INDEPENDENCE DISTRIBUTION-PRESERVING NONNEGATIVE-DEFINITE COVARIANCE STRUCTURES FOR THE SAMPLE VARIANCE

This paper explicitly characterizes the general nonnegative-definite covariance structure for a multivariate normal random vector such that the univariate sample variance is distributed exactly as if the sample observations are normal independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). This work extends the results of Baldessari (1965) and Stadje (1984) who have characterized the general positive-definite covariance matrix such that the univariate sample variance is distributed exactly as if the sample observations are normal i.i.d.     

Rank covariance matrix estimation of a partially known covariance matrix

Classical multivariate methods are often based on the sample covariance matrix, which is very sensitive to outlying observations. One alternative to the covariance matrix is the affine equivariant rank covariance matrix (RCM) that has been studied in Visuri et al. [2003. Affine equivariant multivariate rank methods. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 114, 161–185]. In this article we assume that the covariance matrix is partially known and study how to estimate the corresponding RCM. We use the properties that the RCM is affine equivariant and that the RCM is proportional to the inverse of the regular covariance matrix, and hence reduce the problem of estimating the original RCM to estimating marginal rank covariance matrices. This is a great computational advantage when the dimension of the original data vector is large.     

Percentage points of the statistics for testing hypotheses on mean vectors of multivariate normal distributions with missing observations

A problem of testing of hypotheses on the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution with unknown and positive definite covariance matrix is considered when a sample with a special, though not unusual, pattern of missing observations from that population is available. The approximate percentage points of the test statistic are obtained and their accuracy has been checked by comparing them with some exact percentage points which are calculated for complete samples and some special incomplete samples. The approximate percentage points are in good agreement with exact percentage points. The above work is extended to the problem of testing the hypothesis of equality of two mean vectors of two multivariate normal distributions with the same, unknown covariance matrix     

Discriminant analysis of multivariate repeated measures data with a Kronecker product structured covariance matrices

This paper proposes new classifiers under the assumption of multivariate normality for multivariate repeated measures data with Kronecker product covariance structures. These classifiers are especially effective when the number of observations is not large enough to estimate the covariance matrices, and thus the traditional classifiers fail. Computational scheme for maximum likelihood estimates of required class parameters are also given. The quality of these new classifiers are examined on some real data.     

Classification of an observation into linear manifolds,their closed subsets and closed convex subsets

In this paper, we generalize the notion of classification of an observation (sample), into one of the given n populations to the case where some or all of the populations into which the new observation is to be classified may be new but related in a simple way to the given n populations. The discussion is in the frame-work of the given set of observations obeying the usual multivariate general linear hypothesis model. The set ofpopulations into which the new observation may be classified could be linear manifolds of the parameter space or their closed subsets or closed convex subsets or a combination of them or simply t subsets of the parameter space each of which has a finite number of elements. In the last case alikelihood ratio procedure can be obtained easily. Classification procedures given here are based on Mahalanobis distance. Bonferroni lower bound estimate of the probability of correctly classifying an observation is given for the case when the covariance matrix is known or is estimated from a large sample. A numerical example relating to the classification procedures suggested her is given.     

Partitioning k multivariate normal populations according to equivalence with respect to a standard vector

We propose optimal procedures to achieve the goal of partitioning k multivariate normal populations into two disjoint subsets with respect to a given standard vector. Definition of good or bad multivariate normal populations is given according to their Mahalanobis distances to a known standard vector as being small or large. Partitioning k multivariate normal populations is reduced to partitioning k non-central Chi-square or non-central F distributions with respect to the corresponding non-centrality parameters depending on whether the covariance matrices are known or unknown. The minimum required sample size for each population is determined to ensure that the probability of correct decision attains a certain level. An example is given to illustrate our procedures.     

Scheffés mixed model for multivariate repeated measures:a relative efficiency evaluation

Scheffé’s mixed model, generalized for application to multivariate repeated measures, is known as the multivariate mixed model (MMM). The primary advantages the MMM are (1) the minimum sample size required to conduct an analysis is smaller than for competing procedures and (2) for certain covariance structures, the MMM analysis is more powerful than its competitors. The primary disadvantage is that the MMM makes a very restrictive covariance assumption; namely multivariate sphericity. This paper shows, first, that even minor departures from multivariate sphericity inflate the size of MMM based tests. Accordingly, MMM analyses, as computed in release 4.0 of SPSS MANOVA (SPSS Inc., 1990), can not be recommended unless it is known that multivariate sphericity is satisfied. Second, it is shown that a new Box-type (Box, 1954) Δ-corrected MMM test adequately controls test size unless departure from multivariate sphericity is severe or the covariance matrix departs substantially from a multiplicative-Kronecker structure. Third, power functions of adjusted MMM tests for selected covariance and noncentrality structures are compared to those of doubly multivariate methods that do not require multivariate sphericity. Based on relative efficiency evaluations, the adjusted MMM analyses described in this paper can be recommended only when sample sizes are very small or there is reason to believe that multivariate sphericity is nearly satisfied. Neither the e-adjusted analysis suggested in the SPSS MANOVA output (release 4.0) nor the adjusted analysis suggested by Boik (1988) can be recommended at all.     

