Enhancing the chances of successful OR/MS implementation: the role of the advocate

This paper extends understanding of the role of the advocate in the implementation of Operations Research/Management Science models in governmental agencies. The first part of this paper presents and analyzes the data resulting from interviews with 39 criminal justice agencies regarding the model implementation process. The interview data indicated that the advocate performed important problem-solving and mediation functions needed to introduce the technology. The second part of this paper provides a case study describing an advocate's successful introduction of a Patrol Car Allocation Model (PCAM) in the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department. To assess the overall effectiveness of their implementation strategy, the project team conducted a questionnaire attitudinal survey of lieutenants, sergeants and officers in two of the pilot stations prior to PCAM implementation and after staffing changes. Overall, the attitude of the respondents was more favorable at the time of the second survey. The analysis of the interviews and the PCAM case study suggests a simple normative model for enhancing the chances of successful implementation of Operations Research/Management Science models.     

A closed loop automatic scheduling system (CLASS)

Abstract

CLASS is a production scheduling system, that is designed to function in either a stand-alone manner, or in conjunction with an MRP system. MRP systems innately do not have 'closed loop’ capability in the sense of being able to produce master schedules and order releases that are consistent and that respect capacity constraints. True closed loop performance requires detailed scheduling. In addition to interfacing with MRP systems, CLASS is designed to produce schedules that can be used in conventional shops or can be downloaded to automated facilities. The design goals for the system, its internal architecture, and its role in manufacturing control systems are described. The modelling and decision capabilities     

CSR投入对闭环供应链定价与协调决策的影响

研究了供应链成员的社会责任（CSR）投入行为对闭环供应链决策的影响。考虑了闭环供应链中以下四种不同的CSR投入方式：（1）无CSR投入;（2）制造商投入CSR;（3）零售商投入CSR;（4）制造商和零售商同时投入CSR。通过对比不同模型的均衡决策和利润,发现制造商和零售商同时进行CSR投入的方式对闭环供应链决策成员和系统均最有利,而零售商投入CSR的方式优于制造商投入CSR方式。其次,以集中化决策模型的最优结果为基准,探讨了不同CSR投入方式下分散化闭环供应链系统的协调机制设计问题。结果表明：两部定价契约能有效实现CSR约束的闭环供应链的协调;且在制造商与零售商同时投入CSR决策情形,契约中制造商的议价能力最弱,零售商的议价能力最强。最后,通过算例分析了模型中关键参数对闭环供应链均衡决策与利润的影响,并进一步对闭环供应链协调的性能进行了分析。     

GREPOM: An energy policy model

Energy policy analysis and energy modelling as applied in the case of Greece are reviewed. A complex of energy policy models in synergy is presented. These models have been developed by the Energy Policy Unit of the National Technical University of Athens and constitute the framework for analysing specific medium- and long-term policy options. A case study involving the use of new energy technologies is described. Scenarios relating to the penetration rate of new energy technologies are analysed and respective policy implications are discussed. A general conclusion to the research conducted is that with parallel work on both the content of specific policy issues and the policymaking process in general, substantial progress could be made in improving the decision-making potential of public policy organizations.     

Modeling for insights,not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.     

Electricity planning vs energy planning: A modelling approach

An essential part of the energy policy making process is the co-ordination of the sub-sectorial plans of energy producers in order to ensure that they are compatible with the broader goals of the global energy system. In this paper an attempt is made to underline the significance and estimate the size of this problem through an interplay of two optimization models; a global energy system model and an electricity subsystem model. The possibility of model interlink, leading to a higher level of co-ordination, is discussed.     

