THE EFFECTS OF ASSET PURCHASES AND NORMALIZATION OF U.S. MONETARY POLICY

This paper examines changes in the effects of unconventional monetary policies in the United States. To this end, we estimate a Markov-switching VAR model with absorbing regimes to capture possible structural changes. Our results detect regime changes around the beginning of 2011 and the middle of 2013. Before 2011, the U.S. large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) had relatively large impacts on the real economy and prices, but after the middle of 2013, their effects were weaker and less-persistent. In addition, after the middle of 2013, which includes the monetary policy normalization period, the asset purchase (or balance sheet) shocks had slightly weaker effects than during the early stage of the LSAPs but stronger effects than during the late stage of the LSAPs, while interest rate shocks had insignificant effects on the real economy and prices. Finally, our results suggest that the positive responses of durables and capital goods expenditures to interest rate shocks weakened the negative impacts of interest rate hikes after the middle of 2013 including the period of monetary policy normalization. (JEL C32, E21, E52)     

FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

This paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule, which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates. Whereas most studies use quasi‐linear models that disregard the expectational effects of hitting the ZLB, we show how the effectiveness of forward guidance nonlinearly depends on the state of the economy, the speed of the recovery, the degree of uncertainty, the policy shock size, and the forward guidance horizon when households account for the ZLB. (JEL E43, E58, E61)     

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

This article provides a quantitative assessment of the role of financial frictions in the choice of exchange rate regimes. I use a two‐country model with sticky prices to compare different exchange rate arrangements. I simulate the model without and with borrowing constraints on investment, under monetary policy and technology shocks. I find that the stabilization properties of floating exchange rate regimes in face of foreign shocks are enhanced relative to fixed exchange rate in presence of credit frictions. In presence of symmetric and correlated shock, fixed exchange rates regimes can perform better than floating. This analysis can have important policy implications for accession countries joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II system and with high degrees of credit frictions. (JEL E3, E42, E44, E52, F41)     

IDENTIFYING THE ROLE OF RISK SHOCKS IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE USING STOCK PRICE DATA

I analyze the sources of U.S. business cycle fluctuations in an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with a rich set of nominal and real rigidities and various exogenous disturbances. The model includes a shock to the expected risk‐premium, which introduces a time‐varying wedge between the policy rate set by the central bank and the cost‐of‐capital of firms. In the aggregate data, most U.S. corporations finance their investment using internal funds, and stock prices reveal the opportunity cost of this type of financing. I therefore use corporate market value and dividend data in the Bayesian estimation of the model to identify risk shocks. Variance decomposition exercises show that these shocks account for a substantial part of the variation in the stock market, as well as the variation in output and investment, especially at short forecast horizons. The variation of these variables at longer forecast horizons are mainly captured by shocks to investment‐specific technological change. Historical decomposition points to the important role played by risk shocks in the run up of stock prices and output in the late 90s, and in the reversal of these variables in the early 2000s and during the recent recession. (JEL E32, E44)     

CAN MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCE LONG‐TERM INTEREST RATES? IT DEPENDS

Can monetary policy influence long‐term interest rates? Studies that have tackled this question using vector autoregressions (VARs) generally find that monetary policy's influence on long‐term interest rates is small and often statistically insignificant. Other studies, however, using a single‐equation approach, have found a robust relationship. Our study sheds new light on this question by estimating the effect of monetary policy shocks on long‐term interest rates in a VAR with long‐run monetary neutrality restrictions. We find that U.S. monetary policy can strongly influence long‐term interest rates, but only when the Federal Reserve has inflation‐fighting credibility and is able to firmly anchor inflationary expectations. (JEL E43, E51, E52)     

The Macro Content of PRSPs: Assessing the Need for a More Flexible Macroeconomic Policy Framework

This article analyses the content of 15 Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers from a growth and poverty reduction perspective. Contrary to new trends in developed and middle‐income countries, their policy frameworks lack the necessary flexibility to deal with external shocks and address macroeconomic volatility appropriately. Their fiscal and monetary policies are too narrowly focused on fiscal balance and price stability and consequently pay too little attention to economic fluctuations arising from external shocks, which have major effects on poverty and growth. To address these issues, the article proposes a set of policy measures, including avoidance of excessively tight inflation and fiscal targets (with provisions for fluctuations in commodity prices), more room for countercyclical policy and the adoption of permanent safety nets.     

