国外新产品扩散模型研究的新进展

总结回顾了1990年以后国外新产品扩散模型的主要研究进展,其成果主要体现在2个方面:①在Bass模型基础上的改进扩展模型,主要是引入营销组合变量、供给约束、竞争、补充性产品及产品更新换代的影响,并考虑成倍购买和“试用—再买”的情况;②脱离Bass模型的研究平台,开创全新架构的模型,包括购买力驱动、战略驱动、异质性驱动扩散模型,以及空间扩散和娱乐品扩散模型。比照1990年MAHA JAN等指出的11个未来的研究方向,可见1990年以来新产品扩散的研究取得了很大的进展,在一些方面的发展是突破性的,在另一些方面则严重不足。尤其是近年来新兴技术及其产品的迅猛增长应该成为未来研究关注的一个重点。     

双口碑效应下新产品扩散研究——以电影为例

作为产品体验的集中体现,口碑对新产品扩散的影响已越发明显。本文针对体验经济下新产品扩散问题,将口碑因素引入到经典Bass模型,从口碑规模效应和比例效应两个角度,对经典Bass模型进行了拓展,构建了双口碑效应下新产品扩散模型,并求得了模型解析解,通过性质分析对口碑与产品扩散的相关关系给出了理论证明。以电影为例,分别选取美国好莱坞2010至2014年间奥斯卡最佳提名影片42部和金酸梅奖最差提名影片23部合计65部电影样本进行实证分析,结果显示模型拟合绩效和预测绩效均有较好表现。     

广告媒介下两种产品竞争与扩散模型研究

本文基于巴斯模型在非垄断情形所遇到的产品扩散问题,提出了在广告媒介下两种产品的竞争与扩散模型,并对不同情况下产品竞争扩散过程进行了经济分析,推广了单产品巴斯扩散模型.为模拟和预测动态市场结构演变提供了理论依据.     

基于新产品的供应链最优生产策略

商业竞争与技术进步导致产品生命周期的缩短,要求企业能不断地推出新产品。而新产品的生产与需求是一个逐步适应和熟悉的过程,具有明显的学习效应。本文运用Bass模型来描述新产品的需求扩散效应,建立了新产品供、产、销三级供应链的生产存储优化模型,并通过算例,计算机模拟出最优生产批量。该研究改进了传统的一般产品的生产存储计划,对面向市场需求的供应链的新产品投产具有重要的指导意义。     

A Sales Forecast Model for Short‐Life‐Cycle Products: New Releases at Blockbuster

We develop, in this article, a sales model for movie and game products at Blockbuster. The model assumes that there are three sales components: the first is from consumers who have already committed to purchasing (or renting) a product (e.g., based on promotion of, or exposure to, the product prior to its launch); the second comes from consumers who are potential buyers of the product; and the third comes from either a networking effect on closely tied (as in a social group) potential buyers from previous buyers (in the case of movie rental and all retail products) or re‐rents (in the case of game rental). In addition, we explicitly formulate into our model dynamic interactions between these sales components, both within and across sales periods. This important feature is motivated by realism, and it significantly contributes to the accuracy of our model. The model is thoroughly tested against sales data for rental and retail products from Blockbuster. Our empirical results show that the model offers excellent fit to actual sales activity. We also demonstrate that the model is capable of delivering reasonable sales forecasts based solely on environmental data (e.g., theatrical sales, studio, genre, MPAA ratings, etc.) and actual first‐period sales. Accurate sales forecasts can lead to significant cost savings. In particular, it can improve the retail operations at Blockbuster by determining appropriate order quantities of products, which is critical in effective inventory management (i.e., it can reduce the extent of over‐stocking and under‐stocking). While our model is developed specifically for product sales at Blockbuster, we believe that with context‐dependent modifications, our modeling approach could also provide a reasonable basis for the study of sales for other short‐Life‐Cycle products.     

