The role of immigration in Canada's demographic outlook

Canada's contemporary demographic profile has been profoundly influenced by the end of the baby boom, decline in the fertility rate, ageing of the population and prospects for an absolute decline in population shortly after the turn of the century.
These demographic characteristics necessitate an enhanced role for immigration and the need for a more proactive immigration policy in order to correct and fine-tune demographic trends and to come to grips with the social and economic challenges and opportunities of the next few decades.
The expanded role of multicultural immigration conveys a sense of urgency in terms of exploring and anticipating the economic and social costs and advantages related to immigration that are decidedly more multicultural and multiracial in composition.
Canada's immigration policy will require a realignment of economic and social policies as well as cultural and linguistic programmes in view of the multicultural composition of family dependents, business and entrepreneurial immigrants and refugee movements.     

Income Adequacy and Social Security Differences Between the Foreign‐Born and U.S.‐Born1

This paper projects retirement income and Social Security taxes and benefits among the foreign‐born and U.S.‐born in the United States. Focusing on the Depression and the late baby boom birth cohorts, we find that foreign‐born persons have higher poverty rates than the U.S.‐born, and as a group do not receive higher lifetime net benefits from Social Security than do the U.S.‐born. However, persons from the late baby boom cohort who immigrated after 1969 have higher projected rates of return in Social Security than do U.S.‐born persons of the same birth cohort.     

The nonprofit leadership deficit: A case for more optimism

Recent headlines claim that a looming nonprofit leadership crisis will soon be precipitated by retiring baby boomers. Analysis of baby boom demographics, using national census data on the age distribution and other demographic characteristics of top leaders by sector, confirms the aging nonprofit workforce. However, the issue of whether the aging workforce portends a nonprofit leadership crisis, when analyzed within a theoretical framework of supply and demand in the market for nonprofit executives, reveals flaws in most commentaries about the leadership crisis. Workings of the labor market and nonprofit organizations themselves suggest trends that could be expected to affect labor supply and demand and mitigate a leadership deficit. Reasonable—and likely—market and organizational adjustments, including higher executive pay, increased labor force participation of older workers, skill acquisition of younger workers, possible consolidation of nonprofit organizations, board and volunteer skill sharing, and even venture philanthropy, can be expected to moderate the shock of baby boom retirements, much in the way that schools, job markets, and housing markets have accommodated the movement of this “bulging” generation through earlier decades of their lives.     

Housing price, elderly dependency and fertility behaviour

Sustaining declines in fertility have increasingly become an alarming issue in most of the world economies. Many governments have been making enormous efforts to alleviate such intertwined problems as falling fertility and soaring elderly dependency. What really makes fertility rates fall? Does housing price have a role (as many argue)? Most researchers addressed this issue from a demographic perspective, but have yet to fully unravel the mystery of human fertility behaviour. The paper aims to investigate the novel linkages between birth rate, housing price and elderly dependency, with the case of Hong Kong. It employs two key methods: (i) the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to co-integration procedure and (ii) Granger causality, to disentangle the complicated relationships, long-run and short-run. The empirical results show that a 1 percent increase in housing prices and elderly leads to 0.52% and 1.65% decreases in birth rate respectively. Besides, both housing price and elderly dependency Granger cause birth rate in the long-run. Our findings not only shed light on fertility behaviour, but also provide implications for policy change. That is particularly relevant to those economies whose low fertility situations need to be ameliorated.     

Issues in the demography of Mongolian nomadic pastoralism

"Taking a historical perspective this paper examines the ecological and political influences on Mongolian demography. Changes in political policy, domestic economy, health services, venereal diseases and shortages of men are considered in examining the unusual pattern of very low fertility, followed by a rise in the 1950s and 1960s and a gradual fertility decline, even in the absence of modern contraception. It is concluded that the lack of simultaneity between major political and demographic changes suggest that there are no direct responses to policy, despite the strong pronatalist stance, but that health services, particularly in the realms of venereal disease treatment, have had a major influence on Mongolian demographic patterns. The indirect consequences of government policy--education, health services in rural areas, rapid urbanisation--appear to have a stronger influence than the pronatalism, and ironically have led to rapid fertility decline."     

