Intradimensional Single-Peakedness and the Multidimensional Arrow Problem

Arrow's account (1951/1963) of the problem of social choice is based upon the assumption that the preferences of each individual in the relevant group are expressible by a single ordering. This paper lifts that assumption and develops a multidimensional generalization of Arrow's framework. I show that, like Arrow's original framework, the multidimensional generalization is affected by an impossibility theorem, highlighting not only the threat of dictatorship of a single individual, but also the threat of dominance of a single dimension. In particular, even if preferences are single-peaked across individuals within each dimension – a situation called intradimensional single-peakedness – any aggregation procedure satisfying Arrow-type conditions will make one dimension dominant. I introduce lexicographic hierarchies of dimensions as a class of possible aggregation procedures under intradimensional single-peakedness. The interpretation of the results is discussed.     

Environmental Consequences of the Community Support Framework 1994–99 in Spain

In this article we consider the energy and environmental implications of the extra GDP growth that the CSF, for the period 1994–99, is capable of entailing. In doing so, we have developed an illustration of the so-called three Es approach: economy–energy–environment. The extra growth induced by the CSF package and its incremental effects on energy consumption and CO₂ emissions have been evaluated against an energy–economy baseline provided by the HERMIN-Spain model and the Spanish energy plan (PEN). The most salient aspect of the analysis performed is that the energy-saving and emission-cutting margins embodied in the so-called PEN scenario (due to energy substitution and energy efficiency) are rapidly exhausted when growth accelerates, for example, due to a CSF like shock. However, these margins also reveal the promising prospects of progrowth strategies with high energy-efficiency content.     

Product evaluation bias under minimal group situations

The present study was designed to identify the source of product evaluation bias. Three experiments were conducted to see if the evaluation bias occur in the minimal group situation defined by [Tajifel, H., Billig, M., Bundy, R., & Flament, C. (1971). Social categorization and intergroup behavior. European Journal of Social Psychology, 1, 149–178], and to determine the factors responsible for making evaluation bias. Relative measure of product evaluation played a major role in producing an evaluation bias in minimal group situation. Similarly, relative measure of distribution was a critical factor affecting distribution bias. The possible boundary condition of [Tajifel, H., Billig, M., Bundy, R., & Flament, C. (1971). Social categorization and intergroup behavior. European Journal of Social Psychology, 1, 149–178] minimal group situation in evaluation bias were also discussed.     

`Sex-Equal' Stable Matchings

The paper defines a measure on the set of stable matchings in the marriage problem. This measure is based on the minimization of the envy difference between the sets of men and women, while preserving stability and selects stable matchings with the least conflict of interest between both groups of agents. The solution concept proposed is called Sex-equal Matching (SEM) and the paper also provides an algorithm to compute the set of SEM.     

Where have the social sciences come in understanding racial discrimination? An economist’s viewpoint

Following a brief assessment of the postwar literature on discrimination, this essay tracks black economic progress from 1940–2000. During the postwar period, social scientists studying discrimination have focused on three areas- the origins of prejudice, antidiscrimination policy and measuring whether equals are treated unequally. The emphasis in the literature, particularly in economics, has been on the third area. It is well documented that during 1940–80, blacks made significant relative economic progress. The consensus in the literature is that this progress was due to a significant narrowing of the racial educational gap, improved quality of black schools and the migration of blacks to the North. However, little is known about the extent of racial discrimination during this period. The 1980–2000 period is characterized by nearly complete stagnation in black economic progress and social scientists know relatively little about the reasons for the stagnation. The extent of racial discrimination during the later period is virtually unknown. The uncertainty about the post-1980 period can only be resolved through scrutiny of newly emerging data sets.     

The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

The effects of free trade areas on non-members: Modelling Kemp–Vanek admissibility

A multi-sector multi-country Numerical General Equilibrium model is used to endogenously determine the trade taxes that FTA members need to charge on non-member trade so that after the FTA is formed, FTA-member trade volumes with non-members remain at their pre-FTA level. We apply the notion of Kemp–Vanek admissibility in McMillan [McMillan, J. (1993), Does regional integration foster open trade? Economic theory and GATT's Article XXIV” In Anderson, K. & R. Blackhurst (Eds.), Regional Integration and the Global Trading System. London: Harvester-Wheatsheaf] to construct an FTA which does not make non-members of the FTA worse off, ensuring that the FTA is necessarily a building block and not a stumbling block to global free trade. We implement the path-independent welfare decomposition in Harrison et al. [Harrison, G., Rutherford, T. & Wooton, I. (1993). An alternative welfare decomposition for customs unions. Canadian Journal of Economics, 26(4), 961–68]. Results of such experiments are relevant to the current debate under the WTO's Doha Round of trade negotiations over GATT (1994) Article XXIV which evaluates the consistency of FTAs with the WTO.     

