我国未来中长期劳动力需求预测

本文结合经济预测,对我国未来中长期2010-2050年劳动力需求进行了定量预测。预测结果表明,随着经济增长方式的转变、劳动生产率的提高,我国未来劳动力需求有下降的趋势,但下降比较缓慢,而我国劳动力供给量在＂十二五＂期间达到顶峰后会迅速下降,2016年后我国劳动力市场将可能长期面临劳动力短缺问题。     

Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.     

Feeding a growing world

Technology allows for the increased production of food to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population. However, in poor countries, technology may not be economically or environmentally affordable. The balance between food supply and population growth will depend upon government's ability to design and enforce policies and programs to deal with increased population, poverty, and environmental degradation. Approaches will be specific to a country's needs. In Bangladesh, food aid will be needed. In Zaire, political reform will be required. Many countries will have to shift from investments in war to social development. Three kinds of countries will experience difficulty in feeding their populations: 1) countries with little or no reserves of fertile land or water and insufficient funds for food imports; 2) countries that have sufficient reserves of land and water but suffer from government policy failures and neglect of agriculture; and countries with political instability and civil war, which invariably are linked with famine and drought. The future prospects will be a slow increase in dietary intake in most regions, fluctuations in food availability and prices, increased crop yields and land under cultivation, and slower expansion of agricultural lands due to environmental constraints. Pessimists have predicted increased environmental costs of food production due to soil erosion, pesticide contamination of soil and water, loss of species, and fertilizer run-off. Optimists have argued that new lands can be brought under cultivation and investments in agricultural research can help to increase food productivity. As Population Council vice president in the Research Division, John Bongaarts has reiterated that a positive outcome is more likely if population growth can be stopped.     

改革开放以来我国对外劳务输出发展研究

中国正在努力完成从人口大国到人力资源大国的转变,并实施"走出去"战略。在这一背景之下,积极参与国际劳务市场,促进我国的人力资源开发,将具有重要的现实意义。积极开展对外劳务合作,将会促使我国劳动力资源更加有效地参与国际劳务市场。为了更好地开展对外劳务输出,需要认真研究相关各国劳动力资源的未来变化趋势,及时掌握各国劳动力市场供需情况、有关劳务政策新动向以及市场变化情况等。这样才能更好地制定劳务输出计划,扩大劳务输出规模。在增加劳务输出数量的同时,还需要不断提高劳务人员的综合素质。     

The population problems in the countryside of China from the viewpoint of ecological economy]

There is a very close relationship between the population and the economy. The economy is the foundation for the existence and development of the population. Different socioeconomic patterns will determine population rules and population development, they have a strong influence on the social economy and the development of the entire society, and they may control the pace of social and economic development. In the last 30 years, excessive population growth has caused a great many difficulties for Socialist construction, overburdened agriculture, and created an imbalance in agricultural ecology. In order to understand the relationship between the development of the agricultural population and agricultural production, we have to understand to dominant position held by people in an agricultural ecology system. People have to control their own reproduction and match it with the productivity of the agricultural ecology system. Unrestrained population growth in the countryside is the main reason for an imbalance in China's agricultural ecology. Urgent action is needed to control the population growth in the rural areas, to fully utilized the available labor force, to promote the level of agricultural productivity, and to provide more employment opportunities. The final goal is to match China's huge agricultural human resources with its rich resources. investment should be encouraged to increase the wisdom and quality of the agricultural population. Both the quality and quantity of the agricultural labor force should also match development of agricultural productivity. In this way, a normal condition of agricultural ecology may be maintained.     

黑龙江省农村剩余劳动力转移问题研究

黑龙江省是中国粮食主产区,粮食综合生产能力在一定程度上取决于该省农民就业程度与效果。目前,黑龙江省农村剩余劳动力不但数量大,而且,转移时遇到的困难和问题多。剩余劳动力转移问题的解决,对黑龙江农村经济的发展尤为重要,剩余劳动力转移出去,才能提高农业生产率,实现农业的适度规模经营,才能提高农业吸收现代技术的能力,真正实现农业的现代化,把黑龙江省农村建成社会主义新农村。     

新农村建设中的农村劳动力供求：基于安徽省的研究

本文基于安徽省的研究,得出关于我国新农村建设中的农村劳动力供求的基本结论是:劳动力供给总体上大于劳动力需求;经济增长的速度将成为决定劳动力供求缺口大小的决定性因素;农村地区还存在农村科技人员的劳动力短缺的特征。根据我国新农村建设的实际情况,扩大劳动力需求和解决农村就业问题的关键之举在于,走农村产业化道路,加快农村剩余劳动力的转移就业。与此同时,农村科技人员的短缺问题,也应该引起我们的关注。     

