Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design,Demographics, and Hazard Experience

Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large‐casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado‐related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information‐seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information‐seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response.     

Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters,Public Officials,and Media Broadcasters in Boulder,Colorado

Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision‐focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals’ perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others’ decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system‐wide management of uncertainty in decisions.     

Online patient feedback as a safety valve: An automated language analysis of unnoticed and unresolved safety incidents

Safety reporting systems are widely used in healthcare to identify risks to patient safety. But, their effectiveness is undermined if staff do not notice or report incidents. Patients, however, might observe and report these overlooked incidents because they experience the consequences, are highly motivated, and independent of the organization. Online patient feedback may be especially valuable because it is a channel of reporting that allows patients to report without fear of consequence (e.g., anonymously). Harnessing this potential is challenging because online feedback is unstructured and lacks demonstrable validity and added value. Accordingly, we developed an automated language analysis method for measuring the likelihood of patient-reported safety incidents in online patient feedback. Feedback from patients and families (n = 146,685, words = 22,191,427, years = 2013–2019) about acute NHS trusts (hospital conglomerates; n = 134) in England were analyzed. The automated measure had good precision (0.69) and excellent recall (0.98) in identifying incidents; was independent of staff-reported incidents (r = −0.04 to 0.19); and was associated with hospital-level mortality rates (z = 3.87; p < 0.001). The identified safety incidents were often reported as unnoticed (89%) or unresolved (21%), suggesting that patients use online platforms to give visibility to safety concerns they believe have been missed or ignored. Online stakeholder feedback is akin to a safety valve; being independent and unconstrained it provides an outlet for reporting safety issues that may have been unnoticed or unresolved within formal channels.     

Don't Screw the Crew: Exploring the Rules of Engagement in Organizational Romance

Thirty years ago sociological research began to discover what workplace romance might mean for the participants. Since then management research has tended to adopt a functionalist approach, using survey methods, or third‐party approaches to ask about company policy and negative consequences of workplace romance, warning of the dangers and consequences of romance and offering solutions for managers on how to deal with this potential problem. Drawing on the sexuality of organization and critical literature, and adopting a position of constructivist structuralism with a qualitative research method, this research looks at how the concept of workplace romance is defined and negotiated within a public‐house setting. It examines the ‘rules of engagement’, the personal experiences and views of both managers and workers, as well as first‐hand stories of workplace romance. Romance was conceptualized as ‘natural’ and something that could not be legislated for, where unwritten rules were defined but often ignored. However, the ‘rules of engagement’ emerged as favouring particular groups depending on gender, position in the hierarchy and sexual identity. Subjective value judgements are made, often resting on gendered assumptions of male and female behaviour.     

The Relationship Between the Board of Directors and the Performance/Value Creation in a Context of Privatization: The Case of French Companies

The aim of this paper is to shed light on the cognitive as well as the disciplinary role of one important governance mechanism that is the board of directors in a privatization context. Using a sample of privatized French companies, we examine the relationship between the size, component and structure of this mechanism to the performance and value creation on the post privatization period. Thus, the majority of our findings have support on the theory of cognitive governance, one aspect of governance that was ignored in previous research.     

THE HUMAN SIDE OF MISTAKE‐PROOFING

Poka‐yoke (mistake‐proofing) is a powerful quality improvement approach, which usually employs relatively simple devices to achieve marked improvements. Inexpensive jigs, fixtures, switches, and gauges act as obvious environmental cues to signal mistake detection. Poka‐yoke has been largely ignored as an avenue for serious academic research. This paper provides scientific underpinning to the largely anecdotal mistake‐proofing literature, by drawing upon research from psychology and cognitive science concerning human error. We delineate areas where additional research would be worthwhile, and guide practitioners in understanding what they are trying to accomplish and how poka‐yoke devices attain this end.     

Dying for charisma: Leaders' inspirational appeal increases post-mortem

In the present research, we shed light on the nature and origins of charisma by examining changes in a person's perceived charisma that follow their death. We propose that death is an event that will strengthen the connection between the leader and the group they belong to, which in turn will increase perceptions of leaders' charisma. In Study 1, results from an experimental study show that a scientist who is believed to be dead is regarded as more charismatic than the same scientist believed to be alive. Moreover, this effect was accounted for by people's perceptions that the dead scientist's fate is more strongly connected with the fate of the groups that they represent. In Study 2, a large-scale archival analysis of Heads of States who died in office in the 21st century shows that the proportion of published news items about Heads of State that include references to charisma increases significantly after their death. These results suggest that charisma is, at least in part, a social inference that increases after death. Moreover, they suggest that social influence and inspiration can be understood as products of people's capacity to embody valued social groups.     