政策冲击影响下中国能源消费预测分析及控制策略

本文运用缓冲算子和灰色GM（1,1）模型,对中国能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗进行了模拟和预测,在能源消费预测结果的基础上,构建了两种控制策略模型,并以中国单位GDP能耗预测为例进行了算例分析。研究结果表明,灰色模型较好地模拟和预测了中国能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗。中国在“十二五”期间的节能潜力很大,能顺利完成能源消费总量的指标。“十二五”安全控制策略为[0.48,1）,即国家在“十二五”期间的控制力度应调整为“十一五”控制力度的0.48~1倍之间。     

ECONOMICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT IN A MULTI‐REGION WORLD

This paper develops a model that integrates the climate and the global economy—an integrated assessment model—with which different policy scenarios can be analyzed and compared. The model is a dynamic stochastic general‐equilibrium setup with a continuum of regions. Thus, it is a full stochastic general‐equilibrium version of RICE, Nordhaus’s pioneering multi‐region integrated assessment model. Like RICE, our model features traded fossil fuel but otherwise has no markets across regions—there is no insurance nor any intertemporal trade across them. The extreme form of market incompleteness is not fully realistic but arguably not a bad approximation of reality. Its major advantage is that, along with a set of reasonable assumptions on preferences, technology, and nature, it allows a closed‐form model solution. We use the model to assess the welfare consequences of carbon taxes that differ across as well as within oil‐consuming and ‐producing regions. We show that, surprisingly, only taxes on oil producers can improve the climate: taxes on oil consumers have no effect at all. The calibrated model suggests large differences in views on climate policy across regions.     

Business in Japan and the United States of America; some implications for management science and operations research

Significant differences exist between United States-managed and Japanese-managed organizations.

• •• U.S. firms are epitomized by surplus behaviors (emphasis on profits and returns on assets, investments and equity).
• •• Japanese firms are characterized by scarcity behaviors (emphasis on husbanding resources and reduction of waste).
• •• Management Science has been used in the generally surplus-oriented Western-world. Western values drive its application, or the decision not to apply it.
• •• Management Science can work effectively within a scarce-resource framework, as well as within a surplus-resource framework.
• •• Management Science has been barely used by the Japanese, although they might use it effectively. A possible explanation is that the Japanese culture is pervasive and consistent in dealing with scarcity.
• •• Management Science, when combined with a severe distaste for waste, may enable Western-world management to develop better strategies to achieve Global Competitiveness.
• •• The scarcity-oriented value system elevates the importance of people as resources. Management Science, to be effective, must do the same.

     

Improving medical decision-making with a management science game theory approach to liver transplantation

Even though nowadays medicine is necessarily linked with technology, it is still a service involving human interaction, which frequently requires the help of management science tools. Indeed, a medical consultation can be an extremely complex example of human interaction. Management science, operations research and in particular game theory may play a key role in helping to improve the results of medical decision-making processes. Game theory is widely used in a large variety of decision-making studies, but there is little application to health care issues, namely the doctor-patient relationship. This paper uses game theory to model the liver transplantation consultation for patients suffering from Alcoholic Liver Disease. This disease is very delicate, and patients at its end-stages require special dedication where management science tools are of utmost importance. They may try to deceive doctors, which may lead to bad outcomes. The Nash equilibrium behaviors by doctor and patient are obtained. Results show some health policy and managerial implications on the decision-makers’ parameters and on the order of play so as to achieve, for instance, higher rates of patient’s cooperation.     

Warteschlangen-Modelle in der Produktionsplanung – Möglichkeiten und Grenzen

Production Management often tried to apply queueing models to describe the flow of products and parts. These approaches usually apply very simple queueing models. Due to mathematical problems implied by general waiting line models, an adaptation to real life problems fails often. In this paper, some simple models discussed in production management are presented and it is shown why they failed to be generalized. Afterwards, we try to find a way how to model the simple case of flow shop production using generalized queueing models: First decomposition of serial waiting lines and approximation of the system by a sequence of independent stations. Afterwards the approach of recent literature to consider again the entire system simultaneously is sketched, and it is argued that these approaches are restricted as well to small problems     

Cybernetics and the management science process

This paper addresses methodological issues currently confronting the management science community. The urgency of these issues is evidenced by [1] the growing debate over the implementability of MS/OR (Management Science/Operational Research) models, [2] the absence of professional agreement on a ‘generalized’ theory of organizational structure and control and [3] the dearth of substantive contributions in the area of ‘policy’ analysis and modeling. It is argued that any resolution of these issues must address the management science process and that developments in cybernetics provide an integrating framework for this purpose. Aspects of this framework are presented by pointing out distinctions between the more traditional MS/OR approaches and the proposed cybernetic approach. Some of the concepts involved are not always associated with cybernetics, but the implications for the practice of management science are significant.     

