Informant accuracy in social-network data V. An experimental attempt to predict actual communication from recall data

This paper seeks to discover whether the known inaccuracy of informant recall about their communication behavior can be accounted for by experimentally varying the time period over which recall takes place. The experiment took advantage of a new communications medium (computer conferencing) which enabled us to monitor automatically all the interactions involving a subset of the computer network. The experiment itself was administered entirely by the computer, which interviewed informants and recorded their responses. Variations in time period failed to account for much of the inaccuracy, which continues, as in previous experiments at an unacceptably high level. One positive finding did emerge: although the informants did not know with whom they communicated, the informants en masse seemed to know certain broad facts about the communication pattern. All other findings were negative. For example, it is impossible to predict the people an informant claimed to communicate with but did not; and it is impossible to predict who the five people are that an informant forgot to mention that she or he had communication with. Thus, despite their presumed good intentions, our findings here confirm what we have learned from six previous experiments: What people say about their communications bears no resemblance to their behavior. This suggests that other forms of data gathering, based on questions which require that informants recall their behavior, may well be suspect.     

Foreclosures and crime: A city-level analysis in Southern California of a dynamic process

Although a growing body of research has examined and found a positive relationship between neighborhood crime and home foreclosures, some research suggests this relationship may not hold in all cities. This study uses city-level data to assess the relationship between foreclosures and crime by estimating longitudinal models with lags for monthly foreclosure and crime data in 128 cities from 1996 to 2011 in Southern California. We test whether these effects are stronger in cities with a combination of high economic inequality and high economic segregation; and whether they are stronger in cities with high racial/ethnic heterogeneity and high racial segregation. One month, and cumulative three month, six month, and 12-month lags of foreclosures are found to increase city level crime for all crimes except motor vehicle theft. The effect of foreclosures on these crime types is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of inequality but low levels of economic segregation. The effect of foreclosures on aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and low levels of racial segregation. On the other hand, foreclosures had a stronger effect on larceny and motor vehicle theft when they occurred in a city with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and high levels of racial segregation. There is evidence that the foreclosure crisis had large scale impacts on cities, leading to higher crime rates in cities hit harder by foreclosures. Nonetheless, the economic and racial characteristics of the city altered this effect.     

美英议会预算审议绩效比较:一种历史制度主义的分析范式

对美英经验的比较分析发现:立宪性预算理念、多元否决点的权力结构、融合多元利益表达的程序及减少信息依赖的资源整合为美国预算审议绩效奠定了良好的基石,而历史传统带来的议会预算创议和否决权障碍及实践中逐步走向失衡的权力结构不仅对英国现代议会绩效形成了严峻的挑战,而且还抑制了具体操作程序及辅助资源改革的制度化效力与空间。为避免仅依靠议会自身改革来提升审议绩效的旧有研究的缺陷,后发国家应从预算审议宪政理念的落实,权力结构中预算否决权的合理配置及具有否决力量的公共组织的培育、审议程序及信息资源的完善等关联变量入手进一步提升预算审议绩效。     

Jobs and skills: A multivariate structural approach

In this paper, we illustrate a multivariate structural approach to explaining inequalities in job skills. We argue that skill differences are produced by work structures operating at several levels of analysis, including organizations, occupations, technology, and unions. In addition, background characteristics of individuals are important for allocating men and women to positions in the technical division of labor. We derive measures of two dimensions of job skills (substantive complexity and autonomy) from questionnaires completed by 4567 workers, managers, and supervisors of 54 plants in 7 manufacturing industries in south-central Indiana. We supplement these questionnaire data with information on work structures obtained from interviews with key informants in each plant, which yielded information on the organizational and technological correlates of skill; and measures of occupational activities from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (3rd ed., U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, DC 1965). Our contextual models provide evidence that the different work structures have distinct impacts on the two dimensions of job skills.     

A methodological assessment of the use of key informants

The key informant technique is assessed in terms of the ability of different types of informants to report on various aspects of the social system in which they perform role functions. Role theory suggests that informants occupying a specialized role within a social structure provide greater information on role-related aspects of the structure than informants occupying positions unrelated to the area being investigated. Empirical evidence in support of this assertion is presented.     

Childhood family structure and complexity in partnership life courses

This study investigated the associations between childhood living arrangements and complex adult partnership trajectories. The authors defined first union dissolution as the event initiating a complex partnership life course, and measured the level of complexity using a weighted cumulative index of subsequent partnership episodes. The analyses were based on a representative sample of the German population born in 1971–73 from the German Family Panel and used multivariate hurdle models to estimate the probability of experiencing the initiation of a complex partnership trajectory, as well as the level of complexity. Results showed that respondents who did not grow up with both biological parents (i.e. those who experienced an alternative family structure) had both a greater likelihood of experiencing the dissolution of their own first union, and followed more complex subsequent partnership trajectories. These associations varied across types of (alternative) family structures experienced during childhood and according to the level of parental partnership (in)stability. This study contributes to our understanding of contemporary partnership complexity and its precursors using a long term life course theoretical and methodological frame. We acknowledge that continuities and disruptions in the development of adult (complex) partnership trajectories can be linked to a growing diversity of family structure in childhood. Thereby, we expand knowledge on intergenerational interdependencies of family instability and complexity beyond the reproduction of the event of union dissolution.     

