Risk behavior for gain,loss, and mixed prospects

This study extends experimental tests of (cumulative) prospect theory (PT) over prospects with more than three outcomes and tests second-order stochastic dominance principles (Levy and Levy, Management Science 48:1334–1349, 2002; Baucells and Heukamp, Management Science 52:1409–1423, 2006). It considers choice behavior of people facing prospects of three different types: gain prospects (losing is not possible), loss prospects (gaining is not possible), and mixed prospects (both gaining and losing are possible). The data supports the distinction of risk behavior into these three categories of prospects, Further, probability weighting and diminishing sensitivity of utility as predicted by PT are observed. Loss aversion is, however, less pronounced, except for choices where one prospect is degenerate. The data suggests that the probability of losing may be relevant for loss aversion.     

Do Trade Union Leaders Violate Subjective Expected Utility? Some Insights From Experimental Data

This paper presents the results of two experiments designed to test violations of Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) within a sample of Italian trade union delegates and leaders. Subjects priced risky and ambiguous prospects in the domain of gains. Risky prospects were based on games of chance, while ambiguous prospects were built on the standard Ellsberg paradox and on event lotteries whose outcomes were based either on the results of a fictional election or on the future results of the 1999 European Parliamentary election in Italy and the U.K. The experiments show that, although risky prospects were priced at their expected values on average, trade union delegates and leaders did violate SEUT when assessing ambiguous prospects. Moreover, their behaviour depended on the source of uncertainty (Ellsberg paradox vs. electoral results; fictional vs. real election; Italy vs. U.K. election outcomes). We discuss the implications of these results for the economic theory of the trade union.     

Individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty: An experimental study

These experiments are concerned with individual behavior under risk and under uncertainty. By exploiting the isolation effect the experiments were able to offer to 134 subjects the possibility of actually gaining or losing an important sum of money.The experimental data show that under risk as well as under complete ignorance the subjects' attitudes towards prospects of gains and towards prospects of losses are totally unrelated.The data also show that when facing prospects of gains, the subjects generally take the exact probabilities of the events into account, whereas, when facing prospects of losses many of then have only recourse to coarser categories of plausibility, or even no longer use their information at all.     

Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights

Professional options traders priced risky prospects as well as uncertain prospects whose outcomes depended on future values of various stocks. The prices of the risky prospects coincided with their expected value, but the prices of the uncertain prospects violated expected utility theory. An event had greater impact on prices when it turned an impossibility into a possibility or a possibility into a certainty than when it merely made a possibility more or less likely, as predicted by prospect theory. This phenomenon is attributed to the subadditivity of judged probabilities.     

Better job prospects or an imperative to ‘just work’? A cross-national study on social investment and women's employment

Social investment policies advocate for more and better jobs by supporting families' work-life balance and investing in human capital. But do they really help to boost employment prospects for women? Earlier literature suggests a positive relationship, but not enough attention has been paid to the type of employment, or to who the actual beneficiaries of these measures are. This article combines ISSP survey data with OECD and national data in a multilevel analysis to determine whether social investment policies benefit female employment, improve job prospects, and apply to all women irrespective of their educational level. We find that training and childcare policies are associated with higher employment levels, however, the claim that social investment increases chances for better job prospects finds little empirical support. These findings suggest that active labour market and childcare policies are associated with more women's employment, but they might still be following a push to ‘just work’.     

A Unified Bayesian Decision Theory

This paper provides new foundations for Bayesian Decision Theory based on a representation theorem for preferences defined on a set of prospects containing both factual and conditional possibilities. This use of a rich set of prospects not only provides a framework within which the main theoretical claims of Savage, Ramsey, Jeffrey and others can be stated and compared, but also allows for the postulation of an extended Bayesian model of rational belief and desire from which they can be derived as special cases. The main theorem of the paper establishes the existence of a such a Bayesian representation of preferences over conditional prospects, i.e. the existence of a pair of real-valued functions respectively measuring the agent’s degrees of belief and desire and which satisfy the postulated rationality conditions on partial belief and desire. The representation of partial belief is shown to be unique and that of partial desire, unique up to a linear transformation.     

