THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE PROTESTANT REFORMATION: TESTING THE WEBER HYPOTHESIS IN THE GERMAN LANDS

Following Max Weber, many theories have hypothesized that Protestantism should have favored economic development. With its religious heterogeneity, the Holy Roman Empire presents an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis. Using population figures of 272 cities in the years 1300–1900, I find no effects of Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is precisely estimated, robust to the inclusion of various controls, and does not depend on data selection or small sample size. Denominational differences in fertility behavior and literacy are unlikely to be major confounding factors. Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development. Instrumental variables estimates, considering the potential endogeneity of religious choice, are similar to the OLS results.     

Cross-cultural re-entry for missionaries: a new application for the Dual Process Model

Nearly half a million foreign aid workers currently work worldwide, including over 140,000 missionaries. During re-entry these workers may experience significant psychological distress. This article positions previous research about psychological distress during re-entry, emphasizing loss and grief. At present there is no identifiable theoretical framework to provide a basis for assessment, management, and prevention of re-entry distress in the clinical setting. The development of theoretical concepts and frameworks surrounding loss and grief including the Dual Process Model (DPM) are discussed. All the parameters of the DPM have been shown to be appropriate for the proposed re-entry model, the Dual Process Model applied to Re-entry (DPMR). It is proposed that the DPMR is an appropriate framework to address the processes and strategies of managing re-entry loss and grief. Possible future clinical applications and limitations of the proposed model are discussed. The DPMR is offered for further validation and use in clinical practice.     

An integrative framework for FMS diffusion

Existing FMS diffusion models do not capture many of the factors that impact FMS diffusion. The objective of this paper is to identify factors impacting the diffusion rate of flexible manufacturing systems (FMS), to identify measurements of these factors, to provide an integrated framework to capture and group such factors, and to propose their expected impact on diffusion. We identify additional factors that, we believe, impact FMS diffusion and we extend the existing FMS diffusion models by incorporating these factors and showing their expected impact on FMS diffusion. We identified such factors from various studies: FMS related as well as non-FMS related studies. FMS studies that focused on its diffusion, explicitly identified factors impacting such diffusion; while FMS studies that focused on other FMS aspects identified factors that we believe are relevant to diffusion and hence included them in our framework. Additional diffusion factors are identified from other non-FMS studies relating to organizational culture, organizational strategy, organizational structure, and management style. Finally, we present all the factors (explicitly mentioned by these studies or implicitly derived from them) within an integrated FMS diffusion framework and propose how these factors impact diffusion.     

组织网络隐性知识扩散及学习策略分析

知识主要以显性知识和隐性知识两种方式存在,隐性知识是组织获得竞争优势的主要源泉.隐性知识为组织个体所拥有,这种私有性的特征使其在组织内部的扩散需要通过组织个体之间的交互才能完成.组织网络连接强度对扩散具有影响,可利用具有边权重的组织网络研究隐性知识的扩散行为.在分析隐性知识和相关扩散特点的基础上,基于组织成员之间的关系网络和小世界网络模型,建立组织网络上的知识扩散模型.根据认识论的观点,提出个体3种知识学习策略,结合知识扩散模型进行计算仿真实验.仿真结果显示,综合考虑关系和知识差别的知识学习策略最有效,不考虑连接强度下的各种策略都具有较快的知识学习速率,并且连接强度对组织内隐性知识扩散具有明显的作用.     

考虑重复购买因素的品牌竞争对新产品扩散的影响研究——基于小世界网络的仿真环境

在对品牌竞争影响要素分析的基础上,考虑重复购买在新产品扩散过程中的调节效应,构建以消费者微观采纳机制为核心的新产品扩散的阈值模型,在小世界网络仿真情境下,运用多智能仿真方法对品牌竞争与新产品扩散之间的影响关系进行分析,研究结果表明：转换成本对新产品扩散的速度和深度的影响存在一定的"条件区域",在该区域之外两者不存在显著的影响关系;进入时间与两种竞争性品牌的扩散速度存在一致的负向的影响关系,而对两种竞争性品牌的扩散深度的影响方向则相反;在此过程中,重复购买系数起着一定的调节效应,会在一定程度上放大或缩小转换成本及进入时间对新产品扩散的影响效应。通过本文的研究,不仅可以进一步丰富和完善竞争性产品创新扩散的相关理论,也可以为企业的新产品推广实践提供决策支持。     

