Estimation of non-occurrence probability in periodic model

Dimitrov and Khalil (1992) introduced a class of new probability distributions for modeling environmental evolution with periodic behavior. One of the key parameters in these distributions is α, the probability that the event being studied does not occur. In that article the authors derive an estimator for this parameter assuming a series of conditions. In this article it is shown that the estimator is valid under more general conditions, i.e. same of the assumptions are not necessary. It is shown that under the assumption that the elapsed time measured from the starting point of a period until the first occurrence time of the event given that the event occurred in this cycle is related to α, an approximate maximum likelihood estimator of a is proposed. The large sample properties of the estimator are discussed. Monte Carlo study is done for supporting the theoretical results.     

Discrete Nonparametric Kernel and Parametric Methods for the Modeling of Pavement Deterioration

This article is concerned with one discrete nonparametric kernel and two parametric regression approaches for providing the evolution law of pavement deterioration. The first parametric approach is a survival data analysis method; and the second is a nonlinear mixed-effects model. The nonparametric approach consists of a regression estimator using the discrete associated kernels. Some asymptotic properties of the discrete nonparametric kernel estimator are shown as, in particular, its almost sure consistency. Moreover, two data-driven bandwidth selection methods are also given, with a new theoretical explicit expression of optimal bandwidth provided for this nonparametric estimator. A comparative simulation study is realized with an application of bootstrap methods to a measure of statistical accuracy.     

On weak consistency in linear models with equi-correlated random errors

A new estimator in linear models with equi-correlated random errors is postulated. Consistency properties of the proposed estimator and the ordinary least squares estimator are studied. It is shown that the new estimator has smaller variance than the usual least squares estimator under some mild conditions. In addition, it is observed that the new estimator tends to be weakly consistent in many cases where the usual least squares estimator is not.     

A non stochastic ridge regression estimator and comparison with the James-Stein estimator

Abstract

This article presents a non-stochastic version of the Generalized Ridge Regression estimator that arises from a discussion of the properties of a Generalized Ridge Regression estimator whose shrinkage parameters are found to be close to their upper bounds. The resulting estimator takes the form of a shrinkage estimator that is superior to both the Ordinary Least Squares estimator and the James-Stein estimator under certain conditions. A numerical study is provided to investigate the range of signal to noise ratio under which the new estimator dominates the James-Stein estimator with respect to the prediction mean square error.     

The Sample Selection Model from a Method of Moments Perspective

It is shown how the usual two-step estimator for the standard sample selection model can be seen as a method of moments estimator. Standard GMM theory can be brought to bear on this model, greatly simplifying the derivation of the asymptotic properties of this model. Using this setup, the asymptotic variance is derived in detail and a consistent estimator of it is obtained that is guaranteed to be positive definite, in contrast with the estimator given in the literature. It is demonstrated how the MM approach easily accommodates variations on the estimator, like the two-step IV estimator that handles endogenous regressors, and a two-step GLS estimator. Furthermore, it is shown that from the MM formulation, it is straightforward to derive various specification tests, in particular tests for selection bias, equivalence with the censored regression model, normality, homoskedasticity, and exogeneity.     

On equalities between BLUES,WLSEs, and SLSEs

Necessary and sufficient conditions for equalities between the best linear unbiased estimator, the weighted least-squares estimator, and the simple least-squares estimator of the expectation vector in a general Gauss-Markoff model are given in some alternative formulations. The main result states, somewhat surprisingly, that the weighted least-squares estimator cannot be identical with the simple least-squares estimator unless they both coincide with the best linear unbiased estimator.     

Space-time estimation of a particle system model

Let X be a discrete time contact process (CP) on ?², as defined by Durrett and Levin (1994, Stochastic spatial models: a user's guide to ecological applications. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, 343, 329–350). We study the estimation of the model based on space-time evolution of X, that is, T + 1 successive observations of X on a finite subset S of sites. We consider the maximum marginal pseudo-likelihood (MPL) estimator and show that, when T→∞, this estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal for a non-vanishing supercritical CP. Numerical studies confirm these theoretical ones.     

A likelihood based estimator for vector autoregressive processes

A onestep estimator, which is an approximation to the unconditional maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the coefficient matrices of a Gaussian vector autoregressive process is presented. The onestep estimator is easy to compute and can be computed using standard software. Unlike the computation of the unconditional MLE, the computation of the onestep estimator does not require any iterative optimization and the computation is numerically stable. In finite samples the onestep estimator generally has smaller mean square error than the ordinary least squares estimator. In a simple model, where the unconditional MLE can be computed, numerical investigation shows that the onestep estimator is slightly worse than the unconditional MLE in terms of mean square error but superior to the ordinary least squares estimator. The limiting distribution of the onestep estimator for processes with some unit roots is derived.     

A modified Liu-type estimator with an intercept term under mixture experiments

We consider ridge regression with an intercept term under mixture experiments. We propose a new estimator which is shown to be a modified version of the Liu-type estimator. The so-called compound covariate estimator is applied to modify the Liu-type estimator. We then derive a formula of the total mean squared error (TMSE) of the proposed estimator. It is shown that the new estimator improves upon existing estimators in terms of the TMSE, and the performance of the new estimator is invariant under the change of the intercept term. We demonstrate the new estimator using a real dataset on mixture experiments.     

The exact risk performance of a pre-test estimator in a heteroskedastic linear regression model under the balanced loss function

We examine the risk of a pre-test estimator for regression coefficients after a pre-test for homoskedasticity under the Balanced Loss Function (BLF). We show analytically that the two stage Aitken estimator is dominated by the pre-test estimator with the critical value of unity, even if the BLF is used. We also show numerically that both the two stage Aitken estimator and the pre-test estimator can be dominated by the ordinary least squares estimator when “goodness of fit” is regarded as more important than precision of estimation.     

