impact on life satisfaction of Taiwan's elderly. When the correlates were controlled, the coefficients for agegroups greater than 70 turned positive. This change could beexplained by two types of cohort experience: (1) from rough toprosperous life experience and (2) cohort norm on lifeexpectancy.     

Gender as a Moderator of the Relation Among Social Support Functions and Life Satisfaction in Older Malaysians

The aim of this study was to examine the moderating role of gender on relations among social support functions and life satisfaction in older Malaysians. The study sample was 1,800 older residents in a community; all were at least 60 years old. This study was a cross-sectional and corelational survey, and the data were collected by multistage stratified sampling. This study revealed that fewer social support functions, and therefore less life satisfaction, were available for females than for males. The results of moderated regression analyses demonstrated that gender interacted only on the relationship between positive social interaction support and tangible support with life satisfaction. Specifically, at a high tangible support level, females had lower life satisfaction when compared to a low tangible support level. There may be a need for new programs and services to provide other aspects of social support to older female adults to improve and maintain life satisfaction in later life.     

Life Quality measures of smoking

The cost of smoking has three principal dimensions: money, reduced life expectancy, and diminished health. Each component can be quantified; all have an influence on the quality and duration of life. The combined influence can be evaluated using an aggregated social indicator, such as the Life Quality Index. It can be expressed in various ways, e.g. as an equivalent move to a nation or to a time with a lower level of the LQI, as an equivalent economic loss, or as an equivalent loss of life expectancy. To illustrate, the analysis is applied to Danish data on smoking; the cost for a typical pack-a-day habit is equivalent to a 57% reduction in personal income, 8.6 years loss of life expectancy, or a 4% drop in the Life Quality Index. These measures underscore the seriousness of smoking as a health hazard.     

How are the Kids Doing? How do We Know?

With a focus on the United States, this paper addresses the basic social indicators question: How are we doing? More specifically, with respect to children, how are our kids (including adolescents and youths) doing? These questions can be addressed by comparisons: (1) to past historical values, (2) to other contemporaneous units (e.g., comparisons among subpopulations, states, regions, countries), or (3) to goals or other externally established standards. The Child and Youth Well-Being Index (CWI), which we have developed over the past decade, uses all three of these points of comparison. The CWI is a composite index based on 28 social indicator time series of various aspects of the well-being of children and youth in American society that date back to 1975, which is used as a base year for measuring changes (improvements or deterioration) in subsequent years. The CWI is evidence-based not only in the sense that it uses time series of empirical data for its construction, but also because the 28 indicators are grouped into seven domains of well-being or areas of social life that have been found to define the conceptual space of the quality of life in numerous studies of subjective well-being. Findings from research using the CWI reported in the paper include: (1) trends in child and youth well-being in the United States over time, (2) international comparisons, and (3) best-practice analyses.     

A test of the utility of social indicators for behavioral health service planning

Given current imperatives for more effective, responsive, and economical government, policy planners and administrators are seeking increasing assistance from social scientists. Here the usefulness of social indicators to the processes of policy planning and implementation in the delivery of mental health, alcohol and drug abuse services is investigated to determine whether social indicator data can contribute to more effective policy planning. In a two part study, the relationship between social indicators and Specific sources of these data were: population total, subdivided by geographic area and race (Caucasian, Black, and Other, which in Arizona is virtually all Native Americans) from the 1975 special census; population by age and ratio of dissolutions to marriages from the Arizona Statistical Review for 1977; crime rates from the Arizona State Justice Planning Agency for 1975; and cause of death rates from the Bureau of Vital Statistics, Arizona Department of Health Services for 1975. Subjective measures of psychological well-being were not available for the internal validational component of the study. state wide service utilization rates and The Negative Affect Scale measures the individual's level of anxiety, worry, loneliness, and sadness, and is associated with other measures that have been used in epidemiological studies to identify persons with psychological difficulties. The Psychiatric Screening Inventory assesses an individual's level of psychiatric impairment as evidenced by the frequency with which he or she reports having experienced each of the 22 psychological and psychosomatic symptoms on the scale. It has also been used in numerous epidemiological studies to investigated levels of impairment among various populations. The Positive Affect Scale reflects the degree to which the person is involved with, interested in, and experiences control over his or her physical and social environment. Active involvement with the world and frequent social participation are considered to be conducive to the experience of positive affect. The Perceived Quality of Life Scale measures the degree to which the persons is satisfied with the quality of his or her life. The score on this scale is a composite of the respondent's level of satisfaction in different areas of life such as standard of living, health, personal functioning, and family life. The greater the satisfaction in these separate areas, the higher will be the individual's overall evaluation of the quality of his or her life. psychological well-being in the community is examined. Both objective and subjective social indicators were studied. Both types of indicators were found to be useful and complementary in identifying service needs and states of well-being in the community.     

Age Cohort Differences in the Developmental Milestones of Gay Men

ABSTRACT

As the social context in which gay men live changes due to greater visibility, greater acceptance, and easier access to gay subculture, gay males may self-identify and take part in gay social activities at earlier ages than in the past. This study examined whether developmental milestones associated with sexual orientation for gay men have changed over the past several decades. A large and diverse sample of 2,402 gay men who responded to a 1994 survey published in a national magazine provided retrospective information on the age at which they reached individual psychological, social, and sexual behavior developmental milestones. We found evidence that individual psychological and sexual behavior milestones (e.g., awareness of attraction to males, having an orgasm with other male) are slowly moving toward earlier chronological ages (by 1 year of age every 8–25 years, p?<?0.05), whereas social milestones (e.g., coming out) are moving more rapidly in a similar direction (by 1 year of age every 2–5 years, p?<?0.001). The authors perform an innovative sensitivity test to demonstrate the persistence of the finding after correcting for the bias attributable to underrepresentation of those who have not yet self-identified as gay in such samples.     

