Estimates of induced abortion in urban North Carolina

In 1965, Warner developed an interviewing procedure designed to eliminate evasive answer bias when questions of a sensitive nature are asked. He called the procedure ‘randomized response.’ The authors have been studying the technique for several years and, in this paper, are reporting some of the estimates of induced abortion in urban North Carolina using randomized response. Estimates of the proportion of women having an abortion during the past year among women 18–44 years of age are reported. For the study population indices were developed relating induced abortion to total conceptions for whites and nonwhites. The illegal abortion rate per 100 conceptions was estimated to be 14.9 for whites and 32.9 for nonwhites. Estimates of the proportion of women having an abortion during their lifetime among women 18 years old or over are also shown. Among ever married women, the proportion having an abortion during their lifetime declined as education increased. Estimates were high for women with 5 or more pregnancies. Most of the respondents stated that they were satisfied that the randomized response approach would not reveal their personal situation. Furthermore, they did not think their friends would truthfully respond to adirect question regarding abortion.     

The analysis of linkages in demographic theory

Many seemingly different questions that arise in the analysis of population change can be phrased as the same technical question: How, within a given demographic model, would variable y change if the age- or time-specific function f were to change arbitrarily in shape and intensity? At present demography lacks the machinery to answer this question in analytical and general form. This paper suggests a method based on modern functional calculus for deriving closed-form expressions for the sensitivity of demographic variables to changes in input functions or schedules. It uses this “linkage method” to obtain closed-form expressions for the response of the intrinsic growth rate, birth rate, and age composition of a stable population to arbitrary marginal changes in its age patterns of fertility and mortality. It uses it also to obtain expressions for the transient response of the age composition of a nonstable population to time-varying changes in the birth sequence, and to age-specific fertility and mortality patterns that change over time. The problem of “bias” in period vital rates is also looked at.     

The Well-Being of the Canadian Arctic Inuit: The Relevant Weight of Economy in the Happiness Equations

Which of the three dimensions of Allardt’s model, “having, loving, and being”, best predicts the incidence of subjective feeling of well-being among the Canadian Arctic Inuit adults? To answer this question, two logistic regression equations have been constructed, one based on a negative assessment of well-being (feeling of despair), and the other on a positive assessment (satisfaction with life in the community). Each of them took first the form of a global model, and then of three scale models, one for each dimension of the Allardt’s model. The equations are likely to be more effective for predicting the incidence of Inuit’s feeling of satisfaction than for anticipating their feeling of despair. Furthermore, the “being” scale model is the one that will have contributed most to the predictive performance of the global model. In other words, what the Inuit “ARE” contributes more to the incidence of their satisfaction with life than what they “HAVE” or what they “LOVE”.     

Income sufficiency v. poverty Results from the United States and The Netherlands

The purpose of this paper is to further the understanding of subjective measures used to assess poverty and to add to the literature on poverty measurement methodology. In particular, the paper focuses on the minimum income question (MIQ) first proposed by Goedhart and colleagues (1977). Data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and from a Dutch newspaper survey are used. The primary contribution of the paper is the inclusion of household expenditures as additional explanatory variables of minimally necessary income. Significant differences between the coefficients of several categories of expenditures, particularly for leisure, appear to reveal differences in the interpretation of the minimum income question by respondents. Thus, we question the underlying assumption of the MIQ that everyone adheres the same welfare meaning to the phrase “minimally necessary income,” and conclude that the resulting thresholds should not be used as to measure poverty before further research has been carried out to explore what respondents are thinking when they answer questions such as the MIQ.     

Use of a Telephone Screener to Identify a Probability Sample of Gays,Lesbians, and Bisexuals

Abstract

Objectives. To examine public response to a telephone screener used to identify a probability sample of lesbians, gays, and bisexuals.

Methods.A telephone screener was designed to provide a representative sample of self-identified lesbians, gays, and bisexuals (LGB) in the 30 central cities of the 15 largest Consolidated Metropolitan Areas.

Results. Of 14,458 households contacted, 11,612 completed at least part of the survey. Of these, only 2.6% refused or responded “don't know” to the sexual orientation screener question. Respondents from the northeast were more reluctant to answer than respondents from the west.

Conclusions. The use of a screener on a national telephone survey to screen households for self-identified lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults was a successful way to generate a representative sample.     

AGING,RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY IN A MODEL OF INTEREST GROUPS

The assessment of the degree of genetic variation in a natural population, and the nature of that variation, is of central importance in both theoretical and applied population studies. Two “variance” results in population genetics theory are presented. For the first, expressions are found for the expected difference in the estimates of genetic variation in a population obtained by two investigators sampling from the same population in the same generation. The second result concerns the question of whether the degree of genetic variation in a population is best estimated by using the number of alleles observed in a sample of genes or by the number of polymorphic sites observed in the sample. For some combinations of the actual degree of variation and the sample size the former is preferred while for other combinations the latter is preferred. The reason for this is discussed.     