Customization: Impact on Product and Process Performance

Manufacturing capability has often been viewed to be a major obstacle in achieving higher levels of customization. Companies follow various strategies ranging from equipment selection to order process management to cope with the challenges of increased customization. We examined how the customization process affects product performance and conformance in the context of a design‐to‐order (DTO) manufacturer of industrial components. Our competing risk hazard function model incorporates two thresholds, which we define as mismatch and manufacturing thresholds. Product performance was adversely affected when the degree of customization exceeded the mismatch threshold. Likewise, product conformance eroded when the degree of customization exceeded the manufacturing threshold. Relative sizes of the two thresholds have management implications for the subsequent investments to improve customization capabilities. Our research developed a rigorous framework to address two key questions relevant to the implementation of product customization: (1) what degrees of customization to offer, and (2) how to customize the product design process.     

A Retrospective Look at Production and Operations Management Articles on New Product Development

We present a retrospective look at the articles on New Product Development that appeared in the first 50 issues of Production and Operations Management (POM). We discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of this POM literature stream. This article is not intended to be a literature review or an exhaustive review of the articles. Rather, we seek to identify new opportunities for rigorous and relevant research, research that has the potential of differentiating and enhancing POM within the Operations Management literature.     

社交网络情境下基于同侪影响的产品线规划研究

依托社交网络优化产品线是实现“匹配消费者需求带动产品设计-制造-营销全流程协调发展”的重要途径,尽管已经引起实业界的重点关注,相应的学术研究却十分匮乏。鉴于此,本文基于同侪影响理论与前景理论,结合社交网络情境下消费者的产品需求、偏好及决策,构建涵盖产品线营销层面和设计层面的双层规划模型;然后结合智能手机产品线实例,运用嵌套灰狼算法对该双层规划模型进行求解验证。本研究旨在提出社交网络与产品线规划之间耦合作用的联合优化框架,为面向社交网络的产品线规划提供理论依据。     

Joint Life‐Cycle Dynamics of New and Remanufactured Products

Many products considered for remanufacturing are durables that exhibit a well‐pronounced product life cycle—they diffuse gradually through the market. The remanufactured product, which is a cheaper substitute for the new product, is often put on the market during the life cycle of the new product and affects its sales dynamics. In this paper, we study the integrated dynamic management of a portfolio of new and remanufactured products that progressively penetrate a potential market over the product life cycle. To this end, we extend the Bass diffusion model in a way that maintains the two essential features of remanufacturing settings: (a) substitution between new and remanufactured products, and (b) a constraint on the diffusion of remanufactured products due to the limited supply of used products that can be remanufactured. We identify characteristics of the diffusion paths of new and remanufactured products. Finally, we analyze the impact of levers such as remanufacturability level, capacity profile and reverse channel speed on profitability.     

Changes in Product Attributes and Costs as Drivers of New Product Diffusion and Substitution

Diffusion theory has typically focused on how communication, internal or external to a social system, leads to adoptions and diffusion of an innovation. We develop a diffusion and substitution model based on a somewhat different perspective. In some cases, progressive improvements in product attributes and/or continual cost reduction seem to be a key driver of the diffusion process. For example, after introduction of the 5.25‐inch disk drive, its capacity continually increased, and accordingly, so did customer willingness‐to‐pay. Our model is based on a linear reservation price framework, in which a product is described by its depth (defined as the difference between a product̂s maximum reservation price and its production cost), and its breadth (related to the slope of its reservation price curve), indicating how broadly it appeals across various customer segments. Because of changes in product depths and breadths over time, customers who previously preferred the old product may later prefer the new product, thus creating the diffusion process. While the Bass model describes diffusion as a function of the coefficients of innovation and imitation, in our model, it is described by the coefficients of depth and breadth (the rates of change in relative depth and breadth), along with an S‐coefficient that we associate with the technology S‐curve. We fit our model to data from the disk‐drive and the microprocessor industries.     

The Impact of Capacity Costs on Product Differentiation in Delivery Time,Delivery Reliability,and Price

We develop an analytical framework for studying the role capacity costs play in shaping the optimal differentiation strategy in terms of prices, delivery times, and delivery reliabilities of a profit‐maximizing firm selling two variants (express and regular) of a product in a capacitated environment. We first investigate three special cases. The first is an existing model of price and delivery time differentiation with exogenous reliabilities, which we only review. The second focuses on time‐based (i.e., length and reliability) differentiation with exogenous prices. The third deals with deciding on all features for an express variant when a regular product already exists in the marketplace. We subsequently address the integrative framework of time‐and‐price‐based differentiation for both products in a numerical study. Our results shed light on the role that customer preferences towards delivery times, reliabilities and prices, and the capacity costs (absolute and relative) have on the firm's optimal product positioning policy.     

