INPUT CHOICES UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY

Theory shows that, depending on risk preferences and technological parameters, price uncertainty may alter firms' choice of capital intensity. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effect of price uncertainty on firms' choices of capital and labor stocks. Empirical results from a cross-section of manufacturing industries, as well as within-industries over time, show that greater price uncertainty increases an industry's capital-labor ratio. It appears that risk aversion does not dominate firms' decision making. These empirical findings have implications for the analysis of factor demand and productivity, and capacity utilization rates.     

A LABORATORY STUDY OF DUOPOLY PRICE COMPETITION WITH PATIENT BUYERS

This article reports a duopoly experiment in which sellers compete to sell to a potentially patient buyer. Each period sellers simultaneously post prices and the buyer costlessly observes either one or both prices. The buyer can then either accept an observed price or reject all offers. Following a rejection, sellers may have an opportunity to post prices again in another round. We study how the duopolists' pricing behavior responds to changes in the likelihood of the buyer observing multiple prices, γ, and the probability of continuing to another round, δ. The unique stationary equilibrium features mixed strategies. Consistent with the equilibrium, observed prices are decreasing in γ and δ. Contrary to the equilibrium, however, buyers sometimes reject profitable price offers, and average prices are lower than predicted when only one round of offers is possible and higher than predicted in the multiple‐round game. (JEL D43, D83, L13)     

OPTIMAL PRICE OF ENTRY INTO A COMPETITION

A continuum of contestants are choosing whether to enter a competition. Each contestant has a type, and of those who enter, the ones with highest types receive prizes. A profit‐maximizing firm controls entry, and charges a price for it. I show that an increase in the value of each prize leads the firm to raise the price while keeping the intensity of entry fixed. Conversely, when the mass of prizes increases, the firm initially keeps the price constant while allowing entry to increase; and later—raises the price. (JEL C72, D82, D83)     

HETEROGENEITY UNDER COMPETITION

A standard prediction of neoclassical microeconomics is that with perfect competition, free entry, and atomistic firms producing a homogeneous product, equilibrium finds all firms employing that technology which has minimum average cost. That competition drives out inefficient producers and reduces heterogeneity within industries is, consequently, a commonplace rule of thumb in economic thinking. This paper demonstrates that demand uncertainty is sufficient to produce heterogeneity in the equilibrium employment of production technologies and to permit the coexistence of producers exhibiting different minimum average costs. This heterogeneity is ubiquitous because the conditions for its presence are not stringent.     

A LABORATORY STUDY OF AUCTIONS WITH A BUY PRICE

We present a series of laboratory experiments that examine auctions with buy prices, which are prices that allow a bidder to stop the auction and buy the item immediately. Two types of buy prices are considered, one that is available throughout the auction and one that disappears with an initial bid. Both are evaluated with and without proxy bidding. We find that the use of a buy price increases revenue, early bidding, and auction efficiency. Differences between outcomes in auctions with permanent and temporary buy prices are consistent with the observed choices in auction design made by online auction sites. (JEL C90, D44, C70, L81)     

INCOMPLETE CONTRACTING: A LABORATORY EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS

Incomplete contracts are motivated by difficulties in specifying contingent responses to unforeseen change in long-term trading relationships. The issues can be parsimoniously represented in a two-period model. Parties first make transaction-specific investment that enhances value or reduces cost. Surplus is then realized, and bargaining divides the surplus and completes the contract. The testable hypothesis is that realized surplus shares are independent of sunk investments. This is strongly rejected using laboratory experimental methods. Failure of the prediction affects the expected profitability of contracts.     

SPATIAL COMPETITION AND THE PRICE OF COLLEGE

This article provides the first evidence that universities compete directly on price, and that the market for students depends on the proximity of competitors. Exploiting detailed data from private U.S. universities, price competition is tested by introducing geographic proximity into a spatial-autoregressive tuition model. Standard spatial models show that list and net tuition are inversely related to distance between institutions, consistent with price competition in higher education. An extension to the spatial-econometrics literature relaxes a constraint that estimated spatial relationships are common across all observations, implying that spatial effects differ across qualitative classes of institutions . ( JEL C21, I2, L11)     

DIMENSIONS OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: A COMMON FACTOR ANALYSIS

Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a potential driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the distinct dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy, we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors that account for the common dynamics in this dataset. These factors are interpreted as macroeconomic uncertainty. The first factor captures business cycle uncertainty, while the second factor represents oil and commodity price uncertainty. While both types of uncertainty generate a decline in output, time‐varying oil and commodity price uncertainty is more important for fluctuations in real activity. However, nonlinearities seem to amplify the effect of business cycle uncertainty during the global financial crisis. (JEL C32, C38, E32)     

