Deducing majority candidates from election data

An election among m ? 3 candidates is conducted by system s ? {1, 2, …, m ?1} when each voter can vote for any k candidates so long as k ∈ s and the winner is the candidate who receives the most votes. Suppose the available data for an election conducted by s consists of the total number n of voters plus the number of votes n_i received by candidate a_i for i = 1, …, m, and for definiteness assume that n₁> n₂ ? … ? n_m so that a₁ wins the election. The winner a₁ is defined to be a majority candidate if for each i > 1 more voters prefer a₁ to a_i than prefer a_i to a₁. Question: Given m and s, what must be true of the available election data so that the winner is certain to be a majority candidate? Assuming that a voter can have any weak preference order on the candidates but is not indifferent among all m candidates, and assuming that each voter might vote in any manner that is not clearly contrary to his own interests, the following answers to the Question are derived for m = 3 and m = 4. The only s in a three-candidate election that can guarantee that a₁ is a majority candidate is the approval voting system s = {1, 2}, and it can make this guarantee if and only if $\text{n}{}_1\text{>}\text{n}\text{2}\text{+ min{n}{}_2\text{, n}{}_1\text{+ n}{}_2\text{+ n}{}_3\text{? n}}$. There are two systems for four-candidate elections that can guarantee that a₁ is a majority candidate, namely s = {1, 2} and s = {1, 2, 3}, and for each of these a₁ must be a majority candidate if and only if $\text{n}{}_2\text{+ n}{}_3\text{+ n}{}_4\text{<}\text{n}\text{2}$. By implication, the plurality system s = {1} can never assure one that the winner is a majority candidate. Stronger assumptions than those used in the main analysis, which are able to ensure that the plurality winner is a majority candidate, are identified.     

关于建构我国竞选制度的思考

关于竞选的研究是完善中国选举制度的子课题。选举实践和理论水平、民众的政治文化素质、选举文化的不足等因素决定在我国应开展“有限竞选”。在各种文件中将各类提名主体的叙述顺序进行调整;敦促单位启动内部的民主参与机制确定提名候选人;理性开展确定正式候选人的“酝酿、讨论、协商”等是候选人产生环节“有限”竞选的措施。候选人与选民或代表之间直接接触;候选人之间展开辩论;候选人依法选择自我宣传的方式等是从候选人到正式当选进程中的竞选机制建构的可选路径。     

Coincidence probabilities for simple majority and positional voting rules

With three candidates and an odd number n of voters, let Q(n, λ, p) be the probability that the winning candidate under the point-total rule that assigns 1, λ, and 0 points respectively to each first, second, and third-place vote is the same as the simple majority candidate, given that there exists a simple majority candidate, when each voter independently selects a linear preference order on the candidates by a common probability distribution p on the six linear orders on the candidates. With Q(n, λ) = Q(n, λ, p) when p assigns probability $\text{1}\text{6}$ to each order, the λ values that maximize Q(n, λ) for small n consist of open intervals in [0, $\text{1}\text{2}$]. Using quadrivariate normals, a computational form is developed for the limiting probability Q(λ) = lim_n→∞Q(n, λ). The function Q(λ) = Q(1 ? λ) for each λ ? [0, 1] and is differentiable with Q(λ) strictly increasing as λ goes from 0 to $\text{1}\text{2}$. The maximum value $\text{Q(}\text{1}\text{2}\text{)}$ is approximately. 901189. Effects of nonuniform p distributions on Q(n, λ, p) are also discussed.     

Who loses in direct democracy?

We examine the success of California’s black, Latino, and Asian voters in ballot proposition elections, showing that minority voters lose more often than whites across all ballot propositions, and that this disadvantage is not limited to a small subset of racially-targeted propositions. Minority voters are 2-5 percentage points less likely than otherwise-similar white voters to be on the winning side of ballot propositions. These differences persist after excluding racially-targeted propositions because minority voters are more likely to lose on several issues including elections, the environment, health, housing, taxes, and transportation. We demonstrate that race is more important than class in describing which voters lose.     

