印度人口政策述评

20世纪印度人口的高速增长令人注目.作为世界第二人口大国的印度来说,人口政策不仅决定其人口类型、人口增长模式,还决定着整个民族的命运.本文对半个世纪以来印度人口政策的发展、转变作了简要概述,并着重对2000年印度新出台的人口政策进行了详细的分析和评述.     

On Exponential Growth and Half-Lives: A Comment on Bermingham

A recent paper (hereafter referred to as the Paper), Bermingham (2003), presented what appeared to be an analytical review of current situation of declining population growth rates in many parts of the world. The Paper suggested that the increasing growth rates before about 1970 constituted exponential growth, but that the currently declining growth rates were not exponential growth. Hence, the paper asserted that we should not use the terms exponential growth and doubling times in describing the current situation. Many of the suggestions in the paper are contrary to established mathematics. These suggestions are examined here in some detail.     

Population and Resources: An Exploration of Reproductive and Environmental Externalities

This article identifies four types of social externalities associated with fertility behavior. Three are shown to be pronatalist in their effects. These three are exemplified by the way theories of economic growth treat fertility and natural resources, the way population growth and economic stress in poor countries are seen by environmental and resource economists, and the way development economists accommodate environmental stress in their analysis of poverty. It is shown that the fourth type of externality, in which children are regarded as an end in themselves, can even provide an invidious link between fertility decisions and the use of the local natural‐resource base among poor rural households in poor countries. The fourth type is used to develop a theory of fertility transitions in the contemporary world; the theory views such transitions as disequilibrium phenomena.     

中国人口分布合理性研究——基于发展方式角度

主体功能区划的人口政策目标是实现人口的合理分布及有序流动。在阐释这个目标的基础上,文章认为经济—人口分布协调是最重要的理,通过构建区域经济规模—人口规模协调度度量模型验证了这是在发达国家已经普遍存在的理,而我国经济与人口的分布处于较不合理状态。以缪尔达尔循环因果积累理论为基础,分析了较不合理的制度成因是我国不顾以人为本的抄近路发展方式,其造成经济系统收益和人口系统福利相互转化的渠道效率低下,并且在经济聚集与人口聚集之间存在制度障碍。据此,对应提出了在财税体制、政绩评价体系和人口相关管理制度等方面的制度调整对策。     

论中国人口逆淘汰：驳斥一个伪命题

本文对中国人口（素质）逆淘汰问题进行定性和定量的分析,认为不能简单的以城乡生育率的差异去考量人口的整体素质变化。人口的整体素质变动是一个动态的过程,以静态的、封闭的人口观点去看待人口素质问题必然得出与事实不相符合的结论。把城镇、农村人口当作两个封闭的群体。同时忽视农村人口素质快速提升的的现实,得出的中国人口逆淘汰的结论必然是一个伪命题。     

试论卫生资源与老年人口增长之间的协调发展

本文根据国家卫生资源和利用的一些指标 ,结合老年人口生存期的残障状态 ,分析了卫生资源配置和利用与老年人口增长之间的缺口 ,研究了在目前社会发展水平下中国卫生资源向老年人口群体倾斜的可能性和合理性 ,同时探讨了以北京为代表的相对发达地区的卫生资源的合理流向和利用问题 ,从而对城市老年人口的社会支持系统提出了一些对策建议。     

从人口大国到人力资本大国:1980～2000年

过去20年（1980～2000年）中国总人力资本存量翻了一番,占世界总人力资本存量的比重高达1/4,已经从世界人口大国成为人力资本大国,这是中国21世纪成为世界经济强国最具竞争优势和最重要的战略资产。未来20年是中国教育发展的“黄金时期”,最重要的发展机遇就是全面建立世界上最大的学习型社会,进一步提高全体人民的人力资本。这也是全面建立小康社会、提高人民生活质量的重要内容。     

顺德市人口、资源、环境与可持续发展

本文模拟了顺德市在不实行计划生育政策的条件下的人口增长情况 ,结果发现由于计划生育 ,在 1971- 1998年间 ,顺德市少生了 5 0多万人口 ,从而使顺德市的人口、资源、环境在经济高速发展的情况下仍能基本协调。文章也分析了顺德市目前的人口、资源与环境可持续发展的状况和问题 ,并提出了一些建议     

西藏的人口与土地资源的承载能力

中国西藏自治区虽然“地大” ,但并非人们想象的那样“物博”。随着人口的不断增加 ,特别是农牧区人口的快速增加 ,西藏的一些自然资源也面临过渡开采和利用问题 ,这一问题在西藏草原畜牧业的发展上表现得尤为突出 ,使得西藏这一最古老的产业面临严峻的挑战。与此同时 ,作者还从多个视角提出了应对这一挑战的诸多建议     

关于人口预测问题的思考

人口预测 ,作为经济、社会研究的一种方法 ,应用越来越广泛 ,也越来越受到人们的重视。在描绘未来小康社会的蓝图时 ,首先要考虑的是未来中国的人口数量、结构、分布、劳动力、负担系数等等 ,这又必须通过人口预测来一一显示。2 0多年前 ,我国人口学界对人口预测还比较陌生。当人们看到只要向计算机中输入一些数字后 ,就能输出 1 0年、2 0年 ,甚至几十年、上百年的各种人口变动的结果时 ,在惊呼之余 ,又感到高深莫测。而今天 ,人口预测已不是什么难事 ,任何一个人口专业的学生 ,或即使不是学人口专业的 ,只要懂得一些人口学知识 ,又会操作计…     

Comment on ``Hispanic Population 1990–2000: Growth and Change', Population Research and Policy Review,Special Issue on the 2000 Census

Population Research and Policy Review -     

Population and economics: A bioeconomic analysis

The notion of optimal population is recast as a problem of optimal scale (population times per capita resource use). Bioeconomic limits to scale are considered, drawing on concepts from A.J. Lotka and N. Georgescu-Roegen. The ethical choice between many people at low resource use per capita versus fewer people at higher resource per capita transcends bioeconomics, but is unavoidable and highlights the issue of sufficiency as well as efficiency. A policy of increasing resource severance taxes and lowering income taxes, especially on lower incomes, is suggested as a way of serving both efficiency and sufficiency.Presented at the symposium on Population and Scarcity: The Forgotten Dimensions.     

