Effects of Context and Feelings on Perceptions of Genetically Modified Food

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the role of feelings in framing perceptions and decisions about risk, yet no study has specifically examined the impact of feelings on perceptions/judgments about biotechnology. This exploratory study investigated current perceptions of genetically modified (GM) food to examine (1) the effects of context (making judgments about GM food at the same time as rating other current areas of concern), and (2) the effect of feelings of dread (integral affect) and background feelings of stress (negative incidental affect) on risk judgments about GM food. An established psychometric method (semantic differential task) used with a sample of 126 adults (recruited "topic-blind," mostly from a student population) showed that, when rated in the context of other current concerns such as human cloning and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), there was less concern about GM food than might have been anticipated. Participants were recruited "topic-blind" in order to ensure that they were unaware that the focus of the research was on GM food specifically (and thus preventing biased recruitment to the study). Relative to 19 other current concerns GM food was "not dreaded," not viewed as "unethical," was judged as "controllable," and was seen as the least "risky" of all the issues studied. GM food was viewed as a "hot topic," a new risk, and as relatively unnatural (although it was not the highest rated concern on this scale). Ratings of risks across concerns by individuals experiencing high levels of negative incidental affect (stress) did not differ significantly from those reporting low stress.     

Who Does the Public Trust? The Case of Genetically Modified Food in the United States

Trust is important for the perception of many types of risk, including those relating to genetically modified (GM) food. Who the public trusts in any given circumstance, however, is not well understood. In this study of public trust regarding GM food, an exploratory factor analysis with Promax rotation reveals public classification of three common institutional types-evaluators, watchdogs, and merchants. The structure of relationships among these stakeholders can act to enable or constrain public support for this new technology. Evaluators-scientists, universities, and medical professionals-are the most trusted. Watchdogs-consumer advocacy organizations, environmental organizations, and media sources-are moderately trusted. Merchants-grocers and grocery stores, industry, and farmers-are least trusted. While the federal government is seen as closest to being an evaluator, it is not highly correlated with any of the factors. The lack of trust in the organizations with the greatest resources and responsibilities for ensuring the safety of GM food should be seen as an important obstacle to the adoption of the technology.     

European Public Perceptions of Food Risk: Cross-National and Methodological Comparisons

This article presents a comparative study of public perceptions of food risk across 25 European member states. A secondary data analysis is conducted on a Eurobarometer survey fielded to nationally representative samples in 2005. The survey included closed questions as well as free associations to map risk perceptions. Taking a quantitative approach, we find that people in a majority of European countries express similar levels of concern about food risks. However, outside this majority a North-South divide is evident, with the Northern countries worrying less than the Southern countries. Multilevel modeling shows that cross-national differences in individual respondents' level of worry are in part attributable to shared country effects and to generalized risk sensitivity about a range of personal risks. On the underlying structure of food risk concerns, factor analysis points to three dimensions described by groupings of risks related to adulteration and contamination, health effects, and production and hygiene. A qualitative analysis of respondents' free associations about problems and risks with food identifies three major themes that are consistent with the quantitative results. However, the free associations also point toward greater cross-national diversity and to striking variations in the range and importance of food risks. Overall, the picture is of a public that frames food risks in a wider context of beliefs about the links between diet and health. We conclude with some implications for research on food risk perceptions in particular and risk perception studies in general.     

Public Perceptions of the Potential Hazards Associated with Food Production and Food Consumption: An Empirical Study

Although public perceptions of food-related hazards receive much media comment and debate, the research literature on such perceptions is sparse and piecemeal. In the reported study, 216 people completed a questionnaire relating to their perceptions of the "risk characteristics" of potential hazards associated with various aspects of food production and food consumption. Responses were examined via principal-components analysis to obtain a structural representation of risk perception of the kind provided by Fischhoff, Slovic, and their colleagues in their seminal psychometric work.^(1,2) A three-component solution accounting for 87% of the variance was obtained, with the dimensions labeled as "severity,""unknown," and "number of people exposed." The findings also yielded information pointing to evidence of the phenomenon of unrealistic optimism. We conclude that our findings offer a useful base upon which further in-depth research integrating different perspectives on risk perception with respect to food-related hazards may be developed.     

