农民工家庭迁移状态的演进及其影响因素研究——基于山东省951户的调查数据

根据山东省951户农民工家庭的调查数据,利用多元Logit模型和扩展的Oaxaca-Blinder分解方法,系统分析了农民工家庭向城镇迁移过程中迁移状态的演进及其影响因素。研究表明,初次离乡和定居城市两种演进形式的实现难度较小,而举家迁移和直接定居城市两种演进形式的实现难度较大;农民工家庭劳动力的城镇务工状况及其农村经济状况是影响农民工家庭迁移状态演进的决定性因素。     

Effects of future population trends on the labor market--analyses based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations

The effects of future population trends, such as demographic aging, declining fertility, and changes in migration, on the labor market in the Federal Republic of Germany are analyzed up to the year 2000. The study is based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations. Topics discussed include demographic trends as a cause of current unemployment, labor market phases and demographic trends since 1950, the projection model used, age-specific projections of the potential labor force, and labor market projections.     

Appraisal of the factors influencing changes in the total number and composition of births by mother's age

The causes of the temporary and unexpected increase in fertility in Poland that occurred at the beginning of the 1980s are reviewed. Among the possible causes considered are a change in the number of women of reproductive age, changes in the size of the female population in selected areas due to migration, and actual changes in age-specific fertility.     

Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: a demographic-economic approach

"The limitations of available migration data preclude a time-series approach of modeling interstate migration [in the United States]. The method presented here combines aspects of the demographic and economic approaches to forecasting migration in a manner compatible with existing data. Migration rates are modeled to change in response to changes in economic conditions. When applied to resently constructed data on migration based on income tax returns and then compared to standard demographic projections, the demographic-economic approach has a 20% lower total error in forecasting net migration by state for cohorts of labor-force age."     

The Effects of Variations in the Components of Change on the Size and Structure of The Australian Population: 1911-66

The main aim of the study was to estimate separately the effects of the variations in the components of population change and the effects of their mutual interactions on the size and age structure and other characteristics of the Australian population during 1911-66. The method proposed, called here the factorial projection method, is to project the population over the period under consideration, under different assumptions according to a 2×2×2 factorial design, utilizing the observed variations in fertility, mortality and migration. It was found that, apart from the effects of variations in the components occurring individually, the two factor interaction effects– the interaction effects of the changes occurring simultaneously in two of the components (viz. fertility and mortality or mortality and migration or fertility and migration)–on the population size, were considerable. The contribution of migration to the working age group was greater than its effect on the total size, and mortality improvement played a more prominent role in increasing the size of the old age population, while the reduction in fertility caused a higher proportion in the old age group and thus increased the mean age of the population both in the case of males and females. The two factor interaction effects were not negligible in changing the size of the school age population, population in the working age group and also in the old age group. But the interaction of migration and the decline in fertility was the only interaction effect which was important in changing the percentage age distribution and the mean age of the male and female population.     

Influencing Success: Configuring the WorldCat Knowledge Base With User Needs in Mind

The University Libraries (UL) of the University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNCG) recently migrated to OCLC's WorldShare Management Services (WMS) and the full version of WorldCat Local (WCL). This resulted in significant changes to our display of periodicals (both print and electronic) in the public catalog and the Journal A–Z List. Serials are problematic in any migration, and ease of use by patrons was our primary concern. This article briefly reviews the migration process to WMS and WCL and describes how UNCG configured and populated the WorldCat Local knowledge base for user access to electronic (and print) journals.     

我国各地区常住人口总量推算方法探讨

 本文以年度人口变动调查为基础,通过调查指标之间的关系、人口变动自身特征与抽查的情况,对我国各地区常住人口的推算方法进行了分析研究,并对各种评估推算方法的优缺点和适用条件进行了分析比较,根据各地区人口流动特点与人口基数,选择合适的评估推算方法,准确推算出各地常住人口数据。如何加强全国与各地数据衔接问题是今后推算评估数据工作的重点。     

Ghettos of the mind: the empirical behaviour of indices of segregation and diversity

Summary.  The effect of immigration on social cohesion is a political issue, expressed as a fear that racially skewed residential patterns represent ghettos which prevent integration. Residential patterns have been measured by indices of segregation. The range of indices is reviewed in the paper and measured empirically for England and Wales by using census data for 1991 and 2001, including a new index of migration dispersal. There has been an increase in residential mixing as a result of growing minority populations and their more even spread across localities. These two trends are identified by two commonly used indices of segregation which are moving in opposite directions for the most recent immigrant groups. The sensitivity of each index to modifiable area boundaries makes them unsuitable for evaluation of cities' relative performance. The residential patterns of cities after immigration are more clearly understood by using demographic measures of migration and age structure.     

The spatial and socio-occupational mobility of the population

The author describes topics included in a study of spatial, social, and occupational mobility in Poland. These include rural migration, the effect of the family life cycle on migration, the social impact of migration, the effect of migration on spatial distribution, and migration prospects until the end of this century.     

Geographic distance,the measurement of socioeconomic development,and the extent of migration

A study of migration in the region of Wojewodztwo Wloclawskie, Poland, is presented for the period 1975-1979 using a gravitational model. The model includes migration variables and variables measuring the level of socioeconomic development.     