需求驱动的移动商务价值链组织的多阶博弈仿真

基于博弈论和扩散理论建立了多智能体模拟系统,实现了客户需求逆向驱动的价值链多阶博弈仿真,并进行模拟数据分析。以移动价值链为研究对象,建立考虑用户重复购买的BASS动力学模型,探讨移动市场中产品扩散过程;并基于实时需求数据驱动合作博弈模型,探讨了运营商和服务商的竞合关系;进一步结合进化博弈理论,描述了服务商动态联盟的演化过程。从价值链集成的角度,利用多阶博弈研究了价值链整体建模问题,并引入行业生命周期理论进行分析。通过一系列的虚拟实验,探讨了市场因素、服务商和运营商因素对收益的影响,为价值链管理决策提供依据。     

Changes in Product Attributes and Costs as Drivers of New Product Diffusion and Substitution

Diffusion theory has typically focused on how communication, internal or external to a social system, leads to adoptions and diffusion of an innovation. We develop a diffusion and substitution model based on a somewhat different perspective. In some cases, progressive improvements in product attributes and/or continual cost reduction seem to be a key driver of the diffusion process. For example, after introduction of the 5.25‐inch disk drive, its capacity continually increased, and accordingly, so did customer willingness‐to‐pay. Our model is based on a linear reservation price framework, in which a product is described by its depth (defined as the difference between a product̂s maximum reservation price and its production cost), and its breadth (related to the slope of its reservation price curve), indicating how broadly it appeals across various customer segments. Because of changes in product depths and breadths over time, customers who previously preferred the old product may later prefer the new product, thus creating the diffusion process. While the Bass model describes diffusion as a function of the coefficients of innovation and imitation, in our model, it is described by the coefficients of depth and breadth (the rates of change in relative depth and breadth), along with an S‐coefficient that we associate with the technology S‐curve. We fit our model to data from the disk‐drive and the microprocessor industries.     

基于项目网络支配和扩散关系的研发项目组合选择

项目组合包含多项目且项目间存在相互作用和依赖关系,针对传统项目组合评价方法忽略了各项目间依赖关系的不足,本文采用复杂网络理论和PageRank算法,提出一种新的项目优先级排序方法（PPRM）。首先,本文建立研发项目多属性评价准则,分析了项目间的支配关系以及技术和经验在项目间的扩散关系。然后,以项目为节点、以支配和扩散关系为边,分别构建了项目支配和扩散网络,进一步,采用设计结构矩阵（DSM）和K-shell方法建立了基于支配网络的项目影响力模型,并建立了考虑项目之间多次扩散传播的综合扩散概率模型。综合项目节点影响力和扩散关系,本文构建了基于PageRank算法的研发项目优先级排序模型。最后,以某研发项目组合选择为例,验证了本文所建立的模型和算法可有效分析项目组合中的排序问题。     

Health care technology. Evolution toward revolution

The assessment process has a significant effect on the development and diffusion of any new technology. An assessment during the infancy of a new technology may have to be updated as more experience and data accumulate and change the analysis of the technology's safety and effectiveness. An outdated assessment can result in inappropriate utilization either by hindering diffusion of a valuable technology or by promoting utilization of an inappropriate technology. Those who conduct technology assessments must recognize that technologies have life cycles of their own.     

An organizational approach for the study of the diffusion of process innovation strategies in internal auditing and control systems

Davenport (1993a) has pointed out that the diffusion of innovation approach as a behavioral process change has been limited to the study of how new information technology can be successfully adopted, rather than “how innovation can improve organizational performance.” This article extends Davenport's challenge to bridge this research gap by applying the diffusion of innovation approach to study accounting and control systems as an administrative process innovation approach to improve business performance. We chose to study internal auditing because it constitutes an important aspect of an administrative process innovation program that is critical for improving business performance programs.     