Opt‐Out Options in New Product Co‐development Partnerships

We study three contractual arrangements—co‐development, licensing, and co‐development with opt‐out options—for the joint development of new products between a small and financially constrained innovator firm and a large technology company, as in the case of a biotech innovator and a major pharma company. We formulate our arguments in the context of a two‐stage model, characterized by technical risk and stochastically changing cost and revenue projections. The model captures the main disadvantages of traditional co‐development and licensing arrangements: in co‐development the small firm runs a risk of running out of capital as future costs rise, while licensing for milestone and royalty (M&R) payments, which eliminates the latter risk, introduces inefficiency, as profitable projects might be abandoned. Counter to intuition we show that the biotech's payoff in a licensing contract is not monotonically increasing in the M&R terms. We also show that an option clause in a co‐development contract that gives the small firm the right but not the obligation to opt out of co‐development and into a pre‐agreed licensing arrangement avoids the problems associated with fully committed co‐development or licensing: the probability that the small firm will run out of capital is greatly reduced or completely eliminated and profitable projects are never abandoned.     

制造商竞争环境下基于产品生命周期的闭环供应链的定价和生产策略研究

研究制造商竞争环境下基于产品生命周期的闭环供应链的定价和生产策略:产品第一个生命周期中,只有一个制造商利用原材料生产新制造产品,从第二个周期开始制造商生产新品的同时进行回收再制造、并且出现替代品生产商的竞争。建立两周期双寡头垄断的闭环供应链定价和生产优化模型,得到最优策略,然后将其扩展到多周期和无限周期的情况。结果表明:两周期中制造商应根据再制造成本节约的大小而采取不同的定价和生产策略;多周期中,除第一和最后一个周期外,制造商应采取相同的策略;无限周期中,制造商应在出现竞争后一直采用相同策略。三种情况下,制造商都应在第一周期中低价销售产品来保证第二周期中能回收更多的产品用于再制造以取得低成本的竞争优势;而且随着再制造产品成本节约的增大,制造商旳利润和销售量增大,并且竞争者的利润和销售量减小。算例验证了上述结论。     

Inventory Rationing in a Make‐to‐Stock System with Batch Production and Lost Sales

We address an inventory rationing problem in a lost sales make‐to‐stock (MTS) production system with batch ordering and multiple demand classes. Each production order contains a single batch of a fixed lot size and the processing time of each batch is random. Assuming that there is at most one order outstanding at any point in time, we first address the case with the general production time distribution. We show that the optimal order policy is characterized by a reorder point and the optimal rationing policy is characterized by time‐dependent rationing levels. We then approximate the production time distribution with a phase‐type distribution and show that the optimal policy can be characterized by a reorder point and state‐dependent rationing levels. Using the Erlang production time distribution, we generalize the model to a tandem MTS system in which there may be multiple outstanding orders. We introduce a state‐transformation approach to perform the structural analysis and show that both the reorder point and rationing levels are state dependent. We show the monotonicity of the optimal reorder point and rationing levels for the outstanding orders, and generate new theoretical and managerial insights from the research findings.     

顾客依赖及其对顾客参与新产品开发的影响

为了降低新产品开发的风险,企业越来越强调让顾客参与到新产品开发的过程中.以B2B市场为背景,基于企业的视角,以制度经济学中的依赖理论为基础,探讨组织市场中顾客参与新产品开发的动因,通过问卷调查法初步研究顾客依赖的影响因素及其对顾客参与新产品开发的影响.研究结果表明,在B2B市场中,环境的不确定性和交易专项投资对顾客依赖产生正向的影响,顾客依赖对顾客参与新产品开发具有正向影响,信任对顾客依赖与顾客参与新产品开发的关系有正向调节作用.最后,提出相关的营销建议.     

