Discounting and the evaluation of lifesaving programs

The evaluation of lifesaving programs whose benefits extend into the future involves two discounting issues. The intragenerational discounting problem is how to express, in age-j dollars, reductions in an individual's conditional probability of dying at some future age k. Having discounted future lifesaving benefits to the beginning of each individual's life, one is faced with the problem of discounting these benefits to the present—the intergenerational discounting problem. We discuss both problems from the perspectives of cost-benefit and costeffectiveness analyses. These principles are then applied to lifesaving programs that involve a latency period.The authors are, respectively, Associate Professor of Economics, Univesity of Maryland and Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future; and Senior Fellow and Vice President, Resources for the Future. We thank the National Science Foundation for their support under grant DIR-8711083.     

Disclosure of Individualized Research Results: A Precautionary Approach

Assessing and managing risks to participants is a central point of contention in the debate about disclosing individualized research results. Those who favor disclosure of only clinically significant results think that disclosing clinically insignificant results is risky and costly, and that harm prevention should take precedence over other ethical considerations. Those who favor giving participants the option of full disclosure regard these risks as insubstantial, and think that obligations to benefit participants and promote their autonomy and right to know outweigh the obligation to prevent harm or financial considerations. The risks of disclosing clinically insignificant research results are currently not quantifiable, due to lack of empirical data. The precautionary principle provides some insight into this debate because it applies to decision-making concerning risks that are plausible but not quantifiable. A precautionary approach would favor full disclosure of individualized results with appropriate safeguards to prevent, minimize, or mitigate risks to participants, such as: validating testing methods; informing participants about their options for receiving tests results and the potential benefits and risks related to receiving results; assessing participants' comfort with handling uncertainty; providing counseling and advice to participants; following-up with individuals who receive tests results; and forming community advisory boards to help investigators deal with issues related to disclosure.     

Environmental markets in the year 2000

This article examines the prospects for marketable emissions permits in the coming decade. We identify both the reasons that politicians are reluctant to embrace marketable emissions permits as a solution to environmental problems and also changes in the political landscape that could lead to the increased use of this approach. Over the next decade, we believe there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. Selective experimentation with market-based approaches is likely to continue; however, we are not optimistic about the prospects for widespread application of this tool. Moreover, applications of this tool will necessarily reflect important political constraints, thus rendering the tool substantially less effective than the textbook applications examined by economists. An important intellectual challenge is to work on the design of market-based approaches that address political concerns, enhance efficiency, and promote innovation, so that it will be easier to meet the environmental challenges that lie ahead.Mr. Hahn is a Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and Associate Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. Mr. Noll is a Professor of Economics at Stanford University. Hahn's research was supported by a grant from the Decision, Risk and Management Science Program at the National Science Foundation. Noll's research is supported by a grant from the Smith-Richardson Foundation. The authors would like to thank Kip Viscusi for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Queer Youth Space: A Protective Factor for Sexual Minority Youth

Physical, psychological, and social vulnerabilities of sexual minority youth are well documented. Yet factors that protect this population from these risks remain relatively unknown. Previous researchers suggest that (1) a sense of safety, meaningful relationships with others, and positive identity development are protective and (2) social support programs focusing on sexual minority youth (Queer Youth Space) have a positive impact. In this article, Queer Youth Space is explored as a program that may promote protective factors and mediate risks. Theories of attachment, self psychology, and social identity are applied to conceptualize Queer Youth Space and its protective roles. Implications for social work practice and research are discussed.     

