Estimating Intraclass Correlation Coefficient and Identifying Influential Observations Under One-Way Random Effects Model

In this paper we consider the estimation of intraclass correlation coefficient and identification of influential observations under one-way random effects model. We introduce an approach to correct negative estimation values induced by the method of moments estimator, and provide an interval estimation for intraclass correlation coefficient. We present the diagnostic tools to identify influential observations through the uncorrected estimate of intraclass correlation coefficient. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the performance of our procedure for identifying influential observations. We also apply the method on a real data of repeated blood pressure measurements.     

Fast robust feature screening for ultrahigh-dimensional varying coefficient models

In this paper, we propose a new partial correlation, the so-called composite quantile partial correlation, to measure the relationship of two variables given other variables. We further use this correlation to screen variables in ultrahigh-dimensional varying coefficient models. Our proposed method is fast and robust against outliers and can be efficiently employed in both single index variable and multiple index variable varying coefficient models. Numerical results indicate the preference of our proposed method.     

Time-series forecasting with a novel fuzzy time-series approach: an example for Istanbul stock market

Artificial intelligence procedures such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization and other procedures such as fuzzy clustering have been successfully used in the various stages of different fuzzy time-series forecasting approaches. Fuzzy clustering, genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are generally used in the fuzzification stage, and this simplifies the applicability of this stage and makes the fuzzy time-series approach more systematic. ANNs have also been applied successfully in the fuzzy relationship determination stage. In this study, we propose a new hybrid fuzzy time-series approach in which fuzzy c-means clustering procedure is employed in the fuzzification stage and feed-forward neural networks are used in the fuzzy relationship determination stage. This study also includes an empirical analysis pertaining to the forecasting of Index 100 for the stocks and bonds exchange market of Istanbul.     

Correlation with Fuzzy Data and Its Applications in the 12-year Compulsory Education in Taiwan

In the study, we developed a new model of fuzzy correlation and empirically examined the fuzzy correlation with student test scores in subjects of Chinese and Mathematics. Our sample comprised 419 Taiwanese students in the 12-year compulsory education. We applied fuzzy theory and conducted simulations with the data from Normal, Uniform, and Cauchy distributions to illustrate the efficiency of our proposed methods.     

Confidence intervals for the difference between two median survival times for clustered survival data

Clustered survival data arise often in clinical trial design, where the correlated subunits from the same cluster are randomized to different treatment groups. Under such design, we consider the problem of constructing confidence interval for the difference of two median survival time given the covariates. We use Cox gamma frailty model to account for the within-cluster correlation. Based on the conditional confidence intervals, we can identify the possible range of covariates over which the two groups would provide different median survival times. The associated coverage probability and the expected length of the proposed interval are investigated via a simulation study. The implementation of the confidence intervals is illustrated using a real data set.     

Profile Likelihood Based Confidence Intervals for Common Intraclass Correlation Coefficient

In this article, we propose an approach for estimating the confidence interval of the common intraclass correlation coefficient based on the profile likelihood. Comparisons are made with a procedure using the concept of generalized pivots. The method presented is less computationally demanding than the method using generalized pivots. The approach also provides better coverage, and shorter lengths of confidence intervals for the case when the value of the common intraclass correlation coefficient is low. The lengths of confidence intervals given by both methods are quite comparable for high but less realistic values of the common intraclass correlation coefficient.     

Some Statistical Methods in Assessing Linear Relational Agreement: An Empirical Comparative Study

Although multiple indices were introduced in the area of agreement measurements, the only documented index for linear relational agreement, which is for interval scale data, is the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. Despite its meaningfulness, the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient does not convey the practical information such as what proportion of observations is within a certain boundary of the target value. To address this need, based on the inverse regression, we proposed the adjusted mean squared deviation (AMSD), adjusted coverage probability (ACP), and adjusted total deviation index (ATDI) for the measurement of the relational agreement. They can serve as reasonable and practically meaningful measurements for relational agreement. Real life data are considered to illustrate the performance of the methods.     

