Financial spread betting

Traditional betting has two outcomes: you win or you lose. Spread betting has many more possibilities: you can win a lot or a little; you can lose or lose much, much more than you imagined. Spread betting, say its fans, brings a whole new level of uncertainty—and excitement. It has been described as the crack cocaine of gambling. Spread bets can be laid on almost any sporting or other result, but in the field of finance it is making particular inroads. David Buik , of the City spread betting company Cantor Index Ltd, explains.     

Estimating Probability Distributions by Observing Betting Practices

A bookmaker takes bets on a two-horse race, attempting to minimize expected loss over all possible outcomes of the race. Profits are controlled by manipulation of customer' betting behavior; in order to do this, we need some information about the probability distribution which describes how the customers will bet. We examine what information initial customer' betting behavior provides about this probability distribution, and consider how to use this to estimate the probability distribution for remaining customers.     

Linked Data: What Is It and What Can It Do?

Abstract

There has been a lot of talk, discussion (and even buzz) on the Internet and in the library world recently on the whole issue of linked data and what it may mean, accomplish, and even change in the Internet and library worlds. This article will attempt to clarify what linked data is, some of the issues surrounding it, and explore some possible implications.     

Scatterplots

A pair of axes, a few data points liberally distributed around, click on the mouse and your software will sort you out a scatterplot. Or will it? R. Allan Reese can tell you better.     

The probability of rapid climate change

If you look at a map of the air temperature of the surface of the Earth, you will see that North West Europe, including the UK, is warmer than Alaska, which is at the same latitude but on the Pacific rather than Atlantic Ocean. At school you were probably told that this was because of the Gulf Stream. However, there is a very similar current in the Pacific—the Kuroshio—which takes warm water north past Japan and then out into the Atlantic. Peter Challenor asks: What is the unique feature of the Atlantic that keeps us warm and could it change in the next few years?     

Linked Data: What Is It and What Can It Do?

There has been a lot of talk, discussion (and even buzz) on the Internet and in the library world recently on the whole issue of linked data and what it may mean, accomplish, and even change in the Internet and library worlds. This article will attempt to clarify what linked data is, some of the issues surrounding it, and explore some possible implications.     

Coherent Frequentism: A Decision Theory Based on Confidence Sets

By representing fair betting odds according to one or more pairs of confidence set estimators, dual parameter distributions called confidence posteriors secure the coherence of actions without any prior distribution. This theory reduces to the maximization of expected utility when the pair of posteriors is induced by an exact or approximate confidence set estimator or when a reduction rule is applied to the pair. Unlike the p-value, the confidence posterior probability of an interval hypothesis is suitable as an estimator of the indicator of hypothesis truth since it converges to 1 if the hypothesis is true or to 0 otherwise.     

Some advances in optimal designs in contingent valuation studies

When an organisation such as a local or health authority or an environmental agency is considering making new or increased charges for a (new) amenity it might commission a survey in which a key question would be of the form:‘Are you Willing To Pay an amount X for the (new) amenity?’.This illustrates one type of contingent valuation (CV) study, namely, a dichotomous choice CV study with the figure X being a ‘Bid’ value. The paper will focus on double bounded CV's in which a second bid is offered.In particular we focus on optimal designs for the second bid of a double bounded study given the response at the first bid. These will be useful when there is a time gap between offering the two bids.     

Decision-making in betting markets

The placing of a bet is a classic example of decision-making under uncertainty. A betting market is also an example of a simple financial market, but one which possesses the advantage that each bet is characterised by a well-defined end point at which it possesses a definite value, i.e. the amount won or lost. Leighton Vaughan Williams explains the implications for our understanding of economic decision-making of the observed tendency for the expected returns on bets to differ markedly at different odds levels.     

Publish and be delayed

What does it take to get a book published? And if you fail to get it published, after how long should you give up? S. J. Morrison can help answer. His book has been nearly half a century in gestation – and then publishers let him down. And then it won a prize. Julian Champkin talked to him.     

A validation of a computer-assisted randomized response survey to estimate the prevalence of fraud in social security

Summary.  In the Netherlands, there is a research tradition that measures fraud against regulations by interviewing eligible individuals using a survey. In these studies the sensitive questions about fraud are posed by using a randomized response method. The paper describes the results of a Dutch study into the consequences of replacing home interviews by trained interviewers with Internet-delivered interviews in a survey on fraud in the area of disability benefits. Both surveys used computer-assisted self-interviews with randomized response questions. This study has three goals: first to present the research tradition that makes use of randomized response, second to compare the results of home interviews and the Internet survey and finally to introduce an adapted weighted logistic regression method to test the relationship between the probability of fraud and explanatory variables. The results show that there are no systematic differences between modes of interview, either for estimates of the prevalence of fraud or for the identification of associated variables. These outcomes result in the conclusion that the Internet survey is a useful and cost-effective instrument for measuring fraud in a population, and that it is unlikely that replacing home interviews with the Internet survey will result in a significant break with tradition.     