Minimal Risk in Pediatric Research: A Philosophical Review and Reconsideration

Despite more than thirty years of debate, disagreement persists among research ethicists about the most appropriate way to interpret the U.S. regulations on pediatric research, specifically the categories of “minimal risk” and a “minor increase over minimal risk.” Focusing primarily on the definition of “minimal risk,” we argue in this article that the continued debate about the pediatric risk categories is at least partly because their conceptual status is seldom considered directly. Once this is done, it becomes clear that the most popular strategy for interpreting “minimal risk”—defining it as a specific set of risks—is indefensible and, from a pragmatic perspective, unlikely to resolve disagreement. Primarily this is because judgments about minimal risk are both normative and heavily intuitive in nature and thus cannot easily be captured by reductions to a given set of risks. We suggest instead that a more defensible approach to evaluating risk should incorporate room for reflection and deliberation. This dispositional, deliberative framework can nonetheless accommodate a number of intellectual resources for reducing reliance on sheer intuition and improving the quality of risk evaluations.     

中国核电安全规制的研究——理论动因、经验借鉴与改革建议

本文针对核电低常规性风险、高灾难性风险的特点,从社会性规制的视角,对核电安全规制进行了供求分析,并从核电安全的外部性和信息不对称两个方面阐述了核电安全规制的理论动因和依据。研究表明,日本核电站的泄露事故带来的危害将直接促使中国公众增加对核电安全规制的强烈需求,进而推动政府相应地增加核电安全规制供给的数量。本文在理论分析基础上,从规制机构、法规体系、规制力量三个方面分析了我国现行的核电安全规制框架,并援引核电发达国家的核电安全规制模式,对我国加强核电安全规制提出了相应的改革建议。     

Understanding long-term environmental risks

How well we manage long-term environmental risks depends on how well we understand them. Whether the risk managers are experts or laypeople, that understanding is typically limited. As a result, people must rely on judgment when making decisions about risks. Estimating how big risks are and how much reducing them is worth is an intellectual skill. After reviewing the behavioral principles that govern how people acquire such skills, this article offers several proposals for facilitating learning abut risks by improving the ways in which scientific data are created or presented. It also describes some pitfalls facing attempts to determine the quality of other people's understanding of risks, whether through direct study or more casual observation.Preparation of this article was supported by National Science Foundation Grant SES-8846459. It is gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed are those of the author.     

Advocacy coalitions and policy change on nuclear power utilization in Taiwan

Before the mid-1980s, the development of nuclear power was regarded as essential to facilitate Taiwan's rapid economic growth. Since 1980s, the feasibility of utilizing nuclear power has been intensively challenged. The policy impact of rise of the anti-nuclear movement and environmental movement in conjunction with democratizing trends is especially evident in the controversy over constructing the Fourth nuclear power plant in Taiwan. Ongoing construction of the plant was halted after the anti-nuclear presidential candidate won in Taiwan's 2000 presidential election. However, the decision to scrap the project was abandoned and the project was resumed in less than four months. This article applies the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to explain and analyze the development of advocacy coalition and policy change on nuclear power utilization in Taiwan. Based on this study, it is argued that the ACF could be more useful for comparative applications if it takes both political context and international influences into account.     

A divergence of opinion: how those involved in child and family social work are responding to the challenges of the Internet and social media

This discussion paper suggests that there is possibly a divergence of opinion taking place within the field of child and family social work and that the stated positions are influencing how practitioners identify and deal with risks and opportunities afforded by the Internet and social media. The suggested divergence is examined and the conclusion drawn is that what is taking place mirrors the fact that the introduction of any new technology inevitably brings with it division and debate. In seeking to understand the reaction to digital technology, consideration is given to a series of wider social discourses on childhood and risk, which includes the controversial notion that the profession is a harbinger of moral panic and that the management of risk has been broadened from child protection to child safety. The discussion paper concludes by calling for child and family social work practitioners to have a balanced debate that needs to be informed not only by current research but also by an open and honest discussion about personal use and an acknowledgement that there will be difficult moral and ethical questions to work through.     