Emerging markets: Prospects and challenges

This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term. It argues that EM policymakers’ ability to grapple with an incomplete and uneven recovery will be constrained by high public debt and uncertain inflation prospects as well as external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments. The paper also discusses potential impact of a tightening in global financial conditions and appreciation of the US dollar that could be triggered by a general increase in risk aversion or a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy.     

Competence effects for choices involving gains and losses

We investigate how choices for uncertain gain and loss prospects are affected by the decision maker’s perceived level of knowledge about the underlying domain of uncertainty. Specifically, we test whether Heath and Tversky’s (J Risk Uncertain 4:5–28, 1991) competence hypothesis extends from gains to losses. We predict that the commonly-observed preference for high knowledge over low knowledge prospects for gains reverses for losses. We employ an empirical setup in which participants make hypothetical choices between gain or loss prospects in which the outcome depends on whether a high or low knowledge event occurs. We infer decision weighting functions for high and low knowledge events from choices using a representative agent preference model. For gains, we replicate the results of Kilka and Weber (Manage Sci 47:1712–1726, 2001), finding that decision makers are more attracted to choices that they feel more knowledgeable about. However, for losses, we find limited support for our extension of the competence effect.     

Policy modelling of the trade-off between agricultural development and land degradation—the Sudan case

The agricultural policy model of the trade-off between agricultural growth and land degradation that we have developed, with Sudan as an application, shares common features with the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is used to address two questions. First, what are the future prospects of a green gross domestic product (GDP), are there reasons for alarm or not, and to what extent? Secondly, which among the four policies of price incentives, property rights, poverty reduction, and human capital are more effective than the others? We show that the prospects of natural resource-friendly agricultural development in Sudan—a rising green GDP—are not promising in the medium run, but that, indeed, there is a range of effective policies and choices that could reduce the trade-off between economic growth and land degradation.     

Delayed probabilistic risk attitude: a parametric approach

Theory and Decision - Experimental studies suggest that individuals exhibit more risk aversion in choices among prospects when the payment and resolution of uncertainty are immediate relative to...     

The advantages and disadvantages of the contribution base in targeting benefits: A social analysis of the insurance scheme in the United Kingdom

This article assesses the role which social insurance plays within the social security scheme in contemporary Great Britain, and presents this analysis for comparison and assessment to an international audience. The structure of the Beveridge scheme is briefly outlined and adaptations to it discussed. The scheme's failure to provide comprehensive social protection in Great Britain is then explained and the consequent drift towards social assistance is noted. A contrast is drawn between the advantages and disadvantages of insurance protection from a social policy perspective. Finally, the prospects for social insurance are briefly appraised and compared with alternative possible models for social security. From this it is concluded that, despite its past failings, even in Great Britain the prospects for social insurance protection remain strong.     

High Employment and Social Security: Vision or Illusion in a Globalized World?

This article addresses two issues in the context of globalization. First it considers whether the goals of successful employment policy and social equilibrium are at all reconcilable. Second it looks at ways in which the labour market prospects of workers who are at a competitive disadvantage, prospects which are poor in many countries, can be improved on a lasting basis. Using the example of export-oriented countries such as Denmark or the Netherlands, it shows that a social State which offers help but expects something back can be an integral part of an effective strategy to generate jobs. This is particularly true where earlier generous transfers are maintained while targeted incentives create the conditions for a flexible economy and a flexible labour market.     