THE IMPACT OF PRODUCT RECOVERY ON LOGISTICS NETWORK DESIGN

Efficient implementation of closed‐loop supply chains requires setting up appropriate logistics structures for the arising flows of used and recovered products. In this paper we consider logistics network design in a reverse logistics context. We present a generic facility location model and discuss differences with traditional logistics settings. Moreover, we use our model to analyze the impact of product return flows on logistics networks. We show that the influence of product recovery is very much context dependent. While product recovery may efficiently be integrated in existing logistics structures in many cases, other examples require a more comprehensive approach redesigning a company's logistics network in an integral way.     

政府规制下非对称信息对闭环供应链差别定价的影响研究

为了研究政府规制下非对称信息对闭环供应链（CLSC）差别定价的影响，构建了政府、制造商、零售商和消费者的三阶段博弈决策模型，通过分析政府补贴与惩罚政策下CLSC各利益主体的最优定价策略，发现：在政府规制的最优水平下，非对称信息的单位产品的外部性成本变化对制造商的利润影响更为显著；新产品和再造品间的替代率存在界点，对不同决策下零售商产品定价影响不同；社会福利是政府规制的联合凹凸函数，政府的奖惩政策存在最优水平，提高了政府的规制水平，对制造商提高生产工艺和回收水平起到积极促进作用。     

A framework for optimizing managerial decision

There have been numerous attempts to analyze and formulate management problems within the general framework of Management Science and Operations Research, so as to help managers in their decision making problems. This paper focuses on the fundamental aspects of management decision making and introduces a conceptual framework in which problems of management and its different levels of functioning are systematically identified. Management problems are considered within two major categories: Enterprise and Operations problems. In spite of the difficulties in defining a clear-cut boundary between Enterprise and Operations problems, such a broad classification leads to three basic levels of management functioning, namely: Policy making, coordinating and implementation. The universal relationship among these three basic levels of functioning provides a basic functional element called the Management Triad. In contrast to classical higherarchial structure, triad structure provides a methodology to analyze relationships among different levels of management functions in terms of a given decision problem. It is demonstrated that for different decision making problems individuals can shift from one end of the triad to another and perform a different management function.A quantitative approach has been introduced for operations management decision making by adapting Shewhart's control chart philosophy which in turn provides for quasi-automated decisions for corrective action and also for filtering significant signals of change to appropriate management functioning levels.     

The Impact of Product Lifecycle on Capacity Planning of Closed‐Loop Supply Chains with Remanufacturing

Product recovery operations in reverse supply chains face rapidly changing demand due to the increasing number of product offerings with reduced lifecycles. Therefore, capacity planning becomes a strategic issue of major importance for the profitability of closed‐loop supply chains. This work studies a closed‐loop supply chain with remanufacturing and presents dynamic capacity planning policies developed through the methodology of System Dynamics. The key issue of the paper is how the lifecycles and return patterns of various products affect the optimal policies regarding expansion and contraction of collection and remanufacturing capacities. The model can be used to identify effective policies, to conduct various “what‐if” analyses, and to answer questions about the long‐term profitability of reverse supply chains with remanufacturing. The results of numerical examples with quite different lifecycle and return patterns show how the optimal collection expansion/contraction and remanufacturing contraction policies depend on the lifecycle type and the average usage time of the product, while the remanufacturing capacity expansion policy is not significantly affected by these factors. The results also show that the collection and remanufacturing capacity policies are insensitive to the total product demand. The insensitivity of the optimal policies to total demand is a particularly appealing feature of the proposed model, given the difficulty in obtaining accurate demand forecasts.     