Commodity Price Volatility,Vulnerability and Development

This article examines the meaning and consequences of the developing countries’ vulnerability to the volatility of commodity prices. It first considers how to define and measure a country’s shocks and exposure arising from commodity price volatility in order to identify structural as distinct from policy vulnerability. The main channels through which price vulnerability influences economic growth are then presented. Finally, the policy implications for development aid, its allocation and design, are outlined. It is found that, while structural vulnerability is bad for growth, a policy of openness contributes to resilience. With the right rules, aid could play an important growth‐enhancing and poverty‐reducing role if allocated at least partly on the basis of vulnerability.     

THE SWINGS OF U.S. INFLATION AND THE GIBSON PARADOX

In recent business cycles, U.S. inflation has experienced a reduction of volatility and a severe weakening in the correlation to the nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). We examine these facts in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money. Our findings point at a flatter New Keynesian Phillips Curve (higher price stickiness) and a lower persistence of markup shocks as the main explanatory factors. In addition, a higher interest‐rate elasticity of money demand, an increasing role of demand‐side shocks, and a less systematic behavior of Fed's monetary policy also account for the recent patterns of U.S. inflation dynamics. (JEL E32, E47)     

LIMITED ASSET MARKET PARTICIPATION AND THE EURO AREA CRISIS: AN EMPIRICAL DSGE MODEL

We estimate a medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Euro area with limited asset market participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that in the recent European Monetary Union years LAMP is particularly sizable (39% during 1993–2012) and important to understand business cycle features. The Bayes factor and the forecasting performance show that the LAMP model is preferred to its representative household counterpart. In the representative agent model the risk premium shock is the main driver of output volatility in order to match consumption correlation with output. In the LAMP model this role is played by the investment‐specific shock, because non‐Ricardian households introduce a Keynesian multiplier effect and raise the correlation between consumption and investments. We also detect the contractionary role of monetary policy shocks during the post‐2007 years. In this period consumption of non‐Ricardian households fell dramatically, but this outcome might have been avoided by a more aggressive policy stance. (JEL C11, C13, C32, E21, E32, E37)     

LIQUIDITY RISK AND TIME‐VARYING CORRELATION BETWEEN EQUITY AND CURRENCY RETURNS

Using the data of 20 major Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries over time, this article documents new evidence on real equity and real currency prices: higher real returns in the home equity market relative to its foreign counterparts are generally associated with real home currency depreciation at monthly frequency, but this negative correlation breaks down or even reverses during times of relatively higher aggregate economic uncertainty or volatility. This article also argues that a long‐run risks‐type model with time‐varying liquidity risk in stock markets can provide one plausible explanation for the time‐varying correlation structure. (JEL E43, F31, G12, G15)     

DID THE EURO FOSTER ONLINE PRICE COMPETITION? EVIDENCE FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PRICE COMPARISON SITE

We study the impact of the Euro on prices charged by online retailers within the European Union. Our data span the period before and after the Euro was introduced, cover a variety of products, and include countries inside and outside of the Eurozone. After controlling for cost, demand, and market structure effects, we show that the pure Euro changeover effect is to raise average prices in the Eurozone by 3 % and average minimum prices by 7%. Finally, we develop a model of online pricing in the context of currency unions and show that these price patterns are broadly consistent with those of clearinghouse models. (JEL D400, D830, F150, L130, M370 )     

Policies for Recruiting Talented Professionals from the Diaspora: India and China Compared

Despite the continuous asymmetrical power relations between the Global North and South, the “global race for talent” is no longer a privilege enjoyed only by developed countries. Comparative analysis of policy content and effectiveness has attracted increasing interest. The examination of policy initiatives resulting in return migration of highly‐skilled migrants from the Global North to the Global South, however, remains inadequate. In this article, we provide a comparative analysis of policies targeting high‐level Chinese and Indian professionals including full‐time returnees. Two key differences in policy instruments and outcomes in the two countries are identified and they have implications for migration policies in other countries in the Global South and North.     

The Impact of Economic Shocks on Quality of Life and Social Capital in Small Towns*

Abstract Economic shocks are sudden events causing a significant impact on the local economy. Disaster community literature predicts that community outcomes from shocks will depend on the kind of shock. Consensus crisis shocks will be followed by increases in social capital and quality of life. Corrosive community shocks will result in declines in these factors. Using longitudinal data from small towns, we find that shocks are not associated with declines in quality of life or social capital, however, certain kinds of shocks are followed by increases. The strength of shocks and the net cumulative effects of multiple shocks are related to social capital and quality of life. This analysis advances conceptualizations by unpacking shock events and suggesting that strength and effect of multiple shocks are as important as shock type.     

