新疆老年人口结构差异及其问题研究--基于新疆第四次、五次和六次人口普查数据的分析

中国社会已然进入老龄化社会,老龄问题成为中国未来经济社会发展的重大社会问题之一。新疆作为多民族地区和经济欠发达地区,其老龄化问题有其自身特征,进行区域性的老龄化结构问题研究能够了解新疆老龄化的现状和具体问题,为解决区域性的老龄化问题提供科学依据,促进新疆地方性社会的长治久安。基于新疆第四、五和六三次人口普查资料的统计分析,研究发现,新疆老年人口结构存在区域性不平衡、汉族老龄化进程快于少数民族、老龄人社会经济地位较低、老龄妇女问题较为突出和老年公共文化需求等方面的问题。文章提出推进区域老年经济产业发展、对汉族老龄化进行政策干预、推进地方产业结构升级、发展老龄妇女养老服务事业和老年社会公共文化建设的对策建议。     

新世纪、新阶段人口研究和人口工作

文章分析了低生育水平下实现全面建设小康社会人口研究和人口工作的课题,总结了人口工作成功的主要经验,考察了新时期的人口新情况,质疑传统人口转变理论最后阶段的历程,提出从承载力、城市化、就业与社会保障、人口管理制度、低生育水平下的计划生育、老龄化、新的人口研究领域等方面进一步拓展人口和人口工作。     

西藏自治区人口较少民族发展问题研究

人口较少民族因其居民较少、大多居住在边境区或者偏远区域、以农业生产为主等原因,导致区域社会、经济发展滞后,与其他少数民族相比,有更大的特殊性。论文以西藏自治区人口较少民族为例,分析了这一区域人口较少民族社会经济现状,认为社会事业发展滞后尤其是教育文化事业发展缓慢是限制区域发展的主要因素,另一方面,人口较少民族人口增长较快又加剧了社会事业发展的困难,人口较少民族聚居区发展中面临财政、人才等方面的困难。基于此,文章从社会事业发展、人才引进、财政补贴等方面探讨西藏人口较少民族发展对策,为西藏边境地区发展及＂兴边富民＂政策的落实提供依据。     

从人口转变到人口均衡

我国快速实现人口转变,使老龄化社会于世纪之交提前到来.在一定的资源环境和技术、制度条件下,统筹解决好人口总量较大与结构矛盾突出的"两难"问题,成为现阶段人口均衡发展的基本命题.如果及时实施全面两孩政策,并择机进一步调整人口及相关经济社会政策,将妇女生育水平提高到1.8左右并逐步回归到更替水平上下,那么,未来三、四十年,我国人口将趋向于一个稳定人口,年龄构成和城乡构成将大体稳定下来,60岁及以上老年人口比例约为1/3,老龄化程度达到发达国家的整体水平,但仍低于德国、日本等国家的水平,城镇化率达到75％左右;届时,人力资本积累居世界前列,基本实现国家现代化,人口自身各要素之间及其与经济社会资源环境之间可望保持总体协调.     

中国信仰伊斯兰教的十个民族人口发展分析

本文根据第五次人口普查资料,及中国十个信仰伊斯兰教的民族在建国后50年来人口变化的情况,对中国穆斯林人口的发展变化,人口的文化素质,出生和死亡率的特点,人口年龄构成,职业构成,人口性别比,婚姻与家庭,人口分布的现状等进行了分析与对比研究。     

人口较少族群人口增长由负转正的过程、原因及启示--以蒙古族图瓦人为例北大核心CSSCI

2000~2010年期间,我国有13个少数民族的人口出现了负增长现象,但尚未有研究厘清其背后原因。蒙古族图瓦人作为一个发生过人口负增长的人口较少族群,却在2006年实现人口增长“由负转正”,其成功经验对于人口负增长民族的人口发展具有重要意义。文章通过分析蒙古族图瓦人人口变动数据发现,其人口增长“由负转正”的主要原因是死亡率大幅下降。根据实地调研结果,发生这一转变的关键在于积极推行健康的生活方式、提高医疗卫生资源可及性以及经济发展反哺民生。蒙古族图瓦人人口增长“由负转正”的成功经验表明,应高度重视少数民族特别是人口较少民族的人口负增长问题,精准识别人口负增长的风险因素,并采取针对性的措施促进民族人口发展。     