The Political Use and Abuse of the “Pedophile”

ABSTRACT

The cognitive/affective construct designated by the term “pedophile” is delineated on the basis of how he is presented in the popular media. His salient characteristics are listed and then examined in the light of scientific and historical data. The “pedophile” is discovered to be a “social construct that floats in the thin air of fantasy.” Since the truth-value of the construct “pedophile” approaches zero, we are confronted with the question of why he continues to be such a central and emotionally fraught aspect of American culture. The answer to this question is found in his political usefulness. Specifically, the religious right uses him to further its agenda of sexual repression, and the political right uses him to dismantle the machinery of a free society.     

Yea-saying and mood-of-the-day effects in self-reported quality of life

This paper focuses on some of the complications that may arise from errors of measurement in quality of life (QOL) scales based on self-report. It is argued that systematic errors as well as random errors (specifically in the shape of mood-of-the-day effects) will tend to suppress, mask or “wash out” statistical associations between “objective”, sociologically relevant, indicators of well-being and self-reported quality of life. Results from a Norwegian sample of middle-aged and old participants in a health screening operation (N=610) are reported. The findings indicate that response acquiescence (“yea-saying”) may be a source of systematic error even in balanced QOL-scales, and that this bias may lead one to underestimate QOL among the well-educated and overestimate it among older respondents. Utilizing over-time data we are able to show that self-reported QOL appears particularly vulnerable to mood-of-the-day effects among younger females. Implications for sociological research on subjective well-being are pointed out.     

The Influence of Political Jurisdiction,Age, and Sex on Handholding in Public by Same-Sex Couples

Three hundred-forty lesbians and 62 gay males, largely from North America and in partnered relationships, completed online surveys that explored what handholding means to same-sex couples. The data suggest that lesbians in the United States are more likely now than ¼ century ago to hold hands in public spaces. Younger lesbians are more likely to hold hands in public than older lesbians, and Canadian lesbians hold hands more often in public than American lesbians. In response to the question, “What does handholding mean to you?,” 26% of the female respondents from North America overtly referred to public handholding as either a political act or a risky behavior. The number of comments of that nature was similar, regardless of whether the lesbians resided in the United States or Canada. Data suggest that full acceptance of same-sex couples in public spaces has not yet occurred, even in jurisdictions where same-sex couples have the same legal rights as heterosexual couples. Although the sample size for males was too small to analyze the influence of age or political jurisdiction on public handholding, males, in general, were significantly less likely than females to view handholding as a means of staying “connected” with their partners.     

Attitude strength moderates adverse effects to questionnaire design

ABSTRACT

The presentation and visual design of the “don’t know” category in rating scales on respondents’ behavior may have ambivalent effects. The hypothesis is that attitude strength toward the topic influences the respondents’ sensitivity to the graphical design of the scale. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire conducted among 307 German university students contained an experimental variation of the presentation of a “don’t know” category and its visual design. A multinomial logistic regression shows that presenting a “don’t know” category drives respondents toward extreme categories. The visual design of the “don’t know” category influences the distribution of responses, all the more that the respondents’ attitudes toward the item topic are weak.     

The stability and sensitivity of subjective well-being measures

A longitudinal investigation of the stability and sensitivity of several subjective social indicators is presented. Over a seven year period, data collected from 93 Canadians indicated moderate stability for measures of enjoyment, satisfaction, and life quality. When respondents were divided into “change” and “no change” groups on the basis of their self-reported health status, the self-anchoring ladder of present life quality was found to be sensitive to change. Implications of this methodological inquiry are examined.     

A two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table

The “problem of the sexes” has been one of trying to reconcile inconsistent male and female demographic rates. The present paper deals with that question in the context of a two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table. A “rectangular” population, with equal numbers of persons in each age-sex group, is introduced as a standard, and a standardization relationship expressed in equation (9) relates changes in rectangular population rates to changes in age-sex composition. The standardization relationship is shown to satisfy a number of desirable properties and produce a realistic two-sex model. The standardization approach is then applied to data from Sweden for 1973, and the results and their implications are discussed. In particular, it is seen that the total number of marriages in a two-sex population neither is nor should be bounded by the total numbers of marriages in the associated male and female one-sex nuptiality-mortality tables.     