Further discussion of the quantitative limitation of population growth and planned adjustment]

The problem of the quantitative limitation of population growth is related to the development of economic and social productivity. Under a Socialist system, the reproduction of people themselves may follow a projected plan, in order that population growth may match economic growth, the quality of the population may be promoted, and sufficient employment will be possible for the entire labor force. The problem of the quantitative limitation of population growth, however, still exists. In the early stage of social development under Socialism, a quantitative limitation of population growth and planned adjustment were necessary in order to provide enough basic needs for daily livelihood and employment. In the later stage of social development, a quantitative limitation of the population growth and planned adjustment are still needed for the purpose of promoting population quality and ensuring the entire development of the people. Under a socialist system, excessive labor productivity will not produce pressure on the population; instead, it will provide new content for the planned adjustment of people's production and reproduction. From here, the capability of dealing with the problem of the newly increased population will be strengthened, and also the capability of working out a planned adjustment between the two productions will be enhanced.     

Some fundamental problems concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development]

The population growth rate is closely related to the quality of economic life, available funds for individual and social consumption, national income to be used for reproduction, and the labor employment situation. Since liberation, socialism has not been able to show its superiority, mainly because of China's large population figure, low economic productivity, low national income, and poor management in the relationship between consumption and accumulation. In order to solve these problems, we need to adequately control the pace of the population growth and match the rate of population growth with the pace of economic development. A way to increase national income is through saving and avoiding unnecessary waste. Social expenditures on education, culture, science, health and medical care, social welfare, and investment in the promotion of people's wisdom should all be increased. Meanwhile, the living standard of the people needs to be raised, and capital accumulation should also be managed so that funds will be available for industrial and economic enterprises. Existing inefficient production enterprises should be properly reorganized so that full employment may be achieved. In this way, the national economy will have more prosperity, and the people will benefit more from the Socialist policy.     

Indigenous labor supply,sustenance organization,and population redistribution in nonmetropolitan america: An extension of the ecological theory of migration

The ecological theory of migration asserts that change in sustenance organization, to the extent that it produces changes in the opportunities for living, necessitates a change in population size. Migration may thus be viewed as a demographic response to the population’s need to reestablish a balance between its size and sustenance organization, thus attaining its best possible living standard. However, the levels of net in- or out-migration needed to restore the balance should be affected by the degree of positive or negative growth of the indigenous labor force population. We thus test the hypothesis that changes in opportunities for living will be balanced by net changes in the number of persons in the labor force, where this is a function of both indigenous labor supply and net migration.     

World population growth and the food supply]

The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.     

新农保对中国农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响

随着农村青壮年劳动力大规模转移,我国农村劳动力老龄化趋势不断加剧,我国农业生产可持续发展面临挑战,在这一背景下对农村老年人劳动时间供给状况进行研究显得十分必要。从2009年开始我国实施了“新农保”政策,而这一政策的实施是否会对老年人农业劳动时间供给产生影响,如有则影响程度又如何呢？基于此本文运用倾向值匹配方法以控制老年人参与“新农保”的自选择所引起的内生性问题,利用农业部全国抽样调查数据分析了我国现行的“新农保”制度对于农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响。研究表明：农村老年人参与“新农保”后不会完全停止劳动供给,但会显著减少劳动时间;参与“新农保”的老年人劳动时间减少的幅度有限,老年人总劳动时间、农业劳动时间、外出从事非农劳动时间仅分别减少了7.06天、5.58天、3.53天;在相同的养老保障水平下老年人劳动时间减少程度在地区间呈现出“西部＞中部＞东部”的特点。     

中国中长期劳动力供需趋势分析

文章采用Leslie方法预测2015-2050年中国人口总量及其年龄分布结构．据此预测劳动年龄人口的劳动力供给总量,根据经济增长的就业弹性预测劳动力的需求总量,计算劳动力供需缺口。结果表明．劳动力供给和需求总量都呈现减少趋势,供给减少更快,2015年后,劳动力市场将出现供不应求的现象。供需缺口将长期存在并有扩大趋势。面对劳动力市场出现的供需缺口问题,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Analysis on China's Labor Supply and Demand Trend for a Long-term

The paper take Leslie method to forecast China's total population and its age distribution structure from 2015 to 2050,and then predict the total labor supply of the working-age population,estimate the total demand for labor according to the employment elasticity of the economic growth,calculated the gap between labor supply and demand.The results show that both the labor supply and demand showed a decreasing trend,but the supply reduced faster than demand,after 2015,the labor market appears shortage,the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time and have a tendency to expand.Facing of the new situation and new problems of the labor market,we recommend some corresponding policy.     

