Informing the Public About Uncertain Risks

Many problems arise in connection with the communication of risk information. In this article the content of the information communicated is taken as a starting-point for analyzing the risk communication process. We studied the way in which authorities communicated health risks to local residents in Dutch soil pollution situations and found that communication problems were characterized more by misunderstanding and conflict between parties with different views and interests than by a lack of understanding. Therefore, it is important to look more closely at the way the communicators of information (in our cases, officials) select risk information from risk assessments, and to study the effects that the information selected has on the receivers (in our cases, residents). Both the process of selection by the officials and the process of interpretation by the residents will be shown to be influenced by the different institutional backgrounds. The article presents a new approach to risk communication. Both the risk information presented by the authorities and the public reactions to this risk information are considered to reflect the institutional background of authorities and residents, and can be analyzed in these terms. Such an approach has consequences for the study of risk communication and the manner in which it is practiced.     

How the Japanese came to dominate the machine tool business

This paper reports the major findings of a study of the strategic evolution of the machine tool industry. The author interviewed more than 70 machine tool corporations in five countries, plus a number of industry experts and officials. The major conclusion of the study is that what for a long time was perceived to be a mature slow-moving industry, actually is undertaking a fast process of change. Corporations and governments which fail to recognize the sources and directions of change are heading for trouble.     

DIY Do’s and Don’ts: Limitations to Building University-Community Partnerships with Low Resource Communities of Color

Communities are becoming more diverse and urban planning programs must train students to work with a range of constituents. Little is known about the role of university-community partnerships involved in tactical urbanism as a method to revitalize low resource communities of color. This paper describes the planning process in a partnership between Florida State University and its surrounding community. We highlight the role of faculty and students in facilitating a studio project in Frenchtown implementing tactical urbanism. It also provides the voices of residents, City officials, and non-profit organizations. We conclude with recommendations to improve university-community partnerships through long-term engagement in surrounding communities.     

Waterborne Disease‐Related Risk Perceptions in the Sonora River Basin,Mexico

Waterborne disease is estimated to cause about 10% of all diseases worldwide. However, related risk perceptions are not well understood, particularly in the developing world where waterborne disease is an enormous problem. We focus on understanding risk perceptions related to these issues in a region within northern Mexico. Our findings show how waterborne disease problems and solutions are understood in eight small communities along a highly contaminated river system. We found major differences in risk perceptions between health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Health professionals believed that a high level of human‐waste‐related risk existed within the region. Few officials and lay citizens shared this belief. In addition, few officials and lay citizens were aware of poor wastewater‐management‐related disease outbreaks and water contamination. Finally, aside from health professionals, a few interviewees understood the importance of basic hygiene and water treatment measures that could help to prevent disease. Our results add to the literature on environmentally‐related risk perceptions in the developing world. We discuss recommendations for improving future human‐wastewater‐related risk communication within the region.     

Moral Hazard in High Office and the Dynamics of Aristocracy

Both aristocratic privileges and constitutional constraints in traditional monarchies can be derived from a ruler's incentive to minimize expected costs of moral‐hazard rents for high officials. We consider a dynamic moral‐hazard model of governors serving a sovereign prince, who must deter them from rebellion and hidden corruption which could cause costly crises. To minimize costs, a governor's rewards for good performance should be deferred up to the maximal credit that the prince can be trusted to pay. In the long run, we find that high officials can become an entrenched aristocracy with low turnover and large claims on the ruler. Dismissals for bad performance should be randomized to avoid inciting rebellions, but the prince can profit from reselling vacant offices, and so his decisions to dismiss high officials require institutionalized monitoring. A soft budget constraint that forgives losses for low‐credit governors can become efficient when costs of corruption are low.     

Risk: For Whom? Representations of Mining Activity by Different Social Actors in the Molango Manganese District of Hidalgo,Mexico

Previous studies have shown high levels of manganese exposure and neurocognitive damage in the population living in the mining zone in Molango, Mexico. One of the objectives of the Intersectoral Group on Environmental Management for the mining district has been to provide public participation in the risk management plan. To achieve this, it is important to know how the different social actors represent the mining activity. The objectives of this study were to characterize the social representations of the mining activity by different social actors. A qualitative design was used based on in‐depth interviews of residents, public officials, and a mining company representative. The analysis was conducted according to themes for each group of actors. Essentially, distinct social representations of the different mining activities were identified. Residents viewed mining activities as synonymous with contamination and, therefore, as having affected all areas of their environment, health, and daily life. These activities were seen as a collective risk. The public officials and the mining company held that there was no evidence of harm and saw mining activities as a generator of regional development. Harm to health and the environment were seen as a stance taken by the communities in order to obtain economic benefits from the company. These images of the “other” are shaped by social, political, and cultural factors. They make it difficult for the actors to reach cooperative agreements and thereby affect progress on the risk management plan. Decisionmakers need to take these differences into account when promoting social participation.     

