External Shocks,Household Consumption and Fertility in Indonesia

This paper examines the impact of idiosyncratic income shocks on household consumption, educational expenditure and fertility in Indonesia, and assesses whether the investment in human capital of children and fertility are used to smooth household consumption. Using four different kinds of self-reported economic hardships, our findings indicate that coping mechanisms are rather efficient for Indonesian households that perceive an economic hardship. Only in case of unemployment do we find a significant decrease in consumption spending and educational expenditure while fertility increases. These results indicate that households that perceive an unemployment shock use children as a means for smoothing consumption. Regarding the death of a household member or natural disaster we find that consumption per person even increases. These results are consistent with the argument that coping mechanisms even over-compensate the actual consumption loss due to an economic hardship. One important lesson from our findings is that different types of income shock may lead to different economic and demographic behavioral adjustments and therefore require specific targeted social insurance programs.     

Links between labor supply and unemployment: theory and empirics

A flow model of labor market participation is used to describe how various exogenous variations jointly affect unemployment and participation and provides short-run identification restrictions of a structural VAR. In some countries, fast rising female participation may have had a moderate short- and medium-run impact on unemployment rates. A variance decomposition exercise indicates that, in Continental Europe, participation is driven in the short run by unemployment shocks, whereas in the USA, it is driven by participation shocks (demography, immigration). Unemployment in Europe is driven by participation shocks, whereas in the USA, it is driven by unemployment shocks.      

Household size and composition in the developing world in the 1990s

This study uses data from recent household surveys in 43 developing countries to describe the main dimensions of household size and composition in the developing world. Average household size varies only modestly among regions, ranging from 5.6 in the Near East/North Africa to 4.8 in Latin America. These averages are similar to levels observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Europe and North America. About four out of five members of the household are part of the nuclear family of the head of the household. Household size is found to be positively associated with the level of fertility and the mean age at marriage, and inversely associated with the level of marital disruption. An analysis of trends and differentials in household size suggests that convergence to smaller and predominantly nuclear households is proceeding slowly in contemporary developing countries.     

Wage shocks,household labor supply,and income instability

Do married couples make joint labor supply decisions in response to each other’s wage shocks? The study on this question aids in understanding the link between the rising income instability and household insurance. Existing studies on household insurance either focus on consumption smoothing and take labor supply as a given, or only focus on wife’s labor responses to husband’s unemployment shocks. This article develops an intra-household insurance model that allows for insurance against permanent and transitory wage shocks from both partners. Estimation using the Survey of Income and Program Participation shows that wife increases labor supply in response to husband’s adverse wage shocks when both of them are working, and wife gets more nonlabor income when she is out of work. This intra-household insurance reduces earnings instability by about 2 to 9 %. These results suggest that joint labor supply decisions provide an extra smoothing effect on income instability.     

Are there Geographical Variations in the Psychological Cost of Unemployment in South Africa?

Are certain groups of unemployed individuals hurt less by unemployment than others? This paper is an attempt to test the hypothesis that non-pecuniary costs of unemployment may vary between societies with different unemployment rates. Using cross-sectional data from the SALDRU93 survey, I show that households’ perceptions of life satisfaction are inversely related to household unemployment for South Africa as to be expected in richer countries. Reported well-being levels are shown to be associated negatively with others’ unemployment at the geographical cluster level for the employed. However, unemployment appears to hurt less for the household if unemployment rates in the local labour market are high.     

Latin American Households in Comparative Perspective

Comparative family sociology has had little to say about the Latin American family or household despite it links to a European colonial culture mixed with a distinct set of indigenous and historical circumstances. In this paper tentative judgements are put forward about the similarities and differences between the Western and Latin American household by examining four of its dimensions: the household's relative complexity, the separate residence of conjugal units, the incidence of households headed by women, and the incidence of household members being unrelated to the head. Data come from the World Fertility Survey household files gathered during the middle 1970s in six countries: Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Peru. We find that household complexity in the six countries is intermediate between that of the West and East. Many of the households are extended laterally instead of vertically, because conjugal couples tend to reside in separate households, but often live with unmarried relatives as well. In addition, a high level of marital instability results in a significant proportion of households headed by women, many of them containing members of the extended family. Finally, whereas the circulation of young unmarried people of both sexes was common in rural areas in the West, being an unrelated individual in another's household is most common in urban areas among females between 15 and 19 years old.     

Job loss and family adjustments in work and schooling during the Mexican peso crisis

We use individual data from a panel of families during the depth of the peso crisis in Mexico to investigate whether the transition of the male household head from employment into unemployment affects the labor force participation of his spouse and children. We find that significant added-worker effects are in operation especially for adult females (wives), but no evidence that the labor force participation, the school attendance, and the likelihood of advancing to the next school grade of teenage males are influenced by the event of unemployment of the household head. The head's unemployment is significantly associated with a higher probability that teenage females do not attend school. However, lower attendance does not appear to impede their advancement to the next grade.