Do broad money, output, and prices stand for a stable relationship in India?

This study investigates the stability of the relationship among M3 money, output, and prices. The empirical results derived from conventional stability tests, cointegration and error correction models and a test for structural break in a cointegrating vector provide evidence for the existence of a fairly stable relationship among these variables during 1951–1952 to 2000–2001. The evidence suggests that the growth of M3 money can be used as one of the potential indicators of future movement in prices within the multiple indicators framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, evidence regarding the short run dynamic adjustment among these variables indicates that active monetary policy to stabilize short run fluctuation in prices must be handled with caution, as it would amplify rather than moderate price fluctuations in the long run.     

Transmissions of real economic shocks across the Pacific Rim economies

We use Asian International Input–Output Tables 1995 in measuring trade dependencies of 10 Pacific Rim economies within a regional general equilibrium model. We develop two sets of metrics in measuring the trade dependencies of the economies. First, we use final demand elasticity of exports in measuring the sensitivities of the economies in the model to autonomous changes in the final demand in any other economy in the region. Second, we use a final-demand-weighted index of export elasticities that are induced by variations in the final demand vector of any economy in the model as indicators of the strength of the shocks transmitted across countries.The estimated coefficients have important policy implications. First, these coefficients identify the most vulnerable sectors of the economies in terms of the export/import dependency. Second, these coefficients may be readily used in bilateral and regional trade negotiations. Using these coefficients, policy makers can provide mutual trade concessions in dampening the effects of real and financial shocks transmitted from the trading partners.     

Monotonicity of power and power measures

Monotonicity is commonly considered an essential requirement for power measures; violation of local monotonicity or related postulates supposedly disqualifies an index as a valid yardstick for measuring power. This paper questions if such claims are really warranted. In the light of features of real-world collective decision making such as coalition formation processes, ideological affinities, a priori unions, and strategic interaction, standard notions of monotonicity are too narrowly defined. A power measure should be able to indicate that power is non-monotonic in a given dimension of players' resources if – given a decision environment and plausible assumptions about behaviour – itis non-monotonic.     

Impossibility theorems for normal form games

Two recent papers (Cubitt and Sugden, 1994; Samuelson, 1992) have established impossibility results which cast doubt on the coherence of the assumption of common knowledge of rationality'. It is shown that the Cubitt–Sugden result is the more powerful of the two impossibilities. Second, it is proved that the existence of a quasi-strict equilibrium is sufficient to construct sets which satisfy the Cubitt–Sugden axioms. This fact is used to establish that their impossibility result cannot arise in 2-player games. Finally, it is shown that if a weak symmetry postulate is added, a new impossibility result arises for this class of games.     

Economic globalization and violent civil conflict: Is openness a pathway to peace?

There has been little systematic assessment of the impact of globalization on armed conflict within states. Drawing from bargaining theories of conflict, we posit that the global marketplace functions as an “audience” that rewards or punishes the policy choices of states. Globalization, which connotes an increased exposure to this marketplace, increases the relevance of the “costs” that this “audience” may impose. These prospective costs thus encourage peace and stability, as states that are integrated into the global economy have more to lose by instigating and sustaining violent conflict within their borders. Employing a two-stage Heckman Model, we assess the impact of various facets of globalization, including access to information, trade, foreign investment and aid flows, on intrastate conflict within the developing countries for 1990–1996.     

Three models of OPEC leadership and policy in the aftermath of Iran

Collapse of the Shah's regime has transformed Iran's attitude regarding oil production policy. The nature of OPEC leadership is changing as well. Three models examine the nature of this leadership inside OPEC: (1) the conventional price leadership model, (2) a model emphasizing a concept of egalitarian leadership, and (3) a team model composed of coalitions. The three models establish the limits within which OPEC leadership is exercised. A composite model drawing upon all three sets of results suggests that Saudi Arabia shapes cartel policy not by itself, but through a dominant coalition of states. For most of the period 1969–1978 this coalition has been stable. Following the unsettling changes of 1973, cooptation of Iran into the dominant coalition in 1974 was an important step in achieving a new level of stability. But during the turbulence of regime transformation in Iran, the nature of the governing coalition appears to have changed. One consequence may be that in the future Saudi Arabia will yield more willingly to arguments heard within OPEC on behalf of upwards price pressure, especially in an atmosphere of growing political isolation and overall tight supply.     

To be,or not to be,that is the question: An empirical study of the WTP for an increased life expectancy at an advanced age

This study reports an attempt to measure the value of an increased survival probability at advanced ages. It turns out that the average willingness to pay for a program which would increase the expected length of life by one year, conditional on having survived to the age of 75 years, is lower than $1,500. The willingness to pay increases with a person's age, but at a low and seemingly constant rate (1–4 percent per year).     

