Combining Administrative and Survey Data to Derive Small‐area Estimates Using Loglinear Modelling

Abstract. Structure‐preserving estimation (SPREE) is currently used to derive small‐area estimates of unemployment in New Zealand using data from the Household Labour Force Survey and the Ministry of Social Development. Noble et al. (Journal of Official Statistics 18: 45–60, 2002) advocate loglinear modelling as a major improvement and substitute for SPREE. The algorithm, however, is difficult to implement in SAS, the common statistical platform for the public sector, because of three major problems: (1) their way of writing the design matrix is incompatible with the ‘Proc Genmod’ procedure in SAS; (2) an important step in estimating cell frequencies from survey margins is unclear in the modelling procedure; and (3) the user has to manually write the design matrix of the model. This paper resolves these problems, provides novel SAS programs for implementing the approach, and discusses the implications.     

Relocation or dislocation?—A planned approach to location

The commercial success, or indeed the survival, of an enterprise depends on forward thinking. Whether planners use sophisticated planning and modelling techniques or simply rely on hunches the objective of their planning is to project the economic environment, the market for goods and services, technological developments, etc. It is a fact, however, that relatively few enterprises, except those engaged in physical distribution, appreciate the often critical strategic importance of the location of their operations. The author deals with the factors involved in any decision to relocate.     

Models,methods and tools for interorganizational logistics operations

Enterprise modelling is today one of the key techniques to improve the performances of an enterprise. This paper first defines enterprise modelling techniques as compared to BPR techniques. Then the latest developments in GRAI methodology are presented. Finally, examples of industrial applications are presented for three methods: GIM (GRAI Integrated Method) for re-engineering, GIMSOFT for the choice of an ERP software package and ECOGRAI for the design and implementation of performance indicator system.     

Automated simulation modelling and analysis for manufacturing systems

Simulation is extensively used as a basis for the analysis and design of manufacturing systems. It has been steadily increasing in popularity due to the simplicity and ease of model understanding even by the non-simulationist. The popularity of simulation is also due to recent developments of easy-to-use simulation software. Simulation generators represent a significant trend in this direction. More recent developments include simulation expert systems both from the viewpoint of modelling and also statistical output analysis. The work that has been explained herewith is based on one such simulation generator that has been developed at the Center for Manufacturing Productivity and Technology Transfer at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. This system, RENSAM (RENssclaer Simulator for Automated Manufacturing) is an adaptive simulation generator and has an underlying structure that represents a FMS. The research that has been accomplished is the result of the constant efforts that are being undertaken to make RENSAM a complete decision making tool. In order to achieve what is envisioned, output analysis, optimization and sensitivity analysis routines have been added to the generic simulation and intelligent front end (IFE), The output analysis routine determines the experimental conditions under which the simulation is executed. The optimization routine searches for the optimal values for the parameters of interest and then sensitivity analysis is used to examine the relationship among various parameters. The sensitivity analysis that is presented has been developed taking into account various methodologies in this field.     

A network-based approach to integrated supply chain design

The inherent complexity of supply chains, combined with their economic importance, has prompted research in supply chain management. While there has been a significant amount of work reported in modelling supply chains, the effectiveness of these models in addressing the complex area of supply chain management is questionable. What is giving added urgency to the need for research in this area are the recent developments in communications that offer the promise of connecting suppliers, assemblers and customers in a seamless network of information that can form integrated supply chain management. This paper aims to address the deficiency in modelling by proposing a methodology that models the integrated supply chain as an abstracted network, called a Trans-Net. The Trans-Net approach offers three main potential advantages. First, the multiple participants in a supply chain can be modelled without undue complexity. Second, it is an approach that allows users to examine the interactions between different considerations so that important attributes such as cost and lead-time can be readily calculated and bottleneck areas identified. Third, it applies a mathematical formalism to the problem, with the potential of being relatively straightforward to computerize.     

