The Effect of Losses Disguised as Wins and Near Misses in Electronic Gaming Machines: A Systematic Review

Near misses and losses disguised as wins have been of interest to gambling researchers and policymakers for many years (e.g., Griffiths in J Gambl Stud 9(2):101–120, 1993). This systematic literature review describes the behavioural, psychological, and psychobiological effects of near misses and losses disguised as wins (LDWs) in an effort to evaluate their precise influence on the player and to highlight areas requiring further investigation. A systematic search for relevant studies was conducted using Scopus, PubMed, PsycINFO, ProQuest Sociology databases, and the Gambling Research Exchange Ontario Knowledge Repository. A total of 51 (from an initial pool of 802) experimental peer-reviewed studies using human participants were found between 1991 and 2015. The systematic review revealed that near misses motivate continued play, but have varying effects on the emotional state or betting behaviour of the player. Near miss events were also shown to be associated with elevated skin conductance levels and diffuse activity across the brain, most consistently in areas processing reinforcement and reward. Re-examination of the studies of near misses events after classifying the type of game feedback suggested that the effectiveness of near misses is related to the phenomenology of a near miss itself rather than as a response to auditory or visual feedback provided by a slot machine. In contrast to near misses, the presence of LDWs was found to relate to an overestimation of how much a player is actually winning and was consistently viewed as an exciting event. The effect of LDWs appears to be driven by the presence of visuals and sounds most often associated with a true win. Practical implications and directions for future research are also discussed.     

Can We Perceive Near Miss? An Empirical Study

Near misses are a special kind of reinforcement which increases one’s desire to play. The aim of this paper is to examine the perception of near misses in normal population. We used a slot machine simulation running on a PC, where participants had to play four rounds with different near miss ratios (0, 15, 30 and 45%). Our sample consisted of 159 individuals with mean age of 22.8 and with no or little gambling experience. For data analysis we used chi-squared goodness-of-fit test and exact binomial test. Despite the fact, that there was a notable effect of near misses results showed that the subjects could not perceive trials of them.     

Invited article: Face,voice, and body in detecting deceit

Studies based on mean accuracy of a group of subjects suggest that most observers do no better than chance in detecting the lies of others. We argue that a case-by-case methodology, like that used in polygraphy studies may be more useful. Three behavioral measures (two kinds of smiles and pitch) were used to make predictions about the lying or truthfulness of each of 31 subjects. A case-by-case analysis of the hits and misses achieved in this way yielded an over-all accuracy of 86%. The effect on lie detection accuracy of individual differences in the use and control of different behavioral channels is discussed.Paul Ekman's work is supported by a Research Scientist Award from the National Institute of Mental Health (MH 06092).     

Covariate imbalance and precision in measuring treatment effects

Covariate adjustment can increase the precision of estimates by removing unexplained variance from the error in randomized experiments, although chance covariate imbalance tends to counteract the improvement in precision. The author develops an easy measure to examine chance covariate imbalance in randomization by standardizing the average covariate difference between the treatment and control condition. The standardized covariate difference must not exceed an upper bound in order to gain precision in covariate adjusted analysis. The author then shows how to select an adequate sample size to mitigate chance covariate imbalance and improve precision in small pilot studies.     

Infants' Reactions to Object Collision on Hit and Miss Trajectories

This experiment investigated the impact of the path of approach of an object, from head on versus from the side, and the type of imminent contact with that object, a hit versus a miss, on young infants' perceptions of object looming. Consistent with earlier studies, we found that 4‐ to 5‐month‐old infants do indeed discriminate hits versus misses. We also found a novel result regarding the path of the approaching object. The discrimination of hits from misses was modified by whether or not the approaching objects passed in front of the infants' faces; objects crossing the line of sight evoked more frequent defensive reactions than objects that did not cross the line of sight, regardless of whether or not such objects were on a collision course. These findings are discussed within the context of the development of visually guided locomotion and linear versus nonlinear paths of translation through the world.     