Reducing Absenteeism and Rescheduling Among Grocery Store Employees With Point-Contingent Rewards

The purpose of this research was to evaluate a reward program designed to reduce absenteeism among staff (N = 38) at a grocery store. The intervention included public feedback and a credit reward system whereby participants got store dollars for attendance and authorized rescheduling of work assignments. Results showed that absenteeism decreased from a group mean of 8 shifts missed per week during baseline to 4.25 shifts missed per week during the intervention before increasing to 6.75 shifts missed per week during the reversal phase. The mean total rescheduling occurrences were reduced from a baseline average of 19.83 per week to 9.25 per week during the intervention and returned to 22.25 per week during the reversal. Employees were also less likely to leave early during the intervention period.     

Evidence on the Superiority of Analysts Quarterly Earnings Forecasts for Small Capitalization Firms*

Financial analysts provide information to support investment analysis and decisions for an ever increasing number of firms. As part of their services they also produce earnings forecasts for covered firms. While there has been much research investigating the determinants of financial analyst earnings forecast superiority for large, widely-followed firms, little research has focused on smaller firms. Until recently, these smaller firms have been largely ignored. This study focuses exclusively on small firms and provides evidence of differing behavior for such firms compared to results previously reported for large firms. Errors in quarterly earnings per share forecasts of small firms obtained from a univariate time-series model are also examined. Regression results indicate that time-series model parameters possess information content with respect to forecast accuracy for analyst-covered firms only. These results are obtained after controlling for firm size, model adequacy, and industry, quarter, and year effects. This suggests that analysts are more likely to cover small firms for which they are able to decipher information correlated with that impounded in the “shocks” in the quarterly earnings time series as captured by the time-series model parameters.     

Expecting the Unexpected: Predicting Physiological and Psychological Wildfire Preparedness from Perceived Risk,Responsibility, and Obstacles

People who live in wildfire‐prone communities tend to form their own hazard‐related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy‐based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural hazard: Perceived risk (i.e., perceived threat likelihood and severity) and perceived protection responsibility. We expanded this research by differentiating the influence of these factors on different types of wildfire preparedness (e.g., preparations for evacuation vs. for defending the house) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat‐related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire. A survey completed by 1,003 residents of wildfire‐prone areas in Perth, Australia, revealed that perceived risk (especially risk severity) and perceived protection responsibility were both positively associated with all types of preparedness, but the latter did not significantly predict preparedness after controlling for other predictors and demographics. Also, the two new expectancy‐based factors were significantly associated with all types of preparedness, and remained significant predictors of some types of preparedness after controlling for other predictors and demographics: the expectation of being able to rely on an official fire warning and expecting to lose electricity both still predicted less preparedness around house resilience, and expecting to lose water still predicted increased planning preparedness. We discuss public policy implications that follow from this research.     

False Alarms and Missed Events: The Impact and Origins of Perceived Inaccuracy in Tornado Warning Systems

Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow‐up question—Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are—in part—a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued.     

Rap and the Recording Industry

Nothing in the music industry has been more controversial than so‐called gangsta rap. This article examines the behavior of the major recording labels involved with rap music, and how they have responded to calls from the minority community and various politicians to clean up the offensive lyrics associated with the genre. In large part, the companies have basically ignored their critics and continued to market gangsta rap because for years it had been so highly profitable. Their basic tactic has been to diffuse responsibility and distance themselves from rap by allowing subsidiaries to handle that part of the business. The industry's behavior is certainly troubling. I argue that, at the very least, the companies should have met the “moral minimum” to avoid harm and correct social injuries by censoring certain lyrics. Unfortunately this never occurred, and, in the end, only declining sales appear to have had any mitigating effects on gangsta rap.     

