Trends in fertility level in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics during the years of Soviet rule

The birth rates of the USSR within its present boundaries are reconstructed for the period 1918-1940 on the basis of incomplete data and taking into consideration several changes in frontiers. Estimates for the years 1941-1945 are derived from data on school attendance during the 1949-1954 period, as well as from data provided by the censuses of 1959 and 1970 concerning cohort survival. Deriving an "effective fertility rate," which adjusts for the mortality wastage of young children, discussion focus is on fertility trends until 1976 and the changes in age patterns of reproduction at the national level and in the various republics. During the 1918-1940 period, the birth rate in the USSR never fell below 30/1000 and never exceeded 45/1000. There was a significant drop in the birth rate in the 1931-1936 period, and this is attributable to the problems of the period of collectivization and to the large-scale processes of migration involved in the country's industrialization. After the late 1940s, the overall birth rate in the USSR stabilized at a level of 25-27/1000, but from 1960 onwards, there was a steady decline in the rate. The level reached its lowest in 1969 and then rose somewhat. This increase reflects the transient influence of changes in the age-marriage structure of the population and in the "timetable" of births. A comparison of the present fertility level with the level in the 1920s indicates that the birth rate has declined by a factor of approximately 2.5, but in evaluating this decline the sharp decline in mortality, particularly infant mortality, must also be considered. The child mortality level in prerevolutionary Russia was very high. The overall mortality rate for the 20 provinces of European Russia in 1920-1922 was 33.2/1000, namely, 1/4 higher than it was before the Revolution. In subsequent years infant mortality continued at a high level and was 18.2% in 1940. In the last 25 years mortality in children under age 5 has markedly declined. In 1976 the overall birth rate was 18.5/1000 and the "effective" birth rate was 18.0/1000. The practice of birth control in families is spreading in various ways. In some cases the proportion of married couples using family planning is increasing, while in other cases couples already using birth control are beginning to use it after the birth of a child lower in birth order. In most areas of the country birth control is being practiced predominantly in such a way as to keep families down to 1 or 2 children. For the whole of the USSR in 1973-1974, the gross reproduction rate was 1.178, while the net rate was 1.118. Although there is ample population replacement in the country as a whole, in a number of republics even mere replacement is threatened.     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Russia Faces Depopulation? Dynamics of Population Decline

Between 1992 and 1993 Russia's population declined, as it has in every succeeding year. This has been viewed as a population disaster, related to high adult male mortality and deterioration of the health care system. Some see a substantially depopulated Russia in the future. However, the prospect of long-term population decline is completely due to recent declines in fertility. High adult male mortality, although a cause of great concern, does not contribute to the chance of long-term population decline. Projections of the future population of Russia depend upon the exact fertility assumptions used. Based on the example of fertility in the United States in the Great Depression and the Baby Boom following World War II, the future depopulation of Russia is far from certain.     

The trends of contraceptives of people in Shanghai since early 1980s

Shanghai has had the lowest fertility rate in China for many years. Shanghai had a negative rate of natural growth during 1990-95. During 1980-93, fertility dropped continuously. In 1982, contraceptive use among married women included 29.47% using IUDs, 29.33% using oral pills, 23.44% using female sterilization, and 10.48% using condoms. Contraceptive prevalence declined slightly from 98.6% in 1982 to 92.29% in 1993. By 1993, method use changed. Oral pill and female sterilization use declined to 8.04% and 7.22%, respectively, among married women of reproductive age. IUD use increased dramatically to 72.2% in 1993. Condom use declined to 8.83% of total users. Despite reduced contraceptive prevalence, the birth rate declined from 18.51/1000 population in 1982 to 6.50/1000 population in 1993. The proportion of women accepting the one-child certificate increased from 53.32% of all married women of reproductive age in 1984 to 70.13% in 1993. The shift use of contraceptive methods means reliance on long-term reversible methods.     

