Profitability of Service‐Level‐Based Price Differentiation with Inventory Rationing

In this paper, we study the profitability of service‐level‐based price differentiation (SLBPD) in an inventory‐rationing context. SLBPD implies that a company offers several combinations of prices and guaranteed service levels, from which customers self‐select; different customers choose different offerings because they incur different shortage costs if an order is not fulfilled immediately. We develop an analytical model for SLBPD and explore if and when such a service differentiation strategy yields higher profits than a single undifferentiated offering. The results of our analyses suggest that SLBPD is profitable only if a company faces pricing restrictions, e.g., because of competitive pressure or regulatory restrictions. We develop necessary and sufficient conditions under which a specific and relevant form of SLBPD (called “service‐level‐based upselling”) is profitable, and provide an algorithm to compute the optimal parameters of such a policy. Based on this algorithm we carry out numerical analyses that allow us to characterize the profit increment of service‐level‐based upselling. We derive managerial insights into the attractiveness of SLBPD and explain how our basic analytical framework can be extended to account for more complex practical features.     

Lot‐sizing Decisions Under Limited‐time Price Reduction*

We consider the optimal lot‐sizing policy for an inventoried item when the vendor offers a limited‐time price reduction. We use the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach in our analysis, thereby eliminating the sources of approximation found in most of the earlier studies that use an average annual cost approach. We first characterize the optimal lot‐sizing policies and their properties, then develop an algorithm for determining the optimal lot sizes. We analytically demonstrate that the lot sizes derived using an average annual cost approach for the different variants of the problem are, in general, larger than the DCF optimum. While DCF analysis is more rigorous and yields precise lot sizes, we recognize that the associated mathematical models and the solution procedure are rather complex. Since simple and easy‐to‐understand policies have a strong practical appeal to decision makers, we propose a DCF version of a simple and easy‐to‐implement heuristic called the “Early Purchase” (EP) strategy and discuss its performance. We supplement our analytical developments with a detailed computational analysis and discuss the implications of our findings for decision making.     

基于ASRank和MMAS的蚁群算法求解飞机指派问题

本文将航班串的飞机指派问题归结为车辆路径问题,考虑连续航班串之间衔接时间、衔接机场的约束、每架飞机的总飞行时间约束,建立了带有飞行时间约束的车辆路径问题的混合整数规划模型。构造了蚁群系统算法,引入基于排序的蚂蚁系统和最大最小蚂蚁系统算法的信息素更新策略。选取某航空公司7组初始航班串集合进行测试,并对算法中的重要参数进行了分析。实验结果表明,本文设计的模型和算法可以有效地减少连续航班串之间的总衔接时间,在可接受的计算时间内获得满意解。     

Class‐Based Storage with a Finite Number of Items: Using More Classes is not Always Better

Class‐based storage is widely studied in the literature and applied in practice. It divides all stored items into a number of classes according to their turnover. A class of items with higher turnover is allocated to a region closer to the warehouse depot. In the literature, it has been shown that the use of more storage classes leads to a shorter travel time for storing and retrieving items. A basic assumption in this literature is that the required storage space for all items equals their average inventory level, which is valid only if an infinite number of items can be stored in each storage region. This study revisits class‐based storage by considering each storage space to contain only a finite number of items. We develop a travel time model and an algorithm that can be used for determining the optimal number and boundaries of storage classes in warehouses. Different from the conventional research, our findings illustrate that commonly a small number of classes is optimal. In addition, we find the travel time is fairly insensitive to the number of storage classes in a wide range around the optimum. This suggests that a manager can select a near‐optimal number of storage classes in an easy way and need not be worried about the impact of storage‐class reconfigurations. We validate our findings for various cases, including different ABC‐demand curves, space‐sharing factors, number of items, storage rack shapes, discrete storage locations, and stochastic item demand.     

PRODUCT OFFERING,PRICING, AND MAKE‐TO‐STOCK/MAKE‐TO‐ORDER DECISIONS WITH SHARED CAPACITY

In an era of mass customization, many firms continue to expand their product lines to remain competitive. These broader product lines may help to increase market share and may allow higher prices to be charged, but they also cause challenges associated with diseconomies of scope. To investigate this tradeoff, we considered a monopolist who faces demand curves, which for each of its potential products, decline with both price and response time (time to deliver the product). The firm must decide which products to offer, how to price them, whether each should be make‐to‐stock (mts) or make‐to‐order (mto), and how often to produce them. The offered products share a single manufacturing facility. Setup times introduce disceonomies of scope and setup costs introduce economies of scale. We provide motivating problem scenarios, model the monopolist's problem as a non‐linear, integer programming problem, characterize of the optimal policy, develop near‐optimal procedures, and discuss managerial insights.     