基于Bass修正模型的产业集群技术创新扩散研究

产业集群技术创新扩散具有不同于一般技术创新扩散的多个特征,无法采用现有分析方法进行研究.本文在对技术创新扩散过程Bass模型研究的基础上,指出运用Bass模型研究产业集群技术创新扩散存在的不足,据此拓展、建立了产业集群技术创新扩散Bass修正模型,并进行了仿真、分析、比较.结果表明,本文提出的Bass修正模型更合理、有效,结论更符合实际情况,可为研究产业集群技术创新扩散问题提供理论与方法支持.     

The diffusion of advanced manufacturing technology in multiplant,multidivisional corporations

This study examines several factors which act as significant predictors of successful intra-firm advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) diffusion. Our findings suggest that the following factors positively impact the diffusion process: previously successful AMT implementations, advanced manufacturing centers, AMT workshops, informal networks, simultaneous R&D of products and processes, and the significance of the impact of AMT on operating performance. One factor—cost and time overruns with previous implementation projects—emerged as a deterrent to successful AMT diffusion. Our results also indicate that the use of an outside consultant as a major source of transfer expertise significantly contributes to AMT diffusion success.     

Is there early take-off phenomenon in diffusion of IP-based telecommunications services?

Traditionally, the diffusion of telecommunications services has been considerably affected by the presence of critical mass and network externalities, and thus has shown the so-called “late take-off” phenomenon. However, as telecommunications networks evolve from circuit switching to packet switching, especially IP networks, and thus enabling diverse new services, it seems these traditional telecommunications diffusion patterns are changing. By comparing the diffusion of IP-based services with those of circuit-based services and durable goods, we have found the late take-off phenomenon is not involved in the diffusion of newly introduced IP-based services. Moreover, we concluded that the diffusion of IP-based services is much faster than that of durable goods, thus showing an “early take-off” phenomenon. Based on this empirical result, we suggest that telcos (telecommunications companies) and (ISPs) Internet service providers should pay as much attention to the growth stage as the introduction stage in their development, in order for their IP-based services to be successful in the market.     

Diffusing (let it happen) or disseminating (make it happen) innovations in health care

Management has different options for spreading new products. Our study empirically assessed the integral effects of both diffusion and dissemination on innovation adoption. Data on diffusion (as measured by social network density) and on dissemination (as measured by formulating objectives and executing focused activities) was gathered using a questionnaire given to 356 medical specialists, nested in 38 teams. We found both separate and integral effects for diffusion and dissemination. This shows the potential for both engaging the social network structures (diffusion) and adding process measures (dissemination) in order to optimize the innovation spreading process.     

基于创新合作网络的产业集群知识扩散研究

创新合作网络是产业集群内部主体为适应创新复杂性的一种自组织涌现,创新合作网络结构决定了网络功能并进而影响发生于网络上的集群知识扩散过程。建立基于创新合作网络的知识扩散模型,在具有不同拓扑结构特征的规则网络、随机网络、小世界网络和无标度网络上,运用仿真方法研究集群知识扩散规律。将知识扩散效率与创新合作关系距离相联系,考虑知识的全局扩散效应。研究结果表明,具有无标度特征的创新合作网络能最大限度地提升集群知识扩散深度、知识扩散速度、整体知识水平增长效率以及具有最高的知识资源配置效率,创新合作网络中存在空间聚集的集群主体间倾向于具有相近的知识水平。最后给出促进最优创新合作网络安排的相关政策建议。     

Integrating Social Network Effects in the Share‐Of‐Choice Problem

Accounting for social network effects in marketing strategies has become an important issue. Taking a step back, we seek to incorporate and analyze social network effects on new product development and then propose a model to engineer product diffusion over a social network. We build upon the share‐of‐choice (SOC) problem, which is a strategic combinatorial optimization problem used commonly as one of the methods to analyze conjoint analysis data by marketers in order to identify a product with largest market share, and show how to incorporate social network effects in the SOC problem. We construct a genetic algorithm to solve this computationally challenging (NP‐Hard) problem and show that ignoring social network effects in the design phase results in a significantly lower market share for a product. In this setting, we introduce the secondary operational problem of determining the least expensive way of influencing individuals and strengthening product diffusion over a social network. This secondary problem is of independent interest, as it addresses contagion models and the issue of intervening in diffusion over a social network, which are of significant interest in marketing and epidemiological settings.     