“I’m Not like That,So Am I Gay?” The Use of Queer-Spectrum Identity Labels Among Minor-Attracted People

ABSTRACT

Largely based on an erroneous belief that individuals who are preferentially attracted to minors are necessarily sex offenders, queer communities have distanced themselves from this population over the past several decades. There are now those who object to the use of labels such as “gay” and “queer” by minor-attracted people (MAPs), raising the question, “to whom do queer-spectrum identity labels belong?” I engage with this question using data from my research with 42 MAPs, exploring their uses of queer-spectrum identity labels and the conflicts they have encountered regarding their use of these terms. I then discuss the potential consequences of accepting the use of these labels by MAPs.     

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed.     

Abortion,Family Planning,and Population Policy: Prospects for the Common‐Ground Approach

For the past several decades those engaged in shaping the Program of Action documents at international conferences on population have muted their voices when the topic of abortion has been raised. In a desire to side‐step entanglement in a bitter debate over the morality of abortion, great care has been taken to define “family planning” in ways that explicitly exclude abortion. The “common‐ground” approach to treating abortion can be summarized in two directives found in all contemporary international population documents: “in no case should abortion be promoted as a method of family planning”; and all governments should work “to reduce the recourse to abortion through expanded and improved family‐planning services.” This article has three goals: first, to examine the appropriateness of these directives with respect to what is currently known about the relationship between abortion, family planning, and population policy; second, to trace how this “contraception‐only” definition of family planning became de rigueur at international population conferences; and third, to discuss the prospects for the emergence of a more appropriate “common‐ground” approach to abortion and population policy.     

Life Satisfaction Judgments and Item-Order Effects Across Cultures

We conducted two studies to investigate the item-order effect on life satisfaction judgments. In Study 1, Japanese and American participants completed various life-domain satisfaction items either before or after completing general life satisfaction items. American respondents weighed the best life domains more strongly than Japanese respondents, in particular when they answered domain satisfaction items before making life satisfaction judgments. Overall, Japanese tended to weigh the worst life domains more heavily when making life satisfaction judgments than Americans. We hypothesized that the Japanese patterns of life satisfaction judgments come from the chronic attention to others’ perspective. To examine this hypothesis in Study 2, Japanese participants were exposed to either the “other are not watching” or the “other are watching” manipulation. As expected, when Japanese participants were led to believe that “others are not watching,” they judged their overall life satisfaction based more heavily on the best life domains (like Americans in Study 1).     

马尔可夫链-蒙特卡罗方法与人口学研究

本文概略介绍了用于粒子物理学研究的马尔可夫链一蒙特卡罗方法（MCMC）移植到人口学这个复杂系统研究的思想和方法，同时还介绍了马尔可夫链一蒙特卡罗方法在人口学应用中的重要工具和手段，如随机数、人口分布函数、人口样本的随机抽样和用马尔可夫链一蒙特卡罗方法进行人口仿真研究的简略过程及标题式介绍了用此方法做过的一些工作。     

Kognitive Prozesse und Antwortverhalten in einer Internet-Befragung

So far, certain problems of web surveys have received great attention: Coverage problems, sampling issues and response rates as well as screen design and usability issues. With some of the disadvantages mentioned diminishing, web surveys are increasingly adopted by survey researchers. In terms of the validity of web surveys early studies suggested that — controlling for other sources of survey error — little differences are to be expected in terms of response distributions. However, little insight is available regarding the cognitive processes at work in a respondent’s mind when answering a survey question on the internet. We assume that the cognitive capacity available when answering a survey question is impaired by the respondent’s navigational efforts when working through the questionnaire. Comparing the navigational tasks in a paper and pencil survey and a web survey, the later is considered to be more demanding compared with a paper questionnaire. Reading and flipping through pages is a task that can be done with little distraction from the question answer process. By contrast, browsing through an online form using mouse and buttons while reading is more demanding and distracting for the respondent. Thus, working through an online survey reduces the respondent’s attention for the question answer process. In this paper we present results from a large scale field experiment (n = 5,000) on measurement error in mixed mode survey (p&p and online) among the German youth conducted in spring of 2001. In this survey, 5 experiments on measurement error were incorporated: 1 experiment on question order, 2 experiments on response categories, and 1 experiment on response order in long lists and 1 experiment on social desirability. The results suggest that measurement effects are generally smaller in the web portion of the survey. In the conclusions the paper discusses the question whether or not we need to worry about the respondent’s redued atteniton to the survey questions under web conditions.     

美国老年人口变动特征及其影响分析

虽然近10来年美国老年人口的增势减缓,但随着"婴儿潮"人口逐渐进入老龄阶段,美国老年人口问题将渐趋突出,势必影响美国社会经济乃至政治各个层面,使社会福利制度面临更大的挑战。我国人口变动的某些特征与美国有相似之处,美国政府应对人口老龄化的措施对我国有一定的借鉴意义。