THE CONVERGENCE OF AUTOCORRELATIONS AND AUTOREGRESSIONS1

For a general class of scalar stationary processes, essentially those for which the best linear predictor is the best predictor (in the mean square sense), it is shown that, under fairly minor additional conditions, the sample autocorrelations converge to the true values almost surely and hniformly in the lag, t, at a rate (T^-1log T)^1/2, where T is the sample size. For ARMA processes, if |t|(log T)^a, a < ∞, the rate is the best possible, namely (T^-1log log T)^1/2. In particular the somewhat implausible condition, on the innovations, that E{ε(t)²| F_t-l} is constant is avoided in these results. The theorems are used to discuss autoregressive approximation. When the stationary process is a vector process the condition on the innovation sequence, ε(t), that E{ε(t)ε(t)| F_t-l} be constant, cannot be entirely avoided in relation to autoregressive approximation. This is also discussed.     

A bivariate F distribution with marginals on arbitrary numerator and denominator degrees of freedom, and related bivariate beta and t distributions

The classical bivariate F distribution arises from ratios of chi-squared random variables with common denominators. A consequent disadvantage is that its univariate F marginal distributions have one degree of freedom parameter in common. In this paper, we add a further independent chi-squared random variable to the denominator of one of the ratios and explore the extended bivariate F distribution, with marginals on arbitrary degrees of freedom, that results. Transformations linking F, beta and skew t distributions are then applied componentwise to produce bivariate beta and skew t distributions which also afford marginal (beta and skew t) distributions with arbitrary parameter values. We explore a variety of properties of these distributions and give an example of a potential application of the bivariate beta distribution in Bayesian analysis.     

The T-type estimate of a class of partially non linear models

Abstract

This paper considers a partially non linear model E(Y|X, z, t) = f(X, β) + z^Tg(t) and gives its T-type estimate, which is a weighted quasi-likelihood estimate using sieve method and can be obtained by EM algorithm. The influence functions and asymptotic properties of T-type estimate (consistency and asymptotic normality) are discussed, and convergence rate of both parametric and non parametric components are obtained. Simulation results show the shape of influence functions and prove that the T-type estimate performs quite well. The proposed estimate is also applied to a data set and compared with the least square estimate and least absolute deviation estimate.     

Profust reliability of linear and circular type F and G systems having two failure criteria under Markov dependency

In this study, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k): F(G) and < n, f, k > : F(G) systems for Markov dependent components are investigated. Having two failure criteria are the common features of these four systems. The usage of both fuzzy approach and two failure criteria in the same system provides us more realistic approach to evaluate the reliability of more complex systems. The component configurations are examined for both linear and circular sequences and the working principle of systems are studied for both F and G systems. Under all these assumptions, the profust reliabilities of (n, f, k): F(G) and < n, f, k > : F(G) systems are obtained using the distribution of run statistics. Also a new membership function different from the linear membership function which is generally used in the literature is proposed. Some numerical results which allow the comparison of the systems from various perspectives and various figures for both linear and circular type systems are presented. Some special cases (between Markov – iid assumption, conventional – profust reliability) are also considered.     

Attainability of the Upper Bounds for the Mean Past Lifetime of Parallel System Components

Among reliability systems, one of the basic systems is a parallel system. In this article, we consider a parallel system consisting of n identical components with independent lifetimes having a common distribution function F. Under the condition that the system has failed by time t, with t being 100pth percentile of F(t = F ^?1(p), 0 < p < 1), we characterize the probability distributions based on the mean past lifetime of the components of the system. These distributions are described in the form of a specific shape on the left of t and arbitrary continuous function on the right tail.     

Efficient Estimation of a Distribution Function under Quadrant Dependence

LetX₁,X₂, ..., be real-valued random variables forming a strictly stationary sequence, and satisfying the basic requirement of being either pairwise positively quadrant dependent or pairwise negatively quadrant dependent. LetF^ be the marginal distribution function of theX_ips, which is estimated by the empirical distribution functionF_n and also by a smooth kernel-type estimateF_n, by means of the segmentX₁, ...,X_n. These estimates are compared on the basis of their mean squared errors (MSE). The main results of this paper are the following. Under certain regularity conditions, the optimal bandwidth (in the MSE sense) is determined, and is found to be the same as that in the independent identically distributed case. It is also shown thatn MSE(F_n(t)) andnMSE (F^_n(t)) tend to the same constant, asn→∞ so that one can not discriminate be tween the two estimates on the basis of the MSE. Next, ifi(n) = min {k∈{1, 2, ...}; MSE (F_k(t)) ≤ MSE (F_n(t))}, then it is proved thati(n)/n tends to 1, asn→∞. Thus, once again, one can not choose one estimate over the other in terms of their asymptotic relative efficiency. If, however, the squared bias ofF^_n(t) tends to 0 sufficiently fast, or equivalently, the bandwidthh_n satisfies the requirement thatnh³_n→ 0, asn→∞, it is shown that, for a suitable choice of the kernel, (i(n) ?n)/(nh_n) tends to a positive number, asn→∞ It follows that the deficiency ofF_n(t) with respect toF^_n(t),i(n) ?n, is substantial, and, actually, tends to ∞, asn→∞. In terms of deficiency, the smooth estimateF^_n(t) is preferable to the empirical distribution functionF_n(t)     