Allocation and Pricing of Substitutable Goods: Theory and Algorithm

Motivated by the thriving market of online display advertising, we study a problem of allocating numerous types of goods among many agents who have concave valuations (capturing risk aversion) and heterogeneous substitution preferences across types of goods. The goal is both to provide a theory for optimal allocation of such goods, and to offer a scalable algorithm to compute the optimal allocation and the associated price vectors. Drawing on the economic concept of Pareto optimality, we develop an equilibrium pricing theory for heterogeneous substitutable goods that parallels the pricing theory for financial assets. We then develop a fast algorithm called SIMS (standardization‐and‐indicator‐matrix‐search). Extensive numerical simulations suggest that the SIMS algorithm is very scalable and is up to three magnitudes faster than well‐known alternative algorithms. Our theory and algorithm have important implications for the pricing and scheduling of online display advertisement and beyond.     

Sequencing and Scheduling Appointments with Potential Call‐In Patients

This paper studies appointment scheduling for a combination of routine patients who book well in advance and last‐minute patients who call for an appointment later that same day. We determine when these same‐day patients should be scheduled throughout the day, and how the prospect of their arrivals affects the appointment times of the routine patients. By formulating the problem as a stochastic linear program, we are able to incorporate random and heterogeneous service times and no‐show rates, ancillary physician tasks, and appointment delay costs for same‐day patients who prefer to see the doctor as early as possible. We find that the optimal patient sequence is quite sensitive to the no‐show probabilities and the expected number of same‐day patients. We also develop two simple heuristic solutions to this combinatorial sequencing problem.     

Maximizing Revenue Through Two‐Dimensional Shelf‐Space Allocation

We consider the problem of optimally allocating contiguous rectangular presentation spaces in order to maximize revenues. Such problems are encountered in the arrangement of products in retail shelf‐space and in the design of feature advertising displays or webpages. Specifically, we allow (i) the shape of a product's presentation to have a vertical as well as a horizontal component and (ii) displays to extend across multiple shelves for in‐store presentations. Since the vertical location of the shelf on which a product is displayed affects its sales, each vertical location is assigned its own effectiveness with regard to revenue generation. The problem of maximizing the total weighted revenue of a display is strongly NP‐hard. Therefore, we decompose it into two subproblems. The first consists of allocating products to different cabinets. In the second, within each cabinet, each product's units are arranged in a contiguous rectangle and assigned a location. These subproblems are solved using an innovative approach that uses a combination of integer programming and an algorithm for the maximum‐weight independent set problem. Based on computational studies on both real‐world and simulated data, we demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, the revenue generated by this scheme is within 1% of the optimum for actual data and within 5% for simulated data.     

De‐Biasing the Reporting Bias in Social Media Analytics

User‐generated contents (UGC) in social media such as online reviews are inherently incomplete since we do not capture the opinions of users who do not write a review. These silent users may be systematically different than those who speak up. Such differences can be driven by users’ differing sentiments toward their shopping experiences as well as their disposition to generate UGC. Overlooking silent users’ opinions can result in a reporting bias. We develop a method to model users’ UGC generating process and then rectify this bias through an inverse probability weighting (IPW) approach. In the context of users’ movie review activities at Blockbuster.com, our results show that the average probability for a customer to post a review is 0.06 when the customer is unsatisfied with a movie, 0.23 when indifferent, and 0.32 when satisfied. The distribution of user's reporting probability with positive experience first‐order stochastically dominates the one with negative experience. Our approach provides a realistic solution for business managers to properly utilize incomplete UGC.     

COMBINED PRODUCTION AND MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING FOR A MULTIPLE‐PRODUCT,SINGLE‐ MACHINE PRODUCTION SYSTEM

Traditionally, the problems of equipment maintenance scheduling and production scheduling in a multi‐product environment have been treated independently. In this paper, we develop a Markov decision process model that simultaneously determines maintenance and production schedules for a multiple‐product, single‐machine production system, accounting for the fact that equipment condition can affect the yield of different product types differently. The problem was motivated by an application in semiconductor manufacturing. After examining structural properties of the optimal policy, we compare the combined method to an approach often used in practice. In the nearly 6,000 test problems studied, the reward from the combined method was an average of more than 25 percent greater than the reward from the traditional method.     

