Large Deviations for Empirical Estimators of the Stationary Distribution of a Semi-Markov Process with Finite State Space

We prove the large deviation principle for empirical estimators of stationary distributions of semi-Markov processes with finite state space, irreducible embedded Markov chain, and finite mean sojourn time in each state. We consider on/off Gamma sojourn processes as an illustrative example, and, in particular, continuous time Markov chains with two states. In the second case, we compare the rate function in this article with the known rate function concerning another family of empirical estimators of the stationary distribution.     

Computational Algorithms for Moments of Accumulated Markov and Semi-Markov Rewards

Power moments for accumulated rewards defined on Markov and semi-Markov chains are studied. A model with mixed time-space termination of reward accumulation is considered for inhomogeneous in time rewards and Markov chains. Characterization of power moments as minimal solutions of recurrence system of linear equations, sufficient conditions for finiteness of these moments and upper bounds for them, expressed in terms of so-called test functions, are given. Backward recurrence algorithms for funding of power moments of accumulated rewards and various time-space truncation approximations reducing dimension of the corresponding recurrence relations are described.     

Rates of Convergence for a Bayesian Level Set Estimation

Abstract.  We are interested in estimating level sets using a Bayesian non-parametric approach, from an independent and identically distributed sample drawn from an unknown distribution. Under fairly general conditions on the prior, we provide an upper bound on the rate of convergence of the Bayesian level set estimate, via the rate at which the posterior distribution concentrates around the true level set. We then consider, as an application, the log-spline prior in the two-dimensional unit cube. Assuming that the true distribution belongs to a class of Hölder, we provide an upper bound on the rate of convergence of the Bayesian level set estimates. We compare our results with existing rates of convergence in the frequentist non-parametric literature: the Bayesian level set estimator proves to be competitive and is also easy to compute, which is of no small importance. A simulation study is given as an illustration.     

An EM and a Stochastic Version of the EM Algorithm for Nonparametric Hidden Semi-Markov Models

The Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) were introduced to overcome the constraint of a geometric sojourn time distribution for the different hidden states in the classical hidden Markov models. Several variations of HSMMs were proposed that model the sojourn times by a parametric or a nonparametric family of distributions. In this article, we concentrate our interest on the nonparametric case where the duration distributions are attached to transitions and not to states as in most of the published papers in HSMMs. Therefore, it is worth noticing that here we treat the underlying hidden semi-Markov chain in its general probabilistic structure. In that case, Barbu and Limnios (2008 Barbu , V. , Limnios , N. ( 2008 ). Semi-Markov Chains and Hidden Semi-Markov Models Toward Applications: Their Use in Reliability and DNA Analysis . New York : Springer . [Google Scholar]) proposed an Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to estimate the semi-Markov kernel and the emission probabilities that characterize the dynamics of the model. In this article, we consider an improved version of Barbu and Limnios' EM algorithm which is faster than the original one. Moreover, we propose a stochastic version of the EM algorithm that achieves comparable estimates with the EM algorithm in less execution time. Some numerical examples are provided which illustrate the efficient performance of the proposed algorithms.     

Bayesian Non-Parametric Estimation of Smooth Hazard Rates for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Abstract.  Hazard rate estimation is an alternative to density estimation for positive variables that is of interest when variables are times to event. In particular, it is here shown that hazard rate estimation is useful for seismic hazard assessment. This paper suggests a simple, but flexible, Bayesian method for non-parametric hazard rate estimation, based on building the prior hazard rate as the convolution mixture of a Gaussian kernel with an exponential jump-size compound Poisson process. Conditions are given for a compound Poisson process prior to be well-defined and to select smooth hazard rates, an elicitation procedure is devised to assign a constant prior expected hazard rate while controlling prior variability, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution is obtained. Finally, the suggested method is validated in a simulation study, and some Italian seismic event data are analysed.     

零息收益率曲线期限结构变化的主成分分析

文章认为运用主成分分析方法能极大地简化对利率曲线变化的分析,便于准确了解利率曲线结构变动的模式。同时运用主成分分析方法能为金融机构计算投资组合资产VaR提供切实可行的方法,为金融机构风险管理提供依据。     

中国国债利率期限结构实证研究

文章利用三次样条函数构造出上交所和深交所的国债利率期限结构,并通过对两市利率期限结构曲线进行比较与分析,得出这样的结论:中国国债利率期限结构虽然呈现出向右上方倾斜的正常态势,但是还存在着曲线趋于平坦、国债品种单一化等问题。     

Bayesian Estimation of the Parameters of Bivariate Exponential Distributions

In this article, we develop an empirical Bayesian approach for the Bayesian estimation of parameters in four bivariate exponential (BVE) distributions. We have opted for gamma distribution as a prior for the parameters of the model in which the hyper parameters have been estimated based on the method of moments and maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). A simulation study was conducted to compute empirical Bayesian estimates of the parameters and their standard errors. We use moment estimators or MLEs to estimate the hyper parameters of the prior distributions. Furthermore, we compare the posterior mode of parameters obtained by different prior distributions and the Bayesian estimates based on gamma priors are very close to the true values as compared to improper priors. We use MCMC method to obtain the posterior mean and compared the same using the improper priors and the classical estimates, MLEs.     

