劳动力市场分割、保留工资与“知识失业”

本文基于我国劳动力市场分割的现实,在工作搜寻理论指导下,通过构建考虑劳动力市场分割的大学生个体择业行为模型揭示"知识失业"的原意。研究表明:第一,高校扩招只是导致"知识失业"的诱因,劳动力市场的分割导致了大学生整体的保留工资对其劳动力市场供给数量的变化不敏感,使得市场无法出清,才是出现"知识失业"的真正原因;第二,从分割的劳动力市场来看,公共部门和垄断行业的工作因为得到社会主流的认可,其待遇变化对大学生的保留工资会有较大影响,当其与竞争部门的工资差距不断拉大时,"知识失业"情况将会出现恶化;第三,"知识失业"降低了大学生深造的机会成本,劳动市场分割则提高了大学生深造的收益预期,进而造成局部和短期的所谓过度教育。     

市场潜能、有效边界与中国劳动力市场效率

文章基于新经济地理学D-S理论框架与空间计量方法,采用2012-2014年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)微观样本和省域面板数据构建多层次回归模型,从劳动者工资和就业二元视角界定我国劳动力市场的市场潜能空间边界。研究发现在全域空间上,市场潜能显著提升了我国劳动者工资和就业水平,给劳动力市场带来"双重利好";在局域空间上,随着省域间隔距离增加,市场潜能难以持续发挥对劳动力市场的空间效应,在一定半径范围呈现出"边界效应"。分组来看,市场潜能对沿海地区的工资增收效应最大,其次是沿边和内陆地区,对于就业水平的改善在内陆地区最为显著;扩大市场潜能将有助于缩小高、低人力资本聚集区域的工资水平差距,改善低人力资本区域和群体的就业水平,不过市场潜能对高、低人力资本群体产生了工资"临界分割效应";高速铁路相对于普通铁路产生的"地理收缩效应"进一步提升了市场潜能对劳动者就业的边际增长效应,对劳动者工资边际增长效应弱于普通铁路时期,但整体效应仍然显著为正。综合而言,突破市场潜能有效边界进行"空间重塑"以及在有效边界内进行"空间修复",有效调节地区之间由于市场潜能差异而导致的工资水平和就业增长的差距,从而从整体上提升我国劳动力市场效率。     

中国城镇劳动力市场工资扭曲程度测算

本文以随机前沿模型为基础,使用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2005²013年微观个体数据,定量估算我国城镇劳动力市场的工资扭曲程度及其演变趋势。研究结论表明:我国城镇劳动力市场工资决定的市场化效率仅达到65%2013年微观个体数据,定量估算我国城镇劳动力市场的工资扭曲程度及其演变趋势。研究结论表明:我国城镇劳动力市场工资决定的市场化效率仅达到65%⁷5%左右,存在严重的工资向下扭曲现象,工资扭曲程度约达25%75%左右,存在严重的工资向下扭曲现象,工资扭曲程度约达25%³5%;200535%;2005²013年,全国和东、中、西部地区的整体工资扭曲程度均呈现先升后降的趋势,拐点大约发生在2011年;劳动合同和工会对于劳动力的工资扭曲具有显著的抑制效应,已经成为维护劳动者权益的"双重"保障机制。上述结论的政策启示在于:构建有效的就业服务体系以缓解劳动力市场的结构性缺陷和制度性障碍是必要的,同时还应在继续完善劳动合同制度的基础上改革工会制度。     

城镇与外来劳动力工资差异分解——人力资本和歧视贡献及其变化北大核心CSSCI

本文运用CHIPS 2002和2007年的数据,对城镇劳动力和外来劳动力的工资差异进行Blinder-Oaxaca分解后发现,人力资本差异是导致城镇劳动力和外来劳动力工资差异的主要原因,同时其解释力度仍然在不断增加,歧视的贡献从2002年的35.18%下降到2007年的25.08%;进一步基于分位数回归的反事实分析表明,歧视程度的下降主要集中在工资分布位于第2个十分位数以上的区间,工资分布位于第2个十分位数以下区间的外来劳动力受到的歧视并未改善,甚至出现一定程度的恶化。     

