On Tiku's robust procedure — a Bayesian insight

Tiku's robust procedure for testing mean and variance from nonnormal universe is examined from the Bayesian viewpoint. The posterior distribution of the scale parameter is derived and then approximated by a Laguerre polynomial expansion while the posterior distribution of the location parameter is approximated by a linear combination of t-distributions. For the example with Darwin's data, the approximations appear to be extremely good.     

Allocation of sample using values of auxiliary characteristic

The optimum allocation given by Neyman (1934) is not normally feasible in practice since the values of the standard deviations of the characteristic under study are not known. In this paper, it is shown how the values of auxiliary characteristic linearly related to the study variable can be used in the allocation of the sample. It is also found that proportional allocation can be more efficient than an approximation to Neyman's allocation by using estimates of standard deviations of the study variable from a previous survey or approximations to them from some variable related to the study variable.     

Some new classes of multivariate survival distribution functions

The concept of the univariate mean remaining life (m.r.l.) function is generalized to the multivariate case. The multivariate mean remaining life (m.m.r.l.) function is utilized to introduce four new classes of multivariate survival distribution functions (s.d.f.'s). Each of these classes is a new generalization of the univariate decreasing mean remaining life (DMRL) class of s.d.f.'s. The duals of these classes are introduced. Some properties, physical interpretation, and relationships among these classes are investigated. Also for each case, the class of s.d.f.'s common in a class and its dual is characterized.     

Stopping times of one-sample rank order sequential probability ratio tests

Weed, Bradley and Grovindarajulu (1974) propose one-sample probability ratio tests based on Lehmann alternatives. They also study the finite sure termination of the stopping times. Motivated by Stein's proof of (1946) of the termination of a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) in the case of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables and the work of Sethuraman (1970) for the two- sample rank order SPRT, we obtain a very mild condition (namely, that a certain random variable U(Z) is not identically zero) for the finite sure termination of the existence of the moment generating function (m.g.f.) for the stopping time of one- sample rank order SPRT's.     

Log linear models for multivariate paired comparison experiments with ties

A log linear multivariate paired comparison model for ties is proposed in which the cell probabilities under independence are those given by Davidson (1970). Altham's (1970) generalized measure of association (iv) is used to compare the association structure between two models, one having full, the other having reduced association structure. Based on the model with reduced association structure, the analysis of data from a consumer preference experiment is presented.     

Two concepts of conditionality

Birnbaum's proof that C and M imply L, would lose its force if it is shown that in some situations M is not acceptable. Godambe (1979) has shown that Birnbaum's M is not as obvious or intuitive as the concept that a ‘mere relabelling’ of sample points should make no difference to the interference that can appropriately be drawn from a particular outcome of a given experiment. Akaike (1982) has shown that in certain situations M amounts to the assertion that a relabelling of sample points involving a false reporting of the outcome of an experiment should make no difference to the inference drawn from a particular outcome of a given experiment. It is shown in this paper that in the situation discussed by Akaike, even if M were to be considered acceptable, it is only a modified conditionality principle C? and M which can formally imply L; Birnbaum's conditionality principle C and M do not imply L.     

Estimation of a linear transformation and an associated distributional problem

A multivariate “errors in variables” regression model is proposed which generalizes a model previously considered by Gleser and Watson (1973). Maximum likelihood estimators [MLE's] for the parameters of this model are obtained, and the consistency properties of these estimators are investigated. Distribution of the MLE of the “error” variance is obtained in a simple case while the mean and the variance of the estimator are obtained in this case without appealing to the exact distribution.     

Covariance changes detection in multivariate time series

This paper studies the detection of step changes in the variances and in the correlation structure of the components of a vector of time series. Two procedures based on the likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistic and on a cumulative sums (cusum) statistic are considered and compared in a simulation study. We conclude that for a single covariance change the cusum procedure is more powerful in small and medium samples, whereas the likelihood ratio test is more powerful in large samples. However, for several covariance changes the cusum procedure works clearly better. The procedures are illustrated in two real data examples.     

A stochastic Newton-Raphson method

A stochastic approximation procedure of the Robbins-Monro type is considered. The original idea behind the Newton-Raphson method is used as follows. Given n approximations X₁,…, X_n with observations Y₁,…, Y_n, a least squares line is fitted to the points (X_m, Y_m),…, (X_n, Y_n) where m<n may depend on n. The (n+1)st approximation is taken to be the intersection of the least squares line with y=0. A variation of the resulting process is studied. It is shown that this process yields a strongly consistent sequence of estimates which is asymptotically normal with minimal asymptotic variance.     