Estimating the Effects of a Time‐Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare‐Leavers

In the Self Sufficiency Project (SSP) welfare demonstration, members of a randomly assigned treatment group could receive a subsidy for full‐time work. The subsidy was available for 3 years, but only to people who began working full time within 12 months of random assignment. A simple optimizing model suggests that the eligibility rules created an “establishment” incentive to find a job and leave welfare within a year of random assignment, and an “entitlement” incentive to choose work over welfare once eligibility was established. Building on this insight, we develop an econometric model of welfare participation that allows us to separate the two effects and estimate the impact of the earnings subsidy on welfare entry and exit rates among those who achieved eligibility. The combination of the two incentives explains the time profile of the experimental impacts, which peaked 15 months after random assignment and faded relatively quickly. Our findings suggest that about half of the peak impact of SSP was attributable to the establishment incentive. Despite the extra work effort generated by SSP, the program had no lasting impact on wages and little or no long‐run effect on welfare participation.     

Why Near‐Miss Events Can Decrease an Individual's Protective Response to Hurricanes

Prior research shows that when people perceive the risk of some hazardous event to be low, they are unlikely to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard. We believe one factor that can lower inappropriately (from a normative perspective) people's perception of the risk of a hazard is information about prior near‐miss events. A near‐miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane), which had some nontrivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), does not because good fortune intervenes. People appear to mistake such good fortune as an indicator of resiliency. In our first study, people with near‐miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance, and this was shown for both participants from the general population and individuals with specific interests in risk and natural disasters. In our second study, we consider a different mitigation decision, that is, to evacuate from a hurricane, and vary the level of statistical probability of hurricane damage. We still found a strong effect for near‐miss information. Our research thus shows how people who have experienced a similar situation but escape damage because of chance will make decisions consistent with a perception that the situation is less risky than those without the past experience. We end by discussing the implications for risk communication.     

Coordinating Service‐Sensitive Demand and Capacity by Adaptive Decision Making: An Application of Case‐Based Decision Theory*

The subject of this article is the simultaneous choice of product price and manufacturing capacity if demand is stochastic and service‐level sensitive. In this setting, capacity as well as price have an impact on demand because several aspects of service level depend on capacity. For example, delivery time will be reduced if capacity is increased given a constant demand rate. We illustrate the relationship between service level, capacity, and demand reaction by a stylized application problem from the after‐sales services industry. The reaction of customers to variations in service level and price is represented by a kinked price‐demand‐rate function. We first derive the optimal price‐capacity combination for the resulting decision problem under full information. Subsequently, we focus on a decision maker (DM) who lacks complete knowledge of the demand function. Hence the DM is unable to anticipate the service level and consequently cannot identify the optimal solution. However, the DM will acquire additional information during the sales process and use it in subsequent revisions of the price‐capacity decision. Thus, this decision making is adaptive and based on experience. In contrast to the literature, which assumes certain repetitive procedures somewhat ad hoc, we develop an adaptive decision process based on case‐based decision theory (CBDT) for the price‐capacity problem. Finally, we show that a CBDT DM in our setting eventually finds the optimal solution, if the DM sets the price based on absorption costs and adequately adjusts the capacity with respect to the observed demand.     

Integrated Procurement Planning in Multi‐division Firms

For large multi‐division firms, coordinating procurement policies across multiple divisions to leverage volume discounts from suppliers based on firm‐wide purchasing power can yield millions of dollars of savings in procurement costs. Coordinated procurement entails deciding which suppliers to use to meet each division's purchasing needs and sourcing preferences so as to minimize overall purchasing, logistics, and operational costs. Motivated by this tactical procurement planning problem facing a large industrial products manufacturer, we propose an integrated optimization model that simultaneously considers both firm‐wide volume discounts and divisional ordering and inventory costs. To effectively solve this large‐scale integer program, we develop and apply a tailored solution approach that exploits the problem structure to generate tight bounds. We identify several classes of valid inequalities to strengthen the linear programming relaxation, establish polyhedral properties of these inequalities, and develop both a cutting‐plane method and a sequential rounding heuristic procedure. Extensive computational tests for realistic problems demonstrate that our integrated sourcing model and solution method are effective and can provide significant economic benefits. The integrated approach yields average savings of 7.5% in total procurement costs compared to autonomous divisional policies, and our algorithm generates near‐optimal solutions (within 0.75% of optimality) within reasonable computational time.     