Do inferences of competence from faces predict political selection in authoritarian regimes? Evidence from China

Candidate appearance is a significant predictor of election outcomes in democracies because voters often make inference of competence based on facial appearance. Do inferences of competence from faces matter in autocracies? In this article, we study the effects of candidate appearance on the selection of three types of Chinese officials: (1) rural deputies elected to a local people's congress (LPC), (2) urban deputies elected to the LPC, and (3) unelected mayors and bureaucrats. We find that facial competence cues are relevant only to the votes received by rural LPC candidates. Our findings suggest the importance of information accessibility in political selection. In particular, the “selectorate” of mayors and bureaucrats do not need facial appearance cues because they have access to substantive information about the quality of political candidates. Our findings provide a possible explanation for the resilience of some autocracies: they are able to identify talent through an informative, albeit non-electoral, selection mechanism.     

我国的人大代表选举制度

在当代,选举制度是代议民主最基本的要素。在我国,人大代表作为人民代表大会制度的主体,是通过民主选举而产生的。在人大代表选举制度中,有选举权的普遍性、选举权平等、直接选举和间接选举、差额选举、无记名投票（或秘密投票）等原则。选民登记、选区划分、代表名额、代表候选人的提出与确定、预选、代表候选人的宣传介绍、投票选举、选举结果的确定、对代表的监督和补选等都是这些原则的展开和体现。同时,可将这些原则作为标准来观照现实的选举制度。随着我国经济、政治、文化和社会等的发展,选举法也必须与时俱进。     

自主参选人的兴起与人大代表选举制度的新走向

公民自主参选人大代表的兴起,一度引起社会各界的广泛关注,也在各方面影响到人大制度的选举过程和结果。然而,目前在研究区县级人大代表换届选举过程中出现的这一新兴群体时。许多研究还处于概念冲突的状态。可看到的相关概念群包括：“自荐候选人”、“非组织提名候选人”和“独立候选人”等概念,不仅引发学界和人大工作者的许多争议,而且给人大代表选举制度带来现实挑战。因而探讨自主参选人的兴起及其概念具有重要的理论和实践价值,这在很大程度上也将成为人大选举制度由“确认型”向“竞争型”演进中的重要标志。     

完善基层人民代表选举产生机制的若干思考

基层人大代表选举是我国人民代表大会制度的一项重要内容。候选人提名和确定的过程是否民主,直接关系到整个选举的民主实现程度。尽管选举法对提名人、提名方法、确定候选人的方式、程序都作了规定,但在具体提名和确定候选人的过程中存在提名方式的非程序化,“暗箱作业”加“领导旨意”,预定各种比例关系,重“组织提名”轻“非组织提名”,对候选人缺乏程序和资格上的要求等问题。本文针对存在的问题,提出相应对策。     

A lay-statistician explanation of minority discrimination

We outline a new explanation of discrimination against numerical minorities. In contrast to prior work that focuses on how the content of categories affects discrimination, our argument describes how the size of categories leads to discrimination. Specifically, we argue that, when comparing multiple categories, actors tend to view larger categories as more closely approximating an underlying population than smaller ones. As a result, a decision maker will tend to expect that members of a numerical majority are more likely to be what he/she is searching for, whether it is the best or worst candidate. We report the results of two studies designed to test these arguments. To demonstrate the generality of the proposed mechanism, Study 1 tested the argument in a non-social domain. Participants disproportionately favored the majority (vs. minority) category when searching for a single winning lottery ticket, and favored the minority category when the goal was to avoid a single losing ticket. Our second study supported an additional implication of the argument in a social domain: decision makers tended to rank highly qualified majority job candidates as better than equally qualified minority candidates, and relatively unqualified majority candidates as worse than equally unqualified minority candidates.     