Change of marital fertility in China from 1964 to 1981]

In 1982 the Chinese National Family Planning Commission conducted a nationwide (excepting Taiwan and Tibet) .001 random sampling of the total population to gather data on the fertility and age structures of married women. In comparing general marital fertility and standardized fertility, findings show that from 1964 to 1970 both rates averaged 225.1/1000. When family planning work began on a wide scale in 1971, the rates steadily declined, reaching 116.7/1000 in 1980. However, in 1967-68 the standard fertility rate rose by 21.34% due to the chaos of the Cultural Revolution, and in 1980-81 the rate increased by 13.2%, indicating that problems still remain in family planning. The total marital fertility rate dropped 2.84/1000 from 1964 to 1981. The rate of decline in rural areas was greater than in the cities, but the cities had a larger percentage decline than the countryside. In the 5-year periods of 1965, 1970, 1975, and 1980, marital fertility rates tended to decline in 1970 and 1975 among women aged 30-40 years because during those periods greater control was placed on women having multiple children. For 1980 and 1975, combined total rates for 15-19 year olds dropped 17.1%, but the combined total rates of 30-49 year olds dropped by 61.2%, indicating that in recent years the drop in marital fertility is mostly among those over 30 years of age.     

The demographic transition in the Korean peninsula, 1910-1990: South and North Korea compared

North and South Korea have both experienced demographic transition and fertility and mortality declines. The fertility declines came later in North Korea. In 1990, the population was 43.4 million in South Korea and 21.4 million in North Korea and the age and sex compositions were similar. This evolution of population structure occurred despite differences in political systems and fertility determinants. Differences were in the fertility rate and the rate of natural increase. The total fertility rate was 2.5 children in North Korea and 1.6 in South Korea. The rate of natural increase was 18.5 per 1000 in North Korea and 9.8 in South Korea. Until 1910, the Korean peninsula was in the traditional stage characterized by high fertility and mortality. The early transitional stage came during 1910-45 under the Japanese annexation. Health and medical facilities improved and the crude birth rate rose and then declined. With the exception of the war years, population expanded as a function of births, deaths, and international migration. Poor economic conditions in rural areas acted as a push factor for south-directed migration, migration to Japan, and urban migration. Next came the chaotic stage, during 1945-60. South Korean population expanded during this period of political unrest. Repatriation and refugee migration constituted a large proportion of the population increase. Although the war brought high mortality, new medicine and disease treatment reduced the mortality rate after the war. By 1955-60, the crude death rate was 16.1 per 1000 in South Korea. The crude birth rate remained high at 42 per 1000 between 1950-55. The postwar period was characterized by the baby boom and higher fertility than the pre-war period of 1925-45. Total fertility was 6.3 by 1955-60. The late transitional stage occurred during 1960-85 with reduced fertility and continued mortality decline. By 1980-85, total fertility was 2.3 in the closed population. The restabilization stage occurred during 1985-90, and fertility declined to 1.6. In North Korea, strong population control policies precipitated fertility decline. In South Korea, the determinants were contraception, rising marriage age, and increased use of abortion concomitant with improved socioeconomic conditions.     

Nuptiality, fertility, use of contraception, and family policies in Uzbekistan

With more than 22 million inhabitants, Uzbekistan is the most populous of the Central Asian republics of the former USSR. Using data from a retrospective survey conducted in 1992 among women of reproductive age, the paper examines fertility trends and determinants during the twentieth century. The analysis shows that the absence of a government-supported birth control programme and the strong pro-natalist policies of the Soviet authorities during most of the century did not affect either the onset, nor the progress of the fertility transition. The results indicate, however, that the social development programmes undertaken by the Soviet government did play a very active part in the transition as shown by the impact of education on reproductive behaviour, as well as on the very specific contraceptive mix adopted by the population after the mid-1970s.     

