Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans’ well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables associated with discretionary time and time poverty. The data confirm the idea that individuals in households with children have less discretionary time and are thus more likely to be time poor than those in households without children. Controlling for other household characteristics, an additional child reduces a household adult’s daily discretionary time by 35 min. Surprisingly, while one might expect the necessary and committed activities required of an individual to be less in a two-adult household with children than in a one-adult household with children because child care can be shared, the data show that the presence of such a second adult only marginally reduces the necessary and committed time burden of an individual household member. Perhaps even more surprisingly, household income is not a statistically significant correlate of discretionary time or time poverty.     

婴儿潮与人口高龄化对美国经济的影响

婴儿潮时代与其他世代相比较具有非常突出的特点及相当大的影响力。他们逐渐隐退并脱离劳动市场,其结果有可能会比预期的更加严重。首先,劳动市场会出现供需不均现象;其次庞大的金融资产将会转移。不仅如此,对消费市场也会产生一定的影响。深刻理解随着对国家经济产生重大影响的婴儿潮时代逐渐高龄化而引起的问题点,对数十年后将要经历类似问题的发展中国家的经济开发计划具有深远意义。     

Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System

According to a report recently issued by the Technical Panel for the US Social Security Administration, the long‐term financial outlook for the system is worse than previously thought. The worsening projected by the panel in the long‐run funding imbalance of the Social Security System is mostly due to the recommendation by the panel to add an extra four years to the currently projected increase in life expectancy by 2075: from 81.8 years to 85.9 years. The panel recommended no change in the current intermediate projected long‐run TFR of 1.9 and net immigration of 900,000 persons per year. The recommendation to increase the projected gains in life expectancy was based on international trends as well as on historical trends in the United States and the absence of biological evidence ruling out such gains. Industrial countries have a history of under‐predicting the growth of their elderly population, and it is expected that large mortality adjustments may be needed in the projections for public pension programs also in industrial countries other than the United States.     

The Census Bureau on Prospects for US Population Growth in the Twenty‐First Century

The U.S. Census Bureau periodically releases projections of the US resident population, detailed by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The most recent of these, issued 13 January 2000, for the first time extend to the year 2100 and also include information on the foreign‐bom population. (Earlier projections were carried up to 2080.) The extensive tabulations presenting the new set, and detailed explanation of the methodology and the assumptions underlying the projections, are accessible at the Census Bureau's web site: http://www.census.gov . A brief summary of some of the main results of these projections is reproduced below from United States Department of Commerce News, Washington, DC 20230. (The Census Bureau is an agency of the Department of Commerce.) Uncertainties as to future trends in fertility, mortality, and net migration over a period of some 100 years are very great, as is illustrated by the massive difference in the projected size of the population for 2100 in the three variants produced. The “middle” projected population figure of 571 million (which represents a growth of some 109 percent over its current level) is bracketed by “lowest” and “highest” alternative projections of 283 million and 1.18 billion, respectively. With somewhat lesser force, the point also applies to the 50‐year time span considered in the well‐known country‐by‐country projections of the United Nations. These projections are also detailed in three variants: low, middle, and high. The UN projections (last revised in 1998) envisage less rapid growth in the United States during the first part of the twenty‐first century than do the Census Bureau's. The projected population figures for 2050 in the three variants (low, middle, and high) are as follows (in millions):

The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the US Population: Emerging American Identities

Images and interpretations of the past, present, and future of the American racial and ethnic landscape are contradictory. Many accounts focus on the increasing diversity that results from immigration and differential natural increase as well as the proliferation of racial and ethnic categories in census data. Less attention has been paid to the formation and erosion of racial and ethnic identities produced by intermarriage and ethnic blending. The framers and custodians of census racial classifications assume a “geographic origins” definition of race and ethnicity, but the de facto measures in censuses and social surveys rely on folk categories that vary over time and are influenced by administrative practices and sociopolitical movements. We illustrate these issues through an in‐depth examination of the racial and ethnic reporting by whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics in the 2000 census. The emerging pattern, labeled here as the “Americanization” of racial and ethnic identities, and most evident for whites and blacks, is of simplified racial identities with little acknowledgment of complex ancestries. National origin is the predominant mode of reporting racial and ethnic identities among Asians and Hispanics, especially first‐generation immigrants. The future of racial and ethnic identities is unknowable, but continued high levels of immigration, intermarriage, and social mobility are likely to blur contemporary divisions and boundaries.     