Parametric Design in Urbanism: A Critical Reflection

Parametric modelling run by the explicitly defined algorithms generating synchronically auditable dynamic forms and patterns, has become a prominent method especially in architecture. Though the use of parametric models has got wider in urban design, the critical reflection on the actual and possible application of the method in urbanism has fallen limited so far. The paper tends to relate parametric design with the contemporary understanding of urbanism with regards to the idea of design control in the the context of complexity. From this perspective, the actual performance of the model application in urban context is discussed with the renowned project of Kartal-Pendik Masterplan (Zaha Hadid Architects) in Istanbul, Turkey.     

Making Competitive Cities in the Light of the Meta-SWOT Tool: A Case Study of Tehran,Iran

ABSTRACT

While there is a growing body of scholarship on regional competitiveness, little attention has been paid to the planning methods that can pursue this objective. Public planners are mainly relying on conventional methods that have come under increasing criticism. This study aims to introduce Meta-SWOT as a novel planning tool in urban and regional studies. Meta-SWOT provides competitive and realistic strategies for planners. It systematically tries to present strategies rooted in internal resources and capabilities while acknowledging the challenges posed by the external environment. Nevertheless, it has several limitations that should be considered when applying to urban and regional planning.     

The changing pattern of distribution

Over the last decade the domestic distribution function has changed its internal and external appearance in order to meet the needs of the market, and enable companies to remain competitive in the market place.The object of this paper is threefold: firstly, to define what changes have occurred within the domestic distribution system; secondly, to identify the reasons for these changes; and thirdly, to forecast future developments within the marketing channel structure.Recently there have been considerable improvements in productivity within the distribution function leading to both absolute cost reductions and increases in customer service levels. Four main factors are considered to have influenced these changes. Firstly, improved management awareness in the role of the distribution functions. Secondly, a significant number of technical developments affecting the operating activities within the distribution function. Thirdly, structural change within the channel and co-operation between the independent channel memebers. Finally, the external channel environment has changed considerably as a result of urban renewal programmes and increasing Government constraints.The methods by which management could achieve change with the distribution function are identified and an outline is given of the problems which may be encountered in the process.It is forecast that planning activities will play an important role in developing the distribution system to meet the market needs of the future.     

Risk Reduction of an Invasive Insect by Targeting Surveillance Efforts with the Assistance of a Phenology Model and International Maritime Shipping Routes and Schedules

Reducing the risk of introduction to North America of the invasive Asian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij and L. d. japonica [Motschulsky]) on international maritime vessels involves two tactics: (1) vessels that wish to arrive in Canada or the United States and have visited any Asian port that is subject to regulation during designated times must obtain a predeparture inspection certificate from an approved entity; and (2) vessels with a certificate may be subjected to an additional inspection upon arrival. A decision support tool is described here with which the allocation of inspection resources at North American ports can be partitioned among multiple vessels according to estimates of the potential onboard Asian gypsy moth population and estimates of the onboard larval emergence pattern. The decision support tool assumes that port inspection is uniformly imperfect at the Asian ports and that each visit to a regulated port has potential for the vessel to be contaminated with gypsy moth egg masses. The decision support tool uses a multigenerational phenology model to estimate the potential onboard population of egg masses by calculating the temporal intersection between the dates of port visits to regulated ports and the simulated oviposition pattern in each port. The phenological development of the onboard population is simulated each day of the vessel log until the vessel arrives at the port being protected from introduction. Multiple independent simulations are used to create a probability distribution of the size and timing of larval emergence.     

Task parallelism in distributed supply organizations: a case study in the shoe industry

This paper describes the application of the parallel integration evaluation model (PIEM) in an industrial case study. The PIEM model is based on modelling the interactions among supply network parties. It generates the parallel configuration of production and supply servers yielding the minimum total production and supply time/cost for the system, Φ. The design solution recommended by the model obeys the tradeoff that parallelism introduces into the networked supply operating system: while direct-production/supply time Π decreases, the overhead of interaction time among the networked parties, T, increases. The interaction time comprises two delay generating factors, limiting the implementation of massively parallel supply networks: the delay due to communication, negotiation, and coordination among the parties, K, and the congestion delay Γ at shared resources in the supply network. These two types of delay factors are positively correlated with the network's degree of parallelism, Ψ, and they affect inversely the total production supply and delivery time of the organization. The PIEM model has been applied to the case of a globally distributed shoe supply network. The resulting recommendations yielded significant savings of about 35% of the annual operating costs. Following the success of this case study, the model has been generalized and implemented as a supply network design optimization tool.     