Side betting and playing the National Lottery: an exercise in policy design

This paper demonstrates a methodology for estimating the frequencies by which numbers are selected by National Lottery players by utilizing a twofold approach of a Multi-Response Non-Linear Regression model in conjunction with a suggested approximation function for number selections, which leads to an explanation of number choice in terms of the spatial effects of form design. It shows that in a marketplace, side betting is complementary with the main online draw product, and market forces produce close substitutes if side betting on the National Lottery is prohibited.     

Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market

A parametric model is developed and fitted to English league and cup football data from 1992 to 1995. The model is motivated by an aim to exploit potential inefficiencies in the association football betting market, and this is examined using bookmakers' odds from 1995 to 1996. The technique is based on a Poisson regression model but is complicated by the data structure and the dynamic nature of teams' performances. Maximum likelihood estimates are shown to be computationally obtainable, and the model is shown to have a positive return when used as the basis of a betting strategy.     

互联网驱动产业结构高级化效应分析

经济新常态下,互联网已经成为中国经济转型升级的重要引擎。基于中国2003—2013年30个省市(区)的省级面板数据,实证分析互联网发展对中国产业结构高级化影响效应。研究结果表明:在静态上,互联网发展对产业结构升级具有显著的正向影响;互联网发展对产业结构高级化的溢出效应表现出地区差异;产业结构高级化受其前一期的显著影响,表明产业结构高级化进程具有显著的惯性。     

A discrete-time and finite-state Markov Chain model for association football matches

A birth process model proposed by Dixon and Robinson has been widely used in football spread betting market. However, multiple goals in a minute are permitted in the model, which does not conform to historical record. Moreover, it is difficult to calculate the outcome probability of the process accurately. The article presents a discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain model for real-time forecast of football matches and a recursive algorithm is derived to calculate the outcome probability accurately. The empirical study shows that the proposed model outperforms the models of Dixon and Robinson and Dixon and Coles.     

Non-random shuffling strategies in blackjack

Numerous playing and betting strategies for the game of twenty-one have been computed assuming the deck or decks are randomly shuffled. In practice, dealers do not spend the time necessary (it takes too long) to completely randomly shuffle the decks used. Hence, there is information not only from the current round of play, but potentially from the previous round of play. We present a model for a non-random shuffle and assert ways in which this information can be used. Rules are derived using a normal approximation which updates the current strategies utilizing information from a non-random shuffle.     

Streamlining Acquisition Workflows Through Collaboration and Innovation

Abstract

As a selector, have you ever wondered if the resource you requested was ordered? As an acquisitions staff member, are you struggling with keeping track of your order requests from various channels? As a manager, are you finding it challenging to monitor staff work? CORAL, an open source electronic resource management system, proved to be one solution to these concerns for North Carolina State University (NCSU) Libraries. This article discusses how to manage workflows in CORAL and outlines a NCSU initiative to evolve this tool through collaboration across departments and across the CORAL community.     

Pennsylvania′s Periodicals

Abstract

Perceptive readers may have observed, and regretted, the absence of any discussion of card catalog closings, abolition of serials departments, changes in clerical procedures, or minutiae or any of the other concrete details of library operations so dear to the hearts of us all. The craft of serials management has scarcely been mentioned. Those topics discussed — the nature of organizational change, influencing change, communication, planning for the optimum impact of automation and for flexibility throughout the development and implementation phases — are concepts difficult to introduce into the pragmatic world of libraries. It is difficult to identify causes, to predict effects, and to deal with them. These are, however, critical elements in the success or failure of a serials automation project and a library administration which addresses these issues will manage the changes brought about by automation rather than passively submitting to its consequences.     

Seeing the woods — statistics for the very young

If you go down to the woods today … you're sure of a big statistical experience. You might run into Chris Du Feu giving 9-year-olds their first lesson in statistics. Tasks for the teacher? One, clear nettles; two, make sure that leaves will stay firmly stuck in place on the bar-chart…     

A table of predictive success probabilities for logistic regression

A table of expected success rates under normally distributed success logit, used in conjunction with logistic regression analysis, enables easy calculation of expected win for betting on success of a future dichotomous trial.