Agricultural policies and migration in a U.S.-Mexico free trade area: A computable general equilibrium analysis

A United States-Mexico agreement to form a free trade area (FTA) is analyzed using an 11-sector, three-country, computable general equilibrium model that explicity models farm programs and labor migration. The model incorporates both rural-urban migration within Mexico and international migration between Mexico and the United States. In the model, sectoral import demands are specified with a flexible functional form, an empirical improvement over earlier specifications, which use a constant elasticity of substitution function. Using the model, we identify trade-offs among bilateral trade growth, labor migration, and agricultural program expenditures under alternative FTA scenarios. Trade liberalization in agriculture greatly increases rural- urban migration within Mexico and migration from Mexico to the United States. Migration is reduced if Mexico grows relative to the United States and also if Mexico retains farm support programs. However, the more support that is provided to the Mexican agricultural sector, the smaller is bilateral trade growth. The results indicate a policy trade-off between rapidly achieving gains from trade liberalization and providing a transition period long enough to assimilate displaced labor in Mexico without undue strain.     

对江西省农村剩余劳动力转移问题的再思考

江西省是一个农业大省,农业在全省国民经济中占有重要地位,农业人口比重也较大,是我国第三大劳务输出省。农村剩余劳动力的转移将是一项艰巨的任务,任重而道远,我们必须重视它,清楚它的现状,找到问题的制约因素,并应积极采取有效措施,推动农村剩余劳动力有序流动,合理实现农业人口向非农产业转移,以促进江西省经济的发展和社会稳定。     

关注涉农产业发展促进农村剩余劳动力转移--北京涉农产业劳动力就业的分析与评价

北京的涉农产业正在为京郊农业增效、农民增收、农村劳动力转移提供越来越大的支持平台。本文通过对涉农产业及其劳动力就业的大量调查,分析了北京涉农产业发展的现状,初步测算了北京农业劳动力与涉农产业劳动力的比例,提出从发展都市农业综合经济出发,拉长农业产业链,关注、支持、发展涉农产业,促进更多的农业剩余劳动力转移。     

跨国资本与中国中产阶级的生产:以在华跨国公司中方高端劳动力为例

本文认为,在跨国资本的作用下,中国形成了三位一体金字塔式的劳动力市场结构。以新自由主义意识形态为基础,跨国公司巨大的资本优势建构了高端劳动力市场的过度市场化和高端劳动力的碎片化。在华跨国公司高端劳动力人员与公司的权威控制关系受到后现代资本主义生产模式的影响,在任务管理取向下,高端劳动力人员超强劳动,且因内部劳动力市场的激励效应而呈现甘愿性顺从的倾向;此外,高端劳动力人员依靠自身的专业技术资格与竞争能力发展出积极的职业生涯策略。跨国资本在建构中国分层的劳动力市场的同时,也对中国社会结构的重组造成影响,产生了新的阶层--中产阶级。     

反哺农业:寻求社会公平发展的有效途径

文章提出“三农”问题的实质是现代化过程中农民与其他社会利益主体之间的利益关系。目前,我国已进入工业反哺农业的时代。通过构建农村公共服务体系,实现城乡社会公平发展;依靠乡镇企业发展,实现劳动力转移促农,农产品加工和产业化经营促农;建农补农实现反哺促农;小城镇建设与乡镇企业发展相互促进实现以城带乡促农。     

劳工输出、跨国生产政治与剥削关系的形成——中国赴日劳工的案例研究

在全球化背景下，发展中国家向发达国家的劳工输出形塑了一种资方与劳方之间的剥削关系。基于中国赴日劳工的案例，本研究借助“跨国生产政治”的分析框架探讨这种剥削关系的形成机制。雇主和移工围绕加班工资展开博弈，而外劳制度对移工权利的限制及其赋予雇主的权力、不同国族移工的竞争以及跨国劳务中介的选择性庇护，使移工无论反抗还是消极服从，都可能面临加班福利缩减、加班机会丧失甚至工作丢失的困境。这种跨国生产体制具有“市场专制”性质，而外劳制度限制、资方对外劳制度缝隙的利用、全球过剩的劳动力市场、拆分型劳动力再生产体制共同体现了国际合同劳工面临的跨国生产政治，成为发达资本主义国家资本强制剥削再度出现的重要机制。     

中国农民专业合作经济组织的经济效用分析

在入世后我国农业与世界农业全面接轨的大背景下.如何将一家一户分散经营的小农户有效组织起来以应对竞争激烈的大市场.成为解决"三农"问题的一道必答题.该问题的解决程度,事关我国农业竞争力提升、农村劳动力转移、农村经济社会稳定等诸多方面.通过研究农民专业合作经济组织在降低交易成本、实现规模经济、促进生产要素合理流动、降低风险、促进农民增收等方面的经济有效性,可为农民专业合作经济组织发展方向提供参考.     

Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries

This paper presents a new model incorporating features of developing country agriculture likely to shape the welfare outcomes of alternative agricultural policies. The model features heterogeneous households linked through markets in a rural economy-wide structure, with endogenous market participation for farmers facing transactions costs. We use it to simulate the impacts on rural welfare of market price supports, production subsidies, input subsidies, and the removal of transaction costs. Applications to six countries demonstrate the diversity of potential impacts, exhibit some systemic differences compared with impacts in developed countries, and identify specific circumstances under which market interventions may be only slightly less efficient than direct payments at transferring incomes to rural households.     

休闲农业在我国山区经济发展中的潜力分析

山区发展休闲农业潜力非常大,全国大多数大中城市周边农村都有发展休闲农业的条件。山区农村的生态环境是发展农村经济最好的资源,是发展休闲农业的生产资本,可以容纳一大批农民当地就业,可以大幅度增加农民收入,是一种新兴产业,是现代农业的重要组成部分,是解决三农问题的一种重要途径。农村现有的土地山林和生态环境是发展休闲农业产业的固定生产资本之一,农家小楼的投资建设加上生态环境构成完整的休闲农业的固定生产资本,其投资应该由国家财政来解决。农业财政方针转变为资本性投资功能,解决多年以来农业生产资本增长缓慢问题,国家应该承担投资的风险。只有劳动者获得所需要的生产资本才能够进行扩大再生产,才能够不断扩大农民增收的源泉。     

Population pressure and agricultural productivity in Bangladesh

The relationship between population pressure or density and agricultural productivity is examined by analyzing the changes in the land-man ratio and the changes in the level of land yield in the 17 districts of Bangladesh from 1961-64 and 1974-77. The earlier years were pre-Green Revolution, whereas in the later years new technology had been introduced in some parts of the country. Net sown area, value of total agricultural output, and number of male agricultural workers were the main variables. For the country as a whole, agricultural output grew by 1.2%/year during 1961-64 to 1974-77, while the number of male agricultural workers grew at 1.5%/year. The major source of agricultural growth during the 1960s was found to be increased land-yield associated with a higher ratio of labor to land. The findings imply that a more intensified pattern of land use, resulting in both higher yield and higher labor input/unit of land, is the main source of growth of output and employment in agriculture. There is very little scope for extending the arable area in Bangladesh; increased production must come from multiple cropping, especially through expansion of irrigation and drainage, and from increases in per acre yields, principly through adoption of high yield variants, which explained 87% of the variation in output per acre during the 1970s. Regional variation in output was also associated with variation in cropping intensity and proportion of land given to high yield variants. There is considerable room for modernizing agricultural technology in Bangladesh: in 1975-76 less than 9% of total crop land was irrigated and only 12% of total acreage was under high yield variants. The adoption of new food-grain technology and increased use of high yield variants in Bangladesh's predominantly subsistence-based agriculture would require far-reaching institutional and organizational changes and more capital. Without effective population control, expansion of area under high yield variants would not improve the employment situation in the foreseeable future.     

增加农民收入的几点思考

发展农村经济,有效增加农民收入,是当前一个亟待研究和解决的重大问题。要解决好这个问题,应从以下方面着手建构新的国民收入分配体系,增加对“三农”的投入,建立和完善农产品价格支持政策;加快农村产业结构调整的步伐,提高农业整体效益。拓宽农民就业渠道,有效增加农民收入;加快城镇化步伐,促进农业富余劳动力转移;以三个转变强化销售,拉动农村经济结构调整和产业化建设;加快农业科技进步,推动农村经济发展。     

Deciding Where to Retire: Intended Retirement Location Choices of Formerly Undocumented Mexican Migrants*

Objective. I use transnational theory to address how transnational relationships, behavior, and context influence retirement location choices of recently legalized immigrants. I also account for the relationship between assimilation and retirement location choices. Methods. To test these theories, I use the 1992 Legalized Population Survey to examine formerly undocumented Mexican immigrants' attachment to the United States through their intended retirement location, either the United States or Mexico. I use logistic regression to test whether the two theories are related with retirement location choices. Results. I find strong support for the role of transnational factors, thus widening the scope of the literature to include variables linking immigrants to their communities within Mexico. Conclusion. This study empirically tests and quantifies transnational theory using multivariate analysis, and adds to the transnational literature by suggesting that national boundaries are political constructs that do not completely contain social and economic systems.     