教育水平对失业风险影响的实证研究——“民工荒”和“大学生就业难”现象的再解释

利用201 1年中国社会状况综合调查数据,分析了教育水平对劳动者失业风险的影响,实证结果证明教育水平越高劳动者的失业风险越低,说明我国“民工荒”和“大学生就业难”现象是局部的和短期的,受到诸如摩擦性失业、劳动力市场分割、产业结构等其他因素的影响,而教育对劳动者就业的影响是显著而且正向的.因此,我们仍然需要大力发展教育,通过提高劳动者素质带动产业结构调整,同时通过产业结构调整来充分利用智力资源,此外,要促进劳动力市场的融合以及劳动者之间的自由流动和公平竞争.     

城市劳动力市场结构性短缺与“民工荒”

我国广东、福建沿海一些地区出现的所谓“民工荒”现象,只是经济高速发展时期发生的一种劳动力需求超过劳动力供给的暂时性现象,随着时间的推移,劳动力市场供求将会发生变化,这种地区性劳动力市场的结构性不平衡会逐渐回落。     

劳动力流动的“半透膜”——城市户籍门槛对流动人口工资溢价的影响

“人才偏好”的户籍门槛在劳动力流动过程中形成了一张“半透膜”,即高技能劳动力可以在城市间相对自由流动,但低技能劳动力流动受阻,劳动力市场效率受户籍门槛抑制。文章将全国流动人口动态监测数据与城市户籍门槛指标匹配,发现城市户籍门槛越高,当地流动人口平均工资越高。使用1984年降水量作为户籍门槛的工具变量,在消除内生性并进行稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。异质性分析发现,户籍门槛对流动人口工资的影响仅在低人力资本群体中显著。机制分析发现,高户籍门槛增强了低人力资本流动人口离开的意愿,导致劳动力供给减少,产生工资溢价。户籍门槛通过影响劳动力流动将工资溢价保留在城市内部,一方面降低了劳动力市场运行效率,另一方面不利于共享发展成果和实现共同富裕。     

三元劳动力市场分割与“新失业群体”失业——基于辽宁的调查

本文主要从辽宁省基本社会特质入手,从制度的角度展开“新失业群体”存在的根源分析。主要是从东北老工业基地特有的三元劳动力市场分割的视角来分析“新失业群体”何以在辽宁省特别突出。即由于劳动力市场三元分割,使得“新失业群体”在不同劳动力市场之间的职业流动发生障碍,导致了“新失业群体”的失业。     

人力资本投资对农村剩余劳动力转移的意义——基于人口流动和劳动力市场的分析

本文首先辨析了人口流动模型中的刘易斯模式和托达罗模式的关键分歧 ,即农业劳动者在城市的工资是如何决定的 ;在此基础上 ,我们解释了为什么大规模的人口流动没有显著提高农民的收入 ,以及巨大的城乡差距为什么没有导致农业劳动者在城市中的大量失业。城市中存在着结构失衡的二元劳动力市场 ,农业劳动者主要就业于低层次市场 ,要加快劳动力的有效转移 ,就要大力增加人力资本投资缓解这种失衡。     

东部地区农民工工资增长影响因素及地区差异实证研究

文章利用2010年和2013年全国流动人口动态监测数据,在构建工资决定方程的基础上,运用Blinder-Oaxaca分解方法对农民工工资增长因素进行分解,探讨劳动力市场供求状况以及人力资本等因素对农民工工资增长作用的大小并进行区域比较。结果表明:包含劳动力短缺等在内的劳动力市场环境的变化是农民工工资增长的主要原因,对农民工工资增长的贡献率达70%以上;最低工资标准的提高对农民工工资增长的贡献率达15%,但农民工人力资本及其就业结构的变化对其工资增长的作用较小。农民工工资增长原因也存在着区域差异,不同经济带所面临的劳动力短缺程度以及人力资本的变化大小存在着较大差异。     

