UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE US WAGE DISTRIBUTION: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

In this paper, we propose an analytically tractable overlapping‐generations model of human capital accumulation and study its implications for the evolution of the US wage distribution from 1970 to 2000. The key feature of the model, and the only source of heterogeneity, is that individuals differ in their ability to accumulate human capital. Therefore, wage inequality results only from differences in human capital accumulation. We examine the response of this model to skill‐biased technical change (SBTC) theoretically. We show that in response to SBTC, the model generates behavior consistent with some prominent trends observed in the US data including (i) a rise in overall wage inequality both in the short run and long run, (ii) an initial fall in the education premium followed by a strong recovery, leading to a higher premium in the long run, (iii) the fact that most of this fall and rise takes place among younger workers, (iv) a rise in within‐group inequality, (v) stagnation in median wage growth (and a slowdown in aggregate labor productivity), and (vi) a rise in consumption inequality that is much smaller than the rise in wage inequality. These results suggest that the heterogeneity in the ability to accumulate human capital is an important feature for understanding the effects of SBTC and interpreting the transformation of the US labor markets since the 1970s.     

An expanded decomposition of the Luenberger productivity indicator with an application to the Chinese healthcare sector

The objective of this research is to combine productivity analysis at the “firm-level” and the “industry-level” so that a novel, fuller decomposition of the sources of productivity change can be undertaken. Productivity change is decomposed into technological progress, technical, mix, and scale efficiency effects. Specifically, our decomposition allows us to capture changes in productivity due to the reallocation of inputs or outputs across productive units. In practice, such reallocation might take place across plants operated by the same firm, across regions within a country, or via mergers and acquisitions. The new decomposition of the aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator is illustrated using data at both the provincial and regional levels for China's healthcare sector over the period 2009–2014. Our results indicate that the growth of the aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator varied across both time and regions. We find that China's regional productivity growth in healthcare was primarily driven by technological progress, while the contributions of the other components of productivity change were smaller and more varied across regions.     

Job Matching and the Wage Distribution

This paper brings together the microeconomic‐labor and the macroeconomic‐equilibrium views of matching in labor markets. We nest a job matching model à la Jovanovic (1984) into a Mortensen and Pissarides (1994)‐type equilibrium search environment. The resulting framework preserves the implications of job matching theory for worker turnover and wage dynamics, and it also allows for aggregation and general equilibrium analysis. We obtain two new equilibrium implications of job matching and search frictions for wage inequality. First, learning about match quality and worker turnover map Gaussian output noise into an ergodic wage distribution of empirically accurate shape: unimodal, skewed, with a Paretian right tail. Second, high idiosyncratic productivity risk hinders learning and sorting, and reduces wage inequality. The equilibrium solutions for the wage distribution and for the aggregate worker flows—quits to unemployment and to other jobs, displacements, hires—provide the likelihood function of the model in closed form.     

Changes in productivity of Spanish university libraries

This paper analyzes productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change in a sample of 34 Spanish university libraries between 2003 and 2007. Data envelopment analysis and a Malmquist index are combined with a bootstrap method to provide statistical inference estimators of individual productivity, technical progress, pure efficiency, and scale efficiency scores. To calculate productivity, a three-stage service model has been developed, examining productivity changes in the relationships between the libraries' basic inputs, intermediate outputs, and final outputs. The results indicate a growth in the productivity of the libraries (relationship between basic inputs and intermediate outputs) and in the productivity of the service (relationship between basic inputs and final outputs). The growth in productivity in both relationships is due to technical progress. If the variable representing the use of electronic information resources is removed from the final output, the result is a significant reduction in productivity.     

Why Rates of Growth of Employment Differ: A Quantitative Approach to an International Comparison

ABSTRACT: This essay aims at presenting a quantitative assessment of the incidence of structural differences in output and employment composition, and of differential dynamics of the sectoral production and productivity, in order to explain the divergences in net employment growth in advanced market economies. The point of reference is the extremely divergent record, in terms of employment creation, of the United States on one hand, and Western European countries on the other. In the period 1973-80, for example, although the average growth rates of GNP were, on a cyclical average, similar in the U. S. A. and the EEC areas as a whole, additional job openings were about 14 million in the USA against less than half a million in the EEC. A structural, medium-run differential in the aggregate Employment/GNP elasticity appears to have characterized the performances of these economic systems. The 'source’of this differential are analyzed, utilizing a model of sectoral decomposition of employment and output trends. Simulation exercises are carried out, in order to assess the specific role of productivity, sectoral demand composition and sectoral employment composition, in determining the overall elasticity result. The comparative analysis takes into consideration the differential factors for the USA and Japan, together with the four major Western European countries (German Fed. Rep., France, Italy, and the United Kingdom).     

Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics

We study a model of lumpy investment wherein establishments face persistent shocks to common and plant‐specific productivity, and nonconvex adjustment costs lead them to pursue generalized (S, s) investment rules. We allow persistent heterogeneity in both capital and total factor productivity alongside low‐level investments exempt from adjustment costs to develop the first model consistent with the cross‐sectional distribution of establishment investment rates. Examining the implications of lumpy investment for aggregate dynamics in this setting, we find that they remain substantial when factor supply considerations are ignored, but are quantitatively irrelevant in general equilibrium. The substantial implications of general equilibrium extend beyond the dynamics of aggregate series. While the presence of idiosyncratic shocks makes the time‐averaged distribution of plant‐level investment rates largely invariant to market‐clearing movements in real wages and interest rates, we show that the dynamics of plants' investments differ sharply in their presence. Thus, model‐based estimations of capital adjustment costs involving panel data may be quite sensitive to the assumption about equilibrium. Our analysis also offers new insights about how nonconvex adjustment costs influence investment at the plant. When establishments face idiosyncratic productivity shocks consistent with existing estimates, we find that nonconvex costs do not cause lumpy investments, but act to eliminate them.     

The Productivity Slowdown in Postwar Greece

Abstract. This article examines the two contrasting phases of labour productivity in postwar Greece. We present a model of trended labour productivity that synthesises mainstream technical factors, institutional arguments based on the social structure of accumulation framework, and Abramovitz's catch-up hypothesis. The model is empirically estimated and the labour productivity growth is found to be sensitive to changes in capital intensity, proxies of power relations in the labour market, and a productivity convergence indicator.     

Employment Relationships and Firm Innovation: The Double Role of Human Capital

We examine how employment relationships and human capital influence innovation in a sample of Spanish firms. Previous research has indicated that human capital directly affects innovation, but few studies have considered human capital as a variable that mediates or moderates the effects of other variables on innovation. We tested our hypotheses using a sample of 150 innovative Spanish firms and confirmed that, while human capital favours innovations, employment relationships are not directly associated with innovation unless they take human capital into account. Specifically, our analyses suggest that human capital mediates the relationship between a mutual investment employment relationship and innovation, which is characterized by high levels of incentives and expectations. However, we also found that human capital plays a moderating role when organizations develop an employment relationship characterized by low investments in personnel but high expectations from their work (the underinvestment model). We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results.     

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks

Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil‐price shock, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This paper offers a structural framework to analyze the impact of these uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time‐varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm‐level data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in aggregate output and employment. This occurs because higher uncertainty causes firms to temporarily pause their investment and hiring. Productivity growth also falls because this pause in activity freezes reallocation across units. In the medium term the increased volatility from the shock induces an overshoot in output, employment, and productivity. Thus, uncertainty shocks generate short sharp recessions and recoveries. This simulated impact of an uncertainty shock is compared to vector autoregression estimations on actual data, showing a good match in both magnitude and timing. The paper also jointly estimates labor and capital adjustment costs (both convex and nonconvex). Ignoring capital adjustment costs is shown to lead to substantial bias, while ignoring labor adjustment costs does not.     

The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper argues that, in the presence of intersectoral input–output linkages, microeconomic idiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. We show that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregate volatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages. Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importance of different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers, as well as their role as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher‐order interconnections capture the possibility of “cascade effects” whereby productivity shocks to a sector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also to the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility is obtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetry in the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the “sparseness” of the input–output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.     

Industrialization,Productivity and the Shift to Services and Information

All major world economies are exhibiting a shift from products to services in terms of relative share of GNP and employment. A well accepted explanation for this shift to services has been the lower productivity growth in services relative to manufacturing. A second trend visible in the United States and other advanced economies is that from material‐intensive to information‐intensive sectors with the latter growing relative to the former. There does not seem to be a generally accepted explanation for this shift; in fact, here it would appear that productivity in information‐intensive sectors is increasing. We construct a model of an economy with endogenous production and consumption decisions by utility maximizing individuals. We show that differential productivity changes can result in either relative growth or decline of a sector. A second factor affecting the direction of change is the degree to which consumption of sector outputs approaches satiation. When marginal utility of additional consumption drops sufficiently low, productivity increases can lead to declines in the relative size and share of, and employment in the sector. Concurrently, increases in productivity increase average wealth as expected, but income inequality can either increase or decrease.     

The UK National Minimum Wage's Impact on Productivity

Low pay poses issues for managers internationally. We examine productivity in low‐paying sectors in Britain, since the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW). We use a multiple channel analytical strategy, emphasizing the wage incentives channel and linking it to a model of unobserved productivity. We estimate firm‐specific productivity measures and aggregate them to the level of low‐paying sectors. Difference‐in‐differences analysis illustrates that the NMW positively affected aggregate low‐paying sector productivity. These findings highlight increased wage incentive effects with implications for management practice and public policy since ‘living’ wages may be productivity enhancing.     

Producing Synergy: Innovation,IT, and Productivity

Bringing innovations to market is critical to industrial progress and economic growth. We explore the potential for information technology (IT) to enable innovations, and thus improve productivity. We hypothesize that a knowledge stock of process‐oriented research and development (R&D) increases total factor productivity growth by leveraging traditional forms of capital and labor, and further enhances the ability of IT capital to increase productivity. We estimate these relationships using two broad panels of U.S. industries covering the periods 1987–1998 and 1998–2005. The results indicate qualified support for a synergistic effect of R&D and IT investment in both periods.     