21世纪中国人口面临的艰难抉择──生育率与人口规模·老龄化的前瞻

总人口、老年人口规模与生育率呈正向变化以及老龄化程度与生育率呈反向变化的矛盾, 决定了低生育率导致人口数量较少但高度老龄化; 高生育率导致人口规模扩大但老龄化程度较低,造成未来生育政策调整的艰难抉择。促进人口与社会经济、资源环境的协调发展和可持续发展是未来中国发展的最主要矛盾,继续坚持低生育率政策,坚持严格控制人口数量是首要任务     

健康投资对人口老龄化的影响分析——基于人口均衡发展的视角

健康投入的快速增长将对人口老龄化发展产生重要影响。基于人口均衡发展的视角,研究发现,健康投入对老龄化的影响作用不仅仅体现在老年人口数量方面,还体现于老年人口的结构,诸如年龄、性别、城乡状况等方面,进而会使未来的老龄化社会出现规模老龄化、高龄老龄化、性别失衡老龄化以及农村健康不安全老龄化等新的特征,我国老龄化问题亦将由数量压迫型向数量增长和结构失衡并存型转变。而对老年人口实施健康和人力资源管理,推进城乡健康公平则是应对未来老龄化问题的重要举措。     

凉山彝族自治州少数民族人口变化研究

本文根据凉山州历年人口资料和最近几年全国1％人口抽样调查数据,分析讨论了凉山彝族自治州少数民族人口的变化。文章发现,总体上,民主改革以来,特别是改革开放以来,凉山州少数民族人口发展取得了较大的进展,但少数民族人口还存在着人口增长较快,少数民族人口文化素质偏低,人口负担重等问题,影响了少数民族地区人口和经济的发展,文章认为当前凉山社会经济发展正处于“战略关键期”,人口问题特别是少数民族人口问题是重要的决定性因素之一,是实现各民族共同繁荣的重要保证,必须予以高度重视。文章提出,要通过稳定人口规模,提高人口素质,开发人力资源,有目标、分阶段地推进人口发展,实现民族地区人口、经济、资源环境的可持续发展。     

贵州人口结构的民族特征及其嵌入式问题研究——基于"六普"数据的分析

相互嵌入是促进各民族在物质上和精神上相互交流交融的一种全新理念,有助于多民族社会的团结和人口发展.贵州作为多民族的人口大省,由于民族内部其人口的生育率、文化素质以及社会环境的差异性,人口结构的民族性问题较为突出,这在很大程度上不利于多民族互嵌型社会的建构.利用"六普"及相关数据,从嵌入式发展的视角概括和分析了贵州省各主要民族当前的人口结构特征及其问题,并提出对策建议.     

社会安全阀机制与贫富差距调适

当前,我国贫富差距较大已是一客观不争的社会事实。社会安全阀机制则起着调适贫富差距的作用,从而缓解了贫富差距所可能导致的利益和社会冲突,维持和促进了社会的稳定与发展。研究立足于贫富差距较大的客观现实,着重对现有社会安全阀机制进行分析,并指出在健全和完善相应社会安全阀机制的基础上消除较大的贫富差距。     

关于我国“民工荒”与农民工福利待遇的探讨

2004年前后在我国珠三角等地出现了"民工荒"现象,这是否意味着我国农村劳动力乡-城迁移已经接近尾声,从而农村实现土地规模化经营的时机已经成熟?本文根据托达罗模型,利用成本-收益分析法,提出这是农民进城务工收入与务农收入之间差距缩小导致的农村劳动力做出的非迁移决策.并探讨了设置农民工福利项目对劳动力市场和企业雇佣成本的影响.     

Childhood disadvantages and the timing of the onset of natural menopause in Latin America and the Caribbean

The aim of this study is to investigate the association of early life factors with the timing of the onset of natural menopause in Costa Rica and Puerto Rico. We use Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the risk of the onset of menopause. Our results suggest that socioeconomic disadvantages, as expressed by difficulties attending school due to economic hardships or parents never living together, increase the risk of the onset of natural menopause among Puerto Rican women. Among Costa Rican women, early life nutrition, estimated using anthropometric measures, is related to the timing of the onset of natural menopause.     