Sieved Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Wicksell's Problem and Related Deconvolution Problems

It is shown that the classical Wicksell problem is related to a deconvolution problem where the convolution kernel is unbounded, convex and decreasing on (0, ∞). For that type of deconvolution problems, the usual non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator of the distribution function is shown not to exist. A sieved maximum likelihood estimator is defined, and some algorithms are described that can be used to compute this estimator. Moreover, this estimator is proved to be strongly consistent.     

The Joint Treatment of Exact and Stochastic Restrictions

In regression analysis both exact and stochastic extraneous information may be represented via restrictions on the parameters of a linear model which then may be estimated by applying constrained generalized least squares. It is shown that this estimator can be recast as a computationally simpler estimator that is a combination of the ordinary least squares estimator and the discrepancy between the OLS estimator and both types of restrictions. The variance of the restricted parameters is explicitly shown to depend on the variance of the extraneous information.     

An estimator of the common mean of two normal populations

In this paper we consider the estimation of the common mean of two normal populations when the variances are unknown. If it is known that one specified variance is smaller than the other, then it is possible to modify the Graybill-Deal estimator in order to obtain a more efficient estimator. One such estimator is proposed by Mehta and Gurland (1969). We prove that this estimator is more efficient than the Graybill-Deal estimator under the condition that one variance is known to be less than the other.     

Prediction Error Property of the Lasso Estimator and its Generalization

The lasso procedure is an estimator‐shrinkage and variable selection method. This paper shows that there always exists an interval of tuning parameter values such that the corresponding mean squared prediction error for the lasso estimator is smaller than for the ordinary least squares estimator. For an estimator satisfying some condition such as unbiasedness, the paper defines the corresponding generalized lasso estimator. Its mean squared prediction error is shown to be smaller than that of the estimator for values of the tuning parameter in some interval. This implies that all unbiased estimators are not admissible. Simulation results for five models support the theoretical results.     

Liu-Type Logistic Estimator

It is known that multicollinearity inflates the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression. Especially, if the primary interest is in the coefficients, the impact of collinearity can be very serious. To deal with collinearity, a ridge estimator was proposed by Schaefer et al. The primary interest of this article is to introduce a Liu-type estimator that had a smaller total mean squared error (MSE) than the Schaefer's ridge estimator under certain conditions. Simulation studies were conducted that evaluated the performance of this estimator. Furthermore, the proposed estimator was applied to a real-life dataset.     

Variance estimation with Chao's sampling scheme

We show that the Hájek (Ann. Math Statist. (1964) 1491) variance estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator when the Chao sampling scheme (Chao, Biometrika 69 (1982) 653) is implemented. This estimator is simple and can be implemented with any statistical packages. We consider a numerical and an analytic method to show that this estimator can be used. A series of simulations supports our findings.     

On the Chao and Zelterman estimators in a binomial mixture model

Data from a surveillance system can be used to estimate the size of a disease population. For certain surveillance systems, a binomial mixture model arises as a natural choice. The Chao estimator estimates a lower bound of the population size. The Zelterman estimator estimates a parameter that is neither a lower bound nor an upper bound. By comparing the Chao estimator and the Zelterman estimator both theoretically and numerically, we conclude that the Chao estimator is better.     

On the use of the Stein variance estimator in the double <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-class estimator when each individual regression coefficient is estimated

In this paper we consider the double k-class estimator which incorporates the Stein variance estimator. This estimator is called the SVKK estimator. We derive the explicit formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of the SVKK estimator for each individual regression coefficient. It is shown analytically that the MSE performance of the Stein-rule estimator for each individual regression coefficient can be improved by utilizing the Stein variance estimator. Also, MSE’s of several estimators included in a family of the SVKK estimators are compared by numerical evaluations.     

Generalized preliminary test stochastic restricted estimator in the linear regression model

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose three generalized estimators, namely, generalized unrestricted estimator (GURE), generalized stochastic restricted estimator (GSRE), and generalized preliminary test stochastic restricted estimator (GPTSRE). The GURE can be used to represent the ridge estimator, almost unbiased ridge estimator (AURE), Liu estimator, and almost unbiased Liu estimator. When stochastic restrictions are available in addition to the sample information, the GSRE can be used to represent stochastic mixed ridge estimator, stochastic restricted Liu estimator, stochastic restricted almost unbiased ridge estimator, and stochastic restricted almost unbiased Liu estimator. The GPTSRE can be used to represent the preliminary test estimators based on mixed estimator. Using the GPTSRE, the properties of three other preliminary test estimators, namely preliminary test stochastic mixed ridge estimator, preliminary test stochastic restricted almost unbiased Liu estimator, and preliminary test stochastic restricted almost unbiased ridge estimator can also be discussed. The mean square error matrix criterion is used to obtain the superiority conditions to compare the estimators based on GPTSRE with some biased estimators for the two cases for which the stochastic restrictions are correct, and are not correct. Finally, a numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are done to illustrate the theoretical findings of the proposed estimators.     

ON THE USE OF THE STEIN VARIANCE ESTIMATOR IN THE DOUBLE k-CLASS ESTIMATOR IN REGRESSION

This paper investigates the predictive mean squared error performance of a modified double k-class estimator by incorporating the Stein variance estimator. Recent studies show that the performance of the Stein rule estimator can be improved by using the Stein variance estimator. However, as we demonstrate below, this conclusion does not hold in general for all members of the double k-class estimators. On the other hand, an estimator is found to have smaller predictive mean squared error than the Stein variance-Stein rule estimator, over quite large parts of the parameter space.