基于分组数据的样本基尼系数范围估计

 由于很多收入抽样数据只是公布了相对简约的分组数据,如何依据信息不完整的分组数据估计样本基尼系数的范围是非常重要的。本文针对分组数据中各组收入的取值范围以及各组人均收入是否已知,从多个方面探讨了样本基尼系数的取值范围,并给出了相应的估算公式。最后,结合我国城乡居民收入的分组数据,实证分析了城乡收入基尼系数的范围。     

Hierarchical clustering of variables: a comparison among strategies of analysis

In this paper some hierarchical methods for identifying groups of variables are illustrated and compared. It is shown that the use of multivariate association measures between two sets of variables can overcome the drawbacks of the usually employed bivariate correlation coefficient, but the resulting methods are generally not monotonic. Thus a new multivariate association measure is proposed, based on the links existing between canonical correlation analysis and principal component analysis, which can be more suitably used for the purpose at hand. The hierarchical method based on the suggested measure is illustrated and compared with other possible solutions by analysing simulated and real data sets. Finally an extension of the suggested method to the more general situation of mixed (qualitative and quantitative) variables is proposed and theoretically discussed.     

On multivariate Gaussian copulas

Gaussian copulas are handy tool in many applications. However, when dimension of data is large, there are too many parameters to estimate. Use of special variance structure can facilitate the task. In many cases, especially when different data types are used, Pearson correlation is not a suitable measure of dependence. We study the properties of Kendall and Spearman correlation coefficients—which have better properties and are invariant under monotone transformations—used at the place of Pearson coefficients. Spearman correlation coefficient appears to be more suitable for use in such complex applications.     

Rank Correlation — an Alternative Measure

Within the bounds of a general theory of rank correlation two particular measures have been adopted widely: Spearman7apos;s rank correlation coefficient, ρ in which ranks replace variates in Pearson's product-moment correlation calculation; and Kendall's τ in which the disarray of x -ordered data due to a y -ordering is measured by counting the minimum number, s ; of transpositions (interchanges between adjacent ranks) of the y -ordering sufficient to recover the x-ordering. Based on insights from the calculation of Kendall's coefficient, this paper develops a graphical approach which leads to a new rank correlation coefficient akin to that of Spearman. This measure appears to stand outside general theorybut has greater power of discrimination amongst differing reorderings of the data whilst simultaneously being strongly correlated with both ρ and τ. The development is focused on situations where agreement over ordering is more important for top place getters than for those lower down the order as, for example, in subjectively judged Olympic events such as ice skating. The basic properties of the proposed coefficient are identified.     

Statistical methodology for binary data from a set of partially structured two-way random cross-classifications

A complete two-way cross-classification design is not practical in many settings. For example, in a toxicological study where 30 male rats are mated with 30 female rats and each mating outcome (successful or unsuccessful)is observed, time and resource considerations can make the use of the complete design prohibitively costly. Partially structured variations of this design are, therefore, of interest (e.g., the balanced disjoint rectangle design, the fully diagonal design, and the "S"-design). Methodology for analyzing binary data from such incomplete designs is illustrated with an example. This methodology, which is based on infinite population sampling arguments, allows the estimation of the mean response, among-row correlation coefficient, among-column correlation coefficient, and the within-cell correlation coefficient as well as their standard errors.     

Estimating correlation from dichotomized normal variables

Given dichotomized data from a bivariate normal distribution, the tetrachoric correlation coefficient provides a reasonable estimate of Pearson's correlation between the underlying variables. Greer et al. [2003. A Monte Carlo evaluation of the tetrachoric correlation coefficient. Educ. Psychol. Meas. 63, 931–950] suggested that this may be the case also under suitable transformations of the margins. As a complement to their work, this paper considers the estimation of Pearson's correlation between variables that are normal, but not jointly. A small Monte Carlo study is used to assess whether various approximations of the tetrachoric correlation coefficient could be helpful in this context. The results are encouraging, in terms of both bias and mean-square error.     

Confidence interval estimation for a linear contrast in intraclass correlation coefficients under unequal family sizes for several populations

Confidence intervals [based on F-distribution and (Z) standard normal distribution] for a linear contrast in intraclass correlation coefficients under unequal family sizes for several populations based on several independent multinormal samples have been proposed. It has been found that the confidence interval based on F-distribution consistently and reliably produced better results in terms of shorter average length of the interval than the confidence interval based on standard normal distribution for various combinations of intraclass correlation coefficient values. The coverage probability of the interval based on F-distribution is competitive with the coverage probability of the interval based on standard normal distribution. The interval based on F-distribution can be used for both small sample and large sample situations. An example with real life data has been presented.     