Job insecurity and trust: Uncovering a mechanism linking job insecurity to well-being

Job insecurity has well-documented negative effects for individuals as well as organisations. However, the mechanisms by which job insecurity relates to its outcomes have received less research attention. The purpose of this study is to investigate trust in the organisation as a potential mechanism that may explain why job insecurity relates to two well-documented outcomes: decreased job satisfaction and lowered mental health. These hypotheses were tested in a Swedish longitudinal sample that consists of employees (longitudinal n?=?906) from three organisations, using structural equation modelling. Overall, the results showed support for our hypotheses. Our findings reveal an indirect effect of trust on job satisfaction, regardless of whether the previous levels of job satisfaction were controlled for. With regard to mental health, the indirect effect was only evident when previous levels of mental health were not controlled for. The results of this study contribute to our understanding about the intervening factors in the relationship between job insecurity and outcomes. Moreover, the results might be important for human resources departments and managers when there are indications that employees are worrying about the future of their jobs.     

Energy modelling: A new challenge for management science

The Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the subsequent price rises and production restrictions have given birth to a distinct branch within Management Science: energy modelling. This paper gives a critical and selective review on energy modelling, an industry which though thriving in an era of general economic anxiety, is showing signs of arrogant immaturity. After giving a historical background, the paper classifies energy models into three groups: open loop demand or supply models; energy closed loop models; energy-economy closed loop models. For each group the problem area is analysed and some illustrative examples are described. In the last sections, an attempt is made to sum up the experience that has been gained with energy modelling: the basic deficiencies, the impact of this activity on policy formulation and its position within Management Science. It is concluded that energy models, though very poor forecasting devices, can be very useful to policy makers as tools for analysis; energy model developers must convince potential model users and for that purpose they can benefit immensely from the 35-year-long experience accumulated by their colleagues in Management Science.     

Organising the business processes of a product servitised supply chain: a value perspective

This paper develops a structured method from the perspective of value to organise and optimise the business processes of a product servitised supply chain (PSSC). This method integrates the modelling tool of e³value with the associated value measurement, evaluation and analysis techniques. It enables visualisation, modelling and optimisation of the business processes of a PSSC. At the same time, the value co-creation and potential contribution to an organisation’s profitability can also be enhanced. The findings not only facilitate organisations that are attempting to adopt servitisation by helping avert any paradox, but also help a servitised organisation to identify the key business processes and clarify their influences to supply chain operations.     

A Specialized Inventory Problem in Banks: Optimizing Retail Sweeps

Deposits held at Federal Reserve Banks are an essential input to the business activity of most depository institutions in the United States. Managing these deposits is an important and complex inventory problem for two reasons. First, Federal Reserve regulations require that depository institutions hold certain amounts of such deposits at the Federal Reserve Banks to satisfy statutory reserve requirements against customers' transaction accounts (demand deposits and other checkable deposits). Second, some inventory of such deposits is essential for banks to operate one of their core lines of business: furnishing payment services to households and firms. Because the Federal Reserve does not pay interest on such deposits used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements, banks seek to minimize their inventory of such deposits. In 1994, the banking industry introduced a new inventory management tool for such deposits, the retail deposit sweep program, which avoids the statutory requirement by reclassifying transaction deposits as savings deposits. This is an interesting inventory problem for fungible items, where the conversion process is reversible. We examine two methods for operating such sweeps programs within the limits of Federal Reserve regulations, and we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model to implement one such method, the threshold method.     

Trajectories of effort-reward imbalance in Swedish workers: Differences in demographic and work-related factors and associations with health

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study was to identify trajectories of effort-reward imbalance (ERI), to examine these with respect to demographic (age, gender, socio-economic position) and work-related (employment contract, work hours, shift work, sector) factors, and to investigate associations with different health indicators (self-rated health, depressive symptoms, migraine, sickness absence). The study used four waves of data (N?=?6702), collected biennially within the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH). Using latent class growth modelling, we identified four trajectories: a stable low imbalance trajectory, which comprised 90% of all participants, and three change trajectories including a decreasing trajectory (4% of the participants), an inverted U-shaped trajectory and an increasing imbalance trajectory, both in 3% of the participants. Results indicate that a sizeable proportion of Swedish employees’ experience imbalance between efforts and rewards at work. The most favourable trajectory comprised relatively more men and was characterised by better work-related characteristics than the less favourable ERI trajectories. All change trajectories were dominated by women and employees in the public sector. Health developments followed ERI trajectories, such that less favourable trajectories associated with impaired health and more favourable trajectories associated with better health. Sickness absence increased among all ERI trajectories, most so for the decreasing and increasing ERI trajectory.     