劳动力流动对中国地区经济差距影响的空间计量经济模型分析

学术界对劳动力流动对地区经济发展产生的影响有两种不同观点：一种观点认为劳动力流动能够缩小地区差距;另一种观点则认为劳动力流动会扩大地区发展差距。考虑各地区经济发展的空间依赖性,通过构建空间计量经济模型,并利用中国各省区经济的面板数据进行研究与实证分析。结果表明：劳动力流动对中国不同地区经济发展的作用方向和强度表现不同,对地区差距的影响是劳动力流入与劳动力流出综合作用产生的结果。     

基于第四次全国人口普查资料的迁移年龄模式研究

 中国即将完成生育率的转变，人口迁移将成为人口变动的重要部分。生育率低于更替水平的工业发达国家已经将人口迁移作为解决其人口负增长及人口老龄化问题的重要手段。迁移人口具有较强的年龄选择性，迁移的性别上也存在差，迁移人口的年龄结构与非移民的年龄结构有很大的差异。1990年第四次人口普查（以下简称“四普”）第一次全面普查了中国1985年7月1日到1990年6月30日5年间积累的迁移人口，但是基于该次普查的按龄迁移模式一直没有见到报告，而迁移的年龄模式是研究迁移对人口变动影响的基础。四普中关于迁移询问的是五年前的居住地，其优点是简单易行，可得到五年以来迁移强度与流向的信息从而消除了短期波动性；但是，由于统计时间上的限定，迁移发生的准确时间无法确定，从而导致迁移发生时的年龄的不确定性，这些缺点使得难以求出分年龄组的迁移人口和按龄迁移率，并且有可能受回迁及多次迁移的影响而低估迁移的强度，对于回迁及多次迁移的问题无法从四普中得处结论，本文不予考虑。本文将给出基于四普的按龄迁移模式必须引入的假设，并给出引入假设后能够得到的结果，并对省际迁移和省内迁移年龄模式作实证分析。     

农村劳动力流动对中国粮食生产影响研究——基于省域动态面板数据的实证分析

随着工业化、城市化进程加快,农村劳动力流动规模快速增长,农民外出务工与转移步伐呈现加快现象。在市场化改革快速推进的趋势下,农村劳动力流动对农户粮食生产决策环境产生了重要影响,对粮食生产波动的影响日益凸现。为此,从农户供给反应行为入手,构建农村劳动力流动对粮食总产量、粮食平均产量的供给反应模型,采用省域动态面板数据,利用GMM方法实证分析农村劳动力流动对粮食生产影响的途径与程度。研究发现,农村劳动力流动对粮食总产量产生了重要影响,非农就业对粮食生产具有显著负向影响,而人口迁移对粮食生产具有一定促进作用。     

Migration of the rural population under conditions of agro-industrial integration

Factors affecting rural-urban migration in the USSR are examined. The author suggests that a lower rate of such migration is associated with the creation of agro-industrial centers.     

Migration pattern in Bangladesh: a covariate-dependent Markov model

Internal migration is one of the major components of rapid and unplanned growth of towns and cities especially in the developing countries. This paper describes the transition pattern of internal out migration in Bangladesh and some sociodemographic factors influencing such migration in the country using a covariate-dependent Markov model. Four types of migration behavior namely, rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to rural and urban to urban are under consideration of this paper. Defining two discrete states, urban and rural, each of such transition can be characterized by a stochastic process; hence we use a two-state Markov chain for this purpose. We find that age, sex, division and reason of migration are significantly associated with internal migration in Bangladesh. The major findings include that any type of migration, rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to rural and urban to urban, mostly take place at the ages of 15–30 as well as at the ages of 0–15; females have higher odds than males to make a migration; Dhaka, Rajshahi and Chittagong divisions have remarkably higher migration rate as compared to Barisal and Sylhet division; and the professional reason is the main reason for rural to urban migration.     

跨方言区流动、自选择与劳动力收入

本文基于2012和2014年中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据,采用内生转换回归模型考察劳动力跨方言区流动对收入的影响。实证结果表明,与在同一方言区流动的个体相比,跨方言区流动收入要高31.9%;对于跨方言区流动的劳动力而言,跨方言区流动对收入的平均处理效应为30.5%,如果在同一方言区流动的劳动力选择跨方言区流动,其收入反而会减少3.9%,说明不同个体在流入地的选择上是基于其比较优势做出的决策。进一步,本文还发现跨方言区流动的劳动力无论选择在同一方言区流动还是跨方言区流动,均能获得较高的收入,在流动决策上具有绝对优势。在考虑了测量误差和极端值以及排除其他干扰因素后,上述结论依然稳健。     

The measurement of the intensity of internal migration

The method developed by Daniel Courgeau for calculating rates of internal migration is described and applied to data for Poland. Individual probabilities of internal migration are calculated for various years, population groups, and administrative areas in order to show that these probabilities are not constant.     

经济增长的结构分解与劳动力省际配置效率的测算——基于改进的经济增长率分解法

针对部分学者在运用经济增长率分解法时存在的误区,对现有经济增长率分解法进行改进,推导出多因素指数分解的一般公式,并利用这一原理测算出1978—2013年期间中国劳动力资源的省际配置效率,结果表明:改革开放30多年来,中国经济的高速增长主要依靠劳动生产率的提高与劳动力投入总量的增长,在只考虑有户籍变动的劳动力跨省迁移的前提下,劳动力省际配置结构变动对经济增长的贡献相对有限,总体配置效率较低;只有当市场机制在劳动力资源配置过程中逐渐发挥主导作用或当劳动力资源转向相对短缺时,劳动力省际配置效率才有显著提高。     

An attempt at the econometric specification of the socioeconomic determinants of migratory movements and migration balance

An analysis of internal migration in Poland is presented. Models of out-migration, in-migration, and migration balance are constructed for each of the 49 voivodships for 1979. Factors affecting migration are analyzed, including per capita investment, employment, output, fixed capital, per capita retail sales, housing, social services, manufacturing payroll, school enrollment, per capita hospital beds, movie theater seats, and book publications.