Deception in simple voting games

The calculations of sophisticated voters who successively eliminate undesirable strategies are analyzed in three-person voting games in which one voter with complete information can, as a deceiver, induce the other two voters with incomplete information to vote in such a way as to ensure a better outcome than the deceiver could ensure in a game of complete information. Deception which is “tacit,” wherein a deceiver votes consistently with his announced preference scale, is distinguished from deception which is “revealed,” wherein a deceiver's action deviates from his announced preference scale. Among the conclusions drawn from the study is that revealed deception is generally a more potent tool than tacit deception in securing a more-preferred outcome, and deception opportunities are greater the more disagreement there is among the nondeceivers.     

充满裂痕的国家--2004年乌克兰总统选举危机产生原因的综合分析及反思

2004年10月31日乌克兰举行了独立以来的第四次总统大选,这场选举被普遍认为是1991年以来东欧地区进行的最敏感的总统选举。亲西方的总统候选人尤先科和亲俄罗斯的亚努科维奇展开了激烈的竞争。由选举结果引发的争议在乌克兰引起了严重的政治危机。这场危机的产生不仅仅是很多人所认为的那样单纯是东西方地缘政治争夺的结果,同时它也是乌克兰国内历史、经济、宗教等因素综合作用的结果。     

从"性别差距"看美国女性在选举中的地位

随着女性参政意识的增强,美国女性逐渐在选民中占居多数,大选中的"性别差距"引起了人们的注意。自1980年以来,"性别差距"在美国历次大选中表现明显,其存在的根本原因在于男女在政治、经济和社会地位等方面的不平等,致使女性对一些问题的看法与男性有所差异,因此在大选中也显示出了差距。对"性别差距"的研究从各个侧面揭示了女性选举的特点及其选票的分布情况,对美国总统候选人的竞选活动或执政者的策略制定都有很高的参考价值。     

公共选择,还是经济选择?——基于多数规则下两种利益再分配的思考

人类生活中同时存在着公共选择和经济选择,两者除原有已提出的共性外,还应补充多数规则这一共性。原有理论只重视两者的共性而忽视了它们的区别,或是仅将其区别归结为偏好是否一致的假设。其实,两者的本质区别不在于偏好,而在于支付能力的完全不同:公共选择是人口选票,而经济选择是资源选票。人口选票只能统一约束偏好的强度而不是方向,资源选票不会统一约束偏好的强度和方向。两种选择在同一多数规则下都必然产生对多数有利的再分配。公共选择中是占人口少数的富人向占人口多数的穷人转移利益;经济选择中是持有少数资源的穷人向持有多数资源的富人转移利益。可见,由于各自支付能力的不同,在同一多数规则下两者再分配发生的利益转移方向完全相反,且两种选择产生两种不同的公平标准。     

An analysis of nonpartisan election media expenditure decisions using limited dependent variable methods

In order to maximize the information disseminating function of campaigning, candidates for political office must make numerous decisions regarding the allocation of resources for various campaign activities. One of the most important financial decisions a candidate must make occurs in determining the extent and character of mass media expenditures. To determine mass media budget allocations, two decisions are required. First, the type(s) of mass media to employ in the campaign, and second, the amount of the budget to allocate to each media selected. These two decisions are not necessarily independent since high fixed costs are associated with employing electronic media.In this paper, we examine one particular form of mass media, television, and its use in nonpartisan elections. Because of the nature of the decision process in using television advertising an estimation technique for limited dependent variables is employed to predict first, the probability that a candidate will use television advertising in a campaign, and second, the amount spent on such advertising. The occurrence of these outcomes is considered to be a function of both the total financial resources available to the candidate and the type (importance) of the political office sought.     

外籍居民入选居委会的选举逻辑与社区政治空间转换

在高度国际化社区,社区自治与治理困境背后的重要问题是自治主体的确认与社区力量的整合,这就涉及社区中的重要力量——外国籍人。而是否应该把选举权与被选举权赋予外籍居民存在强烈争议。本文在对上海市H社区2006年居委会换届选举一个多月蹲点观察基础上,分析外国籍人入选居委会的现实需求、法律制度困境、选举成功逻辑以及社区政治空间转换等,并提出国际化社区民主选举与社区自治、治理、社区培育相结合的新发展路径。     

