GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES,STRATEGIC SAVINGS,AND THE DOT‐COM BOOM AND BUST

Data from the dot‐com boom‐bust episode suggest that growth opportunities played an important role in explaining firms' financing strategy during this understudied episode. The low leverage of this sector was mainly driven by high growth firms which increased their leverage following the crash despite suffering a much larger fall in their market value. We present a parsimonious dynamic firm financing model where growth opportunities alone can generate the heterogeneous patterns in the financing and performance between high and low growth information technology firms prior to and following the market crash. The calibrated model also sheds light on the role played by monetary policy during that episode. (JEL G32, E22, E5)     

THE CREDIT‐CHANNEL TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND THE NONLINEAR GROWTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND TAXES

With the credit‐channel effect driven by the central bank's open market operations, this paper's model easily gives rise to the nonlinear inflation‐growth nexus, which is evidenced by a number of cross‐country empirical studies. The threshold level of the inflation rate is found to be lower when tax rates are higher. The presence of the credit‐channel effect also provides the rationale for setting positive (and smaller than 1) tax rates on consumption, labor income, and capital income. The optimal tax rates rise as the inflation target declines. Under a fiscal policy rule where labor and capital income taxes move proportionally to each other, the optimal capital income tax rate could be higher than the optimal labor income tax rate. Under a sufficiently large central bank balance sheet, the credit‐channel effect will be so weak that inflation and all kinds of taxes are growth and welfare repressing. This provides a rationale for central banks that have implemented quantitative easing policies to shrink their balance sheets. (JEL E58, E62, O42)     

MONETARY POLICY AND ANTI‐CYCLICAL BANK CAPITAL REGULATION

The financial crisis of 2008–2009 revived attention given to booms and busts in bank credit, and their effects on real activity. This interest sparked two different strands of research in macro. The first one focuses on monetary policy in the context of financial frictions. The second studies capital regulation in banking. To the best of our knowledge, so far these two topics have mostly been studied in isolation from each other. Thus, we still lack an understanding of how monetary policy and bank capital regulation interact in the presence of financial fragility. This paper aims to contribute to furthering this understanding. Specifically, we ask how the monetary policy rule should look like in the presence of cyclical capital requirements. We extend the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with bank capital in Aliaga‐Díaz and Olivero by introducing price rigidities in the spirit of the New‐Keynesian literature. We find that: First, anti‐cyclical requirements have important stabilization properties relative to the case of constant requirements. This is true for all types of fluctuations that we study, which include those caused by productivity, preference, fiscal, monetary, and financial shocks. Second, output and consumption volatilities present in the no regulation economy can be recovered with anti‐cyclical requirements as long as the policy rate responds only slightly to credit spreads. Third, monetary policy rules that respond to credit conditions also perform better in terms of welfare. (JEL E32, E44)     

R&D AND CREDIT RATIONING IN SMEs

We study the effects of credit rationing on research and development (R&D) investment using survey and accounting data on a large representative sample of manufacturing small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). Our econometric model accounts for the endogeneity of our credit rationing indicator and employs an innovative theory‐based identification strategy. We find that credit rationing has a significantly negative effect on both the probability to set up R&D activities and on the level of R&D spending (conditioned on the R&D decision), but the overall estimated reduction in R&D spending is largely to be associated with the first effect. (JEL G21, D82, O32, C35)     

勾建小微企业信用融资系统，疏通银企融资渠道

当前,小微企业难以从商业银行获得贷款支持,这严重制约了小微企业的发展。因此,通过研究构建小微企业信用融资系统,疏通小微企业与商业银行的对接渠道,解决小微企业融资难的问题;通过小微企业、贷款机构、政府园区、金融管理部门网络互联,共同打造信用融资公共平台,以解决小微企业融资难问题的具体实现路径。     

以融资租赁为突破口,推动中国(上海)自贸试验区跨境资产证券化

当前,上海自贸区在证券化产品二级市场建设、监管协调,外汇、法律与税务制度建设方面存在不足。上海自贸区应以融资租赁为突破口,坚持"先企业资产证券化、后信贷资产证券化","审慎选择、适度扩大"基础资产范围;坚持"先跨境外币资产证券化、后跨境人民币资产证券化",稳步推动人民币国际化;完善监管政策,强化监管协同;完善税收制度,简化审批流程,积极推进区内利率市场化改革,加速境内资本市场对外开放,为区内跨境资产证券化试点营造良好的市场环境。     

CONSUMER CREDIT,LIQUIDITY, AND THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY

That the lending channel is alive and well for consumer lending is at first glance a compelling notion given the growth in consumer credit. However, this paper demonstrates with disaggregated monthly consumer credit data that the consumer loan‐supply effect has diminished over time. Contrary to assumptions motivating the lending channel, after the mid‐1980s, households are not constrained in accessing nonrevolving or revolving bank loans in response to a monetary shock. The findings of this paper have important implications for research on the monetary transmission mechanism beyond the lending channel and for business cycle research in general. (JEL E44, E50, E60, C32)     

ASSET PRICE BUBBLES AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

We introduce borrowing constraints into a two‐sector Schumpeterian growth model and examine the impact of asset price bubbles on innovation. In this environment, rational bubbles arise when the intermediate good producing R&D sector is faced with adverse productivity shocks. Importantly, these bubbles help alleviate credit constraints and facilitate innovation in the stagnant economy. On the policy front, we make a case for debt financed credit to the R&D sector. Further, we establish that a constant credit growth rule (akin to the Friedman rule) outperforms the often prescribed counter‐cyclical “lean against the wind” credit policy. (JEL E32, E44, O40)     

THE PROTESTANT FISCAL ETHIC: RELIGIOUS CONFESSION AND EURO SKEPTICISM IN GERMANY

During the European sovereign debt crisis, most countries that ran into fiscal trouble had Catholic majorities, whereas countries with Protestant majorities were able to avoid fiscal problems. We find that Christian‐conservative members of the German parliament from constituencies with higher shares of Protestants were more likely to vote against a third bailout for Greece. Survey data show that views on the euro differ between German Protestants and non‐Protestants at the individual level, too. Among Protestants, concerns about the euro have, compared to non‐Protestants, increased during the crisis. We show that this increase in concern is linked to a reduction of Protestants' subjective well‐being. We use the timing of survey interviews and news events in 2011 to account for the endogeneity of euro concerns. Emphasis on moral hazard concerns in Protestant theology may, thus, still shape economic preferences. (JEL D72, E00, I31, Z12)     

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK FOOTPRINTS ON INFLATION FORECAST UNCERTAINTY

The finding of the paper shows the relative effectiveness of the “one size fits all” policy of the European Central Bank. The paper provides strong evidence in favor of this by testing whether the monetary policy effects (footprints) found in inflation uncertainty converge to a common level. These footprints are measured as the fraction of the estimated policy‐induced reduction in this uncertainty. The testing was conducted by applying a bootstrap‐type test in a regression of the rate of growth of these fractions on their initial values, computed for 16 euro area countries. (JEL C33, E52, E58)     

TEMPTATION‐DRIVEN BEHAVIOR AND TAXATION: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN A LIFE‐CYCLE MODEL

This paper examines the impact of labor and capital income taxes in a stochastic overlapping generations (OLG) economy where agents face borrowing constraints and their behavior is temptation driven. We quantitatively establish that the existence of temptation in preferences may function as an opposing mechanism to modeling choices, such as liquidity constraints, life‐cycle structure, and idiosyncratic earnings risks, that are critical in delivering a positive capital income tax rate. We show that a sufficiently large measure of individuals having self‐control preferences, or alternatively, a sufficiently high cost of exercising self‐control, puts downward pressure on the optimal capital income tax rate. (JEL E21, E62, H55)     

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

This article provides a quantitative assessment of the role of financial frictions in the choice of exchange rate regimes. I use a two‐country model with sticky prices to compare different exchange rate arrangements. I simulate the model without and with borrowing constraints on investment, under monetary policy and technology shocks. I find that the stabilization properties of floating exchange rate regimes in face of foreign shocks are enhanced relative to fixed exchange rate in presence of credit frictions. In presence of symmetric and correlated shock, fixed exchange rates regimes can perform better than floating. This analysis can have important policy implications for accession countries joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II system and with high degrees of credit frictions. (JEL E3, E42, E44, E52, F41)     

THE CYCLICALITY OF PRICE‐COST MARGINS IN BANKING: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ITS DETERMINANTS

We study the determinants of the cyclical behavior of banks' price‐cost margins in the United States banking sector, using time series quarterly data for the period 1979–2005. We contribute to the literature by building an empirical model of the countercyclical behavior of these margins first documented by Aliaga‐Díaz and Olivero (2010a) . Doing so we are able to explore potential explanations for this behavior, and to show that margins are consistently countercyclical, even after controlling for the effects of credit risk and monetary policy. As a mechanism for the propagation of aggregate shocks, the countercyclical nature of margins in banking can provide additional support to stabilization policy. (JEL E32, E44, G21)     

THE WELFARE EFFECT OF ACCESS TO CREDIT

I present a model in which credit and outside money can be used as means of payment in order to analyze how access to credit affects welfare when credit markets feature limited participation. Allowing more agents to use credit has an ambiguous effect on welfare because it may make consumption‐risk sharing more inefficient. I calibrate the model using U.S. data on credit‐card use and show that the increase in access to credit from 1990 to the near present has had a slightly negative impact on welfare. (JEL E51, E41)     