Personal networks of prisoners prior to incarceration: A comparison with the general Dutch population

This study examines inmates’ core discussion network prior to their incarceration. The core discussion network consists of the immediate social circle of relatively strong ties. The aims of the study are twofold: (1) to describe inmates’ core discussion network prior to their incarceration in terms of network structure, relationship quality and embedded socioeconomic resources; (2) to compare inmates’ core discussion network with the core discussion network of the general Dutch population. Data are analyzed from the Prison Project (n = 1909) and the Survey of the Social Networks of the Dutch (n = 394). Compared with the general Dutch population, prior to incarceration, prisoners generally have a core discussion network that is similar to or even better with respect to network structure and relationship quality. However, prisoners’ core discussion network members seem to lack socioeconomic resources.     

American crime drops: Investigating the breaks,dips and drops in temporal homicide

ObjectivesWhile a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.     

关于半总统制体制的类型和稳定性分析

伴随越来越多新兴民主国家在政治转型时实行半总统制,如今半总统制体制日益成为比较政治研究中的重要问题。学界从不同角度对半总统制加以定义并进行类型分析,其中魏玛共和国是历史上的典型案例。魏玛共和国的经验教训和各国的政治实践表明,一国的权力关系结构和制度设计关乎该国政治运行的走向,权力关系结构过度分散和政党政治的过度分化不利于政治的稳定发展,尤其不利于民主基础薄弱的发展中国家政治的稳定发展。     

城市地区旅游化对产业结构升级的影响研究

旅游业是产业关联性极强的优势型综合产业。城市地区旅游化通过刺激消费、增进就业、促进招商以及集群化发展等路径,对产业结构升级产生积极影响。为检验城市地区旅游化对产业结构升级的影响效应,该研究采用2005—2019年我国20个旅游城市的面板数据,利用系统GMM方法进行了实证分析。结果表明,城市地区旅游化的发展在总体上对产业结构升级产生积极的促进作用,但对不同类型城市的产业结构升级效应有所不同,主要表现在:城市地区旅游化对省会城市的产业结构升级具有显著的正向影响,但对其他非省会城市的产业结构升级却未产生显著的促进作用。鉴于此,该研究提出全力推动全域旅游的展开、加快推进具有区域性影响的重大项目建设等政策建议。     

Displacement in new economy labor markets: Post-displacement wage loss in high tech versus low tech cities

While scholars and politicians tout education as the salve to employment disruptions, we argue that the geography of the new economy, and the social closure mechanisms that geography creates, may be just as important as individuals’ characteristics for predicting post-displacement wage loss (or gain). We use data from the 2012 Displaced Workers ement of the Current Population Survey and from the 2010 United States Census to test hypotheses linking local labor markets in different industrial contexts to post-displacement wage loss. Our results point to age as a closure mechanism, and to the partially protective effect of education in high-tech versus low-tech economic sectors. This study is the first to use national level data to examine how employment in high-tech cities influences post-displacement wages. These findings are relevant both for theorizing about the new economy and for public policy.     

Studying neighborhood crime across different macro spatial scales: The case of robbery in 4 cities

Whereas there is a burgeoning literature focusing on the spatial distribution of crime events across neighborhoods or micro-geographic units in a specific city, the present study expands this line of research by selecting four cities that vary across two macro-spatial dimensions: population in the micro-environment, and population in the broader macro-environment. We assess the relationship between measures constructed at different spatial scales and robbery rates in blocks in four cities: 1) San Francisco (high in micro- and macro-environment population); 2) Honolulu (high in micro- but low in macro-environment population); 3) Los Angeles (low in micro- but high in macro-environment population); 4) Sacramento (low in micro- and macro-environment population). Whereas the socio-demographic characteristics of residents further than ½ mile away do not impact robbery rates, the number of people up to 2.5 miles away are related to robbery rates, especially in the two cities with smaller micro-environment population, implying a larger spatial scale than is often considered. The results show that coefficient estimates differ somewhat more between cities differing in micro-environment population compared to those differing based on macro-environment population. It is therefore necessary to consider the broader macro-environment even when focusing on the level of crime across neighborhoods or micro-geographic units within an area.     