民主与多数统治:多数主义民主“范式”的终结

传统的民主观念把民主等同于多数人的统治,这种主张多数统治的民主理论在当代又被称为"多数主义民主"。英国式两党竞争、"胜者通吃"的决策模式和权力集中的政治制度自产生以来就被视为多数主义民主"范式"的典型代表,备受西方学者的青睐。然而,随着当代民主理论研究的推进和民主实践的发展,多数主义民主的理论和实践之间不仅出现了矛盾还产生了脱节,引发了多数主义民主范式的危机;同时,把民主直接等同于多数统治被认为是错误的观念而且已经对民主的实践造成了严重的危害。由此,一种旨在改变传统民主理论学科中心的错误认识,主张终结多数主义民主范式的呼声逐渐成为当前政治学界尤其是民主理论研究领域的热门话题。     

日本国会选举研究：历史、理论与启示

日本是近代第一个建立宪政民主的非西方国家,其国会选举始于19世纪90年代,先后经历过三个发展阶段,即从战前官僚权威体制下的“规制民主”、战后初期占领体制下的“强制民主”到逐步走向“法制民主”,并被当今各国政治学者公认为“亚洲最成熟的民主体制”。对日本由“移植民主”向“本土民主”转化过程中,国会选举对其民主政治发展重要性的分析评价,能够为我们认识东亚地区民主化进程的前景提供有益线索。今后,“加强公民教育”、“合理管理选举”、“清除选举腐败”是日本选举政治发展中必须注意的三个问题。     

把握先进文化的前进方向捍卫社会主义文化领导权--兼谈大众传媒的社会责任

世纪之交,社会主义中国在前进中面临诸多严峻的问题.面对多元化、全球化的挑战和西方国家的文化渗透,如何促进我国社会主义事业健康有序地发展,是思想文化界所共同关注的问题.鉴于文化对人以及社会的深刻而持久的影响,文章认为,当前摆在我们面前的一个重要任务,就是要在多种文化并存的环境中,把握先进文化的前进方向,捍卫社会主义文化领导权.而作为社会大众思想文化生活中一种重要的存在力量,大众传媒尤其要增强政治意识,坚持正确的舆论导向,在新的社会价值体系构建过程中,起到引导和促进作用;此外,还要重视因特网上的跨文化传播,积极主动地向世界传播我们社会主义国家的声音,争取国际社会广泛的理解和认同.     

Imagining class: A study into material social class position,subjective identification,and voting behavior across Europe

The traditional approach to class voting has largely ignored the question whether material class positions coincide with subjective class identification. Following Sosnaud et al. (2013), this study evaluates party preferences when Europeans’ material and subjective social class do not coincide. Seminal studies on voting behavior have suggested that members of lower classes are more likely to vote for the economic left and cultural right and that higher classes demonstrate the opposite pattern. Yet, these studies have on the one hand overlooked the possibility that there is a mismatch between the material class people can be classified in and the class they think they are part of, and on the other hand the consequences of this discordant class identification on voting behavior. Analyzing the 2009 wave of the European Elections Study, we find that the majority of the Europeans discordantly identify with the middle class, whereas only a minority of the lower and higher classes concordantly identify with their material social class. Further, material class only seems to predict economic voting behavior when it coincides with subjective class; for instance, individuals who have an inflated class identification are more likely to vote for the economic left, even when they materially can be classified as middle or high class. We conclude this paper with a discussion on scholarly debates concerning class and politics.     

美国竞选财政制度初探

美国竞选财政制度是美国政治制度中争议最多的问题之一。由于利益集团政策参与的需求和竞选人竞选的需要 ,美国的竞选捐赠日益加剧 ,捐赠规模日趋膨胀 ,并在一定程度上导致了决策过程中利益代表性的偏差。由此 ,美国早期的法律就对利益集团的竞选捐赠进行限制 ,2 0世纪 4 0年代以来 ,美国关于竞选财政制度改革的立法不断。但改革遇到利益需求和关于合宪性问题等种种障碍 ,步履维艰。美国政治中的这一两难状况是其政治体制所使然 ,有关竞选财政制度改革的争论仍将继续下去。