Erfolgsfaktoren effizienter Konfliktregelung durch Verhandlung im juristischen Kontext

This article deals with success factors for an efficient solving of legal conflicts using negotiations outside of trial courts. Negotiations, outside the court, provide the chance of finding a good win-win solution for all involved parties. A survey, which aims at finding the most common barriers to the resolution of conflicts outside trial courts, is presented in this article. The survey was conducted in a major international law firm. The lawyers were asked to list the most important reasons for negotiations failures. The results reveal a much higher importance of soft factors, especially communication and relationship issues over hard factors like e.g. business reasons. It is therefore concluded that communication and relationship are key success factors for dispute resolution in legal contexts. It is as well stressed that social science methodology and theories are useful tools for improving the understanding and effectiveness of legal negotiations. Two possible interventions for improving dispute resolution effectiveness in legal contexts are outlined.     

The Cognitive Psychology of Lottery Gambling: A Theoretical Review

Despite the current popularity of the UK National, psychologists have tended to neglect lottery play. This review provides a summary of current research findings and outlines the main cognitive theories of gambling as related to non-pathological lottery play. A discussion of various biases and irrational thinking patterns typically found in lottery gambling will be given. These will include the misunderstanding of lottery odds, a susceptibility to the gambler's fallacy and cognitive entrapment, a belief in hot and cold numbers, unrealistic optimism, a belief in personal luck, superstitious thinking, the illusion of control, the erroneous perception of near misses, a susceptibility to prize size and rollover effects, the framing of gambling outcomes and finally, the influence of social factors on lottery play. It is concluded that the psychology of lottery play needs a more unified theory which whilst largely cognitive in emphasis, should also incorporate social motivations such as those inherent in syndicate based lottery play.     

Gender differences in the use of high-variance strategies in tournament competition

We report on a series of experiments in which participants first completed a simple game of chance and then competed in a tournament based on a multiple cue probability learning task. The results show that men made riskier choices in the simple game of chance, but women adopted the high-variance strategy more frequently in the tournament. However, after controlling for differences in forecasting skill, we find no significant differences in the rates at which men and women adopted a high-variance strategy. Although altering the difficulty of the forecasting task produces differences in the rate at which participants selected the high-variance strategy, it did not produce a significant difference in the rate at which men and women selected the strategy. Thus, this paper suggests that although women are more risk-averse than men, women are no less likely to adopt a high-variance strategy in a tournament competition.     

The Frustrating Effects of Just Missing the Jackpot: Slot Machine Near-Misses Trigger Large Skin Conductance Responses, But No Post-reinforcement Pauses

Near-misses in slot machines resemble jackpot wins but fall just short. Previous research has demonstrated that near-misses are behaviorally reinforcing despite the absence of monetary reward. We assessed the hedonic properties of near-misses by measuring the time between outcome delivery and the initiation of the next spin—the post-reinforcement pause (PRP) and skin conductance responses (SCRs) for losses, near-misses, and a range of wins (5, 15, 25, 50 or 250 credits) while participants (N = 122) played a slot machine simulator. PRPs and SCRs were compared for 40 low frequency and 22 high frequency slots players who were non-problem gamblers, 37 at risk players, and 23 problem gamblers. For winning outcomes, PRPs and SCRs tracked monotonically with win size such that progressively larger wins were associated with progressively larger PRPs and SCRs. Near-misses with jackpot symbols landing on the first two reels had significantly larger SCRs than regular losses, and other types of near misses. Crucially, PRPs for this kind of near-miss were significantly smaller than all wins, and when non-parametric statistics were used, significantly smaller than regular losses. This pattern of large SCRs and small PRPs suggest that these are highly frustrating outcomes that stimulate appetitive components of the reward system to promote continued gambling.     

Assimilation,Ethnic Competition,and Ethnic Identities of U.S.‐Born Persons of Mexican Origin

Processes governing the ethnic identification of second and later generations of Mexican immigrant descendants are explored empirically using the Latino National Political Survey, 1989–1990. With multinomial logit regressions, I test hypotheses based on three contrasting perspectives, namely, that ethnic identification, or identification other than “American,” arises directly from: a) cultural continuity and a lower level of assimilation; b) an experience of ethnic competition; and c) both processes. The results from the LNPS support the view that both processes are at work. For example, consistent with the presence of an assimilation process, the chance of “Mexican” identification (as opposed to “American” identification) declines to half in the third generation and to one tenth in the fourth and later generations, relative to the chance in the second generation. Consistent with the presence of an ethnic competition process, (perceived) experience of discrimination doubles the respondent's chance of “Mexican” identification. Also, a level rise in the darkness of skin color is associated with a 60 percent increase in the chance of Mexican identification.     