Flash Flood Awareness in Southwest Virginia

Flash floods are one of the most dangerous weather-related natural disasters in the world. These events develop less than six hours after a rainfall event and create hazardous situations for people and extensive damage to property. It is critical for flash flood conditions to be warned of in a timely manner to minimize impacts. There is currently a knowledge gap between flood experts and the general public about the level of perceived risk that the latter has toward the powerful flood waters and how events should be warned of, which affects the communication capabilities and efficiency of the warning process. Prior research has addressed risk perception of natural disasters, but there is little emphasis on flash floods within flood-prone regions of the United States. This research utilizes an online survey of 300 respondents to determine the current state of flash flood awareness and preparation in southwest Virginia. Analysis of trends involved the use of chi-squared tests (chi2) and simple frequency and percentage calculations. Results reveal that a knowledge base of flash floods does exist, but is not advanced enough for proper awareness. Young adults have a lower understanding and are not as concerned about flood impacts. Increased exposure and perceived risk play a key role in shaping the way a person approaches flash floods. People do monitor flood events, but they are unaware of essential guidance and communication mechanisms. Finally, results suggest that the current method of warning about flash floods is not provided at an appropriate level of detail for effective communication.     

The Culture–Performance Relationship in M&A: From Yes/No to How

Do cultural differences have an impact on the performance of M&A? Despite the widely accepted myth that they do, and in a negative way, a review of extant research provides contradictory findings. In this article, we explore reasons for this contradiction and propose solutions in the form of propositions and a theoretical framework. We begin with a brief overview of extant research on the culture‐performance relationship in M&A. In light of the contradictions emerging from this review, we move on to identifying three areas of complexity explaining this confusion, and for each one, we suggest propositions to guide future research. We then summarize our argument using a theoretical framework. Because of the long‐term and dynamic nature of the M&A process, we argue that instead of studying the simple performance impact of cultural differences in M&A, we should move on to thinking how cultural differences impact on the M&A process and its outcome.     

Setting tolerance limits for statistical project control using earned value management

Project control has been a research topic since decades that attracts both academics and practitioners. Project control systems indicate the direction of change in preliminary planning variables compared with actual performance. In case their current project performance deviates from the planned performance, a warning is indicated by the system in order to take corrective actions.Earned value management/earned schedule (EVM/ES) systems have played a central role in project control, and provide straightforward key performance metrics that measure the deviations between planned and actual performance in terms of time and cost. In this paper, a new statistical project control procedure sets tolerance limits to improve the discriminative power between progress situations that are either statistically likely or less likely to occur under the project baseline schedule. In this research, the tolerance limits are derived from subjective estimates for the activity durations of the project. Using the existing and commonly known EVM/ES metrics, the resulting project control charts will have an improved ability to trigger actions when variation in a project׳s progress exceeds certain predefined thresholdsA computational experiment has been set up to test the ability of these statistical project control charts to discriminate between variations that are either acceptable or unacceptable in the duration of the individual activities. The computational experiments compare the use of statistical tolerance limits with traditional earned value management thresholds and validate their power to report warning signals when projects tend to deviate significantly from the baseline schedule.     

Brief case: managing inputs

Jane Carmichael's views on Managing Inputs provide a further interesting contribution on a topic, strategic control, that we have covered on several occasions in this column. Carmichael's approach is to dig back behind the results being achieved to the 'inputs' on which they depend. But, while this may unearth causes of performance that can often be missed by a bottom-line orientation, results must ultimately remain vital; a business that is on track with all its input measures, but is missing its output goal is still in trouble. We continue to be interested in hearing from readers with views on strategic control processes, particularly those who have found productive ways of setting input and output targets.     

Metaphors and Theory Building in Organization Theory: What Determines the Impact of a Metaphor on Theory?*

A long‐standing stream of organizational research suggests that our ability to theorize and reason about organizations is significantly influenced by metaphorical representations of organizations. This study contributes to this research stream by examining how different metaphors influence theory development and academic thinking about organizations. We asked scholars from UK business schools to rate different metaphors in terms of their impact on theory building. We then examined whether, and to what extent, these metaphors (after they had been selected) had helped in clarifying and advancing their understanding of organizations. The results indicate that the ability of a metaphor to advance and clarify theoretical understandings of organizations is based upon (1) the degree to which that metaphor is seen to capture multiple salient features of organizations and (2) the ease with which the metaphor is understood. We discuss the implications of these results for theorizing and research on organizations.     

A Review of Political Skill: Current Research Trend and Directions for Future Research

This paper reviews theoretical and empirical research on the use of political skill in organizations and proposes some agendas for future research. Although political skill is a relatively new construct in organizational politics research, a large number of theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted. Five major themes were identified in previous research. These are: (a) definition and measurement of political skill; (b) political skill and stress management; (c) political skill and career success; (d) political skill and individual performance; and (e) political skill and leadership effectiveness. This review critically examines previous empirical studies in light of this theoretical background and points out that, although previous empirical studies support the theoretically assumed effects of political skills, they fail to confirm how and why these skills bring about these effects. Based on this examination, the author suggests the examination of mediators and dimensional differences derived from theory that can lead to more effective exploration of the impact of political skill. In addition, several issues for future research are proposed, which may provide useful insights for both literature and practice.     