Comparing migrants to non-migrants: The case of Dutch migration to New Zealand

We analyse post-war Dutch migration to New Zealand. We document that history, reflect on analytical and econometric modelling and then combine a sample of Dutch migrants in New Zealand with a representative sample of Dutch in The Netherlands to estimate wage equations and the determinants of the migration decision. We use the results for ex post evaluation of the migration decision.Joop Hartog is Fellow of IZA (Bonn), CESifo (München), AIAS and Tinbergen Institute (Amsterdam). Work on this project was begun when Hartog was Erskine Visitor at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch New Zealand. Rainer Winkelmann is Fellow of CEPR and IZA (Bonn). This paper is produced as part of a CEPR research programme on European Migration from Economic Analysis to Policy Response, supported by a grant from the Commission of the European Communities under its Human Capital and Mobility Programme (no. ERBCHRXCT940515).It was presented at the European Society for Population Economics meetings in Bonn, June 2000. We gratefully acknowledge comments by Justin Lee Tobias, Jacques Poot, Ed Vytlacil, an anonymous referee and Paul Schultz. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

Recent patterns in downward income mobility: Sinking boats in a rising tide

This paper employs four measures of downward income mobility and 1984–1986 PSID data to examine the extent and possible causes of downward mobility. Despite modest economic growth during this period, a substantial number of Americans experienced downward income mobility, roughly 5% to 20%. The majority of the downwardly mobile initially lived with a nonelderly, Caucasian, male, less-educated, working household head. Logit analysis indicates that the following factors significantly increase the odds of downward income mobility: Male headship; minority headship; family dissolution; nest-leaving; and having a head who works in mining, construction, manufacturing, transportation, trade, or farming. The following factors significantly lower the odds of downward income mobility: Retaining the same household head; having a college-educated head; having a head who works in a professional, technical, or operative occupation; and having a head in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry.     

The role of non-timber forest products in household coping strategies in South Africa: the influence of household wealth and gender

The prevalence and ranking of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) as safety-nets has been well discussed, but rarely quantified. We report on group discussions and household interviews in two South African villages to assess the frequency and nature of shocks and stresses over a 2-year period and the coping strategies employed, stratified by household wealth and gender of the de jure household head. Overall, kinship was the most widely adopted coping strategy, and NTFPs were the fifth most prevalent (employed by 70% of households). There were relatively few differences in the nature of shocks or responses between male- and female-headed households. Wealth influenced the experience of shocks or stresses as well as responses. Poorer households have fewer options with the increased use or sale of NTFPs being the second most commonly adopted strategy. Increased use and sale of NTFPs is a common manifestation of the safety-net function. To reconcile long-term economic development and biodiversity conservation, it is important to understand people??s use of natural resources and the factors that affect this use, including their responses to shocks and stresses.     

Family Migration Pattern in China

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and ＂getting old before getting rich＂ in developing countries indicate that fluctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change？ What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change＇？ Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model. The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change. However, sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population. The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not retirement age and Long-term stability in a sustainable system,Gradually raising the replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or cotlntries,but the latter is more urgent.     

Measuring Women’s Empowerment at Household Level Using DHS Data of Four Southeast Asian Countries

Women’s empowerment is important indicator for social development, yet there has not been a practical index on women’s empowerment at household level, especially for developing countries. Previous studies have suggested a theoretical framework of four components of women’s empowerment at household level: women’s labor force participation, women’s household decision-making, women’s use of contraception and women’s education. In this study, a measurement of women’s empowerment is developed using principal axis factoring with micro data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on four Southeast Asia countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines and Timor-Leste. The results has consistently found three factors including women’s labor force participation, women’s education and women’s household decision-making that affect individual women’s empowerment. Nevertheless, despite the literature suggested by other studies, very little evidence was found to support family planning use as one of the components of women’s empowerment in these countries. The new measurement also provides a solution for the problem of lacking household level data in current indices. More importantly, the construction of the measurement is practically applicable in more than 90 developing countries where the Demographic and Health Surveys are available.     

Residential location and youth unemployment: The economic geography of school-to-work transitions

In response to increased international policy attention to youth unemployment this study investigates post-secondary school transitions of school leavers. Multinomial logit models are estimated for male and female German youth. The models control for individual, parent, and household characteristics, for those of the youth's region of residence and local labor markets. The findings suggest that immigrant youth has particularly low participation rates in continued education, and that youth unemployment is centered in high unemployment states and metropolitan areas. More generous academic benefit policies seem to be correlated with increased academic enrollment, and men's transitions to the military do reflect recent changes in defense policies. Received: 30 November 1999/Accepted: 3 August 2000     

The Rise and Prominence of Skip-Generation Households in Lower- and Middle-Income Countries

Investigations into changes in household formations across lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rarely consider skip-generation households. Yet, demographic, social, and economic forces increasingly encourage skip-generation household formations. We examine trends and changes in the prevalence of skip-generation households from 1990 to 2016, examining households, adults aged 60+, and children under 15, across 49 countries using household roster data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Analysis takes place in stages, first describing trends in skip-generation households across countries and next providing explanatory analyses using multilevel modeling to assess whether, and the degree to which, country-level characteristics like AIDS mortality and female labor force participation explain trends in the probability that a household is, or that an individual resides in, a skip-generation household. Results indicate extensive increases in skip-generation households in many LMICs, although there is also variation. The increases and variations are not well-explained by the country-level characteristics in our models, suggesting other underlying reasons for the rise and prominence of skip-generation households across LMICs.     