Complementary Drivers of New Product Development Performance: Cross‐Functional Coordination,Information System Capability,and Intelligence Quality

Coordination efforts that access and align relevant cross‐functional expertise are regarded as an essential element of innovation success. In recent years, these efforts have been further augmented through complementary investments in information systems, which provide the technological platforms for information sharing and coordination across functional and organizational boundaries. Somewhat overlooked has been the critical mediating role of the intelligence gained through these efforts and capabilities. This study draws on the theory of complementarity to elaborate on the nature of this mediating concept. Theoretical predictions of the model are tested using instrument variable regression analysis of data collected from a sample of publicly traded US manufacturing firms. The findings suggest that the effects of both internal and external coordination on market intelligence and supply‐chain intelligence are moderated by the firm's information system capability. The effect of both types of intelligence quality on new product development performance was contingent with the effects being enhanced (attenuated) when the market conditions were dynamic (stable). The results are robust to common‐method bias, endogeneity concerns, and alternative estimation methods.     

10‐year Anniversary of the New Product Development,R&D,and Project Management Department in Production and Operations Management—Progress,Thoughts, and Perspectives

The issue you are about to browse offers an opportunity to share many thanks, some observations, and a few forward‐looking thoughts about the department I have had the honor to edit over the last 4 years. It also offers an opportunity to expand the discussion beyond the boundaries of the particular department of Production and Operations Management (POM), and to take stock of the evolution path of the academic community that has formed around the department and its research topics over the past 10 years.     

Structural Constraints,Strategic Interactions and Innovative Processes: Measuring Network Effects in New Product Development Projects

In this paper I approach the analysis of innovation activities as relational processes first deriving the econometric specification of an endogenous model of network effect on individual outcome, and then using data on innovation projects to empirically test the impact on actors' performance of relational activities in new product development. A complete relational set of inter-unit relationships in 173 new product development projects among 24 R&D units of a profit oriented R&D organization is analyzed using mixed regressive-autoregressive models. Results show the importance of a network effects on unit's performance, after controlling for unit's attributional characteristics. The magnitude and directionality of these effects are sensitive to project characteristics, but not to the directionality of the ties. Implications for theory and research in innovation management are discussed by elaborating on the importance of the content of the ties to assess the impact of relational activities, and to examine client (i.e. ties sent) and server (i.e. ties received) relational options as complementary aspects of interaction strategies.     

网络环境下客户参与对产品开发绩效的影响研究-以我国软件企业为例

本研究以网络环境为背景,回顾了客户参与和产品开发绩效方面的研究成果.根据对中国软件企业的调查结果,利用结构方程模型(SEM),分析了客户网上参与和产品开发绩效之间的关系.研究发现:虚拟客户参与平台(VCE)的设计特征、客户知识管理能力、客户网上参与强度都对产品开发绩效有直接正向影响;虚拟客户参与平台的设计特征还通过客户网上参与强度、客户知识管理能力对产品开发绩效有间接正向影响,而客户特性和产品开发绩效之间关系不显著.研究结论为提高企业产品开发绩效提供了实践指导意义.     

The Role of Industry Studies and Public Policies in Production and Operations Management

The research domain Industry Studies and Public Policy (IS&PP) seeks to further our understanding of industrial practices and managerial challenges by explicitly considering contextual details in the design and interpretation of research studies. These details can be vital considerations when shaping public policies. This article reviews a sample of IS&PP publications and analyzes the content of 180 selected papers—85 papers published in the Production and Operations Management (POM) journal and 95 papers published in related journals between 1992 and 2014. Our analysis of the sample dataset and examination of exemplar papers provide four findings. First, studies in different industries emphasize different themes of operational decisions. This difference in emphasis reveals potential research opportunities, especially for conducting inter‐industry studies. Second, our analysis reveals a shift in focus over time. Earlier studies contain a mix of benchmarks and inter‐industry comparisons, while later studies tend to be context‐specific, intra‐industry studies. Third, we report on empirics → analytics → empirics cycles that reveal gaps for building novel theories. Finally, we observe that the relationship between POM decisions and public policy is bi‐directional. This highlights the need to jointly examine operational decisions with policy considerations, especially in information goods, healthcare, sustainable operations and high‐tech manufacturing industries.