Subset selection of superior populations when the number of populations is large

The situation where k populations are partitioned into one inferior group and one superior group is considered. The statistical problem is to select a random size subset of superior populations while trying to avoid including any inferior populations. A selection procedure is assumed to satisfy the condition that the probability of selecting at least one superior population is bounded below by P¹<1. The performance of a procedure is measured by the probability of including an inferior population.The asymptotic performance, as k→∞ of Gupta's traditional maximum type procedure ψ^G is considered in the location-model. For normally distributed populations, ψ^G turns out to be asymptotically optimal, provided the size of the inferior group does not become infinitely larger than the size of the superior group.     

Estimating the probability of winning (losing) in a gambler's ruin problem with applications

In a classical gambler's ruin problem, the distribution of the number of games lost till ruin is considered, which we call the lost game distribution (LGD). Some applications of LGD in the theory of queues, in the theory of epidemic and in certain clustering and branching models are mentioned. The maximum likelihood estimation of LGD in the framework of modified power series distribution (MPSD), introduced by the author (1974), is studied. The variance and bias of the MLE are given and the actual mean of the MLE is obtained by discussing the negative moments of the MPSD in general. The minimum variance unbiased estimator of θ^k (k≥1) is obtained employing the technique developed by the author (1977) for the class of MPSD.     

On the Cusum test for parameter changes in garch(1,1) Models

This paper considers the problem of testing parameter constancy in GARCH(1,1) models. A cusum of squares test is propesed in analogy Of Incl´n and Tiao (1394)'s statistic. its limiting distribution is derived via using the invariance principle for mixingaie sequences obtained by McLeish(1975). Simulation results are illustrated to demonstrate the validity of the cusum test.     

Second-Order Approximations to Two Classes of Sequential Estimation Procedures

For the model considered by Chaturvedi, Pandey and Gupta (1991), two classes of sequential procedures are developed to construct confidence regions (which may be interval, ellipsoidal or spherical) of ‘pre-assigned width and coverage probability’ for the parameters of interest and for the minimum risk point estimation (taking loss to be quadratic plus linear cost of sampling) of the nuisance parameter. Second-Order approximations are derived for the expected sample size, coverage probability and ‘regret’ associated with the two classes of sequential procedures. A simple and direct method of obtaining the asymptotic distribution of the stopping time is provided. By means of examples, it is illustrated that several estimation problems can be tackled with the help of proposed classes of sequential procedures.     

Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

An investigation of Kendall's τ modified for censored data with applications

To accommodate testing for independence in bivariate data subject to censoring, several modifications of Kendall's τ are discussed. An extensive computer simulation is done to investigate power properties of these modifications under alternatives of the bivariate normal or bivariate exponential types. The statistics are then applied to available heart pacemaker patient survival data.     

The Cusum Test for Parameter Change in Time Series Models

Abstract.  In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for parameter changes in time series models based on a cusum test. Although the test procedure is well established for the mean and variance in time series models, a general parameter case has not been discussed in the literature. Therefore, here we develop a cusum test for parameter change in a more general framework. As an example, we consider the change of the parameters in a random coeefficient autoregressive (1) model and that of the autocovariances of a linear process. Simulation results are reported for illustration.     

Testing equality of ratios from two finite populations

Approximations are given for the bias and variance of both the regression and ratio estimator when sampling from a finite population, and simulation results are given indicating the accuracy of the approximations and the bias of the estimated approximations. A different estimator for the variance of the regression estimator is recommended. Test procedures are proposed for testing the hypothesis of equality of ratios from two finite populations, the procedures depending upon the types of populations being sampled. Simulation results indicating the effectiveness of the test procedures in controlling their size are given.     

The Cusum of Squares Test for Scale Changes in Infinite Order Moving Average Processes

In this paper we consider the problem of testing for a scale change in the infinite order moving average process X _j = _{i =0} a _{i j i} , where _j are i.i.d. r.v.s with E ₁ < for some > 0. In performing the test, a cusum of squares test statistic analogous to Inclan & Tiao's (1994) statistic is considered. It is well-known from the literature that outliers affect test procedures leading to false conclusions. In order to remedy this, a cusum of squares test based on trimmed observations is considered. It is demonstrated that this test is robust against outliers, is valid for infinite variance processes as well. Simulation results are given for illustration.     

Optimal weighing designs with a string property

We consider the usual (spring balance) weighing design set-up with the design matrix having a string property meaning thereby that in every row of it, there is exactly one run of 1's (the rest of the elements being 0's). We have investigated some interesting features of such matrices and used them in deriving various optimality results.     

Large sample theory of the Langevin distribution

The Langevin (or von Mises-Fisher) distribution of random vector x on the unit sphere ω_q in $\text{R}$^q has a density proportional to exp κμ'x where μ'x is the scalar product of x with the unit modal vector μ and κ?0 is a concentration parameter. This paper studies estimation and tests for a wide variety of situations when the sample sizes are large. Geometrically simple test statistics are given for many sample problems even when the populations may have unequal concentration parameters.