CONSUMPTION EXTERNALITIES AND MONETARY POLICY WITH LIMITED ASSET MARKET PARTICIPATION

This article explores the interaction between consumption externalities and limited asset market participation (LAMP) in the standard New‐Keynesian model. We assess the performance of simple Taylor‐type interest rate rules with respect to (a) equilibrium determinacy, (b) the model's ability to simultaneously generate output and inflation volatility similar to the pre‐Volcker era, and (c) the model's response to a technology shock. We find that when individual preferences are affected by average household consumption (Aggregate Consumption Externality), stronger externalities increase the range of LAMP for which multiple equilibria arise even if the policy rule satisfies the Taylor principle. The interaction of LAMP and externalities can generate vast inflation/output relative volatility in line with the one observed in the data in the 1970s. According to our analysis, consumption externalities also affect the responses of endogenous variables to total factor productivity shocks. (JEL E4, E5)     

Does Asymmetry of International Shocks Matter for the U.S. Business Cycle?

This article proposes and investigates the asymmetry hypothesis, which predicts that an international asymmetric shock tends to have a stronger and longer effect on the U.S. business cycle than a symmetric shock. The hypothesis finds empirical support in the impulse responses of U.S. output and inflation to symmetric and asymmetric shocks; those responses are estimated in a four-variable structural vector autoregression. The hypothesis also finds support in stylized facts: The longest U.S. expansions have tended to occur when the rest of the world was growing below potential.     

The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach

Using a co-integrated VAR model, this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of oil price and interest rate shocks on the Russian economy for the period 1995:Q1-2008:Q2. The co-integration analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.8%, suggesting an increase four times that reported by Rautava (2002), in the long run. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis suggests that the impacts of the shock on inflation and real GDP are positive over the next eight quarters (short run), whereas the tightening of monetary policy through interest rate channel is immediately associated with a decline in inflation as predicted by theory, but with an increase in real GDP over the preceding quarters.      

Coal demand,market forces,and U.S. coal mine closures

Economic transitions have the potential to displace workers and cause social unrest. Coal mine closures and the resulting employment losses in rural areas have become salient issues. Using data on coal mine and power plant operation, we model closure as a function of expected profits, which allows us to compare the effects on mine closure of specific demand and supply shocks to expected mine profits. Increasing costs of production have had a large impact on closures, but lower natural gas prices and lower electricity demand have played more recently important roles.     

MONETARY POLICY REGIME SHIFTS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM TIME‐VARYING INTEREST RATE RULES

We estimate forward‐looking interest rate rules for five large Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies, allowing for time variation in the responses to macroeconomic conditions and in the variance of the policy rate. Conventional constant parameter reaction functions likely blur the impact of (1) model uncertainty, (2) conflicting objectives, (3) shifting preferences, and (4) nonlinearities of policymakers' choices. We find that monetary policies followed by the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy are best summarized by feedback rules that allow for time variation in their parameters. Estimates point to sizeable differences in the actual conduct of monetary policies even in countries now belonging to the European Monetary Union. Moreover, our time‐varying parameter specification outperforms the conventional Taylor rule and generalized method of moment–based estimates of reaction functions in tracking the actual Fed funds rate. (JEL E52, E58, E60)     

Shifting Imperial Strategies in Contemporary Latin America: The U.S. Empire and Venezuela under Hugo Chávez

Some scholars have shown how the U.S. has deployed several traditional, imperial strategies to maintain global power, including military interventions, support for proxy governments, economic coercion, and the exercise of hegemony. In many countries, though, these strategies cannot effectively work. Some countries have elected leaders that defy U.S. influence, and, in middle‐income countries, the U.S. cannot use economic coercion. The U.S. also cannot militarily invade all countries that possess anti‐American governments. How, then, does the U.S. aim to confront and control anti‐American governments in the contemporary world? I examine U.S. foreign policy towards Venezuela under Hugo Chávez, who recurrently challenged U.S. global power during his time in office. Through interviews with U.S. state elites, who developed policy towards Venezuela, and through analysis of U.S. diplomatic cables, I show how the U.S. has moved away from traditional, imperial modalities and towards new imperial techniques aimed at frustrating political processes within particular countries, as well as containing their global influence. These techniques include pressuring the federal judiciary, utilizing state agencies to fund and support opposition political parties and NGOs, seeking to terminate particular pieces of legislation, and eliminating eligibility for global leadership positions. These efforts do not immediately aim to displace existing governments, but, in the least, they aim to frustrate the domestic efforts of particular governments, and ultimately cultivate conditions favorable for the political opposition to eventually attain political power.