Trade liberalization and factor prices: An application to the U.S. manufacturing sector

The effects of a trade policy on the prices of productive factors have important policy implications, particularly with regard to trade liberalization and protection. This paper examines the empirical evidence of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem for 16 major U.S. manufacturing industries. The theorem asserts that international trade reduces the prices of scarce productive factors and hence decreases their shares of income. The elasticities of prices of finished goods with respect to factor prices are estimated and then rearranged in the form of the row stochastic P-matrix in accordance with the proposition of Uekawa. The inverse of this matrix seems to confirm the weak version of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem.     

Automobile prices and protection: The U.S.-Japan trade restraint

We examine the effects of the U.S.-Japan trade restraint on automobile prices and quality upgrading, for both Japanese imports and American small cars. From April 1981 to April 1984 the suggested retail price of all Japanese models increased by 15.8 percent, or 5.3 percent per year. We find that nearly the entire amount of this rise can be explained by the upgrading of individual models. This upgrading may benefit consumers who would purchase a luxury import in any case, but harms those who desire the basic imports. In addition to upgrading, we conclude that a second cost of the trade restraint has been to prevent the yen depreciation from being passed onto American consumers, in terms of lower imported auto prices. For U.S. small cars we find a 9.1 percent rise in the suggested retail price, or 3 percent per year, with a fraction of this amount due to model upgrading. If the yen depreciation had led to lower import prices without the trade restraint, then we expect that U.S. auto prices would have been lower, too.     

Betting the farm on high food prices: A consumer based approach to agriculture protection

Our question is quite simple: If agriculture protectionism is a product of economic development, why is agriculture protected at such varying degrees by otherwise similarly developed countries? Previous attempts to fit agriculture into general models of trade policy formation have relied exclusively on producer demand for protection and merely assume the associated demand for lower prices that might come from consumers. Not surprisingly, these previous studies add only minimally to this strange phenomenon. Our method turns this approach on its head by modeling the political strategy of agriculture protection on the costs incurred by the consumer. Taking both producers and consumers into account more accurately reflects the intent of extant theoretical models of protectionism. Our results show that using the consumer as the dependent variable provides more robust results on common independent variables. Recent global events show that consumer disapproval of agriculture policies should not be underestimated by political scientists or politicians.     

United States trade and possible restrictions in high-technology products

This paper assesses the changing U.S. competitive position in high-technology products, and examines reasons for changes. It then inquires into the potential value of restrictive trade policies for promoting the U.S. interest in this sector, including mutual restrictions between the U.S., the EC, and Japan. The paper shows that the U.S. market share in most high-technology products, while still high, is declining. While industrial policy in other countries may have been a facilitating factor in this adverse development, the main explanation appears to lie in changing factor endowments, particularly the marked increase in the human capital/labor endowment ratios of Japan and Germany relative to that of the United States. When considering all the criteria relevant to trade policy, the differences between the high-technology industries bring into question the validity of lumping them into one sector for the purpose of strategic trade policy. Each industry needs to be treated separately. Their main common characteristic is intensity in human capital input. When they are viewed as one sector, a move to redress the declining U.S. lead calls for a domestic rather than a trade policy: massive U.S. investment in human capital and in research and development of the post-sputnik variety.     

中美新能源合作对两国关系的影响

新时期中美新能源合作拓宽了中美关系的边界,增加了中美之间的共同利益和“身份”认同,重塑了两国在气候变化问题上“负责任”的大国形象。但中美新能源合作依然面临“技术管制”、“碳关税”、“产业补贴政策”等阻力和障碍,这些因素甚至会影响到中美经贸和政治关系的发展,中美双方应该继续强化积极因素,消除不利因素,促进两国新能源合作。     

