THE IMPACT OF MERGERS ON FARES STRUCTURE: EVIDENCE FROM EUROPEAN LOW‐COST AIRLINES

This paper examines mergers that lead to an almost immediate replacement of the target firm's business model in favor of that of the acquiring firm. We examine the post‐merger behavior of the two leading European dedicated low‐cost airlines, EasyJet and Ryanair, each acquiring another low‐cost airline, Go Fly and Buzz, respectively. We find that both takeovers had an immediate and sustained impact on both the pricing structures and the extent of intertemporal price schedules used on the acquired routes, with early booking fares noticeably reduced and only very late booking fares increased. The analysis suggests that the takeovers had a net beneficial effect for consumers, at least in price terms, as a consequence of the introduction of the acquiring firms' business models and associated yield management pricing systems. (JEL L11, L13, L93)     

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND CONSUMER SPENDING AT THE ZERO BOUND: MICRO EVIDENCE

Standard theoretical models predict that higher inflation expectations generate greater current consumer spending at the zero lower bound of interest rates. However, recent empirical studies using U.S. micro data find negative results for this relationship. We use micro data for Japan, which has experienced low interest rates for a prolonged period, to estimate ordered probit models with a variety of controls. We find robust evidence supporting the prediction of standard models: survey respondents with higher expected inflation tend to indicate that their household has increased real spending compared with 1 year ago but will decrease it in the future. This relationship appears to be stronger for asset holders and older people. (JEL E20, E21, E30, E31, E50, E52)     

OUTSOURCING TYPES, RELATIVE WAGES, AND THE DEMAND FOR SKILLED WORKERS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM U.S. MANUFACTURING

Existing studies on the impact of outsourcing on relative wages and the demand for skilled workers mainly focus on aggregate outsourcing, in which imported intermediate inputs are used as a proxy. We depart from the existing studies by focusing on various types of outsourcing based on the six-digit NAICS U.S. manufacturing data. We show that downstream materials and service outsourcing are skill biased, whereas upstream materials outsourcing is not. We also produce other supplementary results pertaining to the impact of technology, different capital inputs on relative wages, and the demand for skilled workers. ( JEL C33, F14, F15)     

INTERRACIAL WORKPLACE COOPERATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE NBA

Using data from the National Basketball Association (NBA), we examine whether patterns of workplace cooperation occur disproportionately among workers of the same race. We find that, holding constant the composition of teammates on the floor, basketball players are no more likely to complete an assist to a player of the same race than a player of a different race. Our confidence interval allows us to reject even small amounts of same‐race bias in passing patterns. We find some evidence of own‐race bias in situations where the outcome of a particular play is less important. Our findings suggest that high levels of interracial cooperation can occur in a setting where workers are operating in a highly visible setting with strong incentives to behave efficiently. (JEL J15, J71, L23)     

PEER PRESSURE: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM RESTROOM BEHAVIOR

We provide experimental evidence on the effect of peer pressure on individual behavior. Specifically, we study the effect of being exposed to an observer in a public restroom on handwashing and urinal flushing behavior. Our estimates show that being exposed to an observer increases the probability of handwashing by 13 percentage points and the probability of urinal flushing by 15 percentage points. Given that handwashing and urinal flushing have social benefits that exceed individual benefits, our findings provide support for peer pressure as an additional way of addressing the social suboptimality arising from externalities. (JEL C91, C93)     

CONSUMERS ARE NOT RICARDIAN: EVIDENCE FROM NINETEEN COUNTRIES

I develop a model which nests both Ricardian equivalence and an alternative non-Ricardian theory. The alternative is a stochastic variant of Blanchard's [1985] model, and its empirical implications are derived. I then test Ricardian equivalence against this alternative using data from nineteen countries. Ricardian equivalence is resoundingly rejected. Moreover, the estimated deviation from Ricardian equivalence is roughly what one would expect if households faced perfect insurance markets and did no have altruistic bequest motives. For many purposes, however, the estimated deviation from Ricardian equivalence has no practical import.     