Patriarchy and the Horror of the Monstrous Feminine

This paper compares the gender politics expressed in Ringu and The Ring, paying particular attention to specific and noteworthy distinctions and crucial underlying cultural differences that structure and shape the gender politics articulated in the two films. While highlighting the divergences in the films' narratives and examining how their depictions of female characters reveal the fundamental historical, cultural, social and ideological forces that structure Eastern and Western views of femininity, women, and their roles in society, this paper argues that although both films reflect a misogynist patriarchal perspective in their depiction of evil, violent, destructive females, it is the American remake that is ultimately more conservative and reactionary in its simplistic alignment of women, the feminine and maternity with evil and monstrosity. In comparison, the Japanese original offers a more ambiguous treatment of a key female character, the mysterious and deadly Sadako, allowing her to emerge as a potential figure of resistance against conservative patriarchy, an element that is distinctly absent in the American remake.     

The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo,the boom and the bust

This paper analyzes the pattern of fluctuations of births in an age-structured population whose growth is subject to environmental or economic constraint. It synthesizes the traditional demographic analysis of age-structured renewal with constant vital rates and the economic analysis which treats population change endogenously. When cohort fertility depends on relative cohort size, or when period fertility depends on labor force size, fluctuations of forty or more years replace the traditional "echo" or generation-length cycle. Twentieth-century U. S. fertility change agrees well with the theory, as the "Easterlin Hypothesis" suggests; but the period model fits better than the cohort model.     

Reliability and Validity of Japanese Versions of the Flourishing Scale and the Scale of Positive and Negative Experience

The demographic aging of the older population itself has turned out as an issue of great scope, accumulating a large amount of research in recent years. In this context, the prediction or explanation is of much interest. However, little research has studied this prediction when some factors, such as age, gender, and perceived health are controlled, and also few studies have compared these effects in young old and oldest old populations. Thus, the purpose of this study is to test, in a multivariate context, the predictive effects of variables measuring social support, dependence/active perceptions, and generativity on satisfaction with life, while controlling for age, marital status, educational level, gender, and perceived health; examining young old and oldest old similitudes and differences in a little studied population, the Angolan elderly. The sample was formed by 1,003 participants, 737 were young old and 266 were oldest old. To test for the effects, a hierarchical regression was built up, in which age and predictor’s interactions were included. Results provide support for some differences in the pattern of relationships hold by young old and oldest old, with social support emerging as the major predictor of life satisfaction during the old age.     

依托法院力量开展人口计生专项执法的实践与探索

社会抚养费征收是长期困扰人口计生部门的一大难题 ,大量人口计生遗留案件的存在 ,不仅在群众中造成一定混乱 ,而且影响到党和政府的威信。《人口与计划生育法》和《重庆市人口与计划生育条例》颁布实施前夕 ,重庆市人口计生部门依托法院力量 ,在全市范围内开展了声势浩大的专项执法 ,重点处理人口计生遗留案件、清理人口出生漏统、规范行政执法案卷、开展普法教育 ,探索出一条大规模开展人口计生行政执法的新路。1　主要做法精心制定方案。 2 0 0 1年 8月 ,重庆市人口计生委和市高级人民法院在合川市联合召开了计划生育行政执法与诉讼座谈…     

女性就业与发展困境的原因探析

就业是妇女获得发展的一个重要方式 ,因为就业的期望以及工作中产生的问题和挑战是刺激人们学习新知识、新技能 ,从而获得发展的重要推动力量。但是 ,经济的、社会的、生理的因素限制了妇女就业以及进行人力资本再投资的机会 ,而且这些因素相互影响 ,相互作用。所以 ,克服妇女就业和发展的障碍需要政府制定政策支持妇女教育和培训 ,防止用人单位在雇用、培训、晋升等环节歧视女性     

On the theory and measurement of the determinants of mortality

This article develops a model of mortality that shows how biological, demographic, and environmental factors interact to affect an individual's probability of dying. To illustrate the usefulness of the model, we derive from it (as special cases) the Brass system of model life tables and the proportional-hazard mortality model and apply a logit version of the model to analyze the determinants of child mortality in Sri Lanka.     

On the Survival of Centenarians and the Span of Life

It has been argued in the literature that the observed mortality crossover among older black Americans relative to the white population is a result of ‘differential early mortality which selects the least robust persons from the disadvantaged population at relatively earlier ages so that, at advanced ages, the disadvantaged population has proportionately more robust persons’ (Kenneth G. Manton). The authors examine the plausibility of the observed black mortality crossover and the heterogeneity argument supporting its existence. In addition to citing evidence from the literature, they use life tables from various countries known to have good mortality data to explore the relation between mortality in childhood and at younger adult ages and mortality in old age for cohorts and periods. Analysis suggests that the association between childhood and old-age mortality for cohorts is positive, implying that observed mortality crossovers are produced by deficient data rather than population heterogeneity.