新时期的日美贸易谈判:成果与趋势探析

特朗普执政后,开始实行“美国优先”和贸易保护政策,反对多边主义,主张双边谈判。在美国对日存在大量贸易逆差、中美贸易摩擦持续、日本加快扩展对外经贸关系的形势下,美国与日本缔结双边贸易协定、加强经贸合作的必要性明显上升。2019年4月,美日启动双边贸易谈判,并在半年内签署了初步贸易协定,其范围基本未超日本所要求的货物贸易内容,仅增加了数字贸易领域,反映出日本与美国欲在新一轮国际贸易体系转型中引领规则与标准制定的战略意向。日美贸易协定对日本的预期经济效果低于CPTPP和日欧EPA,尤其是日本的农业将面对更加激烈的竞争。依照特朗普政府对日谈判方针,日美今后还将围绕汇率条款、原产地规则、投资及服务贸易等问题展开谈判,日本仍会面临来自美国的压力与挑战。     

中越钢铁贸易的现状与发展趋势分析

随着越南经济社会的发展,尤其是越南加入WTO,越南对钢铁的需求量不断增长。中国是个钢铁生产大国,在中越两国地理位置、价格低、运输成本低等方面具备有利条件,这就为中越两国钢铁贸易提供了发展的可行性。从基于越南、中国钢铁行业的基本情况出发,分析中越钢铁贸易的情况,并指出中越钢铁贸易发展的趋势。     

日美贸易失衡与中美贸易失衡的对比分析——以产业冲击为视角

中美贸易失衡是继日美贸易失衡后美国在经贸领域的又一关注焦点,美国将中美贸易失衡与“产业冲击”相挂钩。通过从汽车和半导体产业入手,对日美贸易失衡中的产业冲击问题进行分析发现:在中美贸易和日美贸易的发展过程中,由于产业发展阶段、对外直接投资对产业的影响、贸易对就业的冲击、产业竞争与互补程度以及出口管制程度等方面存在不同,日美贸易失衡对美国产业构成了实质性冲击,与中美贸易失衡在该问题上的影响存在本质差异。美国以贸易失衡和“产业冲击”责难中国,并借此发动贸易战,是美国意识形态方面的固有偏见和遏制中国发展的托词,中国需要在谋划中美磋商和反制的策略、推动中国产业结构升级及提防美国发动金融战等方面进行政策应对。     

Business Mobilization and Public Policy in the U.S. States*

Objective. The goal of this study is to examine how the political mobilization of business interests influences aggregate public policy outputs in the states. We examine the relationship between business mobilization and general state policy liberalism, as well as policy that we term state “business policy climate.” Methods. We construct a measure of the “business policy climate” from a number of tax and regulatory indicators in the states and examine whether business influences it and policy liberalism using ordinary least squares regression. Results. The analysis shows that business mobilization does not influence general policy liberalism but is a significant influence on a state's business policy climate. Specifically, the dominance of a state's campaign finance system by business interests makes policy more favorable toward business. Conclusions. The extent of business mobilization in a state is an important influence on public policy outputs but is constrained by the activities of other political actors such as unions.     

Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles

Assessing the cyclical alignment of national business cycles with the Euro-area one is of great importance in order to guide policy decisions concerning the enlargement of the Euro area. To this end, in this paper we aim to measure the effects of external macroeconomic shocks on business cycles of Central and Eastern European Countries, not yet Euro-area members. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015 and the structural near-VAR methodology, we focus on the effects of Euro-area monetary policy and global oil price shocks on prices and output of the analyzed countries. Results show that business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by domestic shocks in the short run, while monetary policy and oil price shocks play an increasing role in the medium run. Adding domestic fiscal shocks, the overall picture does not change significantly, since fiscal policy turns out to be a minor driver of business cycle fluctuations in CEECs. In the whole, our findings do not support an Euro-area enlargement at short horizons.     