Consumer Risk Perceptions Toward Agricultural Biotechnology, Self-Protection, and Food Demand: The Case of Milk in the United States

This study is an econometric systems approach to modeling the factors and linkages affecting risk perceptions toward agricultural biotechnology, self-protection actions, and food demand. This model is applied to milk in the United States, but it can be adapted to other products as well as other categories of risk perceptions. The contribution of this formulation is the ability to examine how explanatory factors influence risk perceptions and whether they translate into behavior and ultimately what impact this has on aggregate markets. Hadden's outrage factors on heightening risk perceptions are among the factors examined. In particular, the article examines the role of labeling as a means of permitting informed consent to mitigate outrage factors. The effects of attitudinal, economic, and demographic factors on risk perceptions are also explored, as well as the linkage between risk perceptions, consumer behavior, and food demand. Because risk perceptions and self-protection actions are categorical variables and demand is a continuous variable, the model is estimated as a two-stage mixed system with a covariance correction procedure suggested by Amemiya. The findings indicate that it is the availability of labeling, not the price difference, between that labeled milk and milk produced with recombinant bovine Somatotropin (rbST) that significantly affects consumer's selection of rbST-free milk. The results indicate that greater availability of labeled milk would not only significantly increase the proportion of consumers who purchased labeled milk, its availability would also reduce the perception of risk associated with rbST, whether consumers purchase it or not. In other words, availability of rbST-free milk translates into lower risk perceptions toward milk produced with rbST.     

Explaining Public Resistance to Genetically Modified Corn: An Analysis of the Distribution of Benefits and Risks

Genetically modified (GM) crops have met with widespread approval among scientists and policy makers in the United States, but public approval of GM crops, both domestically and abroad, is progressing much more slowly. An underlying cause of public wariness may be that both nations and individual consumers do not perceive significant benefits to themselves from GM crops, while fearing the risks they may incur. In this study, an economic analysis is conducted to determine whether the benefits of one type of GM corn, Bt corn (genetically modified to resist damage from the ECB and Southwestern corn borer), outweigh the potential risks; and who the "winners" and "losers" are among stakeholder groups that may be affected by Bt corn. It is found that Bt corn growers, consumers, and industry all benefit from Bt corn adoption, though the purported health and environmental benefits of reducing chemical pesticide usage through Bt corn are negligible. Though the aggregated public benefit is large, the welfare gain to individual consumers is small and may not make up for perceived risks. While environmental and health risks of Bt corn are unlikely, the potential market risks-impacting both the organic corn market and total U.S. corn exports-are found to be significant. Currently, distributional analysis is not a part of regulatory decision making of Bt corn in the United States; yet it may help to explain why decision makers at both the government and individual-consumer levels have failed to embrace Bt corn and other GM crops.     

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Safety Goal Policy: A Critical Review

The most recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) statement of safety goal policy is a significant advance over previous versions. However, some areas of the policy are still in need of refinement, and the resolution of several key questions was deferred pending further review. To clarify some of these issues, this paper presents a critical review of the NRC safety goal policy to date.     

Information Processing of Genetically Modified Food Messages Under Different Motives: An Adaptation of the Multiple-Motive Heuristic-Systematic Model

Recent risk management research has noted the importance of understanding how the lay public processes and reacts to risk-related information. Guided by the multiple-motive heuristic-systematic model, this study examines (1) how individuals process messages in the context of genetically modified foods to change their attitudes and (2) how the persuasion process varies across types of motives. In the three treatment conditions of accuracy, defense, and impression motives, the respondents changed their attitudes through either the heuristic or the systematic mode, depending on their motives. The accuracy-motive group appeared to use the systematic processing mode, while the impression-motive group seemed to employ the heuristic processing mode. The empirical findings highlight the importance of incorporating motives to improve our understanding of the process of attitude change in risk management and communication contexts.     