Direct democracy and minority rights: same-sex marriage bans in the U.S

Objectives. A common critique of direct democracy posits that minority rights are endangered by citizen legislative institutions. By allowing citizens to directly create public policy, these institutions avoid the filtering mechanisms of representative democracy that provide a check on the power of the majority. Empirical research, however, has produced conflicting results that leave the question of direct democracy's effect on minority rights open to debate. This article seeks to empirically test this critique using a comparative, dynamic approach.Methods. I examine the diffusion of same-sex marriage bans in the United States using event-history analysis, comparing direct-democracy states to non-direct-democracy states.Results. The results show that direct-democracy states are significantly more likely than other states to adopt same-sex marriage bans.Conclusion. The findings support the majoritarian critique of direct democracy, suggesting that the rights of minority groups are at relatively higher risk under systems with direct democracy.     

Beyond zero-sum: game theory and national forest management

Following two decades of bitter struggle, the current debate over management of the U.S. national forests is characterized by animosity, controversy, and seemingly intractable gridlock. This view has led some to characterize the current management process a situation of pure conflict or a zero-sum game. In this article, we develop a game-theoretic model based on an argument that national forest policymaking is a game between the U.S. National Forest Service and Environmentalists and that this game is not zero-sum. The model is used to account for outcomes associated with contemporary management policy and to examine some recent changes to the game's rules and how this may affect outcomes. The analysis shows that some changes will have little to no effect on outcomes, while others have a significant potential to do so.     

Disclosure of individualized research results: a precautionary approach

Assessing and managing risks to participants is a central point of contention in the debate about disclosing individualized research results. Those who favor disclosure of only clinically significant results think that disclosing clinically insignificant results is risky and costly, and that harm prevention should take precedence over other ethical considerations. Those who favor giving participants the option of full disclosure regard these risks as insubstantial, and think that obligations to benefit participants and promote their autonomy and right to know outweigh the obligation to prevent harm or financial considerations. The risks of disclosing clinically insignificant research results are currently not quantifiable, due to lack of empirical data. The precautionary principle provides some insight into this debate because it applies to decision-making concerning risks that are plausible but not quantifiable. A precautionary approach would favor full disclosure of individualized results with appropriate safeguards to prevent, minimize, or mitigate risks to participants, such as: validating testing methods; informing participants about their options for receiving tests results and the potential benefits and risks related to receiving results; assessing participants' comfort with handling uncertainty; providing counseling and advice to participants; following-up with individuals who receive tests results; and forming community advisory boards to help investigators deal with issues related to disclosure.     

Network news coverage of school shootings

School shootings have become a subject of intense national debate. The present study is a content analysis and interpretation of television evening newscast coverage of these crimes. The focus is on ABC, CBS, and NBC nightly newscasts. Findings from this research support two propositions: that the most violent school shootings receive the most media coverage, and that the reporting of school shooting cases on network newscasts reflect the “herd mentality” nature of the media.     

Healthcare Financing in the African Countries of the Eastern Mediterranean

Healthcare financing is in crisis in most African countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region of WHO. In low-income countries, spending on health is very low and populations are not protected against financial risks. Middle- and high- income countries are suffering from inappropriate use of resources devoted to health and lack of use of economic tools in priority setting. As coverage by insurance is not well developed, concerns over equity in access are voiced in most countries. Planned policy changes or health sector reforms are designed to address these challenges. The approaches used are based on capacity building, institutional development and provision of needed expertise. International agencies are providing technical support to help in setting the reform agenda, in managing the planned changes and in monitoring the impact. Efforts are being made to strengthen national capabilities in developing national health account functions and in promoting the use of economic tools such as cost-effective analysis, costing and cost analysis in health system management. A particular interest is paid to the development and strengthening of health insurance, and particularly microinsurance for uncovered populations. Countries of the subregion are encouraged to make better use of their training and research institutions and to facilitate the development of networks of health professionals dealing with health system development, supported by international agencies and development banks.     