Mexican Immigrant Self‐Employment Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border: An Analysis of 2000 Census Data*

Objective. This study explores the entrepreneurial tendencies of Mexican immigrants in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on the U.S. side of the Mexican border vis‐à‐vis the U.S. interior. Methods. Using 2000 Census data available in the 5% Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, we empirically analyze the self‐employment rates and earnings of Mexican immigrants residing in U.S. cities near Mexico versus those in nonborder MSAs. Results. Our findings indicate that Mexican immigrants in MSAs along the U.S.‐Mexico border have significantly higher self‐employment rates (but lower earnings) than their counterparts in the rest of the United States and non‐Hispanic whites in border cities. Explanations for these findings include the existence of trade opportunities in U.S. border cities as well as intense labor market competition that crowds a greater share of immigrants into self‐employment. Conclusion. Immigration reform that curtails the immigration flow from Mexico might hinder small business formation and economic development on the U.S. side of the Mexican border.     

Trade policy and the United States labour market

The United States Government proposed a sweeping review of existing trade deals when the current Administration took office in January 2017. This paper reviews the ongoing changes, and considers the potential impact of two strands of the trade policy debate on the United States labour market. First, we consider policy decisions that may impact the location decision of multinational enterprises, especially within the context of the renegotiation of NAFTA. Second, we review the policy debate related to the steel industry, and the potential channels through which an import tariff on steel imports may impact the labour market.     

Business political activity in New Zealand from 1990 to 2005

Abstract

This article describes the political activity of New Zealand's major business associations from 1990 to 2005. Two major themes are clearly evident in the political activity of business during this period. On one side, business vigorously opposed any perceived “rolling back” of the neoliberal policy reforms of 1984–93. On the other, business just as vigorously promoted further reforms that it considered to be in its interests, which it equated with those of the nation as a whole. Government performance in economic management and policy‐making was consistently assessed in terms of whether or not, and the extent to which, government was maintaining, advancing, or rolling back key elements of neoliberal policy reform. Two features of business political activity from 1990 to 2005 stand out: first, the extent of the neoliberal consensus over all major policy issues; and second, the marked continuity in advocating the retention and extension of the neoliberal policy regime for the entire period under review. On the basis of this investigation, the article concludes that the widespread scholarly neglect within political science in New Zealand of Marxist and neopluralist analyses of the role played by business in promoting neoliberal policy reform is unjustified.     

《日美半导体协议》冲击下的日本半导体产业发展研究——基于日本高科技企业经营业绩的分析

自20世纪70年代末,在"本政府的支持下,"本半导体产业实现跨越式发展,进而引发"美间的半导体摩擦。美国采取限制进口、阻碍"本引入先进技术等措施抑制"本半导体产业发展,"美两国还于1986年签订了《"美半导体协议》。通过分析"本高科技企业经营业绩的微观数据发现:《"美半导体协议》在短期内对"本半导体企业的营业收入、净利润及净资产收益率等企业竞争力指标产生了负面影响;"本半导体企业通过调整生产经营方式、合理布局产业链、调整经营结构、加强自主创新等方式,在中期内一定程度改善了企业的生产经营状况,但"本半导体产业的持续发展受到阻碍。在中美经贸摩擦严峻的背景下,中国的高科技企业或可从中获得启示。     

MFN tariff treatment of imports from China: Effects on U.S. employment

This article estimates the effects on U.S. output and employment of granting most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff treatment to imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC). Import demand elasticities are used to estimate changes in imports resulting from the lower tariff rates. A highly disaggregated U.S. input-output table and labor-output ratios are used to convert changes in imports into changes in domestic output and employment at a detailed sectorial level. U.S. import restraints on the textile and apparel industry are incorporated into the analysis. The article explores the implications of increased imports from the PRC for U.S., PRC, and LDC policy makers.     