On the use of quasi-likelihood for estimation in hidden-Markov random fields

This paper illustrates the use of quasi-likelihood methods of inference for hidden Markov random fields. These are simple to use and can be employed under circumstances where only the model form and its covariance structure are specified. In particular they can be used to derive the same estimating equations as the E-M algorithm or change of measure methods, which make full distributional assumptions.     

Water cycle algorithm for solving the reliability-redundancy allocation problem with a choice of redundancy strategies

Abstract

This paper proposes a new mathematical model for the reliability-redundancy allocation problem (RRAP) with a choice of redundancy strategies. To maximize the reliability of a system, this model chooses the best redundancy strategy from among both active and standby ones for each subsystem. For those with a standby strategy, a continuous time Markov chain model is used to calculate the exact reliability values. In order to solve the proposed mixed-integer non-linear programing model, a powerful evolutionary algorithm, called water cycle algorithm (WCA), is developed and implemented on three famous benchmark problems. Finally, the results of different benchmark problems are compared with those previously reported to show the superiority of the proposed model and the efficiency of WCA.     

Some Estimates for the Rate of Convergence in the Multidimensional Central Limit Theorem for Homogeneous Markov Chains

This paper obtains some estimates for the rate of convergence in the multi-dimensional central limit theorem for vector-valued functions of a homogeneous Markov chain without assuming the finiteness of their absolute third moment. These estimates have a universal character and generalize the results that hold when the third moments are finite.     

One-sided synthetic control charts for monitoring the multivariate coefficient of variation

Shewhart's type control charts for monitoring the Multivariate Coefficient of Variation (MCV) have recently been proposed in order to monitor the relative variability compared with the mean. These approaches are known to be rather slow in the detection of small or moderate process shifts. In this paper, in order to improve the detection efficiency, two one-sided Synthetic charts for the MCV are proposed. A Markov chain method is used to evaluate the statistical performance of the proposed charts. Furthermore, computational experiments reveal that the proposed control charts outperform the Shewhart MCV control chart in terms of the average run length to detect an out-of-control state. Finally, the implementation of the proposed chart is illustrated with an example using steel sleeves data.     

Optimal design of the variable sampling size and sampling interval variable dimension T2 control chart for monitoring the mean vector of a multivariate normal process

This paper develops the algorithm for the optimization designs of the adaptive T² Control Chart for Monitoring the Mean Vector of a Multivariate Normal Process. It includes the variable sample size, variable sampling interval and variable dimensional chart. The VDT² control chart performs well for moderate and large shifts in the mean vector. However, its performance for small shifts is poor. To improve the chart's performance in detecting such shifts, we propose the application of the variable sample size and sampling interval technique to the VDT² control chart, resulting in the VSSIVDT² control chart.     

Monitoring the coefficient of variation using a variable sample size and sampling interval control chart

This article proposes a CV chart by using the variable sample size and sampling interval (VSSI) feature to improve the performance of the basic CV chart, for detecting small and moderate shifts in the CV. The proposed VSSI CV chart is designed by allowing the sample size and the sampling interval to vary. The VSSI CV chart's statistical performance is measured by using the average time to signal (ATS) and expected average time to signal (EATS) criteria and is compared with that of existing CV charts. The Markov chain approach is employed in the design of the chart.     

Estimation of the coefficient of variation for non-normal model using progressive first-failure-censoring data

The coefficient of variation (CV) is extensively used in many areas of applied statistics including quality control and sampling. It is regarded as a measure of stability or uncertainty, and can indicate the relative dispersion of data in the population to the population mean. In this article, based on progressive first-failure-censored data, we study the behavior of the CV of a random variable that follows a Burr-XII distribution. Specifically, we compute the maximum likelihood estimations and the confidence intervals of CV based on the observed Fisher information matrix using asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator and also by using the bootstrapping technique. In addition, we propose to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to tackle this problem, which allows us to construct the credible intervals. A numerical example based on real data is presented to illustrate the implementation of the proposed procedure. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to observe the behavior of the proposed methods.     

Non‐Parametric Estimation of the Conditional Distribution of the Interjumping Times for Piecewise‐Deterministic Markov Processes

This paper presents a non‐parametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise‐deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a long time interval. Our method relies on a generalization of Aalen's multiplicative intensity model. We prove the uniform consistency of our estimator, under some reasonable assumptions related to the primitive characteristics of the process. A simulation study illustrates the behaviour of our estimator.     

教学质量评估的两种方法

文章研究了教学质量评估中两种定量分析的方法:马尔可夫链评估法、奖罚权系数矩阵法,给出了这两种方法的理论依据及实施程序。用该方法对哈尔滨工程大学2002级大学数学(高等数学→线性代数→概率论与数理统计)教学质量进行了分析,指出该方法较之其他教学质量评估法更显合理。     

The strong law of large numbers and the Shannon-McMillan theorem for the mth-order nonhomogeneous Markov chains indexed by an m rooted Cayley tree

ABSTRACT

In this article, we studied the strong law of large numbers(LLN) and Shannon-McMillan theorem for an mth-order nonhomogeneous Markov chain indexed by an m- rooted Cayley tree. This article generalized the relative results of level mth-order nonhomogeneous Markov chains indexed by an m- rooted Cayley tree.