关于人口、资源、环境经济学的若干思考

本文通过对人口、资源、环境、经济系统框架结构的分析导出了该学科应实现的两个目标:维持系统平衡和实现系统效益最大化。围绕这两个目标讨论了该学科的研究内容,提出了应将人口、资源、环境、经济大系统建设成为灵敏的自组织系统,引入“生态人”新观念,以系统效益最大化为新的价值判断标准。     

西藏人口、资源、环境与可持续发展

根据对西藏人口、资源与环境现状的分析 ,找出存在的问题 ,揭示人口与资源 ,人口与环境之间的相互关系及发展趋势 ;从而使人们对西藏目前的人口与资源 ,人口与环境及三者与可持续发展有一个较客观、理性的认识 ;并提出相应的对策和具体措施 ,以求人口、资源、环境之间的协调与可持续发展。     

On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum

This article decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts: “nonstable” momentum and “stable” momentum. Nonstable momentum depends on deviations between a population’s current age distribution and its implied stable age distribution. Stable momentum is a function of deviations between a population’s implied stable and stationary age distributions. In general, the factorization of total momentum into the product of nonstable and stable momentum is a very good approximation. The factorization is exact, however, when the current age distribution is stable or when observed fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating nonstable, stable, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the article brings together disparate strands of the population momentum literature and shows how the various kinds of momentum fit together into a single unifying framework.     

论和谐人口

1和谐人口的提出及内涵人口发展目标一直是人口学研究的重要课题,甚至可以说自有人口研究以来,关于人口发展目标的研究一直是人口研究的重要内容。这表明,人口发展目标是人类共同关注的重要问题。适度人口是人口目标研究中的重要成果。早在公元前300多年前,柏拉图就主张一个国家的人口应该适当,“必须不使人民过多而使国家过大,也不使人民过少而使国家过小”。现代适度人口思想发端于约翰.穆勒,他把“报酬递减规律”应用于农业人口规模研究,提出了人口增长过快超过一定点之后会导致人均产量下降的观点。系统提出和研究适度人口理论的分别是…     

On the Tasks of a Population Commission: A 1971 Statement by Donald Rumsfeld

In its most familiar form, analytic assessment of the impact of demographic change on human affairs is the product of a decentralized cottage industry: individual scholars collecting information, thinking about its meaning, testing hypotheses, and publishing their findings. Guidance through the power of the purse and through institutional design that creates and sustains cooperating groups of researchers can impose some order and coherence on such spontaneous activity. But the sum total of the result may lack balance and leave important aspects of relevant issues inadequately explored. Even when research findings are picked up by the media and reach a broader public, the haphazardness of that process helps further to explain why the salience of population change to human welfare and its importance in public policymaking are poorly understood. The syndrome is not unique to the field of population, but the typically long time‐lags with which aggregate population change affects economic and social phenomena make it particularly difficult for the topic to claim public attention. A time‐tested, if less than fool‐proof remedy is the periodic effort to orchestrate a systematic and thorough examination of the causes, consequences, and policy implications of demographic processes. Because the most potent frame for policymaking is the state, the logical primary locus for such stocktaking is at the country level. The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future was a uniquely ambitious enterprise of this sort. The Commission was established by the US Congress in 1970 as a result of a presidential initiative. Along with the work of two earlier British Royal Commissions on population, this US effort, mutatis mutandis, can serve as a model for in‐depth examinations conducted at the national level anywhere. Chaired by John D. Rockefeller 3rd, the Commission submitted its final report to President Richard M. Nixon in March 1972. The background studies to the report were published in seven hefty volumes; an index to these volumes was published in 1975. Reproduced below is a statement to the Commission delivered on April 14, 1971 by Donald Rumsfeld, then Counsellor to President Nixon and in charge of the Office of Economic Opportunity. (Currently, Mr. Rumsfeld serves as US Secretary of Defense.) The brief statement articulates with great clarity the objectives of the Commission and the considerations that prompted them. The text originally appeared in Vol. 7 (pp. 1‐3) of the Commission's background reports, which contains the statements at public hearings conducted by the Commission. National efforts toward comprehensive scientific reviews of population issues have their analogs at the international level. Especially notable on that score were the preparatory studies presented at the 1954 Rome and 1965 Belgrade world population conferences. The world population conferences that took place in Bucharest in 1974, in Mexico City in 1984, and in Cairo in 1994 were intergovernmental and political rather than scientific and technical meetings, but they also generated a fair amount of prior research. The year 2004 will break the decadal sequence of large‐scale international meetings on population, and apart from the quadrennial congresses of the IUSSP, which showcase the voluntary research offerings of its members, none is being planned for the coming years. A partial substitute will be meetings organized by the UN's regional economic and social commissions. The first of these took place in 2002 for the Asia‐Pacific region; the meetings for the other regions will be held in 2003‐04. The analytic and technical contribution of these meetings, however, is expected to be at best modest. National efforts of the type carried out 30 years ago by the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future would be all the more salutary.