The data of 1995 1 percent sample population survey in Shanghai

A 1% sample survey was conducted in Shanghai during October 1995. Findings indicate that de jure population was 14.135 million people vs. 13.34 million people in 1990 (an increase of 0.795 million). Part of the increase in population (0.455 million people) during 1990-95 is due to changes in definition of the de jure population. In 1995, de jure means residents of the city for 6 months or more compared with the 1990 requirement of at least 12 months' residency. Natural population growth and net migrants accounted for 0.34 million of the increase in population during 1990-95. The birth rate was 5.75/1000 population in 1995 in Shanghai, or 81,200 births. The death rate was 7.05/1000 population, or 99,600 deaths. The natural rate of growth was a negative 0.13% or a decline of 18,400 population. Households numbered 4.394 million. Average household size was 3.13 members. 12.454 million people out of the total of 14.135 million people held household registration in Shanghai. Han ethnic groups comprised 99.48% of Shanghai's population, or 14.061 million people. The Han population declined by 0.06% during 1990-95. Other minority populations comprised 74,000 people. 11.838 million were township population. The proportion of township population increased from 66.73% in 1990 to 83.75% in 1995. The number of people who received a higher education reached 9045 people, which was an increase of 1508 people during 1990-95. Population with at least 12 years of education numbered 21,007 people, an increase of 1489 people during 1990-95. 34,395 had 9 years of education, and 21,905 had 6 years of education. The illiterate or semiliterate population over 15 years of age numbered 989,000 people, which was 7.0% of the total city population or a decline of 4 percentage points during 1990-95.     

Aging in Japan: population policy implications

This article was prepared for the International Conference on Aging in the East and West in 1995. The focus is on trends in aging in Japan and demographic determinants and consequences. Findings are presented from a 1990 study conducted by the Institute of Population Problems on acceptance of alternative population policies aimed to slow population aging in Japan. Japan is the seventh most populous country in the world, and the current growth rate is around 0.3%. Declines in fertility and mortality have contributed to the low growth rate. Population aging accelerated over the decades. The present share of aged population is 14.1%. The aged population is expected to continue to increase from 14.9 million in 1990 to 32.7 million in 2020 (25.8% in 2025). Decreases in the aged population are not expected until after the mid-2040s. The proportion of very old (ages 75 years and older) will dramatically increase to 14.5% in 2025. The primary demographic determinant of population aging and fertility decline is identified as the higher proportion of never-married and the higher age at marriage. One of the consequences of population aging is the increase in the age dependency ratios and the aged-child ratios. The proportion of intergenerationally extended households declined over time, but the pace of decline has slowed recently. The proportion of aged in one person or couple only households has risen but not to the same extent as the West. The majority of older old still live with a married child. Logistic analysis of 1985 survey data reveal that the custom of the elderly living with the eldest child remains. The 1985 survey also revealed much indecision about a pronatalist policy or a fertility policy. Logistic analysis of 1990 public opinion survey data shows acceptance of immigration as a policy alternative to slowing population aging. Acceptance varied by socioeconomic, demographic, and regional factors. A pronatalist policy received stronger acceptance. However, reference is made to Kojima's literature review, which suggests that indirect policies on fertility and a comprehensive family policy would be more effective in raising fertility than a population policy.     

中国的生育率:到底下降了多少?

1990年代以来 ,中国的生育水平持续下降 ,已经进入低生育国家的行列。 2 0 0 0年人口普查 ,中国的总和生育率为 1 2 2 ,明显存在漏报。那么中国的生育率到底下降了多少 ?本文利用亲生子女法、生育史重构法和胎次递进比方法分析了 1 990年代生育率的下降过程 ,认为 2 0 0 0年总和生育率最准确的估计应为 1 5 8。通过分解总和生育率的变化 ,认为 1 990年代生育水平的下降 ,2 /5归因于结婚年龄的推迟 ,3/5归因于婚内生育率的下降     

The lasting low fertility and ageing in Shanghai

This brief article discusses fertility decline and increased proportions of elderly in Shanghai, China. By 1996, Shanghai had 14.19 million permanent population and 13.05 million resident population. The natural population growth rate was 1.4/1000. The birth rate was 5.6/1000 and the death rate was 7/1000. 5.6084 million were engaged in urban employment by the end of 1996, which was 0.5% fewer employed people than in the preceding year. 3.8 million worked in state-owned or collectively owned enterprises. Unemployment was 2.8%. The gross domestic product per capita was 22,086 yuan (US$2661). The average annual wage was 10,572 yuan/year among urban workers. Rural and suburban households earned an average of 4846 yuan/year. The proportion of women of childbearing age continues to decline, while the proportion of elderly increases. 17.1% of total population were children aged 0-14 years in 1995 compared to 18.2% in 1990. The proportion of elderly increased from 9.4% in 1990 to 11.4% in 1995. The median age of population was 37.3 years. Life expectancy was 74.07 years for men and 78.21 years for women.     