On discrimination and classification with multivariate repeated measures data

We study the problem of classification with multiple q-variate observations with and without time effect on each individual. We develop new classification rules for populations with certain structured and unstructured mean vectors and under certain covariance structures. The new classification rules are effective when the number of observations is not large enough to estimate the variance–covariance matrix. Computational schemes for maximum likelihood estimates of required population parameters are given. We apply our findings to two real data sets as well as to a simulated data set.     

Classification rules for triply multivariate data with an AR(1) correlation structure on the repeated measures over time

In this article we study the problem of classification of three-level multivariate data, where multiple q$q$-variate observations are measured on u$u$-sites and over p$p$-time points, under the assumption of multivariate normality. The new classification rules with certain structured and unstructured mean vectors and covariance structures are very efficient in small sample scenario, when the number of observations is not adequate to estimate the unknown variance–covariance matrix. These classification rules successfully model the correlation structure on successive repeated measurements over time. Computation algorithms for maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown population parameters are presented. Simulation results show that the introduction of sites in the classification rules improves their performance over the existing classification rules without the sites.     

New HEAVY Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariances and Returns

ABSTRACT

We develop a new score-driven model for the joint dynamics of fat-tailed realized covariance matrix observations and daily returns. The score dynamics for the unobserved true covariance matrix are robust to outliers and incidental large observations in both types of data by assuming a matrix-F distribution for the realized covariance measures and a multivariate Student's t distribution for the daily returns. The filter for the unknown covariance matrix has a computationally efficient matrix formulation, which proves beneficial for estimation and simulation purposes. We formulate parameter restrictions for stationarity and positive definiteness. Our simulation study shows that the new model is able to deal with high-dimensional settings (50 or more) and captures unobserved volatility dynamics even if the model is misspecified. We provide an empirical application to daily equity returns and realized covariance matrices up to 30 dimensions. The model statistically and economically outperforms competing multivariate volatility models out-of-sample. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

A characterization of the independence - distribution - preserving covariance structure for the multivariate maximum squared - radii statistic

Necessary and sufficient conditions on the observation covariance structure and on the set of linear transformations are given for which the distribution of the multivariate maximum squared - radii statistic for detecting a single multivariate outlier is invariant from the distribution assuming the usual independence covariance structure. Thus, we extend the work of Baksalary and Puntanen (1990), who have given necessary and sufficient conditions for an independence-distribution-preserving covariance structure for Grubbs' statistic for detecting a univariate outlier. We also extend the work of Marco, Young, and Turner (1987) and Pavur and Young (1991), who have given sufficient conditions for an independence-distribution-preserving dependency structure for the multivariate squared - radii statistic.     

Location‐invariant Multi‐sample U‐tests for Covariance Matrices with Large Dimension

For two or more multivariate distributions with common covariance matrix, test statistics for certain special structures of the common covariance matrix are presented when the dimension of the multivariate vectors may exceed the number of such vectors. The test statistics are constructed as functions of location‐invariant estimators defined as U‐statistics, and the corresponding asymptotic theory is used to derive the limiting distributions of the proposed tests. The properties of the test statistics are established under mild and practical assumptions, and the same are numerically demonstrated using simulation results with small or moderate sample sizes and large dimensions.     

A Comparison of Methods of Fitting Models to Twin Data

Data on twins are used to infer a genetic component of variance for various quantitative human characteristics. There are several statistical approaches available to analyze twin data. Here we compare three approaches for fitting variance components models to the relationship between height and bi-illiocristal diameter across ages in a sample of male and female Polish twins aged 8–17. Two of the approaches assume a multivariate normal model for the data, with one basing the likelihood on the raw data and the other using the distribution of the sample covariance matrix. The third approach uses a robust modification of the multivariate normal log-likelihood to downweight abnormal observations. The statistical theory underlying the methods is outlined, and the implementation of the methods is discussed.     