美国核政策调整与国际核不扩散机制的前景

国际核不扩散机制是美国防止核扩散,限制对手核力量以实现自身利益的重要手段,是美国维系其主导的世界核秩序的重要干预变量;而核不扩散机制的内在运行逻辑,也使得美国核政策成为决定该机制发展方向的最主要变量。因此,奥巴马政府核政策的调整,势必对核不扩散机制的维持和发展产生深刻影响。中国是现行核不扩散机制的重要参与方,美国核政策的调整必将通过国际核不扩散机制这一干预变量给中国造成直接或间接影响。     

Racial Representation and U.S. Senate Apportionment*

Objectives. This research note explores whether the system of assigning each state equal representation in the U.S. Senate adversely affects racial minorities, groups that often have common political interests. We also project changes in minority representation over the next 20 years using Census data. Methods. We develop a new method of assessing racial bias due to apportionment, which calculates the number of seats lost by groups due to equal representation, a more substantively meaningful statistic than correlational measures. Results. We find that both African Americans and Hispanics are substantially underrepresented due to their greater presence in high‐population states as compared to in low‐population states. Whereas bias against African Americans appears to be falling, the demographic patterns of Hispanics will make them even more underrepresented in coming years. Conclusions. These findings are especially consequential considering that malapportionment has important public policy implications, including greater per‐capita distributive benefits for smaller states. Further, given that the Senate serves as a major veto point in U.S. politics, racial bias due to equal apportionment may have a significant impact on current and future political debates relevant to minority groups.     

Directions in border security research

This research note offers an appraisal of the contemporary state of U.S.-Mexico border security studies. An overview of recent literature on this subject is connected through two landmark political developments impacting the U.S.-Mexico frontier: the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the terrorist attacks on the United States of September 11, 2001. These two political events have had a major effect both on the ground and in the academy as scholars attempt to come to terms with the contradictions, complexities, and general problems of border security under neoliberal free trade and the threat of terrorism. The analysis concludes that while some important research in U.S.-Mexico border security exists, recent developments—coupled with pre-existing gaps in the literature—suggest that much crucial work remains to be done to understand and evaluate the complex dynamics of the new border security environment.     

Targeting Democracies: Regime Type and America's "Aggressively Unilateral" Trade Policy

Objectives . The American trade policy instrument Section 301 authorizes the president to demand changes in foreign states' trade policies and to fortify these demands with threats of sanctions. I examine the economic and political factors that influence the selection of states as targets for Section 301 proceedings. Methods . I develop an argument connecting a state's regime type to the likelihood that it will be targeted under Section 301. Controlling for other relevant factors, democratic states are predicted to have a higher probability of being targeted. I test the hypothesis in a set of regression models on cross–sectional time series data with both targeting incidence and targeting frequency as dependent variables. Results . States with more open and competitive political systems are more likely to be targeted under Section 301. Of the included variables, only a state's regime type and the size of its trade relationship with the United States have consistently significant effects across alternative model specifications. Conclusions . Section 301 plays on the rivalry between protectionist and export–oriented interests by demanding reductions in trade barriers and backing them up with threats directed against export industries. Industries currently favored by protectionist policies have a higher chance of losing such a political contest in a political system more open to interest–group competition. The institutional form of political competition within a state affects the state's response to international pressure on trade policy.     

Cross‐Border Earnings of U.S. Natives Along the U.S.‐Mexico Border*

Objective. This study explores whether the earnings of U.S.‐born cross‐border workers differ from those of their U.S.‐employed counterparts. We also analyze whether the cross‐border/non‐cross‐border wage differential changed during the 1990s—a decade when U.S.‐Mexico trade intensified and the maquiladora industry expanded. Methods. Employing decennial U.S. Census data from 1990 and 2000, this article estimates earnings functions and uses wage decomposition analysis to study changes in the earnings of U.S.‐born Hispanic and non‐Hispanic cross‐border workers. Results. The number of U.S.‐native cross‐border workers, while relatively small, increased significantly between 1990 and 2000, as did their earnings. A closer examination reveals that this cross‐border earnings premium only developed among non‐Hispanics. Conclusions. These findings indicate that some U.S. natives find lucrative employment opportunities on the Mexican side of the border, which might be diminished by additional restrictions for U.S.‐born residents to easily cross back and forth into Mexico.