Temporal Patterns of Accuracy Confidence in Social Judgments: A New Method and Initial Results

An integrated, computer-based system was developed to record participants’ continuous judgment changes on a revised form of the Interpersonal Perception Task (IPT-15). Consistent with the considerable research on “thin slice” judgments, the mean latency for greater than chance accuracy confidence was just 16 s (median = 10 s) for the ten one-part scenes on the IPT. There was also a clear and strong linear trend for increasing accuracy confidence across the first 25 s of the ten one-part scenes. For the five-two-part scenes, where comparative judgments were required (e.g., which statement is truthful, which is a lie?), no clear pattern of increasing accuracy confidence was found, with mean scores hovering near chance. The utility of the new system for analyzing the time course of social judgments is discussed and the potential reasons for the contrasting results for the one-part and two-part scenes were examined.     

Freedom of movement vs. exclusion: a reinterpretation of the "insider"-"outsider" divide in the European Union

"This article argues that the question of free movement vs. exclusion within the European Union (EU) can be addressed satisfactorily only if we move away from the narrow state-centrism inherent in the current debate. What is required is to 'open' the state concept and examine the implications of state-society relations for EU policy making. Once this is done, it can be seen that the exclusionist stance of the immigration policy and the essentially intergovernmental nature of the policy making are due to an implicit contract between states and constituents implied by the concepts of nationality and citizenship. According to this perspective, the focus on the state or the political elite alone is too one-sided and misses the more complex factors bearing upon EU policy making in this area."     

Learning Stimulus‐Location Associations in 8‐ and 11‐Month‐Old Infants: Multimodal Versus Unimodal Information

Research on the influence of multimodal information on infants' learning is inconclusive. While one line of research finds that multimodal input has a negative effect on learning, another finds positive effects. The present study aims to shed some new light on this discussion by studying the influence of multimodal information and accompanying stimulus complexity on the learning process. We assessed the influence of multimodal input on the trial‐by‐trial learning of 8‐ and 11‐month‐old infants. Using an anticipatory eye movement paradigm, we measured how infants learn to anticipate the correct stimulus–location associations when exposed to visual‐only, auditory‐only (unimodal), or auditory and visual (multimodal) information. Our results show that infants in both the multimodal and visual‐only conditions learned the stimulus–location associations. Although infants in the visual‐only condition appeared to learn in fewer trials, infants in the multimodal condition showed better anticipating behavior: as a group, they had a higher chance of anticipating correctly on more consecutive trials than infants in the visual‐only condition. These findings suggest that effects of multimodal information on infant learning operate chiefly through effects on infants' attention.     

Effects of differential reinforcement and rules with feedback on preference for choice and verbal reports

We evaluated the effects of differential reinforcement and accurate verbal rules with feedback on the preference for choice and the verbal reports of 6 adults. Participants earned points on a probabilistic schedule by completing the terminal links of a concurrent-chains arrangement in a computer-based game of chance. In free-choice terminal links, participants selected 3 numbers from an 8-number array; in restricted-choice terminal links participants selected the order of 3 numbers preselected by a computer program. A pop-up box then informed the participants if the numbers they selected or ordered matched or did not match numbers generated by the computer but not displayed; matching in a trial resulted in one point earned. In baseline sessions, schedules of reinforcement were equal across free- and restricted-choice arrangements and a running tally of points earned was shown each trial. The effects of differentially reinforcing restricted-choice selections were evaluated using a reversal design. For 4 participants, the effects of providing a running tally of points won by arrangement and verbal rules regarding the schedule of reinforcement were also evaluated using a nonconcurrent multiple-baseline-across-participants design. Results varied across participants but generally demonstrated that (a) preference for choice corresponded more closely to verbal reports of the odds of winning than to reinforcement schedules, (b) rules and feedback were correlated with more accurate verbal reports, and (c) preference for choice corresponded more highly to the relative number of reinforcements obtained across free- and restricted-choice arrangements in a session than to the obtained probability of reinforcement or to verbal reports of the odds of winning.     