INFORMATION DISCLOSURE POLICIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY

While theory suggests that information programs may correct market failures and improve welfare, the empirical impacts of these policies remain undetermined. We show that mandatory disclosure programs in the electricity industry achieve stated policy goals. We find that the proportion of fossil fuels decreases, and the proportion of clean fuels increases in response to disclosure programs. However, the programs may produce unintended consequences. For example, programs may make “clean” firms cleaner, while leaving “dirty” firms relatively unchanged. If the marginal benefits of pollution abatement are larger at dirty firms than at clean firms, disclosure programs may induce inefficient abatement allocations. (JEL D83, Q58, D21)     

EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND EXTREME VIOLENCE: EVIDENCE FROM RUSSIA

We study the relationship between extreme temperatures and violent mortality, employing novel regional panel data from Russia. We find that extremely hot temperatures increase violent mortality, while extremely cold temperatures have no effect. The impact of hot temperature on violence is unequal across gender and age groups, rises noticeably during weekends, and leads to considerable social costs. Our findings also suggest that better job opportunities and lower vodka consumption may decrease this impact. The results underscore that economic policies need to target vulnerable population groups to mitigate the adverse impact of extreme temperatures. (JEL Q54, I14, K42)     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR CONTRACTS: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL

The conventional Keynesian model suggests that frictions created by nominal wage contracts generate a positive relationship between inflation and output. On the other hand, the New Classical/Real Business Cycle theory claims that firms and workers base their employment behavior, and hence output, on the marginal product of labor ignoring the efficiencies of fixed nominal wage contracts. Using Brazilian data, where nominal wages were indexed by law, tests show that fixed nominal wage contracts insignificantly affected output. Thus, the data support the view that fixed nominal wages play an insignificant role in determining the evolution of output. ( JEL E31)     

WORKFORCE COMPOSITION AND FIRM PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

We study the relationship between workforce composition and firm productivity based on a new employee‐employer‐matched data set, using an array of workforce characteristics and three alternative measures of firm productivity. While firm age is not essential for the performance of firms, those of smaller size and those in the steel and transportation industries outperform others. Moreover, labor quality, particularly the middle‐aged with higher education, contributes significantly to firms' productivity. Furthermore, economic incentives and market competition both play important roles in the performance of firms. Finally, there is an employer‐size premium with larger firms paying higher wages and nonwage benefits. (JEL C33, D20, J30)     

NUMERACY AND ON-THE-JOB PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM LOAN OFFICERS

We examine how the numeracy level of employees influences their on-the-job performance. Based on an administrative dataset of a retail bank we relate the performance of loan officers in a standardized math test to the accuracy of their credit assessments of small business borrowers. We find that loan officers with a high level of numeracy are more accurate in assessing the credit risk of borrowers. The effect is most pronounced during the precrisis credit boom period when it is arguably more difficult to pick out risky borrowers. (JEL G21, J24)     

INEQUALITY AND TRUST: NEW EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA

We estimate the causal link from income inequality to generalized trust by reconsidering the country‐level evidence on this issue. First, we exploit the panel dimension of the data, thus controlling for any country unobservable time‐invariant variables, and find a negative relationship between the two variables that holds only for developed countries. Second, we focus on these advanced economies and provide instrumental variable estimates using the predicted exposure to technological change as an exogenous driver of inequality. According to our findings, the negative causal effect of inequality on trust is even larger than that coming from ordinary least squares estimation. We also provide new insights on the effects of different dimensions of inequality, exploiting measures of both static inequality—such as the Gini index and top income shares—and dynamic inequality—proxied by intergenerational income mobility. (JEL D31, O15, Z13)     

WAGE DISCRIMINATION ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS: EVIDENCE FROM ISRAEL

We investigate wage differentials between ethnic groups in Israel, proposing a new methodology and an illustration based on the latest Israeli census. By using separate wage equations for the various occupations, our methodology allows us to decompose the wage differential into three components: one reflecting human capital differences; one reflecting wage discrimination; and a third indicating occupational segregation. We find that 70 percent of the wage gap is due to segregation, 26 percent to wage discrimination and only 4 percent to human capital differences. Evidence is also found for the existence of duality in the Israeli labor market.     