Shared Governance in Communities: Using Study Circles to Put Citizens at the Center of the System

This article describes four communities where citizens and government are participating in a dialogue and action process called study circles. Together, the organizers, citizens, and public officials of these communities are beginning to recognize the potential benefits of sharing the decisions and tasks of governance.     

Planning participation in public decision making

By posing as specialists in forecasting the future, by arguing the “inevitability of technological progress, and by hiding behind the skirts of public officials, planners in the public sector seek to exercise power without responsibility—power to determine the shape of life for the rest of us. The author attacks this myth of the all- seeing planner and in the process seeks to demolish some of the planners' unwarranted assumptions about “the year 2000”, the future of technology, the affluent society, the age of leisure, etc.     

The Significance of Socioeconomic and Ethnic Diversity for the Risk Communication Process

Risk communication is being characterized as one way of facilitating more effective, democratic and participatory risk management strategies. An emphasis on formal communication approaches as a means to improve decisions and decrease conflict will highlight the challenge of managing hazards within a culturally heterogeneous society. Communication and participatory strategies will be considered successful only if diverse communities can be engaged as partners in the policy process. Because responses to risks are embedded and evolve within broader social environments, achieving the promise of risk communication across a diverse society may not be possible absent an understanding of how sociocultural variables and past experiences shape the exchange of ideas or information in any particular situation. This paper considers the implications of ethnic and socioeconomic variability for the risk communication process, summarizing theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence on the link between sociocultural features and risk responses. Specifically, the factors that define the context of communication may influence: the initial framing of a risk issue, particularly, the adoption of an environmental justice vs. scientific/economic perspective; the perceived importance of various aspects of the decision problem; and prior beliefs about environmental hazards and agencies involved in risk management. Two examples of situations requiring communications about risk are presented and illustrate how these principles could operate in minority or lower-income communities. A significant challenge for health and regulatory officials will be to engage in an interactive process of information and opinion exchanges that is reasonable and effective within vastly different socioeconomic and cultural contexts.     

信贷融资中审批腐败与支付腐败比较研究

当企业家拥有良好的项目但缺乏足够的自有资金时,一般会选择向金融机构寻求信贷融资支持,信贷融资中的腐败现象也由此产生。将企业家在向银行寻求信贷融资时遇到的信贷腐败分为两类:一类是金融机构中主管信贷审批的高层人员的审批腐败,另一类是负责信贷业务及发放的基层人员的支付腐败。通过分析企业家为其项目寻求信贷融资时分别遭遇审批腐败、支付腐败、及同时遭遇两类腐败时的影响,揭示信贷腐败与信贷融资之间的关系。指出两类腐败具有相互影响的关系,基层支付腐败对信贷融资项目产生逆向选择,阻止了低风险项目的信贷融资行为,而高层人员倾向于和融资项目合作,并有降低基层机构支付腐败的动机。最后基于分析的结论提出了一些针对性的对策建议。     

Conundrums of Urban Planning in a Global Context: The Case of the Frankfurt Airport

The article reviews the complexity of urban policy formulation in Frankfurt, Germany, where officials are trying to enlarge the international airport to stay competitive in international air transportation and meet the challenges of global business operations. This case study analyzes an elaborate mediation process that helped the formal decision-makers avert the violence threatened by anti-globalization and environmentalist protesters. Although some legal challenges loom ahead, a majority of Frankfurt residents support the new airport expansion. The Frankfurt experience will help other communities minimize the confrontation between urban policy makers, corporate business elites, and citizen groups that are concerned with issues of public health and clean environment.     