A WEIGHTED RANK MEASURE OF CORRELATION

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is not entirely suitable for measuring the correlation between two rankings in some applications because it treats all ranks equally. In 2000, Blest proposed an alternative measure of correlation that gives more importance to higher ranks but has some drawbacks. This paper proposes a weighted rank measure of correlation that weights the distance between two ranks using a linear function of those ranks, giving more importance to higher ranks than lower ones. It analyses its distribution and provides a table of critical values to test whether a given value of the coefficient is significantly different from zero. The paper also summarizes a number of applications for which the new measure is more suitable than Spearman's.     

A Measure of Dependence Between Two Compositions

We consider the problem of describing the correlation between two compositions. Using a bicompositional Dirichlet distribution, we calculate a joint correlation coefficient, based on the concept of information gain, between two compositions. Numerical values of the joint correlation coefficient are calculated for compositions of two and three components, respectively. We also present an estimator of the joint correlation coefficient for a sample from a bicompositional Dirichlet distribution. Two confidence intervals are presented and we examine their empirical confidence coefficients using a Monte Carlo study. Finally, we apply the estimator to a data set analysing the joint correlation between the 1967 and 1997, and the 1977 and 1997 compositions of the government gross domestic product for the 50 states of the USA and the District of Columbia.     

Interval Estimation for the Correlation Coefficient

ABSTRACT

The correlation coefficient (CC) is a standard measure of a possible linear association between two continuous random variables. The CC plays a significant role in many scientific disciplines. For a bivariate normal distribution, there are many types of confidence intervals for the CC, such as z-transformation and maximum likelihood-based intervals. However, when the underlying bivariate distribution is unknown, the construction of confidence intervals for the CC is not well-developed. In this paper, we discuss various interval estimation methods for the CC. We propose a generalized confidence interval for the CC when the underlying bivariate distribution is a normal distribution, and two empirical likelihood-based intervals for the CC when the underlying bivariate distribution is unknown. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the new intervals with existing intervals in terms of coverage probability and interval length. Finally, two real examples are used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methods.     

Sensitivity analysis of the unconfoundedness assumption with an application to an evaluation of college choice effects on earnings

We evaluate the effects of college choice on earnings using Swedish register databases. This case study is used to motivate the introduction of a novel procedure to analyse the sensitivity of such an observational study to the assumption made that there are no unobserved confounders – variables affecting both college choice and earnings. This assumption is not testable without further information, and should be considered an approximation of reality. To perform a sensitivity analysis, we measure the departure from the unconfoundedness assumption with the correlation between college choice and earnings when conditioning on observed covariates. The use of a correlation as a measure of dependence allows us to propose a standardised procedure by advocating the use of a fixed value for the correlation, typically 1% or 5%, when checking the sensitivity of an evaluation study. A correlation coefficient is, moreover, intuitive to most empirical scientists, which makes the results of our sensitivity analysis easier to communicate than those of previously proposed methods. In our evaluation of the effects of college choice on earnings, the significantly positive effect obtained could not be questioned by a sensitivity analysis allowing for unobserved confounders inducing at most 5% correlation between college choice and earnings.     

Estimating and Testing Nonlinear Local Dependence Between Two Time Series

ABSTRACT

The most common measure of dependence between two time series is the cross-correlation function. This measure gives a complete characterization of dependence for two linear and jointly Gaussian time series, but it often fails for nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, such as the ARCH-type models used in finance. The cross-correlation function is a global measure of dependence. In this article, we apply to bivariate time series the nonlinear local measure of dependence called local Gaussian correlation. It generally works well also for nonlinear models, and it can distinguish between positive and negative local dependence. We construct confidence intervals for the local Gaussian correlation and develop a test based on this measure of dependence. Asymptotic properties are derived for the parameter estimates, for the test functional and for a block bootstrap procedure. For both simulated and financial index data, we construct confidence intervals and we compare the proposed test with one based on the ordinary correlation and with one based on the Brownian distance correlation. Financial indexes are examined over a long time period and their local joint behavior, including tail behavior, is analyzed prior to, during and after the financial crisis. Supplementary material for this article is available online.