Measuring Material Hardship among the US Population of Women with Disabilities Using Latent Class Analysis

We use data from the 2002 wave of the National Survey of America’s Families to develop and validate discrete measures of material hardship that can be used to examine the difficulties that vulnerable populations such as people with disabilities have in making ends meet. Using latent class analysis, we estimate two measurement models: multidimensional and omnibus. The multidimensional model provides separate estimates for food, medical, and housing and utilities hardship. The omnibus model is a single model of 11 hardship indicators. Results show three distinct classes of food hardship, three classes of medical hardship, and two classes of housing/utilities hardship. The omnibus model reveals eight classes. Both the multidimensional and omnibus models are largely invariant between women with disabilities and women without disabilities, indicating that valid comparisons can be made between these populations using these classes of hardship. These classes can be utilized in further research on the hardship of women with disabilities to inform the development of policies targeted to alleviate the specific forms of hardship experienced by disabled women.     

A Demographic Analysis of the Rise in the Prevalence of the US Population Overweight and/or Obese

Using data from the National Health Interview Survey for years spanning 1976 and 2001, this paper presents an age–period–cohort analysis of weight gain throughout the life cycle. We find that while all ages experienced an increase in the prevalence of those overweight and/or obese, the prevalence among young adults has grown at a faster rate than that of older age groups. The increases in body mass index are primarily due to period effects, not cohort or age effects. From the ordered logistical regression analyses, we find that the protective influence of factors such as education, income, and age on an individual’s body mass index have decreased over time. The analyses suggest that the increase in the prevalence of those overweight or obese is a phenomenon experienced by all demographic groups in the US, albeit to differing degrees.

俄罗斯人口贫困化与人口危机

苏联解体后,俄罗斯实行激进改革,经济持续6年下滑,人民生活水平急剧下降,已有1/3的人口生活在贫困线以下。经济生活的贫困,加剧了生育观念的变化,拒绝生育或减少生育的趋势增加。俄罗斯已进入世界上生育最低的十个国家的行列。贫困化加剧了人口危机,人口危机又加剧了俄罗斯的发展危机。要真正解决人口危机问题,首先要解决好经济发展问题。     

人口问题、人口安全与人口管理

最近,“人口安全”概念的提出开始引起人们的注意1,如何理解和评价这一概念?这是一个很值得研究的论题2。人口发展、人口问题、人口安全和人口管理是几个密切相关的概念。为了理解和界定人口安全概念的内涵与外延,首先有必要搞清人口安全与人口发展、人口问题和人口管理之间的联系与区别,以及这些概念所试图反映的实际意义。1人口发展何谓“人口发展”?刘铮先生认为,“人口发展是指作为社会生活主体的人口,随着社会生产方式的进步,社会经济条件的变化,其数量、质量和结构及其与外部的关系不断由低级向高级运动的过程。3”这是很准确、很恰当…     

2006年度中国十大杰出母亲——回族妇女马志英

马志英,女,41岁,回族,宁夏中卫市海原县海城镇南居委会居民。她先后两次下岗待业,在四次大手术和经济贫困的重压下,以赢弱的身体和慈母般的爱心坚持救助了185名贫困和残疾儿童,其中76名考入区内外各大中专院校。目前,仍有65名儿童生活在这个温暖的大家庭。     

Population in Literature

The treatment of population issues in modern fiction is examined under three headings: fear of population decline, fear of population excess, and fear of population professionals. Writings on population decline cover both the depopulation caused by too‐low fertility and science‐fictional scenarios of natural or human‐made demographic catastrophes. Population excess is chiefly portrayed through ecological dystopias, but includes also depictions of unchecked immigration from poor to rich countries. Population professionals as fictional protagonists range from villainous biomedical and social engineers to feckless family planning workers.     

西藏人口发展近况

依据《西藏民主改革50年》白皮书,西藏总人口由1959年的122．8万人增加到2008年的287．08万人,其中藏族和其他少数民族人口占95％以上;人口预期寿命由1951年和平解放时的35．5岁增加到了2008年的67岁。     

Population Research Briefs in Population Research and Policy Review

Population Research and Policy Review - This editorial is aimed at promoting the new series of Research Briefs in Population Research and Policy Review. These shorter, more data-centric articles...     