Panel Size and Overbooking Decisions for Appointment‐Based Services under Patient No‐Shows

Many service systems that work with appointments, particularly those in healthcare, suffer from high no‐show rates. While there are many reasons why patients become no‐shows, empirical studies found that the probability of a patient being a no‐show typically increases with the patient's appointment delay, i.e., the time between the call for the appointment and the appointment date. This paper investigates how demand and capacity control decisions should be made while taking this relationship into account. We use stylized single server queueing models to model the appointments scheduled for a provider, and consider two different problems. In the first problem, the service capacity is fixed and the decision variable is the panel size; in the second problem, both the panel size and the service capacity (i.e., overbooking level) are decision variables. The objective in both cases is to maximize some net reward function, which reduces to system throughput for the first problem. We give partial or complete characterizations for the optimal decisions, and use these characterizations to provide insights into how optimal decisions depend on patient's no‐show behavior in regards to their appointment delay. These insights especially provide guidance to service providers who are already engaged in or considering interventions such as sending reminders in order to decrease no‐show probabilities. We find that in addition to the magnitudes of patient show‐up probabilities, patients' sensitivity to incremental delays is an important determinant of how demand and capacity decisions should be adjusted in response to anticipated changes in patients' no‐show behavior.     

Competitive Pricing in a Multi‐Product Multi‐Attribute Environment

We address the problem of simultaneous pricing of a line of several products, both complementary products and substitutes, with a number of distinct price differentiation classes for each product (e.g., volume discounts, different distribution channels, and customer segments) in both monopolistic and oligopolistic settings. We provide a generic framework to tackle this problem, consider several families of demand models, and focus on a real‐world case‐study example. We propose an iterative relaxation algorithm, and state sufficient conditions for convergence of the algorithm. Using historical sales and price data from a retailer, we apply our solution algorithm to suggest optimal pricing, and report on numerical results.     

Predicting Cancer‐Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions

Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert‐assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects′ tendencies to engage in cancer‐risk‐reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects’ control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies.     

Multistage Stochastic Optimization for Production‐Inventory Planning with Intermittent Renewable Energy

A growing number of companies install wind and solar generators in their energy‐intensive facilities to attain low‐carbon manufacturing operations. However, there is a lack of methodological studies on operating large manufacturing facilities with intermittent power. This study presents a multi‐period, production‐inventory planning model in a multi‐plant manufacturing system powered with onsite and grid renewable energy. Our goal is to determine the production quantity, the stock level, and the renewable energy supply in each period such that the aggregate production cost (including energy) is minimized. We tackle this complex decision problem in three steps. First, we present a deterministic planning model to attain the desired green energy penetration level. Next, the deterministic model is extended to a multistage stochastic optimization model taking into account the uncertainties of renewables. Finally, we develop an efficient modified Benders decomposition algorithm to search for the optimal production schedule using a scenario tree. Numerical experiments are carried out to verify and validate the model integrity, and the potential of realizing high‐level renewables penetration in large manufacturing system is discussed and justified.     

Integrating Social Network Effects in the Share‐Of‐Choice Problem

Accounting for social network effects in marketing strategies has become an important issue. Taking a step back, we seek to incorporate and analyze social network effects on new product development and then propose a model to engineer product diffusion over a social network. We build upon the share‐of‐choice (SOC) problem, which is a strategic combinatorial optimization problem used commonly as one of the methods to analyze conjoint analysis data by marketers in order to identify a product with largest market share, and show how to incorporate social network effects in the SOC problem. We construct a genetic algorithm to solve this computationally challenging (NP‐Hard) problem and show that ignoring social network effects in the design phase results in a significantly lower market share for a product. In this setting, we introduce the secondary operational problem of determining the least expensive way of influencing individuals and strengthening product diffusion over a social network. This secondary problem is of independent interest, as it addresses contagion models and the issue of intervening in diffusion over a social network, which are of significant interest in marketing and epidemiological settings.     

Drivers and Outcomes of Long‐term Orientation in Cooperative Relationships

We argue in this paper that a buyer may deliberately develop long‐term orientation as a governance mechanism to deal with risks arising from exchange hazards, and to reduce the opportunistic behaviour of a supplier. While the exchange hazards of asset specificity pose a safeguarding problem, those of market uncertainty pose an adaptation problem. We test our model on a sample of 221 procurement partnerships. Our results show that satisfactory prior history of a supplier, asset specificity of the buyer and market uncertainty are all positively related to a buyer's long‐term orientation towards a supplier. Consistent with the idea that asset specificity and market uncertainty pose different governance problems, we find that satisfactory prior history reduces the positive relationship between asset specificity and a buyer's long‐term orientation, but enhances the positive relationship between market uncertainty and a buyer's long‐term orientation. We also find that a buyer's long‐term orientation fully mediates the relationship between satisfactory prior history and a supplier's opportunistic behaviour. Finally, implications on the theory and the practices of relationship governance are discussed.