构建中小企业虚拟融资平台研究

在信贷市场中,信息不对称严重地制约着中小企业的融资供给,信贷成本高企和信贷额度偏低引起的风险管理机制与激励机制不相容降低了银行对中小企业信贷的积极性。随着大数据时代的到来和互联网金融的蓬勃发展,能够真实反映企业经营状况的包括信息流、物流、资金流等在内的一系列信息应得到有效利用。构建中小企业虚拟融资平台模式,能够突破传统信贷对企业经营结果的审查定性,而转移到对企业经营过程的监督定性上,有利于彻底解决中小企业融资难问题。在一定程度上,通过对企业历史经营数据和现时经营信息的搜集与量化定性,不仅能够扭转资金供求双方间的信息不对称,也能通过企业沉淀信息降低银行间信息搜集成本。     

INFLATION DYNAMICS AND THE OUTPUT‐INFLATION TRADE‐OFF: INTERNATIONAL PANEL DATA EVIDENCE

We explore the impact of inflation and its variability on the output‐inflation trade‐off using a single‐step approach in a panel data context. Previous empirical approaches focus on either cross‐country or country‐by‐country time‐series analyses. We employ a dynamic heterogeneous panel specification using an all‐encompassing estimation framework accounting for parameter heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence, dynamics, and nonstationarity. Our sample covers 60 countries from 1970 to 2010. While inflation variability reduces the trade‐off for specific periods and country groups, an unambiguous and more pronounced negative relation emerges between the inflation rate and the trade‐off. The findings are consistent with the New Keynesian view. (JEL E31, E12, C23)     

INFORMATION RIGIDITIES,INFLATION PERCEPTIONS,AND THE MEDIA: LESSONS FROM THE EURO CASH CHANGEOVER

The objective of theoretical models of information rigidities is to capture the fact that people are constrained in their ability to acquire and process all available information. Given that most people obtain their information about the economy from the media, press coverage of the economy may exert an influence on peoples' attitudes. This paper tests for this influence by examining consumers' inflation perceptions in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover, which serves as a natural experiment. Using a new data set, that quantifies the intensity and tone of media reports, we document that media reporting has had a statistically significant and economically meaningful impact on inflation perceptions and contributed to their sharp rise in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover and to the divergence between inflation perceptions and actual inflation rates. (JEL E53, D83)     

Language and (in)securitization: Observations from educational research and practice in conflict‐affected contexts

Spurred in part by violent conflict and natural disaster, the surge in global migration calls for renewed attention to the central role of language in everyday (in)securitization. In this brief response, I draw on my work in the Middle East and among Arabic‐speaking populations in the United States to offer some illustration of the instantiation of global, macro‐processes of (in)securitization and surveillance in the everyday micro‐practices of schooling—issues that are possible to “see” when language policy is the site of inquiry. In centring everyday communicative practice, sociolinguistics provides a distinctive entry point for examining the lived experience of this (in)securitization, by illuminating pervasive and mundane micro‐processes within the “extraordinary” and routinized social interactions of everyday schooling.     

MILITARY SPENDING AND THE GROWTH‐MAXIMIZING ALLOCATION OF PUBLIC CAPITAL: A CROSS‐COUNTRY EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

In this paper we present an endogenous growth model to analyze the growth maximizing allocation of public investment among N different types of public capital. Using this general model of public capital formation, we analyze the stability of the long‐run equilibrium and we derive the growth‐maximizing values of the shares of public investment allocated to the different types of public capital, as well as the growth‐maximizing tax rate (amount of total public investment as a share of GDP). Then we proceed with an empirical investigation of the theoretical implication of the model that both the effects of the shares of public investment and the tax rate on the long‐run growth rate are non‐linear, following an inverse U‐shaped pattern. Using data of public investment in infrastructure and military capital formation, we derive empirical estimations that confirm the theoretical implications of the model. (JEL E62, H56, O40).     

MULTIFACETED AID FOR LOW‐INCOME STUDENTS AND COLLEGE OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH CAROLINA

We study the evolution of a campus‐based aid program for low‐income students that began with grant‐heavy financial aid and later added a suite of nonfinancial supports. We find little to no evidence that program eligibility during the early years (2004–2006), in which students received additional institutional grant aid and few nonfinancial supports, improved postsecondary progress, performance, or completion. In contrast, program‐eligible students in more recent cohorts (2007–2010), when the program supplemented grant‐heavy aid with an array of nonfinancial supports, were more likely to meet credit accumulation benchmarks toward timely graduation and earned higher grade point averages than their barely ineligible counterparts. (JEL I21, I23, I24, J08)