ON UMP INVARIANT F-TEST PROCEDURES IN A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL

A simple method of setting linear hypotheses for a split mean vector testable by F-tests in a general linear model, when the covariance matrix has a general form and is completely unknown, is provided by extending the method discussed in Ukita et al. The critical functions in these F-tests are constructed as UMP invariants, when the covariance matrix has a known structure. Further critical functions in F-tests of linear hypotheses for the other split mean vector in the model are shown to be UMP invariant if the same known structure of the covariance matrix is assumed.     

C472. The expected value of a conditional variance: An upper bound

The article derives Bartlett corrections for improving the chi-square approximation to the likelihood ratio statistics in a class of symmetric nonlinear regression models. This is a wide class of models which encompasses the t model and several other symmetric distributions with longer-than normal tails. In this paper we present, in matrix notation, Bartlett corrections to likelihood ratio statistics in nonlinear regression models with errors that follow a symmetric distribution. We generalize the results obtained by Ferrari, S. L. P. and Arellano-Valle, R. B. (1996). Modified likelihood ratio and score tests in linear regression models using the t distribution. Braz. J. Prob. Statist., 10, 15–33, who considered a t distribution for the errors, and by Ferrari, S. L. P. and Uribe-Opazo, M. A. (2001). Corrected likelihood ratio tests in a class of symmetric linear regression models. Braz. J. Prob. Statist., 15, 49–67, who considered a symmetric linear regression model. The formulae derived are simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several Bartlett corrections in a variety of important models. We also present simulation results comparing the sizes and powers of the usual likelihood ratio tests and their Bartlett corrected versions.     

Characterizations of the poisson process using,the variance

Let γ(t) be the residual life at time t of the renewal process {A(t), t > 0}, which has F as the common distribution function of the inter-arrival times. In this article we prove that if Var(γ(t)) is constant, then F will be exponentially or geometrically distributed under the assumption F is continuous or discrete respectively. An application and a related example also are given.     

Propriétés statistiques des copules de valeurs extrêmes bidimensionnelles

Let (X, Y) be a bivariate random vector whose distribution function H(x, y) belongs to the class of bivariate extreme-value distributions. If F₁ and F₂ are the marginals of X and Y, then H(x, y) = C{F₁(x),F₂(y)}, where C is a bivariate extreme-value dependence function. This paper gives the joint distribution of the random variables Z = {log F₁(X)}/{log F₁(X)F₂(Y)} and W = C{F₁{(X),F₂(Y)}. Using this distribution, an algorithm to generate random variables having bivariate extreme-value distribution is présentés. Furthermore, it is shown that for any bivariate extreme-value dependence function C, the distribution of the random variable W = C{F₁(X),F₂(Y)} belongs to a monoparametric family of distributions. This property is used to derive goodness-of-fit statistics to determine whether a copula belongs to an extreme-value family.     

A zero-one law for large order statistics

Fix r ≥ 1, and let {M_nr} be the rth largest of {X₁,X₂,…X_n}, where X₁,X₂,… is a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with distribution function F. It is proved that P[M_nr ≤ u_n i.o.] = 0 or 1 according as the series Σ^∞_n=3Fⁿ(u_n)(log log n)^r/n converges or diverges, for any real sequence {u_n} such that n{1 -F(u_n)} is nondecreasing and divergent. This generalizes a result of Bamdorff-Nielsen (1961) in the case r = 1.     

Nonparametric estimators for shift in quantal bioassay

Let F(x) and F(x+θ) be log dose-response curves for a standard preparation and a test preparation, respectively, in a parallel quantal bioassay designed to test the relative potency of a drug, toxicant, or some other substance, and suppose the form of F is unknown. Several estimators of the shift parameter θ or relative potency, are compared, including some generalized and trimmed Spearman-Kärber estimators and a non parametric maximum likelihood estimator. Both point and interval estimation are discussed. Some recommendations concerning the choices of estimators are offered.     

Partly linear models on Riemannian manifolds

In partly linear models, the dependence of the response y on (x ^T, t) is modeled through the relationship y=x ^T β+g(t)+?, where ? is independent of (x ^T, t). We are interested in developing an estimation procedure that allows us to combine the flexibility of the partly linear models, studied by several authors, but including some variables that belong to a non-Euclidean space. The motivating application of this paper deals with the explanation of the atmospheric SO₂ pollution incidents using these models when some of the predictive variables belong in a cylinder. In this paper, the estimators of β and g are constructed when the explanatory variables t take values on a Riemannian manifold and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are obtained under suitable conditions. We illustrate the use of this estimation approach using an environmental data set and we explore the performance of the estimators through a simulation study.     