POLITICAL SELECTION IN CHINA: THE COMPLEMENTARY ROLES OF CONNECTIONS AND PERFORMANCE

Who becomes a top politician in China? We focus on provincial leaders—a pool of candidates for top political office—and examine how their chances of promotion depend on their performance in office and connections with top politicians. Our empirical analysis, based on the curriculum vitae of Chinese politicians, shows that connections and performance are complements in the Chinese political selection process. This complementarity is stronger the younger provincial leaders are relative to their connected top leaders. To provide one plausible interpretation of these empirical findings, we propose a simple theory in which the complementarity arises because connections foster loyalty of junior officials to senior ones, thereby allowing incumbent top politicians to select competent provincial leaders without risking being ousted. Our findings shed some light on why a political system known for patronage can still select competent leaders.     

Judgmental measures for public project selection

An empirical study is described in which the feasibility of employing multidimensional scaling to obtain perceived measures of public projects is investigated. Data concerning eight possible muncipal projects were gathered from city officials and citizens of Kingston, Canada. Response problems are identified and the limitations for implementing the methods are discussed.     

Evaluating Citizen Advisory Boards: The Importance of Theory and Participant-Based Criteria and Practical Implications

The role of risk communication and public participation in environmental and public policy decision making has significantly increased over the last 15 years and remains an important social policy issue. In spite of this emphasis, government officials and participants in the process continue to struggle with what makes for "good" public participation. This study used two frameworks--one theoretical and one participant-based-to evaluate two U.S Army Restoration Advisory Boards (RABs). The theoretical framework explores the extent to which the RABs facilitate Habermas's idealized conditions of speech as related to fairness. Not surprisingly, we found that the two RABs do not consistently foster the idealized aspects of fairness suggested by Habermas. The participant-based criteria were elicited through interviews with participants from the various stakeholder groups represented on the RAB, direct observation of RAB meetings, and a review of RAB-related documents. We found that participants' value outcomes (the results of participatory processes) and not just the process itself, which is the focus of the theoretical framework. We also found that participants in the various stakeholder groups had different perceptions of the goals of the participatory process, which were closely related to their notions of success. Our results illustrate both the complexity and importance of using multiple frameworks for evaluating participatory efforts and the need for more systematic evaluation.     

Manpower allocation in the criminal investigation process

A model describing the optimal allocation of manpower for the investigation department of the Israeli police force is described. A technique for estimating police officials preferences is given. It is believed that the approach and the methodology used can be applied in various manpower allocation problems and can serve as a good case study.     

AN EXPERT SYSTEM APPLICATION FOR DECISION SUPPORT IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

Expert systems offer promise for decision-making support in stressful circumstances such as those that occur when law enforcement officials respond to hostage-taking incidents. These are life-or-death situations in which the costs of decision error are enormous. This paper reports on an expert system being developed and tested to aid police decision makers in hostage-taking incidents. Knowledge is represented by rules embedded in an incident-based decision-tree network. Four different decision makers who have similar but distinct information needs are supported and their efforts are coordinated by the system, which must function in real time as the crisis unfolds. Clear, concise, highly focused dialogue is required at the user interface since frequently only seconds are available in which to make a decision and implement it.     

Central Bank Independence in the Pacific Island Countries: A Case Study of Vanuatu

Central banks are an important element of governance in most countries, although surprisingly neglected in the public administration literature. The South Pacific island nations have established central banks for regulating their payment systems and financial and banking sectors. They are pursuing monetary policies towards the objectives of growth and price stability under fixed exchange rate regimes. Although these bank authorities have been given enough powers to assert themselves under the relevant statutes, institutional experiences indicate that some of these powers are eroded over time by political interference, as well as by acts of omission and commission by officials both in the central banks and in governments. This is illustrated by particular reference to the case of Vanuatu, a young South Pacific republic.     

中国企业的游说行为及其伦理规范研究

游说是指企业通过各种途径与政府官员进行沟通,力求在政府政策和立法的制定和实施过程中反映本企业的利益和要求。企业的游说行为在本质上不是邪恶的,而是一种对社会负责的行为。文章首先通过理论分析建立了一个企业游说行为的框架,然后通过与十多位企业高层进行深度访谈,探讨了我国企业游说的途径及其潜规则。针对访谈中发现的伦理问题,分析了我国企业游说行为的伦理,提出了解决我国企业游说行为伦理问题的可行步骤。     

Effects of Track and Threat Information on Judgments of Hurricane Strike Probability

Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone—a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters.