乡镇人口生育意愿现状——以菏泽市乡镇人口为例

根据菏泽市乡镇人口生育意愿调查问卷数据,分析了该市乡镇人口的生育意愿现状.调查结果表明:菏泽市乡镇人口意愿生育子女数为1.54,低于更替水平;性别偏好不明显;意愿结婚和生育时间推迟;生育目的也发生了转变.据此提出:国家应在生育政策与生育权益、家庭保障间平衡统筹,进行适当调整.     

三孩背景下我国生育支持政策评价——基于十个城市社区的调查分析

在我国当前人口负增长的背景下,优化生育支持政策对于提高生育率、改善人口结构具有十分重要的意义。本文选取了十个城市社区,对其全面三孩政策及其配套生育支持体系进行了分析和评价。结果发现：生育补贴覆盖面窄且待遇水平有限、生育保险覆盖率低、产假和育儿假等生育休假制度落实存在困难、托幼服务需求难以满足、面向多子女家庭的住房支持政策有待完善等。基于研究结论,提出了进一步完善生育支持政策的相关政策建议。     

生育意愿影响因素分析

影响生育意愿有三大因素。一是国家人口政策、经济情况、传统文化、生产方式、社会保障制度、就业形势与就业水平等社会因素。二是家庭习俗与传统、抚养子女的成本和子女给家庭提供的收入、是否独生子女等家庭因素。三是户口性质、性别、年龄、职业、文化程度、生育与婚姻状况、现有子女数及现有子女性别、健康状况、是否外出打工等个人因素。     

生育意愿影响因素分析

影响生育意愿有三大因素。一是国家人口政策、经济情况、传统文化、生产方式、社会保障制度、就业形势与就业水平等社会因素。二是家庭习俗与传统、抚养子女的成本和子女给家庭提供的收入、是否独生子女等家庭因素。三是户口性质、性别、年龄、职业、文化程度、生育与婚姻状况、现有子女数及现有子女性别、健康状况、是否外出打工等个人因素。     

人力资本、预期寿命与推迟生育——基于四期OLG模型的理论与实证

推迟生育已是当前包括中国在内的中高收入国家人口变化的一个突出特点。本文通过构建一个家庭行为决策的四期OLG局部均衡模型,并利用效用比较分析方法,从理论上探讨了人力资本和预期寿命对推迟生育的影响。同时还利用23个国家1980-2014年的面板数据进行了实证检验,实证结果与理论结论一致。结论表明：人力资本投资成本上升、代际间的平均工资增长率下降以及预期寿命越长会使家庭选择推迟生育。此外,本文还分析了政府补贴政策对推迟生育的影响,分析表明：对生育子女补贴会使家庭更愿意生育子女,但对生育时期选择没有影响;对人力资本投资进行补贴,会降低人力资本投资成本,从而使家庭延缓推迟生育。     

关于我国生育政策与生育水平的几点思考

通过回顾梳理现存文献和进行国际比较认为,中国的总和生育率已经大大低于更替水平,且现行生育政策仅能有效控制大约6%的育龄妇女。在低生育水平已持续了近20年、理想子女数大约仅为2个孩子、现行生育政策对个体生育行为的控制作用大大减弱的情势下,未来维持低生育水平主要取决于经济社会的发展。只要能够有效控制各类人群的第三胎生育,推行现行生育政策与＂放宽二孩、杜绝三孩＂的生育政策之间差别就不会大;而如果超生是某些人的特权,就既会大大降低生育政策的公信力,也不利于稳定适度的低生育水平。     

“全面两孩”政策下育龄女性的生育行为与家庭幸福感——从生育服务和托幼资源视角的观察

随着人口老龄化程度不断加深,长期低生育水平已经与国家经济社会发展的需要不相适应,文章基于2016年中国家庭幸福感热点问题调查数据,分析了生育服务、托幼资源、二孩生育等及其与育龄女性家庭幸福感的关系,发现:育龄女性对于医院生育服务的评价与其家庭幸福感之间具有正向相关关系;三岁以下子女的日常照料对育龄女性家庭幸福感影响显著,孩子主要由自己照顾时,29岁以下育龄女性的家庭幸福感最高,孩子主要由托幼机构照料时,30³9岁育龄女性的家庭幸福感最高;接受过高等教育的城市3039岁育龄女性的家庭幸福感最高;接受过高等教育的城市30³9岁育龄女性是2016年生育二孩和已经怀孕即将生育二孩的突出人群,她们对优质生育服务和妇幼保健服务的需求强烈。研究建议:为充分挖掘"全面两孩"政策的生育促进作用,国家、政府和社会亟需为育龄女性特别是为高龄孕产妇家庭提供数量更充分和质量更优的生育服务和托幼资源。     

新生代农民工对子女的教育选择及应对策略研究

与第一代农民工对子女的教育选择相比较,新生代农民工对子女的教育选择主要有3种:让子女随迁入城接受教育、让子女留守农村接受教育和让子女流动往返于城乡之间接受教育。从发展趋势来看,新生代农民工更倾向于选择让其子女随迁入城接受教育。这一选择倾向主要受到四大因素的影响:新生代农民工外出务工经历及其市民化诉求的影响、新生代农民工与父辈在家庭中的代际分工和家庭经济收入构成的影响、农村学校布局调整后教育空间压缩的影响和生育政策实施以及新生代农民工生育观念转变所导致的生源减少的客观影响。新生代农民工对子女的教育选择困境与城乡社会发展阶段密切相关,对此,应从城乡社会发展一体化的高度统筹安排。     

农村独女户生育意愿与动机的变化--宜昌市调查报告

根据“宜昌市农村独女户家庭生育意愿与行为研究”专题调研获得的有关数据 ,讨论分析了该市农村独女户家庭群体生育意愿与生育动机的构成 ,揭示这一特殊群体在生育数量、性别偏好、生育时间与间隔、优生等方面的意愿、态度、知识与行为的变化 ,以及在生育上将家庭幸福和对社会的责任结合起来的开明、进步思想。调查结果反映出农民群众的生育意愿、生育动机和生育观念开始向现代文明进步方向转变     

江苏居民生育意愿和生育政策敏感性研究

为探究不同群体的生育意愿和对生育政策的敏感性,本文以江苏省18～50岁居民为调查对象,通过问卷调查收集了被调查者基本信息、生育基本情况、个人生育意愿、对生育政策的态度等内容,并采用多元有序逻辑回归和基于主成分的聚类分析展开研究。逻辑回归主要结果显示,年龄越大、已有子女个数越多的群体对“双减”、托管服务等政策的支持度越高;工作时长越长的人更希望推行托管服务、延长男性产假;工作时间越长、已有子女数和理想子女数较多的群体更希望减少过度加班。聚类结果表明,若要提升生育率,可以对低学历、中低收入群体推行定向经济补助、公租房等政策,对工作时间较长的群体实行减少过度加班、提供儿童托管服务的举措,营造长辈抚养的社会环境。研究结论对制定和落实生育促进政策、促进人口长期健康发展具有参考意义。     

The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries

We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982–2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children’s early years is likely to facilitate parents’ choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage.     

三孩政策背景下生育支持的多中心协同治理模式——基于生育配套政策试点项目的案例分析

为了给今后三孩生育政策的实施重点、战略方向和配套政策的制定提供理论与实践依据,通过湖北省咸宁市生育配套政策的试点,采用案例分析的研究方法,引入整体性治理理念,从政策主体、政策执行与政策绩效三要素出发,构建了生育支持政策的多中心协同治理模式。研究认为,咸宁市采取自上而下与自下而上相结合的社会化治理模式,宏观层面,政府提供资源和平台,为政策落实提供保障; 中观层面,社区提供公共服务促进家庭发展和社区稳定,用人单位提供生育便利支持家庭成员为企业创造价值; 微观层面,弘扬积极的生育文化和生育理念,提升家庭生育意愿,由此构建起政府主导、部门协同、全社会参与的生育支持体系。咸宁市生育配套政策项目试点工作提供的多中心协同治理模式,在推广中需要注重地方灵活性与时效性相结合,使生育配套政策符合当地的实际。     

Female labour force participation,fertility and public policy in Sweden

This paper analyzes the role of public policy for Sweden's combination of high female labour force participation and high levels of fertility in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We present the central elements in the tax and family policies and use a disaggregated approach to assess their impact on Swedish fertility and female labour force participation. We show that these policies stimulate both fertility and women's paid work by reducing the costs of having children while requiring parents to be employed to collect full benefits.     

鼓励生育的政策及其效果：国际经验、回顾和展望

在已有的鼓励生育的政策中,现金补贴政策具有操作简单、作用直接、指向明确的特点,对鼓励生育有积极作用,其实施效果受补贴力度、父母受教育水平以及家庭收入等因素影响;税收优惠政策实施时间较晚,具有操作复杂、调节精细化等特点,但其作用尚未取得一致性的结论,其实施效果受育龄妇女年龄、教育水平以及家庭收入水平等因素影响;产假政策具有覆盖面广、历史悠久、制度完备等特点,对鼓励生育有积极作用,但效果较小,其实施效果受家庭收入、女性劳动供给等因素影响。国际上可供借鉴的经验包括：提高政策支持力度,及早进行干预,更容易产生效果;在干预政策的选择上,现金补贴政策可先于税收政策,产假制度可作为辅助,使政策之间形成配合;对政策进行精细化设计,如鼓励多孩和大家庭、男性产假等。     