On the construction of orthogonal F-squares of order n from an orthogonal array (n, k, s, 2) and an OL(s, t) set

Complete sets of orthogonal F-squares of order n = s^p, where g is a prime or prime power and p is a positive integer have been constructed by Hedayat, Raghavarao, and Seiden (1975). Federer (1977) has constructed complete sets of orthogonal F-squares of order n = 4t, where t is a positive integer. We give a general procedure for constructing orthogonal F-squares of order n from an orthogonal array (n, k, s, 2) and an OL(s, t) set, where n is not necessarily a prime or prime power. In particular, we show how to construct sets of orthogonal F-squares of order n = 2s^p, where s is a prime or prime power and p is a positive integer. These sets are shown to be near complete and approach complete sets as s and/or p become large. We have also shown how to construct orthogonal arrays by these methods. In addition, the best upper bound on the number t of orthogonal F(n, λ₁), F(n, λ₂), …, F(n, λ₁) squares is given.     

TESTS FOR DETECTING MORE NBU-NESS AT A SPECIFIC AGE

This paper proposes a class of non‐parametric test procedures for testing the null hypothesis that two distributions, F and G, are equal versus the alternative hypothesis that F is ‘more NBU (new better than used) at specified age t₀’ than G. Using Hoeffding's two‐sample U‐statistic theorem, it establishes the asymptotic normality of the test statistics and produces a class of asymptotically distribution‐free tests. Pitman asymptotic efficacies of the proposed tests are calculated with respect to the location and shape parameters. A numerical example is provided for illustrative purposes.     

On occupation times for a risk process with reserve-dependent premium

Consider a risk reserve process under which the reserve can generate interest. For constants a and b such that a<b, we study the occupation time T _a,b (t), which is the total length of the time intervals up to time t during which the reserve is between a and b. We first present a general formula for piecewise deterministic Markov processes, which will be used for the computation of the Laplace transform of T _a,b (t). Explicit results are then given for the special case that claim sizes are exponentially distributed. The classical model is discussed in detail.     

Approximate F-tests of multiple degree of freedom hypotheses in generalized least squares analyses of unbalanced split-plot experiments

Approximate t-tests of single degree of freedom hypotheses in generalized least squares analyses (GLS) of mixed linear models using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of variance components have been previously developed by Giesbrecht and Burns (GB), and by Jeske and Harville (JH), using method of moment approximations for the degrees of freedom (df) for the tstatistics. This paper proposes approximate Fstatistics for tests of multiple df hypotheses using one-moment and two-moment approximations which may be viewed as extensions of the GB and JH methods. The paper focuses specifically on tests of hypotheses concerning the main-plot treatment factor in split-plot experiments with missing data. Simulation results indicate usually satisfactory control of Type I error rates.     

Bayesian hypothesis testing for selected regression coefficients

ABSTRACT

We develop new Bayesian regression tests for prespecified regression coefficients. Simple, closed forms of the Bayes factors are derived that depend only on the regression t-statistic and F-statistic and the usual associated t and F distributions. The priors that allow those forms are simple and also meaningful, requiring minimal but practically important subjective inputs.     

Detecting change points and monitoring biomedical data

Bayesian and likelihood approaches to on-line detecting change points in time series are discussed and applied to analyze biomedical data. Using a linear dynamic model, the Bayesian analysis outputs the conditional posterior probability of a change at time t ? 1, given the data up to time t and the status of changes occurred before time t ? 1. The likelihood method is based on a change-point regression model and tests whether there is no change-point.     

The Kumaraswamy skew-t distribution and its related properties

Skew normal distribution is an alternative distribution to the normal distribution to accommodate asymmetry. Since then extensive studies have been done on applying Azzalini’s skewness mechanism to other well-known distributions, such as skew-t distribution, which is more flexible and can better accommodate long tailed data than the skew normal one. The Kumaraswamy generalized distribution (Kw ? F) is another new class of distribution which is capable of fitting skewed data that can not be fitted well by existing distributions. Such a distribution has been widely studied and various versions of generalization of this distribution family have been introduced. In this article, we introduce a new generalization of the skew-t distribution based on the Kumaraswamy generalized distribution. The new class of distribution, which we call the Kumaraswamy skew-t (KwST) has the ability of fitting skewed, long, and heavy-tailed data and is more flexible than the skew-t distribution as it contains the skew-t distribution as a special case. Related properties of this distribution family such as mathematical properties, moments, and order statistics are discussed. The proposed distribution is applied to a real dataset to illustrate the estimation procedure.