发展循环经济型生态农业的思考——以广西兴安县为例

循环经济是以追求更大经济效益、更少资源消耗、更低环境污染和更多劳动就业为目标的先进经济模式。循环经济型生态农业是把循环经济发展理念和模式运用到农业,深度利用农村种植养殖业产生的废弃物和以农产品为原料的城市工业及乡镇企业产生的废弃物,化害为利,变废为宝,产生显著经济、社会、环境效益的生态农业类型。广西兴安县通过龙头企业带动,沼气的综合利用,以及政府的政策引导,积极扶持龙头企业参与循环经济型生态农业建设,取得很好实效,并给我们带来许多的启示和思考。     

气候变化背景下“绿色工作”的理念与实践

进入21世纪以来,“绿色工作”作为一个全新的研究领域在世界范围内迅速兴起。绿色工作是一种无毒、安全、清洁、健康、可持续的工作,在应对气候变化,保护自然环境,解决就业问题,实现可持续发展等方面具有积极作用。绿色工作强调环境与经济、环境与人的“绿化”,包含意识、技术、政策和市场四个紧密联系、均衡发展的要素。加拿大、美国、德国、孟加拉国等在绿色工作的实践中,形成了自下而上的“元模式”、自上而下的“分散模式”以及非政府组织为主导的自下而上模式,在解决就业等社会问题上成效显著。通过法律政策的保障以及人才、技术的支持,推动我国绿色工作的发展,是实现社会可持续发展的重要课题。     

家庭与市场：中国农村的非农就业模式探究

本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2005数据探讨了中国农村家庭的非农就业模式。随着农户家庭在集体农业的解体后成为重要的生产主体,部分农民从家庭农业中疏离而成为工薪阶层或者进入增长中的私营经济部门。本文的第一个模型采用logistic回归在个人层面估测已婚男性和女性在农业或者非农经济部门中就业的机会,第二个模型则探究在夫妇层面选择四种就业模式的可能性：夫妇双方,夫妇中的一方（丈夫或妻子）,或者没有任何一方从事非农职业。两个模型支持了教育水平对非农就业机会的正面作用。妇女的就业方式对于祖父母的支持效应和子女的付出效应更为敏感,但祖父母所起的作用受到本身年龄的制约。同时,男性的就业优势对家庭在职业上的性别分工并没有显著的推动作用。模型结果也表明,家庭就业模式的形成是和市场层面的因素,如村庄的地理位置,经济发展特征和劳动力状况紧密联系在一起的。另外,东部和中部地区在提供非农就业机会方面,相对于西部地区具备了一定的优势条件。     

提高农民素质是解决我国劳动力就业压力的根本途径

加入WTO ,会对我国农业生产造成巨大的冲击 ,农村剩余劳动力的问题会更加严峻。只有提高农民的科技文化素质 ,才能有更多的农民进得了城。也只有这样 ,才能提升我国的企业素质 ,提升我国的城镇素质。因此 ,提高农民素质 ,解决农民再就业是解决我国就业问题的关键。而提高农民素质的关键又在于加大农村教育的力度 ,搞好农民教育。     

A comparative study of the modes of transference of surplus labor in China's countryside

The problems posed by the recent development of a surplus labor force in rural areas of China are examined. Separate consideration is given to ways to absorb this surplus both within and outside the agricultural sector, agricultural labor migration to other rural areas, and rural-urban migration. The implications for urbanization and migration policy are reviewed.     

对我国农村金融服务创新模式的思考

通过对我国农村金融服务创新的理论思考及其四种模式的分析,提出以下建议:在现代农业快速发展的背景下,农村金融服务创新应该突破以单一客户贷款为主的传统模式,以农业生产专业化、组织化和社会化特征为导向,发挥金融机构的技术、网络、管理优势,开展依托农业经营主体间、产业间的联动关系的综合性金融服务。这样既有利于兼顾金融服务的效率性和普惠性,也有利于形成具有自我循环功能的良性资金运行机制。     

THE IMPACTS OF DEREGULATION AND AGRICULTURAL RESTRUCTURING FOR RURAL AUSTRALIA

As a leader in the Cairns Group of Nations, Australia has been advancing deregulation in agri‐food trade. Successive governments have assumed that Australia would benefit from a greater deregulation of international trade because this would allow increased access to world markets for primary agricultural commodities. But regulation exists, at least in Europe, to protect the social value of the rural landscape. Australian governments, strongly influenced by economic rationalist ideology, have given insufficient consideration to the rural social landscape. Little critical reflection has taken place about whether Australia, and its farmers, would actually benefit from deregulation, or what the social impacts of this trend might be. Deregulation inevitably invokes structural adjustment, forces farmers out of agriculture, depopulates rural areas, and creates social hardship. There are also environmental ramifications. The exit of farmers from agriculture has not been as fast as was expected by economists and policy‐makers, with many farmers adapting to new situations.     

增加农民收入要靠深化农村体制改革

促进农民收入增长问题不是一个简单的问题 ,必须通盘考虑一些深层次问题 ,诸如 :农业生产方式、市场配置农业资源、城乡二元结构等等 ,从而研究并出台系统完整的体制改革方案。应该用现代科技和先进的生产力改造并提升传统农业 ,用产业化生产方式取代小农经济。