Business visits,knowledge diffusion and productivity

We investigate whether labor mobility can be a distinct source of growth by studying the productivity impact of business visits (BVs), vis-à-vis that of other well-known drivers of productivity enhancement. Our analysis uses an unbalanced panel—covering on average 16 sectors per year in ten countries during the period 1998–2011—which combines unique and novel data on BVs sourced from the US National Business Travel Association with Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data on R&D and capital formation. We find that mobility through BVs is an effective mechanism to improve productivity, being about half that obtained by investing in R&D. This relevant finding invites viewing short-term mobility as a strategic mechanism and prospective policy tool to overcome productivity slowdowns and foster economic growth.     

Elder Care and Migrant Labor in Europe: A Demographic Outlook

This article examines the demand for migrant labor in older‐adult care as one of the key aspects of the aging and migration nexus. It reviews the demographic determinants that have shaped demand for and provision of older‐adult care across Europe. Using the EU Labour Force Survey, new comparative estimates are generated on the employment of migrants in care occupations and the channels of entry into the European labor market. Projections on demand for and supply of care to the older population reveal a future gap in both formal and informal provision. It is shown that, owing to institutional, economic, and social constraints, the significant growth of the care workforce that will be required to meet the future needs of Europe's aging populations is unlikely to be achieved by relying exclusively on EU labor supply. The conclusions outline some implications for future immigration policies.     

中国劳动供求态势变化、问题与对策

本文分析了劳动供给和需求态势的变化,认为我国无限劳动供给时代已经结束,"招工难"具体地反映了劳动供求形势所发生的根本性变化,这一变化虽然并不意味着劳动力数量绝对短缺,但意味着劳动者工资只有实现合理增长才能保持劳动力资源充分供给。综合劳动供求变化,本文进一步探讨了当前劳动力市场的形势和问题,认为虽然从统计数字来看我国城镇失业率继续保持较低水平,但劳动力市场形势并不令人乐观,实际失业率水平仍然较高,同时就业的结构性矛盾越来越突出。为实现充分就业,我国仍然需要保持经济适度快速增长,同时需要改善就业质量,让劳动者更加公平地分享经济增长成果。     

Population distribution and economic development in Africa: The need for urbanization policies

Many countries in Africa are facing severe development problems because of high rates of population growth, stagnant or declining agricultural productivity, and increasing migration of the rural poor to large cities. Most demographic studies of Africa ignore problems arising from the spatial distribution of population and public allocation of investment. Strategic planning of the location of development investments in ways that will prevent or reduce excessive concentration of population and productive activities in large primary cities is becoming increasingly important for many African governments. In this article it is argued that the excessive growth of primary cities in predominantly rural countries can be detrimental to their economic recovery. Policies encouraging more widespread distribution of population in secondary cities and towns and policies promoting investment in physical infrastructure, marketing, small-scale manufacturing, and agroprocessing in secondary cities and towns can provide a stronger base for both rural and urban development in many African countries in the future.     

中国劳动力供求关系形势及未来变化趋势研究——兼对中国劳动市场刘易斯拐点的认识和判断

通过对我国当前的劳动力供求关系从理论到实践进行分析,可以判断目前刘易斯拐点还没有真正到来。随着中国经济的持续增长,劳动需求将会不断增加,而持续的低生育率将会导致未来劳动供给减少。为了对未来劳动供需关系有一个较为客观的判定,采用生产函数法,设计高低两个未来经济增长速度方案,在给定经济增长速度下采用永续盘存法计算未来资本存量的增长,结合对TFP给出相应假设,测算得到未来劳动力的需求。比较已有的劳动供给预测结果,即可预测我国未来劳动力供求的第一个刘易斯拐点将在2015~2020年前后出现。因此我国未来宏观经济发展应该适应未来劳动供求关系的变动。     

大连市就业状况及劳动力供求演变趋势分析

就业是当今中国社会最突出的社会经济问题。对于正步入工业化后期阶段、经济和社会快速发展的大连市而言．目前及今后一段时期的就业和劳动力供求趋势是政府和社会密切关注的重要问题。本文结合统计资料．深入探讨了大连目前及今后一段时期内的就业和劳动力供求发展趋势,指出,按目前的人口和社会经济发展趋势。2015年前后大连将真正迎来劳动力短缺期,此后劳动力缺口将持续扩大。并将影响经济社会发展。要确保经济和社会的快速、持续增长．今后大连市应加大对人力资源的开发和人才引进力度,全面提升劳动者职业技能。同时加快科技进步步伐．全力提升社会生产力水平。以应对劳动力短缺所带来的制约和影响。