Bootstrapping Spatial Median for Location Problems

In multivariate location problems, the sample mean is most widely used, having various advantages. It is, however, very sensitive to outlying observations and inefficient for data from heavy tailed distributions. In this situation, the spatial median is more robust than the sample mean and could be a reasonable alternative. We reviewed several spatial median based testing methods for multivariate location and compared their significance level and power through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that bootstrap method is efficient for the estimation of the covariance matrix of the sample spatial median. We also proposed bootstrap simultaneous confidence intervals based on the spatial median for multiple comparisons in the multi-sample case.     

Separability tests for high-dimensional,low-sample size multivariate repeated measures data

Longitudinal imaging studies have moved to the forefront of medical research due to their ability to characterize spatio-temporal features of biological structures across the lifespan. Valid inference in longitudinal imaging requires enough flexibility of the covariance model to allow reasonable fidelity to the true pattern. On the other hand, the existence of computable estimates demands a parsimonious parameterization of the covariance structure. Separable (Kronecker product) covariance models provide one such parameterization in which the spatial and temporal covariances are modeled separately. However, evaluating the validity of this parameterization in high dimensions remains a challenge. Here we provide a scientifically informed approach to assessing the adequacy of separable (Kronecker product) covariance models when the number of observations is large relative to the number of independent sampling units (sample size). We address both the general case, in which unstructured matrices are considered for each covariance model, and the structured case, which assumes a particular structure for each model. For the structured case, we focus on the situation where the within-subject correlation is believed to decrease exponentially in time and space as is common in longitudinal imaging studies. However, the provided framework equally applies to all covariance patterns used within the more general multivariate repeated measures context. Our approach provides useful guidance for high dimension, low-sample size data that preclude using standard likelihood-based tests. Longitudinal medical imaging data of caudate morphology in schizophrenia illustrate the approaches appeal.     

Multivariate normal estimation: the case (n < p)

Estimation in the multivariate context when the number of observations available is less than the number of variables is a classical theoretical problem. In order to ensure estimability, one has to assume certain constraints on the parameters. A method for maximum likelihood estimation under constraints is proposed to solve this problem. Even in the extreme case where only a single multivariate observation is available, this may provide a feasible solution. It simultaneously provides a simple, straightforward methodology to allow for specific structures within and between covariance matrices of several populations. This methodology yields exact maximum likelihood estimates.     

Robust multivariate change point analysis based on data depth

Modern methods for detecting changes in the scale or covariance of multivariate distributions rely primarily on testing for the constancy of the covariance matrix. These depend on higher-order moment conditions, and also do not work well when the dimension of the data is large or even moderate relative to the sample size. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric change point test for multivariate data using rankings obtained from data depth measures. As the data depth of an observation measures its centrality relative to the sample, changes in data depth may signify a change of scale of the underlying distribution, and the proposed test is particularly responsive to detecting such changes. We provide a full asymptotic theory for the proposed test statistic under the null hypothesis that the observations are stable, and natural conditions under which the test is consistent. The finite sample properties are investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation, and these along with the theoretical results confirm that the test is robust to heavy tails, skewness and high dimensionality. The proposed methods are demonstrated with an application to structural break detection in the rate of change of pollutants linked to acid rain measured in Turkey lake, a lake in central Ontario, Canada. Our test suggests a change in the rate of acid rain in the late 1980s/early 1990s, which coincides with clean air legislation in Canada and the US. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 417–446; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

Conjugate analysis of multivariate normal data with incomplete observations

The authors discuss prior distributions that are conjugate to the multivariate normal likelihood when some of the observations are incomplete. They present a general class of priors for incorporating information about unidentified parameters in the covariance matrix. They analyze the special case of monotone patterns of missing data, providing an explicit recursive form for the posterior distribution resulting from a conjugate prior distribution. They develop an importance sampling and a Gibbs sampling approach to sample from a general posterior distribution and compare the two methods.     

Multivariate Synthetic |S| Control Chart with Variable Sampling Interval

A variable sampling interval (VSI) feature is introduced to the multivariate synthetic generalized sample variance |S| control chart. This multivariate synthetic control chart is a combination of the |S| sub-chart and the conforming run length sub-chart. The VSI feature enhances the performance of the multivariate synthetic control chart. The comparative results show that the VSI multivariate synthetic control chart performs better than other types of multivariate control charts for detecting shifts in the covariance matrix of a multivariate normally distributed process. An example is given to illustrate the operation of the VSI multivariate synthetic chart.     

Polynomial estimation of eigenvalues

In estimating the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal population, the usual estimates are the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix. It is well known that these estimates are biased. This paper investigates obtaining improved eigenvalue estimates through improved estimates of the characteristic polynomial, which is a function of the sample eigenvalues. A numerical study investigates the improvements evaluated under both a square error and an entropy loss function.