养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响及其代际差异--基于5省1573个样本的实证分析

利用5省22个乡镇1573个样本的调查数据,探讨了养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响及其代际差异。研究发现：第一,农民养老风险感知的普遍程度较高,家庭养老保障能力评估是影响农民养老风险感知的重要因素,新农保作为一种有限保障并不能降低农民的养老风险感知。第二,农民的养老风险感知存在代际差异,其中家庭养老保障能力评估和社会养老保障能力评估对农民养老风险感知的影响存在代际差异,这主要是因为不同代际农民的养老观念、消费观念、所处的人生阶段存在差异所形成的。由此提出政府要正确认识农民的养老风险感知及其代际差异,着力在增加农民收入和提高新农保待遇水平两方面采取措施降低农民的养老风险感知,以避免养老危机的发生。     

Money, Sociability and Happiness: Are Developed Countries Doomed to Social Erosion and Unhappiness?

Discovering whether social capital endowments in modern societies have been subjected or not to a process of gradual erosion is one of the most debated topics in recent economic literature. Inaugurated by Putnam??s pioneering studies, the debate on social capital trends has been recently revived by Stevenson and Wolfers (2008) contending Easterlin??s assessment. Present work is aimed at finding evidence for the relationship between changes in social capital and subjective well-being in western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan between 1980 and 2005. In particular, I would like to answer questions such as: (1) is social capital in western Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan declining? Is such erosion a general trend of modern and richer societies or is it a characteristic feature of the American one? (2) can social capital trend help explain subjective well-being trend? Therefore, present research considers three different set of proxies of social capital controlling for time and socio-demographic aspects using WVS-EVS data between 1980 and 2005. Present results are encouraging, showing evidence of positive correlation between several proxies of social capital and both happiness and life satisfaction. Furthermore, results show that during last twenty-five years people in some of the most modern and developed countries have persistently lost confidence in the judicial system, religious institutions, parliament and civil service.     

Socio-economic Differentials in Infant and Child Mortality during Mortality Decline: England and Wales, 1890–1911

In this paper data from the 1911 Census of the Fertility of Marriage of England and Wales are used to study patterns of mortality decline by socio-economic characteristics, principally the occupation of husband. That census reported data on number of wives, children ever born, and children dead by marriage-duration cohorts for 190 non-overlapping occupations of husband. These results, along with those on number of rooms in the dwelling of the family are used to make indirect estimates of childhood mortality using the techniques described in United Nations, Manual X. These procedures produce values of q(a), the probability of dying before reaching some exact age ‘a’. Estimates for q(2), q(3), q(5), q(10), q(15), and q(20) are derived from data on women married 0–4, 5–9, 10–14, 15–19, 20–24, and 25–29 years, respectively. These estimates can also be dated to a point in the past. These values can also be converted to a corresponding level of a Model West life table, which describes the ‘average’ mortality regime which the children of those women experienced. This furnishes a basis to look at mortality decline for various social classes and occupational groups. Ordinary least squares regressions of the levels of Model West life tables implied by the 1(a) values on time give one measure of mortality decline. Another is the absolute amount of the increase in the level of the Model West life tables from marriage-duration cohort 20–24 years to 0–4 years. The aggregate results indicate that social class in England and Wales during the 1890s and 1900s tended to be related to the speed of mortality decline: childhood mortality declined more rapidly in the higher and more privileged social class groups. But the results were neither nearly as strong nor as regular as those which predicted the level of mortality within any marriage-duration cohort. These outcomes are not particularly sensitive to the three different social-class stratification schemes used: the 1911 English Registrar General's classification; the 1951 English Registrar General's classification; and the 1950 U.S. Census classification. There was also a fairly regular and predictable gradient for the number of rooms in the home: child mortality was higher in families who lived in larger dwellings. Analysis of 190 detailed male occupational groups revealed that considerably more of the variation in mortality levels than of trends could be explained by social-class categories. Between 20 and 40 per cent of variation in mortality trend could be accounted for by social class alone, as opposed to 50 to 80 per cent of mortality levels for different marriage-duration cohorts. Results for a more restricted sample of 116 occupations for which income estimates could be made revealed a similar pattern. In addition, income was virtually unrelated to the pattern of mortality decline, and improvement was more rapid in groups who were more urban. This reflects the role of rapidly improving urban sanitation in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in England. In contrast, income was significantly related to childhood morality levels for various marriage-duration cohorts (with higher income associated with lower mortality), while urbanization was inversely correlated with mortality levels (more urban groups experienced higher mortality). Overall, social class (or occupation group), income, and urbanization were more successful in explaining mortality levels than time trends across occupations, although social class and the extent of urbanization did reasonably well in accounting for trends. Over a longer period, the transition in child mortality was under way by the 1890s, but its pace and timing varied in different occupations and social class groupings. Although absolute differences in infant mortality were reduced after about 1911, relative inequality persisted even as infant and child survival improved for all groups.