基于企业集群的技术创新扩散激励机制研究

通过对企业集群内部技术创新扩散的特征和活动进行分析,揭示了企业集群在保持创新扩散持续性过程中所存在的障碍,利用激励理论中的委托--代理理论,搭建起企业集群内部技术创新扩散激励机制框架,借鉴"锦标机制"方法构建了企业集群技术创新扩散激励机制模型并对其加以分析,得出相关激励制度为企业集群整体采取有效措施进行技术创新扩散激励提供了理论依据。     

Chemicals,companies, and countries: The concept of diffusion in management research

In the field of organizational behavior, the term “diffusion” has come to be implicitly paired with the concept of innovation and a peculiar set of conceptual choices. We explore how this came about, and examine the evolution of the concept “diffusion” from its inception in the English language through its use in the natural and social sciences to its current meaning in organizational research. A sensemaking perspective on researchers’ cognition helps us explain the changing meaning of the concept, and alerts researchers to the subtle but far-reaching effects of revisions in a field's conceptual language. Even though the field of organizational studies ostensibly treats diffusion as a neutral phenomenon, it implicitly narrates diffusion as a mechanical and positive process that should be welcomed and encouraged. The implications of this reframing become even more important with the increasing focus on innovation in recent diffusion studies. The diffusion of new products among consumers and the diffusion of market institutions around the world are things of a rather different nature and consequence, but treating them as implicitly equivalent “innovations” that “diffuse” naturalizes and hence legitimates them. We conclude by noting implications of our findings for exploring the evolution of meaning for other concepts, and their utilization in research on organizations.     

社会化媒体环境下的品牌传播及品牌形象差异——基于华为与海尔的比较研究

社会化媒体已成为企业品牌形象塑造的重要方式。本文以华为与海尔为研究对象，采用数据挖掘和社会网络分析方法对选取的26,503,570和3,277,717个微博用户数据进行品牌传播的过程研究，并选取两个典型事件分析信息扩散过程，然后通过高频词云图比较社会化媒体呈现的品牌形象与企业欲塑造的品牌形象之间的差异。结果显示：参与华为相关话题讨论的用户数量明显高于海尔，其传播声量亦较高；典型事件分析中，华为的“易烊千玺为nova全球代言人”得到了更多的用户关注，尤其是拥有大量粉丝账号的转发，迅速扩大了传播网络规模，而海尔的“搞笑抽奖活动”则更多的是用户直接转发、参与相关活动，拥有大量粉丝的账号参与较少；在品牌形象呈现方面，海尔的高频词云图中智慧、智能、生活直观展示出其欲塑造的品牌形象，而华为用户参与讨论的内容更为多样，但用户生成内容未能直观展示其欲塑造的品牌形象。     

股指期权定价的非参数数值方法研究

扩散过程估计的参数化方法存在先入为主的不足,并且扩散项函数形式的设定十分困难,而非参数方法不需要数据产生过程的先验信息,直接从数据出发估计扩散函数,克服了以上不足。本文提出了一种基于连续时间过程的非参数股指期权定价模型。对于刻画基础资产动态行为特性的扩散函数不加任何函数形式限制,利用离散数据匹配密度函数构造它的非参数估计,进而计算股指期权的均衡价格。论文从理论上论证了扩散项估计的一致性和渐进正态性。实证研究表明,该方法对于实际市场价格具有较高的拟合效果,特别是在市场波动剧烈时期,非参数方法更优于经典B-S方法。