The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context

In this paper, we aim to assess the extent to which individual-level completed fertility varies across contexts characterized by policies supporting different gender division of labor models. We examine key labor market and care policies that shape gender relations in households and in the public domain. We also consider the role of gender norms, which can act as both a moderator and a confounding factor for policy effects. We hypothesize that, by facilitating role compatibility and reducing the gendered costs of childrearing, policies that support gender equality lead to an increase in fertility levels and to a reduction in fertility differentials by the level of education. Using individual-level data from the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions for 16 countries, combined with country-level data, we analyze completed fertility through multilevel Poisson’s models. We find that the national level of childcare coverage is positively associated with fertility. Family allowances, prevalence of women’s part-time employment and length of paid leaves were also found to be positively associated with completed fertility, though the associations were not statistically significant. These variables show a significant positive pattern according to education. A high number of average working hours for men are negatively associated with completed fertility and show a strong negative pattern by educational level. The prevalence of gender-egalitarian norms is highly predictive of fertility levels, yet we found no consistent evidence of a weaker association of gender-equality policies in countries where egalitarian values are less prevalent.     

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.     

A cross-national look at married women's earnings dependency

Using the Luxembourg Income Study data we examine married women's dependency on their husbands' earnings in nine Western industrialized countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. When we examine the level and degree of dependency, and the labor force participation of married women across countries, the nine countries fall into the three clusters delineated in Esping-Andersen's welfare states typology. But when we examine the determinants of the dependency within each country, the clustering disappears. Wives' dependency increases with age, the presence of young children, and the number of children. It is reduced when wives' labor force participation and education are high relative to their husbands' and in families that rely more on unearned sources of income. The similarity of patterns across countries suggests that gender differences in the work-family nexus are deeply entrenched in all countries and continue even in the face of very active social policy to minize their effects. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, August 1995, Washington DC. Her current research focuses on gender inequality and parents' time allocation between work and family. She conducts research on various aspects of family demography, including household and family characteristics, co-resident grandparent families, cohabitation, and child care. With Suzanne Bianchi, she is completing a research monograph on trends in the American family. Her research focuses on gender, work, and family issues.     

Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)

In the light of the recent reversal of fertility trends in several highly developed countries, we investigate the impact of economic development and its components on fertility in OECD countries from 1960 to 2007. We find that the strong negative correlation between GDP per capita does no longer hold for high levels of per capita economic output; the relation and fertility instead seems to turn into positive from a certain threshold level of economic development on. Survival of an inverse J-shaped association between GDP per capita and fertility is found when controlling for birth postponement, omitted variable bias, non-stationarity and endogeneity. However, gaps between actual and predicted fertility rates show implicitly the importance of factors influencing fertility above and over per capita income. By decomposing GDP per capita into several components, we identify female employment as co-varying factor for the fertility rebound that can be observed in several highly developed countries. Pointing out to important differences with regard to the compatibility between childbearing and female employment, our results suggest that fertility increases are likely to be small if economic development is not accompanied by institutional changes that improve parents’ opportunities to combine work and family life.     

Children and Dual Worklessness in Europe: A Comparison of Nine Countries

Parents’ labour market status is a strong determinant of children’s economic well-being, and children living in jobless households are particularly vulnerable. However, previous research has not focused on the association between children and household worklessness. In this paper, I used ECHP data from nine European countries to analyse the effects of the number and age of children on the probability that neither partner of a couple works. Results from random-effects regressions show that children increase the risk of dual worklessness in five of the countries. The effects were particularly strong in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and more generally, stronger in countries with little institutional support for working mothers, low levels of employment protection, and unexpectedly, where benefits were less likely to be means-tested. The risk of dual joblessness diminished with the age of the youngest child in Belgium, Finland, France and the United Kingdom and more generally, slower in countries with a strict employment protection regime and a high level of means-testing of social benefits. Having children can thus affect the labour market position of households, and influence their economic well-being. However, these effects can be shaped by the social policy and labour market solutions countries adopt.     

法国、美国和日本家庭教育支持政策考察

在不少发达国家，以家庭教育支持、对父母进行教育或父母能力建设等为己任的社会团体对家庭教育进行支持和干预的实践探索已有较长一段历史。但近年来，家庭教育支持才开始进入某些国家的公共政策视野及国家层面的政策领域。对这些国家相关政策的梳理，可为我国相关学者及政府3--作人员思考家庭教育支持政策提供相关的参考。