RACE AND EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM NBA COACHES

We study the impact of management diversity on employment outcomes using data on NBA head coaches that includes information on the race of each coach and his supervisor. We find that a supervisor is more likely to hire a coach of his own race. We also find that black coaches are less likely to be rehired to a second job within three years than their white counterparts, and that a head coach's race affects the quality of the opportunities he is offered. These findings are stronger for first-time coaches than experienced coaches, suggesting that observable information on performance mitigates bias. (JEL J0, J4, J7)     

BETWEEN SCYLLA AND CHARYBDIS: INCOME DISTRIBUTION,CONSUMER CREDIT,AND BUSINESS CYCLES

We introduce a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous households and an aggregate banking sector in order to analyze the impact of rising income inequality under different credit scenarios. Growing inequality produces debt‐led consumption boom dynamics when the banking sector is characterized by a lower capital requirement and a higher willingness to lend. Instead, when inequality rises but the banking sector is highly regulated, aggregate demand and output fall. Our results also yield new insights on the appropriate fiscal policy reaction to stabilize the economy: acting on the progressivity of the tax system seems more effective than a proactive countercyclical fiscal policy. (JEL C63, D31, E62, G01)     

ATTRIBUTION ERROR IN ECONOMIC VOTING: EVIDENCE FROM TRADE SHOCKS

This article exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990 to 2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust the incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home‐grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters—all conditions that have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problems—do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth. (JEL E3, E6)     

BUDGET COMMITTEE AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFER: EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH KOREA

This paper revisits the claim that members of legislative committees direct more earmark spending to their constituents. In South Korea's legislature, a national law regulating the budget committee provides an unusual source of exogenous variation in membership: members of the committee are rotated each year owing to 1-year term limits. Using data from 226 local governments, and both within-district and within-member variations in membership, we find that districts represented by a budget committee member secure roughly 3% more subsidies than those represented by a nonmember. (JEL D72, D78, H70)     

EFFECTS OF CARBON REDUCTION LABELS: EVIDENCE FROM SCANNER DATA

We investigate the effects of carbon reduction labels using a detailed scanner data set. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy, we find that having a carbon label has no impact on detergent prices or demand. We also investigate possible heterogeneous effects of carbon labels using the synthetic control method. We find no evidence to indicate that the prices for the counterfactual detergents without the label would have been any different from the prices of the carbon‐labeled detergents. We investigate the reasons for these results and conclude that the specific design of the carbon label is responsible for its lack of success. (JEL D12, D83, L15, Q54)     

THE EFFECTS OF EDUCATION ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This study investigates the impact of women's education on fertility. For identification, we use the 1968 compulsory education law change in Taiwan, which generated a regression discontinuity design (RDD) setting. We use the whole population of women from the 1980 and 2010 Population Censuses. Results of our RDD estimation using the exact date of birth suggest that the law change was effective in boosting women's education, but it did not have any impact on fertility. This is in stark contrast to most previous studies using only the birth year as the running variable or using it to construct instruments, which find that women's education depresses fertility. This study demonstrates that using a discrete running variable in RDD may generate a false discontinuity for an otherwise continuous regression function. (JEL J13, C21, I2)     

IQ IN THE PRODUCTION FUNCTION: EVIDENCE FROM IMMIGRANT EARNINGS

We show that a country’s average IQ score is a useful predictor of the wages that immigrants from that country earn in the United States, whether or not one adjusts for immigrant education. Just as in numerous microeconomic studies, 1 IQ point predicts 1% higher wages, suggesting that IQ tests capture an important difference in cross‐country worker productivity. In a cross‐country development accounting exercise, about one‐sixth of the global inequality in log income can be explained by the effect of large, persistent differences in national average IQ on the private marginal product of labor. This suggests that cognitive skills matter more for groups than for individuals. (JEL J24, J61, O47)