Unemployment, Wage Pressure and Sectoral Shifts: Permanent and Temporary Consequences of Intersectoral Shocks

The main purpose of this study is to examine the effect of allocative disturbances using Italian labour market data and a VECM (vector error correction model). In order to measure sectoral shifts in labour demand, we use Neumann-Topel's [Neumann, G.R., & Topel, R.H. (1991). Employment risk, diversification, and unemployment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106:1341–1365] employment-based dispersion index. In searching for a restricted cointegration space, we set down, and identify a stylized version of the battle of the mark-ups model. Lilien [Lilien, D. (1982). Sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment. Journal of Political Economy 90:777–793] argued that an important part of cyclical unemployment comes from permanent shifts in the composition of labour demand. Our findings emphasize that an important source of the persistence of unemployment comes from sectoral shifts.     

The Instruction set of Questionnaires can Affect the Structure of the Data: Application to Self-Rated State Anxiety

The present study tested the assumption that self-ratings, such as those used for measuring state anxiety, do not measure a one-dimensional transcendent entity but involve decisions based on a multi-dimensional judgment. Two groups of subjects were presented with a balanced nine-item state anxiety questionnaire. Each group received a different set of instructions (a standard set and an altered instruction set suggesting unidimensionality of the questions in the questionnaire). It was hypothesized that this change in instructions would impact the structure of the data. The impact of the instructions was detectable at the level of the observed correlation between the negative and positive composites, Cohen's (1988) q=–0.27$. A multigroup confirmatory factor analysis showed that positive and negative wording factors correlated more strongly when unidimensionality was suggested than when standard instructions were used, q=–0.54. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Ordinal equivalence of power notions in voting games

In this paper, we are concerned with the preorderings (SS) and (BC) induced in the set of players of a simple game by the Shapley–Shubik and the Banzhaf–Coleman's indices, respectively. Our main result is a generalization of Tomiyama's 1987 result on ordinal power equivalence in simple games; more precisely, we obtain a characterization of the simple games for which the (SS) and the (BC) preorderings coincide with the desirability preordering (T), a concept introduced by Isbell (1958), and recently reconsidered by Taylor (1995): this happens if and only if the game is swap robust, a concept introduced by Taylor and Zwicker (1993). Since any weighted majority game is swap robust, our result is therefore a generalization of Tomiyama's. Other results obtained in this paper say that the desirability relation keeps itself in all the veto-holder extensions of any simple game, and so does the (SS) preordering in all the veto-holder extensions of any swap robust simple game.     

Black portraits in African-American literature: A perpective from 1920–1996, including the midwest

What is the effect of sociocultural conditioning in creating black portraits in African-American literature? As twentieth century cultural attitudes change, stereotyped portraits have evolved to more individualized portraits. The question of how these changes have occurred caused me to research the “spirit or ethos” of selected black literature from 1920–1996. After screening various works, I selected authors representing the Harlem Renaissance 1920–1930; the Depression Era 1930–1940; World War II and the Post-War Period 1940–1960; Civil Rights/Black Power Movement 1960–1970; and Contemporary Literature 1970–1996. The results show these particular qualities in African-American Literature: use of explicit, distinctive language and folk idioms; protests against dehumanization and victimization; awakened moral and racial consciousness; emphasis on cultural nationalism; rebellion against racism, and a private search for self-realization by the characters.     

Is the long-term reduction in occupational sex segregation still continuing in the United States?

This research note uses comparable data on 13 broad occupational categories from the Current Population Survey to analyze changes in job segregation between men and women over the period 1972–2002. I find that the Sex Segregation Index declined by about 10 percentage points from 43.96% in 1972 to 34.10% in 2002. The long-term reduction in occupational sex segregation in the United States continued during the period 1993–2002. However, it did so at a slower pace than in the two previous decades. I also find that the pattern of changes in the sex composition of occupations and in the occupational structure that contributed to the decline in the Sex Segregation Index over the period 1972–2002 substantially shifted during the period 1993–2002. The sex composition effect represented about 65% of the reduction in segregation during the period 1972–1983 while it accounted for only about 25% during the period 1993–2002.     

Fear of Ruin

This paper offers interpretations and applications of the “fear of ruin” coefficient (Aumann and Kurz, 1977, Econometrica). This coefficient is useful for analyzing the behavior of expected utility maximizers when they face binary lotteries with the same worse outcome. Comparative statics results of “more fear of ruin” are derived. The partial ordering induced by the fear of ruin coefficient is shown to be weaker than that induced by the Arrow-Pratt coefficient. JEL Classification: D81