区域经济环境对工资性别差异的影响——基于多层模型的分析途径

本文建立了中国城镇居民工资方程的多层模型,并提出了相应的工资差异分解方法,用于分析区域经济环境对工资性别差异的影响。结果表明,在所有地区劳动力市场中,均存在明显的工资性别差异。虽然地区市场化水平的提高有助于个体工资水平的提升,但却导致工资性别差异的扩大;尽管地区失业率的上升将对个体工资获得产生不利影响,但却导致工资性别差异的缩小。市场化程度越高的地区,工资性别歧视越严重。因此,在市场化进程中,政府在努力发展教育和扩大就业的同时,应致力于实施公平的工资分配制度,将有助于缓解针对女性的工资歧视,进而有助于工资性别差异的缩小。     

Skills Heterogeneity Among Graduate Workers: Real and Apparent Overeducation in the Spanish Labor Market

This paper takes account of skills heterogeneity among workers with a higher education degree and proposes a new measure to differentiate between real and apparent overeducation based on the level of cognitive skills actually achieved by the individuals. This proposal is applied to the study of the wage effects of overeducation in the Spanish labor market using data from PIAAC. The results suggest that between a quarter and a half of the graduate workers who appear to be overeducated in the Spanish labor market could be considered as being only apparently overeducated since they show a lower level of skills than that corresponding to their educational level or, alternatively, a level of cognitive skills which is commensurate with their job. Different returns are found for each group of overeducated individuals both when compared with adequately educated peers within a similar level of education (with greater wage penalties for apparently overeducated workers) and when the comparison is done with well-matched co-workers doing a similar job (with a wage premium for real overeducation but no significant returns for apparently overeducated workers). These different returns by skill levels beyond what overeducation measures implies that the market distinguishes between education and skills and that educational attainment per se does not perfectly align with acquired skills, meaning that traditional measures of overeducation would overstate the actual level of skills mismatch in the labor market.     

Employment transitions in the Netherlands, 1980–2004: Are low educated men subject to structural or cyclical crowding out?

This article addresses whether low educated men are displaced from their jobs by higher educated workers in the Netherlands in the period 1980–2004. In particular, we test whether structural or cyclical crowding out is predominant in the Dutch labor market. In order to do so, we try to explain the observed trends in education-specific transition rates to entry into first employment from education, exit from employment into unemployment or inactivity, and re-entry into employment from unemployment or inactivity for men by both business cycle effects (that is, changes in aggregate unemployment rates) and structural effects (that is, changes in labor supply–demand ratios for high educated). Discrete-time event history models are estimated using the OSA Labor Supply Panel 1985–2004. Retrospective information enables to study trends from 1980 onwards, so that structural effects can be distinguished from cyclical effects. The results show that structural crowding out exists at both the worker in- and outflow. First of all, it was observed that a growth in the oversupply of high educated increases the employment exit risk of low educated workers more so than that of higher educated ones. In addition, it was shown that an increase in the oversupply of high educated especially reduces the re-employment chances of low educated unemployed men. There is no evidence found for cyclical crowding out among low educated workers in the Dutch labor market.     

Skilled temporary and permanent immigrants in the United States

The US temporary migration system is closely intertwined with the permanent system. First, this paper defines the various temporary and permanent admission categories. It presents available statistics on the occupations of temporary migrants upon admission and upon adjustment to permanent residency, especially since the Immigration Act of 1990 went into effect in 1992. There has been a sizable increase in the number of temporary workers over the past few years and those who adjust from specialty workers (H-1B) and intracompany transferee (L) have increased the overall skill composition of permanent immigrants. Secondly, the paper reviews the literature on the labor market impact of temporary migrants in academics and in the private sector. While there are marked concentrations of foreign-born workers among the college educated and especially Ph.D.s, the literature raises concerns but does not establish adverse effects (wage differentials, unemployment, etc.). There is, however, reason for some concern given trends in the postdoctoral labor market and for employersin `job shops' who undercut US workers with temporary workers.     