A note on suicide in Russia, 1965–1993

Recently, theCentre for Demography and Human Ecology in Moscow in collaboration with theInstitut National d’études Démographiques in Paris undertook a reconstruction of registered deaths in individual republics of the former Soviet Union. The first set of such data, tabulated by sex, age and cause of death, covers the deaths registered in Russia between 1965 and 1993. The present article extracts from the data set information on registered suicide mortality and reviews its trends and age and sex patterns. The link between alcoholism and suicide is strongly suggested.     

The President of Russia on Population

Russian president Vladimir Putin's 2005 annual address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, delivered on 25 April, was widely noted in the world press for the startling statement that “the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century.” The address also contained a brief passage discussing the demographic problems of Russia. This passage, touching upon the issues of high mortality and the low birth rate, and commenting on drug abuse and alcoholism and on immigration policy, is reproduced below. The president expressed confidence that by creating conditions to “encourage people to have children, lower the mortality rate and bring order to immigration,” the size of the Russian population will gradually stabilize. (The United Nations medium population projection for Russia, which assumes gradual improvement of fertility and mortality, reaching a TFR of 1.85 and an expectation of life of 72 years by the 2040s, as well as net immigration exceeding 2 million persons, foresees a decline from the current 143 million to 112 million by 2050.) The full English text of the address can be accessed at http://president.kremlin.ru/eng/ .     

Thailand population statistics

A few statistics on population for Thailand are reported for April 1, 1993. Total population is determined to be 58,113,000 of which 29,039,000 are males and 29,074,000 are females. The urban population was 17,852,000 and the rural population was 40,261,000. Regional distribution showed population in the north to be 9,443,000, in the northeast to be 19,590,000, in the south to be 7,107,000, and in the center excluding Bangkok to be 14,517,000. The population of Bangkok Metropolitan area was 7.5 million. Age distribution was 16.7 million under the age of 15 years, 19.4 million 6-21 years, 37.1 million 15-59 years, 4.2 million 60 years and older, and 35.3 million 20 years and older. There were 15,002,000 women in the reproductive ages of 15-44 years. The crude birth rate was 17.4/1000 population. The crude death rate was 5.9/1000 population. Infant mortality was 35.5/1000 live births. The natural growth rate was 1.15%. Life expectancy at birth was 66.4 years for males and 71.8 years for females. Life expectancy at 60 years was 17.9 years for males and 21.2 years for females. The total fertility rate was 2.2/woman. Contraceptive prevalence was 75.0%. Estimated population in the year 2012 is expected to be 71,310,000. A graph provides the projected number of living children per 1000 aged 12 years or younger who would be born to mothers with HIV infection and the number who would be orphans between 1990 and 2000. 350,000 children 12 years and under are expected to be born to HIV-infected mothers in the year 2000.     

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.     

Thailand population statistics] as of April 1, 1994

This one page profile gives population statistics for April 1994 in Thailand. Total population is estimated to be 58,656,000 persons, of whom 29,310,000 were male and 29,346,000 were female. The population was 18,019,000 in urban areas and 40,637,000 in rural areas. Regional population was distributed as follows: 7,532,000 in the Northern Region, 19,773,000 in the Northeastern Region, 7,174,000 in the Southern Region, 14,652,000 in the Central Region excluding Bangkok Metropolis, and 7,525,000 in Bangkok Metropolis. 35,669,000 women were of reproductive age (15-44 years). As regards the general population, 19,614,000 were aged 6-21 years, 35,669,000 were aged 20 years or older, 16,893,000 were aged under 15 years, 37,481,000 were aged 15-59 years, and 4,282,000 were aged 60 years or older. The crude birth rate was 18.5/1000 total population. The crude death rate was 6.4/1000 total population. The natural growth rate was 1.2%. The infant mortality rate was 34.5/1000 live births. Life expectancy at birth was 67.7 years for males and 72.4 years for females. Life expectancy at 60 years was 18.8 years for males and 22.0 years for females. The total fertility rate was 1.95 children/woman. Contraceptive prevalence was 75.0%. Population is expected to increase to 71,414,000 persons in the year 2012. A separate graph indicates the estimated numbers of child prostitutes based on five different assumptions about total numbers of commercial sex workers in 1993.     

The achievements in family planning work in Rudong County as suggested by the data of the Fertility Survey]

A 15% random sampling from Rudong County was recently taken to survey fertility rates. 1153 primary units were chosen, which included 160,832 people. Among this group were 57,050 women aged 15-67 years. Topics surveyed included: marriage, birth, contraception, and population structure. Rudong County, among the earliest counties in China to begin the work of birth control, started in the 1960s with birth control education. The natural rate of population increase by the early 1970s had already fallen. From 1974 to 1982 the average rate of natural population growth was 3.8/1000. Reproduction has gone from a rising trend to a stabilized trend. The base of the population structure pyramid has shrunk; the number of youths aged from birth to 14 years has fallen from 35.05% in 1964 to 21.77% in 1982. The number of people who must be supported (the old and the young) has decreased, lessening society's responsibility for them. 29.45% of the total population are over 65 years or under 14. Society's coefficient factor of support has fallen from 66.31% in 1964 to 41.75%. There is a decrease in the number of people marrying at a young age; the trend is toward marriage at a later age. The average age at marriage had risen from 23.81 years in 1980 to 23.89 years in 1981. The fertility rate has decreased, as has the number of offspring per woman. 1 child family is on the rise and multiple children family is on the decline. In 1981 the 1 child rate reached 92.98%, the 2 children rate was 6.63% and the multiple children rate was 0.49%. Prior to 1979 the 1 child rate was under 10%. The fertility rate fell from 136/1000 in the 1960s to 41.5/1000 in 1981.     

The population control helping sustainable economic development in Shantong province

A brief overview is presented of the impact of population control on sustainable economic development in Shantong Province, China. Family planning education was initiated in 1970. Birth control is now widely accepted among the population. The birth rate in 1995 was 9.82/1000 population. The natural growth rate was 0.335%. The population growth rate was below the national average. The total fertility rate was 1.1 children/woman. Shandong Province has a total population of 81 million people. Shandong's share of Chinese total population declined from 8.4% in 1949 to 7.2% in 1995. Gross domestic product in 1995 was 500 billion yuan. The annual urban expenditure was 4000 yuan/person, which was an increase of 1500 yuan from 1991. The annual rural net income was 1650 yuan/person, which was an increase of 680 yuan from 1991. During 1971-95, expenditures for bearing children declined by 492 billion yuan. The party secretary of the province stressed that population quality is desired now that the birth rate is under control.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

An analysis of the fertility transition in developing countries]

Most developing countries are in the demographic stage of early mortality, high birth rates and high rates of natural population increase. A characteristic of developing countries is that after World War ii, particularly since the 1960s fertility rates are on the decline, even though they still remain high. The fertility rate of developed countries fell from a 1950 rate of 22.9/1000 to 15/1000 in 1982, a decrease of 34.5%, whereas the fertility rate of developing countries hovered around 43/1000 between 1930-1950, 40.6/1000 during the 1960s and 33/1000 in 1982. Between 1950 and 1982 there was a decrease of 24.8%. But the main reason for this decrease is the decline in the last 20 years of the fertility rates of China and India, whose rates fell 34.9% from 1960-1980. Changes in fertility rates are influenced by the age structure of a country, as seen in the changing age structure of developing countries from 1960-80. For example, an increase in fertility rates was 1 consequence of an increase in the number of fertile women aged 15-45 from 42.6% in 1960 to 44.4% in 1980. Nevertheless, there exists some sort of birth control, whether conscious or subconscious, because the number of births per fertile woman is 3-4 fewer than the 14-15 children a woman can theoretically bear. The reason for changes in fertility rates in developing countries can be traced to marriage and family customs, and even more important, to social and economic factors. For example, Asian, African and Latin American cultures tend to support early marriages. When the fertility rates of developed and developing countries are looked at for a comparable period, then the rate of decrease for developing countries is slower than developed countries. But, if the comparison is made for a transitional period (i.e., industrialization), then the rate of decrease for developing countries is faster than for developed countries. Currently there are 25 developing countries that have attained a fertility rate of 25/1000 or lower, and 52 developing countries with a rate of 35/1000.