Baby booming inequality? Demographic change and earnings inequality in Norway, 1967�C2000

In this paper, we demonstrate how age-adjusted inequality measures can be used to evaluate whether changes in inequality over time are due to changes in the age-structure. To this end, we use administrative data on earnings for every male Norwegian over the period 1967–2000. We find that the substantial rise in earnings inequality over the 1980s and into the early 1990s, is to some extent driven by the fact that the large baby boom cohorts are approaching the peak of the age–earnings profile. We further demonstrate that the impact of age-adjustments on the trend in inequality during the period 1993–2000 is highly sensitive to the method used: While the most widely used age-adjusted inequality measure indicates little change in inequality over this period, a new and improved age-adjusted measure suggests a decline in inequality.     

Child-care burden and intentions to have a second child: effects of perceived justice in the division of child-care

Fertility rates have fallen dramatically in Western Europe during the last 50 years. Initially explanations were tied to women taking on work obligations and choosing to reduce their fertility. But this explanation is no longer valid in Western Europe because those countries where women are least likely to work, the Mediterranean countries, are also among the countries with the lowest fertility rates. A more recent explanation rests on the availability of child-care; for example, Sweden and France have universal child-care and fertility rates near replacement. Much of this discussion has focused on socio-political conditions and structural explanations outside of the family, e.g. state policies and programs to support working mothers, as well as institutional models of the family as a breadwinner family or as a non-breadwinner family (cf. McDonald 2000a). Clearly there have been many important changes in this area. But, perhaps, even more important to understanding fertility decisions may be what is happening to interpersonal relationships within the couple. One aspect of this decision which has not been fully explored is an understanding of the perceived justice of the couple situation after the birth of the first child and its impact on the decision for a second child. This research will review the concept of justice, with a focus on justice in the division of child-care, and indicate how it can be used to understand a woman's fertility plans after the birth of the first child.     

Low birthweight: Do unwed fathers help?

Previous studies have revealed that marital status is an important predictor of birth outcomes, with unmarried mothers having a higher probability than married mothers of delivering low birthweight babies. However, research on the impact of different mother-father relationships among unwed parents is virtually non-existent and little is known about whether and how father involvement affects birth outcomes. In this study, we use the sample of unwed parents in the 7-cities baseline Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing data to examine the effects of parents' relationship status and support provided by the baby's father during pregnancy on the likelihood of delivering a low birthweight baby, and to examine whether father involvement explains racial and ethnic disparities in low birthweight. We include several variables that past studies have suggested may be important in explaining birth outcomes but generally have not been able to include, such as mother's social support, her attitudes and values, and her religiosity. We find that having received monetary support from the baby's father has a negative effect on the likelihood of low birthweight and that mothers who are in a non-cohabiting romantic relationship with the father have significantly higher odds of low birthweight compared to mothers who cohabit with the father of their baby. Finally, racial ethnic differences in birth outcomes within this population appear to be invariant to the level of father involvement. A major contribution of the study is that it uses rich new data to examine birth outcomes in a population at high risk—unmarried mothers—and incorporates measures such as parents' relationship status and father's financial support, along with an extensive set of demographic, social, and behavioral risk factors.     

Changes in Americans’ Views of Prayer and Reading the Bible in Public Schools: Time Periods,Birth Cohorts,and Religious Traditions

I use repeated cross‐sectional survey data spanning the years 1974 to 2010 to examine changes in Americans’ views of prayer and reading the Bible in public schools. Results from logistic regression models show that support for prayer and reading the Bible in public schools was relatively high in the 1970s and that differences between evangelical Protestants and both Catholics and mainline Protestants grew from the 1970s to the first decade of the twenty‐first century. Hierarchical age‐period‐cohort models demonstrate that changes in support for school prayer are due to both period and birth cohort changes, that baby boom cohorts are relatively likely to oppose prayer and reading the Bible in school, and that growing differences in support for prayer and reading the Bible in school between evangelical Protestants and both Catholics and mainline Protestants are predominantly due to changes across birth cohorts. Although religious liberals and conservatives have become more alike in many ways, evangelical Protestants have diverged from affiliates of other major religious traditions in their support for prayer in public schools. These results are relevant to debates regarding the social impact of religious affiliation, generational differences, and Americans’ views of the role of religion in the public sphere.     

Analyzing birth intervals: Implications for demographic theory and data collection

In the last decade, the study of birth intervals has been greatly facilitated by a rapid expansion in data availability and by improvements in analytical techniques. Unfortunately, the results emerging from individual level, empirical studies of birth interval dynamics do not correspond with the predictions of standard demographic theory. This paper reviews a series of individual level studies that find substantial socioeconomic variation in childspacing after controlling statistically for the major intermediate or proximate variables. It then offers possible explanations for the lack of fit between theory and results at the micro level, concluding that the two most likely explanations are poor measurement of the four principal proximate determinants and the exclusion of additional proximate determinants.     