Encouraging Environmental Accounting Worldwide: A Survey of Government Policies and Instruments

Government involvement is a critical factor for the corporate accountability for the environment. Environmental accounting is an effective tool for a company's greener management practice. It also reveals potential cost reduction and profit maximization opportunities, thus encourages environmentally and socially sound management and decision-making practice. This article exams the strengths and weaknesses of options available to governments to promote corporate environment accounting. Corporate environmental accounting is considered a strategic management tool for the improvement of corporate management and decision-making practices.In general, the policy instruments that used by government can be categorized into: (1) regulatory; (2) voluntary; (3) incentive based; (4) informational; and (5) cooperative instruments. These options are currently being used by various governmental agencies globally in the promotion of corporate environmental accounting. After the evaluation of various kinds of policy instruments, the author concludes that information-based, voluntary and cooperative policy instruments are most effective for promoting corporate environmental accounting practices. The common factor for these mechanisms is the flow of critical information.     

5 Public Administration and Organization Studies

Abstract

The study of public organizations has withered over time in mainstream organization studies research, as scholars in the field have migrated to business schools. This is so even though government organizations are an important part of the universe of organizations—the largest organizations in the world are agencies of the U.S. government. At the same time, the study of public administration, once in the mainstream of organization studies, has moved into a ghetto, separate and unequal. Centered in business schools, mainstream organization research became isomorphic to its environment—coming to focus on performance issues, which are what firms care about. Since separation, the dominant current in public administration has become isomorphic with its environment. In this case, however, this meant the field moved backward from the central reformist concern of its founders with improving government performance, and developed instead a focus on managing constraints (i.e., avoiding bad things, such as corruption or misuse of power, from occurring) in a public organization environment. Insufficient concern about performance among public administration scholars is particularly unfortunate because over the past 15 years, there has occurred a significant growth of interest among practitioners in improving government performance. The origins and consequences of these developments are discussed, and a research agenda for organization studies research that takes the public sector seriously is proposed.     

Recalibration of the Grunow–Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics

Successful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow–Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, including eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weighting factors, and (iii) adding and refining criteria. We created a series of alternative models to examine the changes on the parameter likelihood of unnatural outbreaks until we found a model that correctly identified all the unnatural outbreaks and natural ones. Finally, the recalibrated GFT was tested and validated with data from an unnatural and natural outbreak, respectively. A total of 238 models were tested. Through the removal of criteria, increasing or decreasing weighting factors of other criteria, adding a new criterion titled “special insights,” and setting a new threshold for likelihood, we increased the sensitivity of the GFT from 38% to 100%, and retained the specificity at 100% in detecting unnatural epidemics. Using test data from an unnatural and a natural outbreak, the recalibrated GFT correctly classified their etiology. The recalibrated GFT could be integrated into routine outbreak investigation by public health institutions and agencies responsible for biosecurity.     

Interactive LP models in management—An analogue approach

The history is traced over 10 years of a project directed towards extending the use of Linear Programme methods by managers and planners themselves. Both computational aspects as they affect the end user, and possible alternatives to digital computation, are discussed in the light of practical experience and of recently proposed criteria for mathematical modelling in a managerial environment. The operating principles of an LP-based electronic analogue system are described, along with some of its observed implications in terms of human behaviour. It is concluded that LP and related techniques have hardly begun to exploit their potential, both as a control medium and as a language of managerial communication; that the concept of direct optimisation is largely irrelevant and has formed a barrier against implementation; and that the field of application for LP models is far wider than can be adduced by rigorous analysis, or by working to the practical bounds of digital computation.