Explaining levels of within-group wage inequality in U.S. labor markets

Most research on earnings inequality has focused on the growing gap between workers of different races and at different education, age, and income levels, but a large portion of the increasing inequality has actually occurred within these groups. This article focuses on the extent and sources of "within-group" wage inequality in more than 500 labor markets in the United States in 1990. In addition to documenting that within-group wage inequality across regions varies more widely today than over the past several decades, the analysis reveals that two frequently cited explanations of rising wage inequality over time have little impact on within-group wage inequality when measured at the local labor market level: (1) industrial shifts and (2) increased technology and trade. By contrast, flexible and insecure employment conditions (e.g., unemployment, contingent work, and immigration) are associated strongly with high local levels of within-group wage inequality, especially among women.     

中国劳动供求态势变化、问题与对策

本文分析了劳动供给和需求态势的变化,认为我国无限劳动供给时代已经结束,"招工难"具体地反映了劳动供求形势所发生的根本性变化,这一变化虽然并不意味着劳动力数量绝对短缺,但意味着劳动者工资只有实现合理增长才能保持劳动力资源充分供给。综合劳动供求变化,本文进一步探讨了当前劳动力市场的形势和问题,认为虽然从统计数字来看我国城镇失业率继续保持较低水平,但劳动力市场形势并不令人乐观,实际失业率水平仍然较高,同时就业的结构性矛盾越来越突出。为实现充分就业,我国仍然需要保持经济适度快速增长,同时需要改善就业质量,让劳动者更加公平地分享经济增长成果。     

劳动力市场“退出援助”方式与政策探析

做好困难群体的再就业工作,并不意味着人人都能重新上岗。由于某些原因,现有劳动力人口中的一部分目前仍滞留各地再就业中心的大龄下岗困难职工,将可能永远无法再回到社会主导产业中去,或找到稳定的就业机会。所以,可否考虑在利用“积极劳动力市场政策”提供岗位援助,为其创造“边缘性”就业机会的同时;利用“消极劳动力市场政策”提供保障援助,重点做好社会保险的接续工作,帮助这部分特殊就业困难群体逐渐、直至完全退出劳动力市场就业竞争,实现“下岗”向“退休”的平稳过渡。     

劳动就业转型与中国失业率时空变迁

1990年至2000年中国失业率的空间格局发生了很大变化,初步形成了失业率区域分布的“带”、“串”和“圈层”结构。这与我国1990年代的快速市场转型有关,也与工业化和城市化密切相关。多元回归分析表明,市场化变量和工业化变量对于失业率的变迁具有显著影响,不同地区劳动参与率和就业率的变化以及就业的产业结构变化。导致失业率的地区分布出现了很大差异。进一步的讨论认为,失业率的空间变迁反映了中国社会变迁代价的空间分布和社会不平等在整个中国和特定区域的扩大。     

Occupational mobility of American women: Compositional and structural changes, 1980–2007

In this paper, I document trends in women's occupational mobility between 1980 and 2007 in the U.S labor market, and link these trends to two distinct sources: compositional and structural changes. In this context, compositional changes refers to the over time trends in the distributions of men and women in the occupational wage hierarchy, while structural changes are the trends in the relative standing of occupations in the wage hierarchy over time. The findings provide empirical evidence for both processes, indicating that the impressive upward occupational mobility of American women is a consequence not only of their increased access to highly paid occupations, but also of the higher wage increments in their typical occupational profiles relative to men's—a structural change not often acknowledged by sociologists.     

The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages

We estimate the effects of labor market entry conditions on wages for male individuals first entering the Austrian labor market between 1978 and 2000. We find a large negative effect of unfavorable entry conditions on starting wages and a sizable negative long-run effect. Our preferred estimates imply a decrease in starting wages by about 0.9 % and a lifetime loss in wages of about 1.3 % for an increase in the initial local unemployment rate by one percentage point. We show that poor entry conditions are associated with lower quality of a worker’s first employer and that the quality of workers’ first employer explains as much as three-quarters of the observed long-run wage effects resulting from poor entry conditions. Moreover, wage effects are much more persistent for blue-collar workers because some of them appear to be permanently locked in into low-paying jobs/tasks.