Could Refugees Have a Significant Impact on the Future Demographic Change of Serbia?

Serbia still hosts the largest number of forced migrants in Europe. The paper examines the impact of the refugee influx from newly formed states on the territory of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) into Serbia on the future demographic trends of the country. Examination of the past population projections of Serbia confirmed that the process of predicting migration flows is related to the greatest source of uncertainty compared to all other components of demographic change. The results of our projection of Serbia’s population through 2050 show that the large influx of refugees during the last decade of the 20th century should not have a significant impact on the future demographic change of Serbia. Even in the case of substantial improvement of total fertility rate (2.35 in final projection year, comparing to current 1.55), no positive demographic effect should be experienced. Continuation of the decline in Serbia’s total population size cannot be offset by recent refugee influx for several reasons. The most important of them are: too small number of migrants comparing to the total population size of Serbia; similarity in fertility behaviour between refugee and indigenous population; the large‐scaled emigration during the same period; much older refugee population compared to emigrant population; and the processes of refugee repatriation and resettlement. A purely hypothetical projection variant assuming the migration required to maintain the size of current total population size of Serbia until 2050 points out the need for almost three times the amount of average annual migration surplus caused by the refugee influx.     

Adopted Persons' Search for and Contact with Their Birth Parents I

ABSTRACT

This article presents a critical review of different lines of empirical research on adopted persons' search for their birth parents and identifies questions and issues that are in need of further study. The review covers research on the demographic and psychological characteristics of searchers and their motives for searching. Research findings are also used to evaluate the validity of three different theoretical frameworks that have been offered as explanations for why adopted persons search for their birth parents.     

Recent Trends in Canadian Fertility*

Depuis 1941, on a observe au Canada des variations importantes du niveau de la fecondite et la tendance est souvent illustree par les fluctuations du taux de natalite. Afin de mieux interpreter ces fluctuations, une analyse des principales composantes du taux de natalite s'avere necessaire: la distribution par age de la population feminine (mariee ou de tout etat matrimonial) et les taux de fecondite par age tant pour les femmes mariees que pour l'ensemble des femmes. C'est la baisse de la fecondite legitime qui est en majeure partie la cause de la chute du taux de natalite observee depuis 1959. Pour approfondir l'analyse, on etablit une comparaison entre des indices de fecondite legitime de cohorte et du moment. De 1946 a 1960, les indices du moment sont nettement plus eleves que ceux de cohorte; cependant contrairement a ce qui s'est passe au cours de cette periode, on observe maintenant un etalement des intervalles entre naissances, de telle sorte que depuis 1960, les indices du moment sont nettement plus faibles que les indices de fecondite legitime de cohorte.
Observers have witnessed important changes in the level of fertility in Canada since 1941. The trend is often illustrated by variations in the birth rate. To understand these variations better, the main components of the birth rate will be analysed: age distribution of total and married female population, and age-specific fertility rates for all women and married women. The decline of marital fertility is mostly responsible for the fall of the birth rate observed since 1959. In a further analysis, period and cohort marital fertility are compared: from 1946 to 1960, period measures were much higher than cohort measures; in contrast to what happened during those years we now observe a spread in birth intervals, so that, since 1960, period measures are much lower than cohort marital fertility measures.     

Migration from Latin American countries to the United States: the economic,social and reproductive lives of Hispanic female immigrants, 1980

The authors describe the socioeconomic characteristics and fertility patterns of female immigrants from Latin America to the United States, with a focus on reasons for fertility differentials. "Using the one per cent public use sample from the 1970 and 1980 United States census, we first compare changes in socio economic characteristics from 1970 to 1980, and then examine the determinants of fertility of female immigrants to the United States, aged 16-49, from four Latin American areas or countries of birth.... The findings...suggest that there are direct effects of demographic, assimilation, and socioeconomic variables beyond those mediated by the variables in each of these sets. Further, regardless of the model, the effect of the clusters of demographic characteristics is most apparent. Age categories and marital status are the strongest indexed determinants of immigrant fertility.... The effect of education and employment is strong. Among assimilation variables, duration of residence and language ability are significant determinants of Hispanic immigrant fertility." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

The changing impact of sustenance organization activities on non-metropolitan net migration

The effects of the changing spatial distribution of the population in the United States are examined. "Hypotheses concerning the changing relationship of sustenance organization components and nonmetropolitan net migration rates between the 1960s and 1970s are tested. Multiple regression analysis reveals the following changes in the demographic impact of five types of economic activity from the 1960s to the 1970s: manufacturing--positive to insignificant; agriculture and mining--negative to positive; service--positive effect increases; and retail--insignificant for both periods." The author notes that "the introduction of settlement pattern characteristics as control variables does not change these relationships. The [R squared] for all the sustenance activity variables taken as a whole is 21 percent for 1960 and six percent for 1970, suggesting that alternatives to the traditional explanations of nonmetropolitan demographic change should be more fully developed."     