Testing models of information avoidance with binary choice dictator games

Standard social choice experiments generally force subjects to make decisions about giving money to another person, but the ability to avoid information outside of the lab could lead to less altruistic or fair behavior than such experiments tend to suggest. I expand on the design of Dana, Weber, and Kuang (2007) to better study information avoidance in an experimental setting. Subjects are given the chance to avoid information about a recipient’s payoffs in a dictator game. I vary the probability that a dictator’s payoffs will be aligned with the recipient’s in order to assess the role of beliefs on avoidance and test contradictory models. The within-subjects approach shows that even people who are generous in a stark choice will make self-serving decisions when they can avoid knowing the recipient’s outcome. People avoid information more often when the self-serving choice is unlikely to hurt the recipient, which supports Rabin’s model (1995) of moral rules and moral preferences.     

THE PROXIMATE CONTEXTS OF WORKFARE AND WORK:

This article provides a framework for examining how the conditions of urban, low-income, single motherhood and the resources available through personal networks shape mothers' conduct in work-welfare programs. It suggests how research on welfare programs ignores work-family linkages and misses the ways economic action is embedded in social structures and communal constraints. Three rubrics of proximate context, referring to personal networks, urban environments, and moral economies, organize material indicating how patterns of personal life shape work efforts. Data from a qualitative study of mothers in AFDC work-welfare programs provide illustrations.     

How to fight the ‘Methodenstreit’? Veblen and Weber on economics,psychology and action

There have been comparative discussions about Thorstein Veblen and Max Weber before, but not quite from the most appropriate viewpoint. The present paper treats them as theorists of action, in social and economic analysis, and this perspective yields some interesting new findings. Both theorists are to be taken as participants in the great Methodenstreit in economics, 100 years ago, and it is Veblen who suggests a more radical solution to this dispute, he suggests its final abolishment. The main difference between Veblen and Weber is in their respective appreciations of the role of psychology in social analysis. Weber does not think it important, but in so thinking he misses the viewpoint of evolutionary psychology that Veblen endorses. Accordingly, both of these classical thinkers are to be considered as theorists of action, but so that it is Veblen who proffers a more general theory.     

ERRORS IN OUTPUT DEFLATORS REVISITED: UNIT VALUES AND THE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX

Output prices are mismeasured because of inadequate adjustments for changes in product quality. Thus, when quality improves, inflation will be systematically over-stated. In this study, I find that the most commonly used indicator of the rate of inflation, the Producer Price Index, misses about 40 percent of the change in quality. However, I also find that the mismeasurement of output prices is constant over time, implying that errors of measurement are not a significant determinant of either the slowdown or recent acceleration in manufacturing productivity.     

Chance and societal change

This article advances a theory of societal change I am developing: rather than the usual pseudo‐evolutionary view which presents each phase of societal change as supplanting its predecessor, I argue that societal change is accumulative in character and that in this process of accumulation chance may play a part. In the first part of the article, using the historically important example of the British rise to paramountcy in Gujarat (now a state in northern India) as a case study, I show that the interventions of chance in this historical episode is undeniable. In the second part, I examine the contemporaneous reactions of historians and others to the British rise to paramountcy and their suppression of chance, then I examine key reasons why chance became obscured in sociological writings and in most present‐day evolutionary biological studies of human behaviour. I argue that there is no single, uniform essence of chanciness, that chance events bear a family resemblance, and that the Gujarati case study permits the identification of several sibling forms, two of which are theoretically illuminated, with some qualifications, by the writings of Raymond Boudon and Jared Diamond. I conclude that while there is more theoretical work required to distinguish and accommodate other forms of chance, nonetheless, it is time chance was rehabilitated because its readmittance into the disciplinary fold will not exclude sociological explanations, but it will help to avoid the unsavoury consequences of neglecting the topic whose exclusion is both empirically and theoretically unjustified.