世界人口格局中的中国人口转变及其特点

20世纪 50年代以后的中国人口转变与西方传统人口转变有许多不同之处 ,具有自身的特点 ,即转变的迅速性、控制干预性、不彻底性、不稳定性、不平衡性。把握新时期稳定低生育水平的决定是将我国人口转变进行到底的重要措施和手段 ,是实现人口可持续发展的重要步骤     

A Comparative Analysis of the Validity of US State- and County-Level Social Capital Measures and Their Associations with Population Health

The goals of this study were to validate a number of available collective social capital measures at the US state and county levels, and to examine the relative extent to which these social capital measures are associated with population health outcomes. Measures of social capital at the US state level included aggregate indices based on the Annenberg National Health Communication Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), Petris Social Capital Index (PSCI), Putnam’s index, and Kim et al.’s scales. County-level measures consisted of PSCI, Rupasingha et al.’s social capital index, and a BRFSS-derived measure. These measures, except for the PSCI, showed evidence of acceptable validity. Moreover, we observed differences across the social capital measures in their associations with population health outcomes. The implications of the findings for future research in this area were discussed.     

失业人口与人口失业:经济学家和人口学家的对话

背景当下的中国正处在急剧的社会转型过程中 ,失业人口规模扩大、失业成因莫衷一是、失业挑战日甚一日……。中国人口的失业问题在世界上是最严重的国家之一。失业还是就业 ,在一些当事人看来 ,就似一个生存还是毁灭的哈姆雷特式难题。失业率上升极可能加剧城市贫困现象的发生和蔓延 ,带来人道主义的灾难。而在期待实现全面小康目标的有责任感的政府眼里 ,这是一个民生民权问题 ,也是一个社会安全问题。 2 0 0 2年 11月 ,党的十六大报告明确提出的“就业是民生之本”就透露了强烈的信号 ,表明了中国政府对人口就业问题极端关注的态度。中国…     

Population policy in India

The financial allocations made for the family planning program in India since the early 1950s suggest that a very high priority is attached to population control policy. At the current rate of exchange, the public sector investment will have been over 5.3 billion U.S. dollars by the end of the Seventh Five Year Plan, 1985–1990. It is claimed that over 85 million births have been averted over the last three decades. The number of couples currently protected by the various contraceptive methods, as of March, 1987, is estimated to be 55 million, or 41.4% of the 132.6 million eligible couples with wives 15–44 years-old.The long-term goal of the national population policy is to attain replacement level fertility (approximately 2.3 children) per couple by the turn of the century, implying a crude birth rate of 21 and a death rate of 9 per 1,000 persons. In view of very slow progress in the reduction of the crude birth rate, particularly in the Hindi-speaking populous states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana, the target for the country as a whole is most likely to be reached by 2010–2015 A.D.The observed stalled decline in the crude birth rate between 1975 and 1984 at the national level is analyzed in terms of changing age-sex composition, marital status, set-back to the family planning efforts, and other factors.The long-term projections indicate a national population of 996 million by the year 2,000 A.D., and 1,336 million in the year 2030 A.D. Further, for the very long run, a stationary population of 1.7 billion is hypothesized for India in the middle of the 22nd century.The data analyzed in this paper was collected in 1986 at the Delhi School of Economics through the courtesy of the Shastri Indo-Canadian Institute, Calgary/New Delhi. Appreciation is expressed to both institutions and to Drs. P.P. Talwar, M.K. Premi, K.B. Pathak, and Dr. Ashish Bose. Please direct correspondence to Dr. Chaudhry, Department of Political and Economic Science, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7K 5L0.     

中国的人口,安全吗?

背　景中国的人口 ,安全吗 ?这个问题会不会使你感到突兀 ,而不知何以作答 ?人口与安全之间有联系吗 ?有着怎样的联系 ?人口作为人类个体的集合 ,其安全与否指的是什么呢 ?是人口本身的安全 ,还是人口问题会威胁到其他领域的安全 ?在试图澄清这些迷雾之前 ,我们先来看一下关于安全的定义及其演变。按照辞海的释义 ,“安全”是指“不受威胁 ,或者没有危险、危害、损失”的状态。安全定义多用于军事国防领域 ,即所谓的“传统安全”概念 ,指的是不受外敌侵入威胁的“国家安全” ;在日常生活领域 ,矿工和地下工程人员所使用的“安全帽”、行人穿…