Migration and stratification

Migration and stratification are increasingly intertwined. One day soon it will be impossible to understand one without the other. Both focus on life chances. Stratification is about differential life chances - who gets what and why - and migration is about improving life chances - getting more of the good things of life. To examine the interconnections of migration and stratification, we address a mix of old and new questions, carrying out analyses newly enabled by a unique new data set on recent legal immigrants to the United States (the New Immigrant Survey). We look at immigrant processing and lost documents, depression due to the visa process, presentation of self, the race-ethnic composition of an immigrant cohort (made possible by the data for the first time since 1961), black immigration from Africa and the Americas, skin color diversity among couples formed by US citizen sponsors and immigrant spouses, and English fluency among children age 8-12 and their immigrant parents. We find, inter alia, that children of previously illegal parents are especially more likely to be fluent in English, that native-born US citizen women tend to marry darker, that immigrant applicants who go through the visa process while already in the United States are more likely to have their documents lost and to suffer visa depression, and that immigration, by introducing accomplished black immigrants from Africa (notably via the visa lottery), threatens to overturn racial and skin color associations with skill. Our analyses show the mutual embeddedness of migration and stratification in the unfolding of the immigrants’ and their children’s life chances and the impacts on the stratification structure of the United States.     

Social isolation,survey nonresponse,and nonresponse bias: An empirical evaluation using social network data within an organization

Survey researchers have long hypothesized that social isolation negatively affects the probability of survey participation and biases survey estimates. Previous research, however, has relied on proxy measures of isolation, such as being a marginalized group member within a population. We re-examine the relationship between social isolation and survey participation using direct measures of social isolation derived from social network data; specifically, instrumental research and expressive friendship connections among faculty within academic departments. Using a reconceptualization of social isolation, we find that social network isolation is negatively associated with unit response. Among women (a numerical minority group within the organization), we further find that social group isolation (i.e., lacking instrumental network connections to men, the majority group in the organization) is negatively associated with survey participation. Finally, we show that some survey estimates are systematically biased due to nonparticipation from socially isolated people.     

On population comparisons using factor indexes or latent variables

Population comparisons of multivariate models using factor indexes or latent factors are demonstrated to be unsound with current methods of comparative analysis unless one is willing to assume a priori that all of the variances of the latent factors in a model are identical across all populations analyzed. This is an assumption that is probably only rarely found in comparative research. Without this assumption, comparisons are unsound regardless of whether model estimations are made from regression analysis or maximum likelihood techniques. A general method is suggested which proposes to make comparative analyses of factors possible without the assumption of equal variances across populations.     

副省级城市综合韧性评价及障碍因子识别

为了提升副省级城市韧性,探索其可持续发展路径。该文以15个副省级城市为研究对象,运用改进的CRITIC-熵权组合赋权法、TOPSIS法、方差分解法、障碍度模型对2011—2020年15个副省级城市综合韧性进行评价,并对其障碍因子进行识别分析。结果显示:15个副省级城市综合韧性在2011—2020年间呈现波动上升的趋势,整体形势较好;各副省级城市综合韧性、分项韧性排名存在明显差异;从方差分解结果来看,宁波、成都、长春、哈尔滨四个城市的经济韧性和生态韧性对综合韧性的贡献度最大,而其余副省级城市则是经济韧性和社会韧性的贡献度最大;从障碍度结果分析,经济系统和社会系统是制约副省级城市韧性提升的主要障碍系统,对于具体指标,每百人公共图书馆藏书(b₃)和一般公共预算收入(a₄)是大部分副省级城市的主要障碍因子。未来,各副省级城市应依据发展情况着力补齐短板,从完善社会应急保障体系、扩大社会文化产业影响力和增加科教领域的投入等方面增强城市韧性,推动副省级城市实力整体提升。     

区域特质·社区特色·历史轨迹--论区域经济社会发展的历史规定性(以苏州为个案)

以苏州中观区域社会为个案的研究表明,在影响地方经济社会发展的历史规定性中,区域物质和社区特色是至关重要的两个方面.从经济社会结构、人文景观和文化心理要素等侧面反映出的乡土特质,从整体上体现为人类与自然关系的高度协调.从产业结构、空间格局和社会生活诸侧面显现的社区特色,在更深层的意义上,就是文化资源的稀缺性.反观近代以来苏州社会的历史轨迹,不难发现历史规定性无形而深刻的影响力,对于未来区域经济社会的发展样式同样发人深省.     

社群结构研究进展与展望

社群结构是复杂网络研究的主要内容之一,也是社会网络分析发展的新方向。本文从概念演化、探测方法和应用三个方面总结社群结构研究的进展。在给出社群结构和模块性概念的基础上,本文首先分析社群结构与经典社会网络分析凝聚子群分析的异同;然后,探讨社群结构的探测策略,特别是总结基于模块性社群合并的社群结构探测策略的基本方法步骤;接着,总结了社群结构在社会学和管理学中的应用;最后,探讨社群结构研究和应用的可能发展方向。