Managing Culture at British Airways: Hype, Hope and Reality

Nearly twenty years after the publication of the (in)famous In Search of Excellence, the notion of ‘cultural change’ within organisations continues to excite attention. This is readily understandable, since cultural interventions offer practitioners the hope of a universal panacea to organisational ills and academics an explanatory framework that enjoys the virtues of being both partially true and gloriously simple. Such a combination is apparent in the way that many attempts to shape organisational culture are presented to the public: as simple stories with happy endings.¹ This article attempts to rescue a fairy-tale. The story of British Airways is one of the most widely used inspirational accounts of changing culture. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s it was used to demonstrate the necessary compatibility of pleasure and profits² in celebratory accounts where culture change is presented as the only explanation for the transformation that occurred. This corrective makes no attempt to deny the very substantial changes that took place in BA. Rather, it sets these in context noting the organisation’s environment at the time of the transformation, the structural changes that took place and observes the impact that such changes had over the long term. ^{[3], [4] and [5]}Today, nearly twenty years after the publication of the (in)famous In Search of Excellence, the notion of ‘cultural change’ within organisations continues to excite attention. This continuing attraction is readily understood, since cultural interventions offer practitioners the hope of a universal panacea to organisational ills and academics an explanatory framework that enjoys the virtues of being both partially true and gloriously simple. Such a combination is apparent in the way that many attempts to shape organisational culture are presented to the public: as simple stories with happy endings.To a certain extent, of course, any form of narration encourages a story, an ending, and, as a result, a simplification—and stories may be used to shed light on attitudes and understandings not otherwise easily available to the researcher. But there is a very significant difference between listening to the accounts that individuals tell in order to make sense of their lives and allowing the study of the workplace to become ‘fictionalised’. The former involves engaging with the ‘subjects’ of the research, attempting to understand their world view and allowing them a voice in the process they are participating in. The latter can mean a selective reading of the data with examples chosen because they illustrate pre-set conclusions.In management particularly the capacity of writers to turn case studies into celebratory fictions is worrying. As Marchington argues, too many texts focus on “fairy tales and magic wands”.⁶ Such an emphasis encourages the belief that what is important in the workplace is not context, structure, power, economics or industrial relations but whatever new initiative management have chosen to introduce (the “magic wands”). The form that this magic takes varies from intervention to intervention but the impact claimed for each is curiously similar, with unproductive workplaces turned around and reluctant employees transformed into enthusiasts. Any changes that take place are seen to be a direct result of the magic and most are exaggerated. As a result, research into management becomes research into a series of fads and fashions with Total Quality Management or Business Process Re-engineering or empowerment or culture vying for attention. Every intervention is presented as new, so academic understanding of the workplace starts afresh each time a guru develops a new magic wand. Lessons cannot be carried forward since BPR is not employee involvement and company culture is not TQM. Elements of the workplace that might have provided a crucial element of continuity are ignored or dismissed as unimportant since only change is magical. As a result, by relying on these accounts, we understand less and less about why organisations function in the way that they do and practitioners are encouraged to believe that each initiative starts with a blank sheet, entirely unconstrained by what has gone before.Accordingly, in this article we attempt to rescue a fairy-tale. The story of British Airways is one of the most widely used inspirational accounts of changing culture. Throughout the 80s and 90s it was used to demonstrate the necessary compatibility of pleasure and profits. In such celebratory accounts, culture change is presented as the only explanation for the transformation that occurred. This corrective makes no attempt to deny the very substantial changes that took place in BA. Rather, it sets these in context noting the organisation’s environment at the time of the transformation, the structural changes that took place and observing the impact that such changes had over the long term.⁷     

Scientific method and the environmental scene: the need for an experimenting,evolving society

The idea is abroad that there is a technique, called the scientific method, which solves problems: this is a fallacy: and there is no certainty that solutions are even possible. Malthus's warning was correct and growth of population and consumption is now almost out of control. Evolutionary mechanisms have been stultified so that they no longer guarantee the creation of higher forms, and the variety on which it thrives has been destroyed. Planners plan as if they were planning the result of an election instead of merely the election itself. They do not understand freedom nor its value for a healthy society. Instead they have organised the proliferation of the illiterate and the unemployed.