The marginal value of job safety: A contingent valuation study

This article estimates the marginal value of safety based on contingent values obtained in a labor-market-oriented national random-sample mail survey. Thus, worker preferences for safety are assessed directly, in contrast to the hedonic price method that has been used almost exclusively in related studies. Key aspects of this article are that (1) contingent values are obtained for small changes in risks of job-related fatal accidentsperceived by respondents, and (2) relationships are analyzed between respondents' marginal safety values and their income, socioeconomic/demographic characteristics, union membership status, and initial levels of risk faced.     

The Chairperson of Child Care Reviews in Scotland: Implications for the Role of Reviews in the Decision Making Process

Correspondence to Dr A. J. Kendrick, Research Fellow, Department of Political Science and Social Policy, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. Summary This article is based upon the first stage of a research projecton statutory child care reviews in Scotland and explores therole of reviews in the decision-making processes for childrenin local authority care. We have argued that the position ofchairperson of reviews has an important role in locating childcare reviews in the organïzational structures of the SocialWork Departments. The designation of the chairperson also hasimplications for the objectivity of the child care review. Thenature of conclusions of child care reviews is also exploredand we show that this is a complex issue reflecting the childcare review's relationships to other decision-making bodiesand the manner in which the delegation of authority for thechairing of reviews is structured. While this research is basedupon the twelve Scottish Social Work Departments we believethat the issues discussed have a general relevance.     

Patterns of Informal Help and Caregiving in Sweden: A Thirteen-Year Perspective

This article analyses informal help and caregiving in Sweden with a focus on the scope and trends of change over time. The discussion is based on the results of three national surveys and of one survey conducted in the county of Stockholm. The results indicated that informal help and caregiving was common throughout the period under study. In the 1990s, the figures were fairly stable, while from the late 1990s to 2005 there seems to have been a dramatic increase in the prevalence of such support. Two interpretative perspectives are used to discuss this pattern. One locates its point of departure in recent welfare state changes and in the substitution argument, according to which cuts in welfare services put more pressure on people to provide informal help and care. The second perspective relates to the present debate on civil society and to its possible role in contemporary society. According to the civil society perspective, an increase in the prevalence of informal help and caregiving might be interpreted as an expression of growing civic involvement 'in its own right', without a straightforward and simple relationship to changes in the welfare state. It is argued in the article that the two frames of interpretation should not be viewed as mutually exclusive, but rather that they represent two partly complementary approaches to the understanding of the complex dynamics of unpaid work in contemporary Swedish society.     

The structure of random utility models

I am grateful to Joseph B. Kadane for numerous constructive suggestions offered during discussions of this research. The financial sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation through grant DOT-OS-4006 is also acknowledged. The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the author.Assistant Professor of Economics, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University.     

Social exclusion and neighborhood support: a case study of empty-nest elderly in urban shanghai

The phenomenon of empty-nest elderly (ENE) has become a significant social issue in China. In this research on ENEs in urban Shanghai, a coastal city in China, case studies were undertaken through in-depth semistructured interviews to examine the social exclusion risks ENEs may face and the influence of neighborhood support on such risks. The results show 5 aspects of social exclusion ENEs are experiencing. Moreover, the neighborhood has the potential for providing different forms of support to reduce social exclusion risks. The research and service implications of our findings for promoting the holistic well-being of ENEs in China are discussed.     

Lessons from the American federal-state unemployment insurance system for a European unemployment benefits system

This article reviews practices in the United States (US) federal-state unemployment insurance (UI) system regarding applicant eligibility, benefit generosity, benefit financing and emergency measures with the aim of revealing lessons for a possible European unemployment benefit system (EUBS) for European Union (EU) Member States. We overview the US system for UI and examine important areas of federal leadership. While the US system offers some good ideas for setting up an EUBS, there are also lessons in some shortcomings of the US experience. We overview existing national UI systems in the EU and review the debate on an EUBS in the EU. We identify areas of risk for individual and institutional moral hazard in a multi-tiered UI system and give examples of monitoring methods and incentives to ameliorate such risks. We suggest approaches for gradual system development, encouraging lower-tier behaviour, benefit financing, and responses to regional and system-wide labour market crises.