Policy tenure under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

In the United States, insurance against flood hazard (inland flooding or storm surge from hurricanes) has been provided mainly through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) since 1968. The NFIP covers $1.23 trillion of assets today. This article provides the first analysis of flood insurance tenure ever undertaken: that is, the number of years that people keep their flood insurance policy before letting it lapse. Our analysis of the entire portfolio of the NFIP over the period 2001-2009 reveals that the median tenure of new policies during that time is between two and four years; it is also relatively stable over time and levels of flood hazard. Prior flood experience can affect tenure: people who have experienced small flood claims tend to hold onto their insurance longer; people who have experienced large flood claims tend to let their insurance lapse sooner. To overcome the policy and governance challenges posed by homeowners' inadequate insurance coverage, we discuss policy recommendations that include for banks and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) strengthening their requirements and the introduction of multiyear flood insurance contracts attached to the property, both of which are likely to provide more coverage stability and encourage investments in risk-reduction measures.     

Warning Systems and Defense Policy: A Reliability Model for the Command and Control of U.S. Nuclear Forces

The U.S. Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence System (C³I) includes sensors (e.g., satellites and radars), communication links, and computer systems that allow gathering and processing of information that a missile attack on the continental United States may be on the way. The choice of a policy of response to such an attack depends in part on the reliability of the information coming from the C³I. We consider in this study four possible response policies: (1) launch on impact, (2) launch on attack assessment, (3) launch under attack, and (4) launch on warning. We propose a method to compute, for each policy, the probability of accidental nuclear strike and the probability of being unable to respond due to a malfunction of the C³I or to partial destruction of the response forces. We include in our system the launch authorization steps (permissive action links) and a very crude analysis of the survivability of second strike forces. We examine the variations of probabilities of Type I and Type II errors and the tradeoffs involved when shifting from a policy of launch on impact to another launch policy. We conclude that this simple but powerful method allows one to gain a good grasp on some of the complex issues involved.     

Cultural Values,Trust, and Benefit‐Risk Perceptions of Hydraulic Fracturing: A Comparative Analysis of Policy Elites and the General Public

Hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) has recently become a very intensely debated process for extracting oil and gas. Supporters argue that fracking provides positive economic benefits and energy security and offers a decreased reliance on coal‐based electricity generation. Detractors claim that the fracking process may harm the environment as well as place a strain on local communities that experience new fracking operations. This study utilizes a recently conducted survey distributed to a sample of policy elites and the general public in Arkansas and Oregon to examine the role of cultural value predispositions and trust in shaping the perceptions of risks and benefits associated with fracking. Findings indicate that cultural values influence both trust and benefit‐risk perceptions of fracking for both policy elites and the general public. More specifically, we found that trust in information from various sources is derived from the intrinsic values held by an individual, which in turn impacts perceptions of related benefits and risks. We also found that while the overall pattern of relationships is similar, trust plays a larger role in the formulation of attitudes for policy elites than for the general public. We discuss the implications of the mediating role of trust in understanding value‐driven benefit‐risk perceptions, as well as the disparate role of trust between policy elites and the general public in the context of the policy‐making process for both theory and practice.     

The U.S. Forest Service and Its Responsibilities under the National Environmental Policy Act: A Work Design Problem

The U.S. Forest Service’s responsibilities under the National Environmental Policy Act entail a wide range of activities including scoping, scientific analysis, social and economic analysis, managing public input and involvement, media relations, regulatory analysis, and litigation. These myriad duties raise several important organizational and management questions. First, is the U.S. Forest Service capable of discharging these widely varying tasks with high levels of effectiveness and efficiency? To what extent should these activities be outsourced to private contractors or other providers? For those responsibilities retained in-house, what organizational structure best supports their effective and efficient execution? To address these questions, this article draws on concepts from new institutional economics and insights from the privatization and strategic organizational design literatures.     

Competition within the U.S. National Security Regime: A study of the U.S. Aerospace Defense Sector

This article examines the aerospace defense sector and the national export control regime within which U.S. corporations operate. While the U.S. federal government plays many roles in this industry, the focus here is on its role as regulator of defense exports from the United States. From this vantage point, ten case studies illustrate the difficulties faced by companies in this challenging environment, and highlight factors that lead to noncompliance with U.S. government regulations. Firm performance effects are investigated, including impacts on profits, share price, and reputation. The paper concludes with implications for international management practice and international business research that reflect realities in the aerospace defense sector.     

Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach

In this paper we derive a model of aggregate investment that builds from the lumpy microeconomic behavior of firms facing stochastic fixed adjustment costs. Instead of the standard sharp (S,s) bands, firms' adjustment policies take the form of a probability of adjustment (adjustment hazard) that responds smoothly to changes in firms' capacity gap. The model has appealing aggregation properties, and yields nonlinear aggregate time series processes. The passivity of normal times is, occasionally, more than offset by the brisk response to large accumulated shocks. Using within and out-of-sample criteria, we find that the model performs substantially better than the standard linear models of investment for postwar sectoral U.S. manufacturing equipment and structures investment data.     

NIMBY, CLAMP, and the Location of New Nuclear-Related Facilities: U.S. National and 11 Site-Specific Surveys

Public and political opposition have made finding locations for new nuclear power plants, waste management, and nuclear research and development facilities a challenge for the U.S. government and the nuclear industry. U.S. government-owned properties that already have nuclear-related activities and commercial nuclear power generating stations are logical locations. Several studies and utility applications to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission suggest that concentrating locations at major plants (CLAMP) has become an implicit siting policy. We surveyed 2,101 people who lived within 50 miles of 11 existing major nuclear sites and 600 who lived elsewhere in the United States. Thirty-four percent favored CLAMP for new nuclear power plants, 52% for waste management facilities, and 50% for new nuclear laboratories. College educated, relatively affluent male whites were the strongest CLAMP supporters. They disproportionately trusted those responsible for the facilities and were not worried about existing nuclear facilities or other local environmental issues. Notably, they were concerned about continuing coal use. Not surprisingly, CLAMP proponents tended to be familiar with their existing local nuclear site. In short, likely CLAMP sites have a large and politically powerful core group to support a CLAMP policy. The challenge to proponents of nuclear technologies will be to sustain this support and expand the base among those who clearly are less connected and receptive to new nearby sites.     

U.S. firms' responses to regulation: Stonewalling and opportunism

While regulation may not always be to business's benefit, it is likely to mean than costly requirements, increases in paperwork, decreases in innovation and the loss of business power. In responding to regulation, managers have choices. They can allow ‘drift’ to occur and not choose a policy. They can ‘progressive’ and ‘lead the industry’, or ‘flight all the way’ and ‘do only what is required’. They can choose some combination of ‘reaction and defence’ and|or ‘accomodation and proaction’, or they can move from policy to policy depending on the issue, the competitive implications, the power of key participants and the other factors. Each of these responses has a unique array of advantages and disadvantages. To decide on a strategy, strategic analysis is needed. Such analysis requires: (1) attention to internal operating impacts; (2) concern for relative competitive impacts on an industry-wide basis; (3) concern for relative competitive impacts within an industry; and (4) assessment of regulatory alternatives in light of corporate goals. Attention to these concerns is necessary to refine, tailor and adjust a company's particular response to regulatory challenges.     

Consumer Confidence in the Safety of Food and Newspaper Coverage of Food Safety Issues: A Longitudinal Perspective

This study develops a longitudinal perspective on consumer confidence in the safety of food to explore if, how, and why consumer confidence changes over time. In the first study, a theory-based monitoring instrument for consumer confidence in the safety of food was developed and validated. The monitoring instrument assesses consumer confidence together with its determinants. Model and measurement invariance were validated rigorously before developments in consumer confidence in the safety of food and its determinants were investigated over time. The results from the longitudinal analysis show that across four waves of annual data collection (2003–2006), the framework was stable and that the relative importance of the determinants of confidence was, generally, constant over time. Some changes were observed regarding the mean ratings on the latent constructs. The second study explored how newspaper coverage of food safety related issues affects consumer confidence in the safety of food through subjective consumer recall of food safety incidents. The results show that the newspaper coverage on food safety issues is positively associated with consumer recall of food safety incidents, both in terms of intensity and recency of media coverage.