An Empirical Model of Growth Through Product Innovation

Productivity differences across firms are large and persistent, but the evidence for worker reallocation as an important source of aggregate productivity growth is mixed. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the structure of an equilibrium model of growth through innovation designed to identify and quantify the role of resource reallocation in the growth process. The model is a version of the Schumpeterian theory of firm evolution and growth developed by Klette and Kortum (2004) extended to allow for firm heterogeneity. The data set is a panel of Danish firms that includes information on value added, employment, and wages. The model's fit is good. The estimated model implies that more productive firms in each cohort grow faster and consequently crowd out less productive firms in steady state. This selection effect accounts for 53% of aggregate growth in the estimated version of the model.     

The dynamic impacts of M&A on employment in Japan

This paper provides empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of merger and acquisition (M&A) on employment in Japan. The main contributions to the gaps in existing literature are: targeting employment effects of M&A, examining them by the deal type (merger and acquisition) and by the sector (manufacturing and non-manufacturing), tracing the effects in the long term, using large dataset with 9,880 sample firms and 2,530 M&A cases for the period from 1995 to 2008, and focusing on the case of Japan. Our main findings are: the “acquisition” with the key role of “extension and growth” proved to have positive effects in the dynamic terms on target firms’ employment, mainly in manufacturing sector with high labor productivity. On the other hand, the “merger” with key function of “consolidation” turned out to have negative impacts dynamically on post-merger firms’ employment, mainly in non-manufacturing sector with low labor productivity. The strategic implication might to be that the different employment responses to M&A events between manufacturing and non-manufacturing reflect the difference in labor productivity between them, i.e. the dual structure of Japanese economy.     

Labour‐market Institutions and Macroeconomic Shocks

Abstract. Macroeconomic shocks and labour‐market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these institutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of institutions may be appropriate in one epoch and not in another. We derive a dynamic model of labour demand in which the effect of firing costs on labour demand depends on the macroeconomic environment: when the level of macroeconomic activity is expected to drop and/or the trend rate of productivity growth is small, a rise in firing costs affects mainly (and adversely) the hiring decision and not the layoff decision. This makes firing costs harmful to employment when it may appear most appropriate. In contrast, firing costs can raise employment during periods of high growth and positive shocks. Our hypothesis is supported by empirical results using OECD data.     

SOVEREIGNS,UPSTREAM CAPITAL FLOWS,AND GLOBAL IMBALANCES

We construct measures of net private and public capital flows for a large cross‐section of developing countries considering both creditor and debtor side of the international debt transactions. Using these measures, we demonstrate that sovereign‐to‐sovereign transactions account for upstream capital flows and global imbalances. Specifically, we find that (i) international net private capital flows (inflows minus outflows of private capital) are positively correlated with countries' productivity growth, (ii) net sovereign debt flows (government borrowing minus reserves) are negatively correlated with growth only if net public debt is financed by another sovereign, (iii) net public debt financed by private creditors is positively correlated with growth, (iv) public savings are strongly positively correlated with growth, whereas correlation between private savings and growth is flat and statistically insignificant. These empirical facts contradict the conventional wisdom and constitute a challenge for the existing theories on upstream capital flows and global imbalances.     

Firms,Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper uses a data base covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990–2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregate fluctuations. We set up a simple multisector model of heterogeneous firms selling to multiple markets to motivate a theoretically founded decomposition of firms' annual sales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm‐specific component contributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as the components capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country. We then decompose the firm‐specific component to provide evidence on two mechanisms that generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recent literature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat‐tailed, idiosyncratic shocks to large firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations, and (ii) aggregate fluctuations can arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input–output linkages across the economy. Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firm shocks in driving aggregate fluctuations.     

Consumption Dynamics During Recessions

Are there times when durable spending is less responsive to economic stimulus? We argue that aggregate durable expenditures respond more sluggishly to economic shocks during recessions because microeconomic frictions lead to declines in the frequency of households' durable adjustment. We show this by first using indirect inference to estimate a heterogeneous agent incomplete markets model with fixed costs of durable adjustment to match consumption dynamics in PSID microdata. We then show that aggregating this model delivers an extremely procyclical Impulse Response Function (IRF) of durable spending to aggregate shocks. For example, the response of durable spending to an income shock in 1999 is estimated to be almost twice as large as if it occurred in 2009. This procyclical IRF holds in response to standard business cycle shocks as well as in response to various policy shocks, and it is robust to general equilibrium. After estimating this robust theoretical implication of micro frictions, we provide additional direct empirical evidence for its importance using both cross‐sectional and time‐series data.     

人力资本不平等对全要素生产力增长的影响研究

本文通过理论和实证分析研究了人力资本不平等对全要素生产力增长的影响。文章首先对人力资本不平等影响全要素生产力增长率的作用进行了数理分析。在实证研究部分,采用DEA包络分析法计算了1995-2005年30个省的全要素生产力增长率及其两个组成部分——技术进步率和效率变化率的曼奎斯特指数,利用30个省的面板数据分别用三个计量经济模型对人力资本水平和人力资本不平等与全要素生产力增长率、技术进步率和技术效率变化率之间的关系进行了实证检验。通过理论与实证分析提出本文的政策建议。