TOWARD A SYNTHESIS OF FEMINIST AND DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES ON FERTILITY

In explaining fertility and reproduction and emerging patterns of childbearing, both demographers and feminists have centered their thinking on women's status (economic and social), women's changing roles and life experiences (increased labor force participation, increased availability of reproductive options, declining marriage rates in many parts of the industrialized world, and the centrality of women to development), and women as agents in micro- and macrolevel changes in family, fertility, and economic change. Although demography has recently begun to integrate feminist perspectives into fertility explanations, there is not yet a synthesis of feminist theoretical insights with demographic questions. Drawing from recent thinking on global and national political and policy challenges in the less and more developed worlds, to the epistemological shifts in knowledge of reproduction/mothering, to changes in the technologies of reproduction, this article moves toward an integration of feminist and demographic perspectives on fertility.
…far from the economic dependence of women working in the interests of motherhood, it is the steadily acting cause of a pathological maternity and a declining birthrate.
Charlotte Perkins Stetson, Women and Economics , 1899     

The reproductive revolution

We suggest that a third revolution alongside the better known economic and political ones has been vital to the rise of modernity: the reproductive revolution, comprising a historically unrepeatable shift in the efficiency of human reproduction which for the first time brought demographic security. As well as highlighting the contribution of demographic change to the rise of modernity and addressing the limitations of orthodox theories of the demographic transition, the concept of the reproductive revolution offers a better way to integrate sociology and demography. The former has tended to pay insufficient heed to sexual reproduction, individual mortality and the generational replacement of population, while the latter has undervalued its own distinctive theoretical contribution, portraying demographic change as the effect of causes lying elsewhere. We outline a theory of the reproductive revolution, review some relevant supporting empirical evidence and briefly discuss its implications both for demographic transition theory itself, and for a range of key social changes that we suggest it made possible: the decline of patriarchy and feminisation of the public sphere, the deregulation and privatisation of sexuality, family change, the rise of identity, 'low' fertility and 'population ageing'.     

Beyond a Strong State and Docile Women Reproductive choices,state policy and skewed sex ratio in South Korea

The rapid decrease in South Korea's fertility rate since the 1960s has often been noted as an extraordinary case of a demographic transition due to an extremely successful state population policy. This common observation fails to address how women actively and deliberately negotiated with different kinds of authorities within social and material constraints. The two most glaring examples of women's agency in reproductive decision making are (1) the consistently high abortion rate in a country where abortion has never been legal and (2) the persistent boy preference. The persistent boy preference combined with sex discerning technology, which became readily available in the 1980s, produced a skewed sex ratio at birth. Using Guttentag and Secord's theoretical model, this article explores how a broad range of cultural norms relating to women's roles, marriageable age, ethnic exogamy/endogamy and homosexuality will be affected when the birth cohorts of twenty years with the skewed sex ratio begin to enter the marriage market. This article also suggests a different way of thinking about the issues of women's reproductive behavior and state control. Population research often overlooks the thinking processes of individual women, and consequently misses how women negotiate with complex local conditions. This article discusses women' s reasoning and decision-making processes, their world views and values and dynamics within their intimate environments. Oftentimes women's own accounts defy clichéd understanding and popular imaginations.     

Modernization and the Demographic Transition: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of a Revised Model

Abstract

We specify a revised model of the demographic transition which accounts for national fertility levels and changes over the past two decades. The model includes cultural, geographic, demographic and family planning program variables, in addition to a measure of national socio-economic modernization. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, we operationalize and then apply the revised model to 1974 rates, and then test a longitudinal model of 1955–59 to 1974 change in rates. A final model for 81 less developed nations from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning program effort. Including this highly significant measure in a model of 1955–59 to 1974 change results in further evidence favoring modification of the traditional demographic transition model. Implications for the future course of fertility in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Beyond the body: an emerging medical paradigm

As with so many other aspects of American society, the baby boom may be the catalytic factor that ultimately changes the way we treat our health.