Recursive expected utility and the separation of attitudes towards risk and ambiguity: an experimental study

We use the multiple price list method and a recursive expected utility theory of smooth ambiguity to separate out attitude towards risk from that towards ambiguity. Based on this separation, we investigate if there are differences in agent behaviour under uncertainty over gain amounts vis-a-vis uncertainty over loss amounts. On an aggregate level, we find that (i) subjects are risk averse over gains and risk seeking over losses, displaying a “reflection effect” and (ii) they are ambiguity neutral over gains and are mildly ambiguity seeking over losses. Further analysis shows that on an individual level, and with respect to both risky and ambiguous prospects, there is limited incidence of a reflection effect where subjects are risk/ambiguity averse (seeking) in gains and seeking (averse) in losses, though this incidence is higher for ambiguous prospects. A very high proportion of such cases of reflection exhibit risk (ambiguity) aversion in gains and risk (ambiguity) seeking in losses, with the reverse effect being significantly present in the case of risk but almost absent in case of ambiguity. Our results suggest that reflection across gains and losses is not a stable individual characteristic, but depends upon whether the form of uncertainty is precise or ambiguous, since we rarely find an individual who exhibits reflection in both risky and ambiguous prospects. We also find that correlations between attitudes towards risk and ambiguity were domain dependent.      

本土社会工作与专业社会工作的互构演化——“1＋3”组合实践模式的学理阐释

“1＋3”实践组合模式的学理研究表明：虽然两种社会工作的理念和方法截然不同，但二者既不是非此即彼的关系，也非简单的理论与实践的关系，因为在这些表象背后深藏着文明的冲突与整合；两种社会工作在相互对立的同时，也在相互建构，展示出互构演化发展的前景。     

A challenge to the compound lottery axiom: A two-stage normative structure and comparison to other theories

This paper examines preferences among uncertain prospects when the decision maker is uneasy about his assignment of subjective probabilities. It proposes a two-stage lottery framework for the analysis of such prospects, where the first stage represents an assessment of the vagueness (ambiguity) in defining the problem's randomness and the second stage represents an assessment of the problem for each hypothesized randomness condition. Standard axioms of rationality are prescribed for each stage, including weak ordering, continuity, and strong independence. The Reduction of Compound Lotteries' axiom is weakened, however, so that the two lottery stages have consistent, but not collapsible, preference structures. The paper derives a representation theorem from the primitive preference axioms, and the theorem asserts that preference-consistent decisions are made as if the decision maker is maximizing a modified expected utility functional. This representation and its implications are compared to alternative decision models. Criteria for assigning the relative empirical power of the alternative models are suggested.     

Incomplete risk attitudes and random choice behavior: an elicitation mechanism

Theory and Decision - In the presence of incomplete risk attitudes, choices between noncomparable risky prospects are random. A random choice model advanced by Karni (Incomplete preferences and...     

Perestroika,Second Edition

The author assesses the prospects of a "second perestroika" based on his interpretation of modern Russian history in terms of the concepts of revolution and counterrevolution.     

民间纠纷调解的社会工作介入——基于沪浙等地的“老娘舅”的思考

通过对沪浙"老娘舅"在民间纠纷调解传统模式的介绍和进一步的分析,探讨民间纠纷调解的新思路,指出社会工作介入民间纠纷调解的可行性,包括社会工作可介入民间纠纷调解的领域、理论以及技巧,进而讨论其中几个伦理议题。并指出二者互惠合作发展的前景。     

Measuring risk aversion with lists: a new bias

Various experimental procedures aimed at measuring individual risk aversion involve a list of pairs of alternative prospects. We first study the widely used method by Holt and Laury (Am Econ Rev 92(5):1644–1655, 2002), for which we find that the removal of some items from the lists yields a systematic decrease in risk aversion and scrambles the ranking of individuals by risk aversion. This bias, that we call embedding bias, is quite distinct from other confounds that have been previously observed in the use of the HL method. It may be related to empirical phenomena and theoretical developments where better prospects increase risk aversion. Nevertheless, we also find that the more recent elicitation method due to Abdellaoui et al. (Theory Decis 71:63–80, 2011), also based on lists but using only one and the same probability in the list, does not display any statistically significant bias when the corresponding items of the list are removed. Our results suggest that methods other than the popular HL one may be preferable for the measurement of risk aversion.