执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究

为实现可持续发展并降低温室气体排放,中国需大力发展可再生能源,而激励政策对可再生能源发展具有重要推动作用。鉴于此,本文采用实物期权方法评价了中国可再生能源发电项目激励政策的实施效果：首先分析了可再生能源项目的经济性,提出模型假设,接着构建并求解实物期权模型。为更直观地评价激励政策效果,本文利用最优执行条件求解项目预期执行时间和不同技术水平下的激励政策最优值。最后,以光伏发电项目为例进行实证分析。研究表明：①目前,中国光伏产业还难以独立发展,仍需国家政策的支持,但现行或曾实施的光伏激励政策存在超额激励现象。②随着技术水平的提高,为鼓励投资者及时投资,政府需提高激励力度。③从政府支出、政策效果和技术影响三个角度综合分析,单项激励政策中上网电价政策效果最佳,但政府支出较高;价格补贴政策效果偏弱,但政府支出较低;与其他两项政策相比,成本补偿政策效果较差。     

能源补贴改革对资源效率和环境污染治理影响研究——基于动态CGE模型的分析

本文构建动态CGE模型,以化石和可再生能源补贴政策为对象,模拟不同类型能源补贴政策改革对经济发展、资源效率、碳排放及雾霾治理的差异性影响。研究表明：总体而言,能源补贴政策对宏观经济具有积极的促进作用,但在一定程度上会提高能源消费强度;不同类型的能源补贴政策方案影响的差异性较大,化石能源在促进经济增长的同时,对环境改善和碳排放目标实现产生不利影响,特别是煤炭补贴能有效降低能源使用成本,极大促进产业总产出和经济增长,但会不利于环境改善,对可再生能源补贴有利于能源利用效率提高和人均资源盈余改善,降低污染物和雾霾排放增速;因此,必须注重不同类型能源补贴政策协调性和差异性,短期内以化石能源补贴为主,长期而言,应逐步加大可再生能源补贴,更加有利于低碳转型和环境改善。     

Early experiences of mentoring: Design and use of multimedia materials for teaching OR/MS

The MENTOR project, based at the University of Strathclyde, is producing multimedia computer based learning materials with the aim of improving both the effectiveness and the efficiency of teaching Operational Research/Management Science in higher education. The process of development has been carefully designed to encourage ownership of and commitment to the materials amongst lecturing staff in Universities, with the aim of ensuring widespread use. The paper outlines this process of development and design of materials. Experiences in introducing students to the use of these materials as an integrated part of a Management Science class are reported. Feedback from students has been very positive but also indicates the need for ongoing support and direction.     

Energy modelling for technology assessment: the MARKAL approach

The primary objective of energy policy in many countries is to change the structure of their energy systems so as to reduce the dependence on imported oil. A large amount of funds is spent on energy research and development. The technologies competing for such funds have widely varying characteristics. These relate to costs and benefits, technical performance, environmental effects, the requirements for land, water and materials and the impact on employment. It is necessary to analyse these effects in some detail before decisions on technology programmes can be made. A complete assessment of the possible value of a particular technology cannot be made on an individual basis. It is necessary to consider many technologies simultaneously, competing against each other for various shares of the energy market. However, analysing the behaviour of the entire energy system requires the handling of an extensive amount of data and can only be done effectively with the help of a computerised system. The model, MARKAL, described in this paper is a multi-period linear programming model which has been developed and applied by 15 OECD countries for the purpose of energy technology research and development planning. Examples of the use of the model for this purpose are given both for the group as a whole and for individual countries. The model is structured so that an exogenously specified set of end-use demands must be satisfied given available technologies and energy supplies. The model allows for substitution possibilities in both the energy supply and demand sectors. A feature of the model is the use of varying objective functions such as minimum discounted costs, oil imports, or environmental effluents. These can be used individually or in combination in trade-off situations. The broader question of the use of energy modelling for technology assessment, including its limitations, is also discussed with particular reference to the insights that can be gained from the MARKAL model. Information from the MARKAL model has been used by the International Energy Agency to assist it in formulating a strategy for energy research development and demonstration.