COOPERATION SPILLOVERS AND PRICE COMPETITION IN EXPERIMENTAL MARKETS

Firms often cooperate explicitly through activities such as research joint ventures, while competing in other markets. Cooperation in research and development can allow firms to internalize the external benefits of knowledge creation and increase the returns from research and development (R&D) expenditures. Such cooperation may spill over to facilitate collusion in the market, however, potentially lowering welfare and efficiency. This paper uses a laboratory experiment to examine if sellers successfully coordinate to fund a joint research project to reduce their costs, and how this collaboration affects their pricing behavior. The experiment includes control treatments with separate R&D cooperation and markets. Our results show that although participants usually cooperate when given an opportunity, cooperation is observed less frequently when they also compete in the market. Communication improves cooperation in all environments, particularly when the market is present. Nevertheless, the data provide no evidence of seller collusion in the market. (JEL D43, D71, H40, O3)     

ZONING UNDER SPATIAL PRICE DISCRIMINATION

This paper investigates zoning in a duopoly model of spatial price discrimination. We find that the zone in which the firms are not allowed to locate depends on the bias of the regulator. A bias toward firms is deduced when locations around the central area are forbidden, and a bias toward consumers exists when firms are only allowed to locate at places around the central area. The design of the zoned area guarantees that firms locate optimally and works under simultaneous or sequential choice of locations by the two firms. (JEL L13, R38)     

INTER­INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY UNDER UNCERTAINTY

In a competitive economy under certainty, inter-industry rates of return on real investment would approach equality in the long run. Stigler [141 found empirical evidence that there are significant inter-industry differ- ences in profitability rates. Fisher and Hall [4] and Cootner and Holland [3] suggested that differences in profitability among industries may be attributable to inter-industry differences in risk. If different industries are exposed to different degrees of risk, long-run inter-industry differences in profitability would be expected even in a competitive economy. Over the period 1950–1967 this study used two-way ANOVA to test the null hypothesis that there were no persistent inter-industry differences in risk-adjusted profitability. The null hypothesis was rejected at the .001 level under four different test specifications. These findings may be viewed as an extension of Stigler's work and lend support to the hypothesis of persistent barriers to entry in the United States economy. Our empirical findings are positive in nature. Significant and persistent differences in risk-adjusted inter-industry profitability rates were found, but no attempt was made to identify what factors influence and perpetu- ate these differences. A possible area for future research is an investigation of the relationship between risk-adjusted return and measures of concentration and barriers to entry. Such a study would presumably parallel Bain's [1] prior work.     

PRICE LEVEL UNCERTAINTY, SAVING, AND LABOR SUPPLY

This paper derives the implications, for individual saving and labor supply, of increased uncertainty about the future price level. The framework for the analysis is a two-period model in which saving and labor supply are alternative sources of both present disutility and future income. The individual is assumed to make simultaneously his saving and labor supply decisions prior to the resolution of the uncertainty about the future price level. We find that, under theoretically plausible and empirically relevant assumptions about attitudes toward risk, an increase in future price level uncertainty increases individual saving and labor supply. These results imply that, for the economy as a whole, increased uncertainty about the future price level increases output and employment, while decreasing the real rate of interest, the present price level, and economic welfare.     

AGGREGATE PRICE SHOCKS AND FINANCIAL INSTABILITY: A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

This article presents evidence on the relationship between price and financial stability. We construct an annual index of financial conditions for the United States, 1790–1997, and estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on the index using a dynamic ordered probit model. We find that price-level shocks contributed to financial instability during 1790–1933 and that inflation rate shocks contributed to financial instability during 1980–97. The size of the aggregate price shock needed to alter financial conditions depends on the institutional environment, but we conclude that a monetary policy focused on price stability would contribute to financial stability.     

DID THE EURO FOSTER ONLINE PRICE COMPETITION? EVIDENCE FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PRICE COMPARISON SITE

We study the impact of the Euro on prices charged by online retailers within the European Union. Our data span the period before and after the Euro was introduced, cover a variety of products, and include countries inside and outside of the Eurozone. After controlling for cost, demand, and market structure effects, we show that the pure Euro changeover effect is to raise average prices in the Eurozone by 3 % and average minimum prices by 7%. Finally, we develop a model of online pricing in the context of currency unions and show that these price patterns are broadly consistent with those of clearinghouse models. (JEL D400, D830, F150, L130, M370 )