Italian Quality of Life

The paper begins with a presentation of the quality of life in Italy as compared to other countries in the European Union. Several of the major socio-demographic and economic and life satisfaction (as revealed by the Eurobarometer survey) indicators are considered. Then, the Italian situation is discussed at greater length in the light of the transformations it has undergone in the past ten years. Thus it is possible to evaluate the following demographic themes: the profound process of aging; transformations in the family; and transformations in urban areas. The following economic themes are considered: the principal characteristics of the marketplace, in particular, the problem of unemployment; and household income and consumption. Finally, the time series of certain objective indicators are placed alongside those of life satisfaction.     

Introduction

The paper begins with a presentation of the quality of life in Italy as compared to other countries in the European Union. Several of the major socio-demographic and economic and life satisfaction (as revealed by the Eurobarometer survey) indicators are considered. Then, the Italian situation is discussed at greater length in the light of the transformations it has undergone in the past ten years. Thus it is possible to evaluate the following demographic themes: the profound process of aging; transformations in the family; and transformations in urban areas. The following economic themes are considered: the principal characteristics of the marketplace, in particular, the problem of unemployment; and household income and consumption. Finally, the time series of certain objective indicators are placed alongside those of life satisfaction.     

Household and Contextual Indicators of Poverty in Tunisia: A Multilevel Analysis

Using micro data from the 2010 National Survey on Households’ Budget, Consumption and Standard of Living, this study aims to investigate main factors contributing to poverty distribution, one of the most severe socioeconomic problems in Tunisia. To this end, we use a multilevel Logit model and a multilevel mixed linear model to simultaneously analyze the micro-level (household) and macro-level (governorate) factors that might affect the household poverty status. Household size, household composition, occupation, education levels, the gender of the household head and the number of earner by household variables were assessed at the micro-level. Unemployment rate, poverty rate, industrial and agriculture parts and the migration are included to control the effect of contextual effects. Our findings showed that the likelihood of household being poor is positively and significantly related to household size, more children and lower education level. Extreme poverty is more likely to occur in rural than urban areas. Macro-level analyses indicated that greater neighbourhood unemployment rate was associated with higher odds of poverty, while greater industrial agglomeration and migration balance were associated with reduced odds of poverty.     

Family household and nuptiality changes: a search for some explanations from the recent past

Using the demographic transition framework as a basis for analysis, the author examines the levels, trends, and differentials in household size and structure in the Philippines. Time-series data on average household size from the censuses show that the changes observed over time are closely associated with or have run parallel to the shifts in mortality and fertility. Data from the 1968, 1973, and 1983 National Demographic Surveys revealed small increases in 1-person households, modest increases in small-sized and moderate-sized households, and substantial decreases in large-sized households. The data also disclosed structural shifts among various types of family households. Between 1968 and 1983, family households experienced increasing nuclearization. While expectation for support in old age has somewhat diminished recently, parents' preference to join their daughters will have the effect of increasing the opportunity of females to head households. More highly educated persons exhibited a greater tendency to head the bigger-sized, extended family household, although this has diminished somewhat lately. Increases in the age at 1st marriage of both males and females affect the life span of family households, especially nuclear households. A multivariate analysis using macrolevel data as inputs demonstrated the very strong influences of the factors of desirability of marriage, availability of mate, and urbanization on the marriage pattern. Enhancing employment opportunities and creating appropriate mechanisms through which present incomes may be increased in the hinterlands under various rural development programs may help to diminish the values attached to children. The provision of more and better facilities for higher education especially in the disadvantaged provinces will enable young people, especially females, to gain access to higher learning, thus providing alternatives to early marriage and childbearing.     

Family leave policies and women's retention after childbirth: Evidence from the United States, Britain, and Japan

This paper uses labour force survey data to examine the employment rates and employment decisions of women with young children in the United States, Britain and Japan. Our results confirm that young children have a very strong negative effect on women's employment; this effect is most pronounced in Britain. We then take advantage of panel data to investigate the effects of family leave coverage on women's job retention after childbirth. We find that family leave coverage increases the likelihood that a woman will return to her employer after childbirth in all three countries, with a particularly marked effect in Japan. This result suggests that the recent expansions in family leave coverage in the sample countries are likely to lead to increased employment of women after childbirth. Received: 10 July 1997/Accepted: 8 June 1998